How will Gatwick station cope with a second runway?

[JonathanH]

Then have to think why do trains to/from Gatwick still terminate at places like Reading, Southampton, Bedford if there are lots of journeys from beyond. The only reasonable answer is historic.

No, the answer is reliability. Extending trains over a longer distance serves no real purpose, because these are natural traffic objectives, and the demand becomes more disparate beyond them.

 

[TattenhamCnr]

One thing perhaps missing from the discussion here though is the nature of the additional passengers; the airport has a strategy to build long-haul traffic.

It has been pretty successful at doing this with new flights to emerging destinations and secondary Chinese hubs since COVID, as well as additional frequencies to the Middle East.

I’ve no idea if the data exists, but I would expect that Victoria is still the most popular destination for inbound scheduled passengers. And the airport may feel that a four times an hour express service may help attract further carriers of a similar profile.

 

[cle]

Victoria is hardly a backwater. We get this on Paddington, but honestly. It has London's fastest tube connection (I would think the quickest journey from Gatwick to Euston, for instance) - as well as a high frequency east/west service - - - - - and a ton of jobs, leisure, government activity.

I think the Gatwick Express is not tenable, and Clapham calls are the easiest thing (along with uniform fares) - but trashing Victoria is not really the point. As a single destination, it's still the busiest, and the most frequent.

 

[etr221]

I recall a presentation, when Gatwick Express was new, by the then area manager at East Croydon at which he said it had changed his number one complaint from 'all these Gatwick passengers filling our trains with their luggage' to 'all these half empty Gatwick expresses wizzing through that we can't get on'.

My own thoughts are that it is Gatwick's great advantage to be on a main line - with lots of through services to many places - which is also it's great disadvantage, making it difficult to run a fast, dedicated express service into the centre.

So my view is keep the Gatwick Express, as a fast, dedicated airport service, to keep as many air passengers as possible off the 'ordinary' trains - it's the train to the taxi queue - and make Victoria THE London station for Gatwick (so move the overnight service back there) - but don't charge a premium fare, that gives you the worst of both worlds. But keep 'ordinary' trains stopping at Gatwick, for all those who aren't going to (or from) London.

 

[AlastairFraser]

I recall a presentation, when Gatwick Express was new, by the then area manager at East Croydon at which he said it had changed his number one complaint from 'all these Gatwick passengers filling our trains with their luggage' to 'all these half empty Gatwick expresses wizzing through that we can't get on'.

My own thoughts are that it is Gatwick's great advantage to be on a main line - with lots of through services to many places - which is also it's great disadvantage, making it difficult to run a fast, dedicated express service into the centre.

So my view is keep the Gatwick Express, as a fast, dedicated airport service, to keep as many air passengers as possible off the 'ordinary' trains - it's the train to the taxi queue - and make Victoria THE London station for Gatwick (so move the overnight service back there) - but don't charge a premium fare, that gives you the worst of both worlds. But keep 'ordinary' trains stopping at Gatwick, for all those who aren't going to (or from) London.

I broadly agree, but how do we convince the DfT to allow Gatwick Express as a non-premium service? You could keep First at a higher standard than current Gatwick Express First, and entice the crowds heading for London onto GX in Standard, but would it pay the TOC bills in the same way current GX does?

 

[hwl]

So my view is keep the Gatwick Express, as a fast, dedicated airport service, to keep as many air passengers as possible off the 'ordinary' trains - it's the train to the taxi queue - and make Victoria THE London station for Gatwick (so move the overnight service back there) - but don't charge a premium fare, that gives you the worst of both worlds. But keep 'ordinary' trains stopping at Gatwick, for all those who aren't going to (or from) London.

Returning GatEx to 4tph "as was" pre covid won't "keep as many air passengers as possible off the 'ordinary' trains" though.
The ordinary trains take the majority (~87% according to ORR) of modern Gatwick users where they want to go which isn't Victoria or via Victoria (and doesn't involve any taxis either).

As a personal case study it is 20minutes quicker via London Bridge (and at higher tph to both Gatwick and London Bridge in the first place so the average total journey time including waiting is also lower) than via Victoria, why would I ( or the majority of users) want to go via Victoria?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Aug 2026 ==

I broadly agree, but how do we convince the DfT to allow Gatwick Express as a non-premium service? You could keep First at a higher standard than current Gatwick Express First, and entice the crowds heading for London onto GX in Standard, but would it pay the TOC bills in the same way current GX does?

The biggest way to grow GatEx usage is having stops at East Croydon and Clapham but with high tph on the fast lines you can"t stop all services at those stations hence the CARS proposal pre covid to rebuild east croydona nd Norwood Jn.

The average airport (i.e. excluding station interchange) passenger usage (both getting off and boarding) on trains stopping at Gatwick is 181 passengers per train with an average of only 23 to / from Victoria).

 

[NCT]

It’s easy to forget Thameslink was the poor cousin on the Brighton Main Line. Crawling through Herne Hill on non air-conditioned and loud 319s. You were then dumped at stations with poor interchange options.

The Thameslink Programme then Crossrail completely changed that.

Long term ‘re-equalisation’ of the two routes will need Crossrail 2. In the shorter term the discounted Thameslink only fare really doesn’t make sense anymore - passengers are pocketing too much consumer surplus.

 

[hwl]

One thing perhaps missing from the discussion here though is the nature of the additional passengers; the airport has a strategy to build long-haul traffic.

It has been pretty successful at doing this with new flights to emerging destinations and secondary Chinese hubs since COVID, as well as additional frequencies to the Middle East.

I’ve no idea if the data exists, but I would expect that Victoria is still the most popular destination for inbound scheduled passengers. And the airport may feel that a four times an hour express service may help attrac

Gatwick's plan is focused on investment in short haul growth e.g. northern takeoff only runway for 2x 3hour blocks per day for A32x and 737 family aircraft with the extra north terminal gates and passenger facilities for short haul.
Long haul growth is based on back filling existing under utilised long haul capabiliy at the airport with no specific investment.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Aug 2026 ==

It’s easy to forget Thameslink was the poor cousin on the Brighton Main Line. Crawling through Herne Hill on non air-conditioned and loud 319s. You were then dumped at stations with poor interchange options.

The Thameslink Programme then Crossrail completely changed that.

The problem is that there are many who haven"t move on from the pre - London Bridge rebuild let alone pre - Crossrail era world.

They also may not have noticed TfL improvements to the Victoria line access with vastly extended walking distances. Hence Gatwick to Euston, Thameslink to StPancras is an attractive alternative as the walk is similar but 1 fewer change and on an always air conditioned train. It may take slighly longer bit is an easier less stressful journey.

 

[AlastairFraser]

The biggest way to grow GatEx usage is having stops at East Croydon and Clapham but with high tph on the fast lines you can"t stop all services at those stations hence the CARS proposal pre covid to rebuild east croydona nd Norwood Jn.

The average airport (i.e. excluding station interchange) passenger usage (both getting off and boarding) on trains stopping at Gatwick is 181 passengers per train with an average of only 23 to / from Victoria)

Say we invest in Croydon area remodelling and GatEx starts stopping at East Croydon/Clapham? What's to say that people will use it more with the premium fare?

 

[Snow1964]

The average airport (i.e. excluding station interchange) passenger usage (both getting off and boarding) on trains stopping at Gatwick is 181 passengers per train with an average of only 23 to / from Victoria).

Even the station to station data shows Gatwick to other London stations (direct services, not including connections) at about 4.3m journeys compared to Victoria's 2.7m

https://www.railwaydata.co.uk/odm/gbr/?dest=all&string_out=Gatwick+Airport+%5B5416%5D#google_vignette

That data is based on financial years and most recent is 16-28 months old, so tried to look at movement over last 3 years. Victoria has stagnated whilst other London stations are up around 20-30%

If this trend continues and it takes 2-3 years to completely revise the timetable, Victoria might be down below a quarter of journeys to London, and Thameslink (various stations in London) might be greater.

Say we invest in Croydon area remodelling and GatEx starts stopping at East Croydon/Clapham? What's to say that people will use it more with the premium fare?

The whole premium fares thing has become a farce since the decision to allow contactless and oyster to Gatwick from all London area stations, but virtually nothing (just a selected limited number of stations) going south on direct trains to destinations served like Portsmouth, Eastbourne, Eastbourne etc.

Charging a premium fare for regular trains on just part of their journey (just because the happen to serve the airport station) is just complicated madness when same train serves many other stations with different ticket rules (some combinations with oyster, some but not same with contactless, some with neither).

 

[hwl]

Say we invest in Croydon area remodelling and GatEx starts stopping at East Croydon/Clapham? What's to say that people will use it more with the premium fare?

As most of the uplifted use would involve Clapham Jn and East Croydon (mostly for interchange) so there won't be any real change in premium fare collection.

 

[cle]

The trains to Victoria today cannot go anywhere else. So what is the argument? We know that ideally GatEx would become part of Southern in terms of fare and stopping patterns. Might be 1-2 mins added for the calls, especially at Clapham.

But those same trains cannot go to London Bridge - nor should they, there are plenty there and Clapham Junction + Victoria is more valuable than London Bridge terminator (not into core).

 

[hwl]

The trains to Victoria today cannot go anywhere else. So what is the argument? We know that ideally GatEx would become part of Southern in terms of fare and stopping patterns. Might be 1-2 mins added for the calls, especially at Clapham.

But those same trains cannot go to London Bridge - nor should they, there are plenty there and Clapham Junction + Victoria is more valuable than London Bridge terminator (not into core).

Unfortunately if you maximise the tph on the fast lines through East Croydon and Clapham you cannot stop all of those services at either location, at least 2tph have to be non stopping at those stations. Hence the decision a long time ago to chose the GatEx servives to run fast through while both maximising the frequency as this helped create a more express like feel and it was thought that there would be fewer airport passengers wanting to change at CLJ and ECR (no longer as true as it was due to airport passenger changes).
Southern pre GTR tried to fill the GatEx fresh air expresses by extending 2tph to Brighton to fill up the space and relieve pressure on other services that did stop at ECR and CLJ.
Hence increasing the tph to Victoria back to former levels will not solve the lack of capacity to get passengers to Clapham Jn and East Croydon (mostly for interchange), a reasonable number would have no option but to use slower Southern to either or Thameslink to ECR.

 

[JonathanH]

Unfortunately if you maximise the tph on the fast lines through East Croydon and Clapham you cannot stop all of those services at either location, at least 2tph have to be non stopping at those stations. Hence the decision a long time ago to chose the GatEx servives to run fast through while both maximising the frequency as this helped create a more express like feel and it was thought that there would be fewer airport passengers wanting to change at CLJ and ECR (no longer as true as it was due to airport passenger changes).

What is the deal with this? At one time Gatwick Express went on the quarter hour, and a stopping train followed two minutes later which clearly doesn't allow both to go stop at Clapham Junction, but if it was possible to run the same trains at exact six minute intervals, is there a reason why they couldn't all stop? The flat junction on the fast lines at Windmill Bridge is clearly also a conflict, but again if the routes were paired in the timetable why couldn't trains run and stop every three minutes at East Croydon?

 

[cle]

What is the deal with this? At one time Gatwick Express went on the quarter hour, and a stopping train followed two minutes later which clearly doesn't allow both to go stop at Clapham Junction, but if it was possible to run the same trains at exact six minute intervals, is there a reason why they couldn't all stop? The flat junction on the fast lines at Windmill Bridge is clearly also a conflict, but again if the routes were paired in the timetable why couldn't trains run and stop every three minutes at East Croydon?

Agree. Surely evenning the intervals out to enable calls at Clapham Junction and East Croydon, and possibly dropping 1tph path as a sacrifice to do so (a path of a fresh-air GatEx) - is a better use of resources and more resilient.

Those trains could all run to Brighton, if pathable. If not, then the third could turn at Three Bridges. All would be 12 car, and it would give far more usable capacity to Gatwick (ie people would use all trains, vs avoid the GatEx ones).

It's worth 'losing' a GatEx path, to provide the additional calls, universally accessible capacity and consistency.

 

[AlastairFraser]

The whole premium fares thing has become a farce since the decision to allow contactless and oyster to Gatwick from all London area stations, but virtually nothing (just a selected limited number of stations) going south on direct trains to destinations served like Portsmouth, Eastbourne, Eastbourne etc.

Charging a premium fare for regular trains on just part of their journey (just because the happen to serve the airport station) is just complicated madness when same train serves many other stations with different ticket rules (some combinations with oyster, some but not same with contactless, some with neither).

Indeed, it should be abolished and GX retained as a brand for the rolling stock and services only (I'm aware it's already part of the TSGN franchise).

As most of the uplifted use would involve Clapham Jn and East Croydon (mostly for interchange) so there won't be any real change in premium fare collection.

So premium fares wouldn't be charged on GX from Croydon or Clapham Junction?

 

[brad465]

Does the North Downs' line have a lot of suppressed demand due to a 2tph frequency of 3-car services? If so and looking for capacity increase, I'd be looking at the following at least:

- 2tph Reading-Gatwick fast (5-6 car)
- 1tph Reading-Redhill all stations (3-car)

 

[NCT]

Unfortunately if you maximise the tph on the fast lines through East Croydon and Clapham you cannot stop all of those services at either location, at least 2tph have to be non stopping at those stations. Hence the decision a long time ago to chose the GatEx servives to run fast through while both maximising the frequency as this helped create a more express like feel and it was thought that there would be fewer airport passengers wanting to change at CLJ and ECR (no longer as true as it was due to airport passenger changes).

Not sure this is correct. GatEx services are pathed out through Clapham Junction as they are flanked by services that do call there.

It’s one minute dwell and 2 minutes reoccupation on those platforms (based on a sample of trains on RTT, I’m only on my phone so haven’t checked the rules properly), and since GatEx is some 3-minute headways in front and behind, there’s no problem including a call at Clapham Junction.

 

[Snow1964]

Does the North Downs' line have a lot of suppressed demand due to a 2tph frequency of 3-car services? If so and looking for capacity increase, I'd be looking at the following at least:

- 2tph Reading-Gatwick fast (5-6 car)
- 1tph Reading-Redhill all stations (3-car)

Yes, journey planners don't really like it as a route in a lot of cases, Reading has 7 minutes connection, so will offer connections of up 37 minutes. Using current next train as an example 08:25 it takes 90 minutes to get to Gatwick arriving 09:55, adding the connection time is 97-127 minutes

Needless to say most trains from west of Reading continue to Paddington, where journey planner sees Elizabeth line to Farringdon, then Thameslink to airport as faster option.

At certain times, when there is long wait for Gatwick train, the 75mins to Clapham Junction then a train to Gatwick also comes up, rather than North Downs.

The trains to Victoria today cannot go anywhere else. So what is the argument? We know that ideally GatEx would become part of Southern in terms of fare and stopping patterns. Might be 1-2 mins added for the calls, especially at Clapham.

As there are other trains every few minutes to Victoria, it is a shame no one could justify a single track flyover, from Scrubs Lane, North Kensington, into a high level island platform terminus above the new Old Oak Common Station. Imagine the connection opportunities if some Gatwick trains had called at Clapham Junction, along West London line through Kensington to the new mega-interchange at Old Oak Common. And before anyone says would never be possible, construction wise it would be a copy of how Barking Riverside was added (although platforms would be longer)

Had an Old Oak Common connection be done, would have been faster than the other routes from Reading.

 

[Mikey C]

The problem is that there are many who haven"t move on from the pre - London Bridge rebuild let alone pre - Crossrail era world.

They also may not have noticed TfL improvements to the Victoria line access with vastly extended walking distances. Hence Gatwick to Euston, Thameslink to StPancras is an attractive alternative as the walk is similar but 1 fewer change and on an always air conditioned train. It may take slighly longer bit is an easier less stressful journey.

Miniscule numbers though, in a modern world where people use Google Maps and other travel Apps to plan their journey.

And even if they had misguidedly booked the Gatwick Express, thinking that was the only way to and from the airport, they'd see a massive 12 car Thameslink train turn up while at Gatwick Airport station, going to lots of central London destinations, and remember for next time.

Away from trains, the obvious way to bump up the public transport percentage quickly is to improve the coach services. I was reminded of this while waiting at Stansted for the every 20 minutes A6 coach at 12:35am this morning. Coaches to Central London aren't an attractive option due to the awful A23, but there surely has to be scope for serving outer London better via the M25, plus the regional towns in Surrey and Kent. For example, it's ridiculous that there's no direct bus/coach from Sevenoaks, and that the best public transport option is to go via London Bridge.

 

[hwl]

Miniscule numbers though, in a modern world where people use Google Maps and other travel Apps to plan their journey.

I was talking about thread commentators not having moved on and being stuck in the past rather than real users who have moved on!

And even if they had misguidedly booked the Gatwick Express, thinking that was the only way to and from the airport, they'd see a massive 12 car Thameslink train turn up while at Gatwick Airport station, going to lots of central London destinations, and remember for next time.

Or the return journey - they learn that quickly you can hear it in their discussions while waiting...

Away from trains, the obvious way to bump up the public transport percentage quickly is to improve the coach services. I was reminded of this while waiting at Stansted for the every 20 minutes A6 coach at 12:35am this morning. Coaches to Central London aren't an attractive option due to the awful A23, but there surely has to be scope for serving outer London better via the M25, plus the regional towns in Surrey and Kent. For example, it's ridiculous that there's no direct bus/coach from Sevenoaks, and that the best public transport option is to go via London Bridge.

Buses /coaches are always the quickest and easier public transport to implement.

 

[AlastairFraser]

Away from trains, the obvious way to bump up the public transport percentage quickly is to improve the coach services. I was reminded of this while waiting at Stansted for the every 20 minutes A6 coach at 12:35am this morning. Coaches to Central London aren't an attractive option due to the awful A23, but there surely has to be scope for serving outer London better via the M25, plus the regional towns in Surrey and Kent. For example, it's ridiculous that there's no direct bus/coach from Sevenoaks, and that the best public transport option is to go via London Bridge.

Problem is that a lot of the areas you mention are more inclined to take a taxi direct from their door to the airport for convenience reasons, especially with large luggage.
Some sort of bookable airport shuttle system covering an area within 50 miles using large minibuses operated by a subsidiary of Gatwick wouldn't necessarily be a bad idea, if it was properly advertised.