TheManOnThe172
Member
- Joined
- 1 Aug 2014
- Messages
- 435
Does anyone else share my concerns that the Mini Switzerland scheme in Derbyshire isn't going to provide very useful learning in return for its £12m investment?
(Note - £12m, not the widely-quoted £6m, as page 32 of this document shows that the government's £6m is matched by £6m from the East Midlands Combined Council Authority).
Assuming that the spending does achieve an increase in multi-mode usage at Hope Valley stations (net of cannibalisation of usage via Buxton), what will that tell us?
It will have shown that more frequent, better-timed public transport (at a cost that would be unthinkable if scaled up for other rural areas) will attract additional use. (I think we already know that).
I trust that such an expensive scheme will collect good enough information that we will be able to separate how much of the increase comes from:
a) modal shift (car users who could have come by car but are attracted by the better timetabling to use public transport instead)
b) new journeys: people without use of a car who wouldn't otherwise have made the trip (valuable if you are Visit Peak District, and valuable if your are a government body aiming to improve quality of life, but not a "win" if your objective is reduction of pollution or congestion).
My fear is that a scheme that has been funded primarily on the basis of modal shift will in fact deliver plenty of quality-of-life benefit but precious little modal shift.
Think of the reality of a journey from where people live in Greater Manchester to the Peak District - a walk to a station, a local train to Piccadilly (at best, or to Victoria and then a tram across the centre), the wait for an hourly train, and then only to have decent connections to a very limited subset of places in the Peak District that are served by direct buses from the rail hub. Or get in the car and leave when you like and go where you like.
But even if it did achieve some useful modal shift, I am not sure that the Mini Switzerland results will be very replicable elsewhere - because the timetabling challenge for the Hope Valley is a limited (and distinctly special) case.
Trains in the two directions pass each other at Hope station, so you can offer tight connections in both directions with buses that call just once per hour. Bamford is only a little less balanced. So the Mini Switzerland scheme has half of the challenge that would face a more typical case where trains from the dominant source called at say 20 past the hour, and trains back called at 40 past the hour. In Switzerland that is typically handled - expensively - by having a bus meet the dominant flow (towards town in the morning, back in the evening) with 4- or 9-seat DRT handling the other flow. But Mini Switzerland doesn't face that challenge.
And coordinated timetabling falls apart if your passengers want to go somewhere that isn't on a direct service from the rail-bus hub. They are going to need to change from a bus service optimised for connections at that hub, to a second bus that is (at best) going to be optimised for connections somewhere else.
A Manchester visitor to Haddon Hall near Bakewell may arrive in Bakewell on a bus that neatly linked with a train at Hope or Hathersage. But the change onto a subsequent bus is likely to involve a much less elegant timing - that bus would be on a route timed to make rail connections at Buxton or Matlock.
So this £12m seems to be great for those in the Hope Valley. Some of those will now use public transport to Sheffield or Manchester where they previously drove. But there aren't that many people in or near the Hope Valley - perhaps 6,000 (the population of the whole Peak District is only about 30,000).
And it seems great as a quality-of-life improvement for those in Manchester or Sheffield without a car who will now be able to make less-difficult public transport journeys to the Peak District.
But what about the professed purposes of the scheme?
Making a meaningful reduction in Peak District traffic? No
Acting as a model for schemes elsewhere? Hardly.
(Note - £12m, not the widely-quoted £6m, as page 32 of this document shows that the government's £6m is matched by £6m from the East Midlands Combined Council Authority).
Assuming that the spending does achieve an increase in multi-mode usage at Hope Valley stations (net of cannibalisation of usage via Buxton), what will that tell us?
It will have shown that more frequent, better-timed public transport (at a cost that would be unthinkable if scaled up for other rural areas) will attract additional use. (I think we already know that).
I trust that such an expensive scheme will collect good enough information that we will be able to separate how much of the increase comes from:
a) modal shift (car users who could have come by car but are attracted by the better timetabling to use public transport instead)
b) new journeys: people without use of a car who wouldn't otherwise have made the trip (valuable if you are Visit Peak District, and valuable if your are a government body aiming to improve quality of life, but not a "win" if your objective is reduction of pollution or congestion).
My fear is that a scheme that has been funded primarily on the basis of modal shift will in fact deliver plenty of quality-of-life benefit but precious little modal shift.
Think of the reality of a journey from where people live in Greater Manchester to the Peak District - a walk to a station, a local train to Piccadilly (at best, or to Victoria and then a tram across the centre), the wait for an hourly train, and then only to have decent connections to a very limited subset of places in the Peak District that are served by direct buses from the rail hub. Or get in the car and leave when you like and go where you like.
But even if it did achieve some useful modal shift, I am not sure that the Mini Switzerland results will be very replicable elsewhere - because the timetabling challenge for the Hope Valley is a limited (and distinctly special) case.
Trains in the two directions pass each other at Hope station, so you can offer tight connections in both directions with buses that call just once per hour. Bamford is only a little less balanced. So the Mini Switzerland scheme has half of the challenge that would face a more typical case where trains from the dominant source called at say 20 past the hour, and trains back called at 40 past the hour. In Switzerland that is typically handled - expensively - by having a bus meet the dominant flow (towards town in the morning, back in the evening) with 4- or 9-seat DRT handling the other flow. But Mini Switzerland doesn't face that challenge.
And coordinated timetabling falls apart if your passengers want to go somewhere that isn't on a direct service from the rail-bus hub. They are going to need to change from a bus service optimised for connections at that hub, to a second bus that is (at best) going to be optimised for connections somewhere else.
A Manchester visitor to Haddon Hall near Bakewell may arrive in Bakewell on a bus that neatly linked with a train at Hope or Hathersage. But the change onto a subsequent bus is likely to involve a much less elegant timing - that bus would be on a route timed to make rail connections at Buxton or Matlock.
So this £12m seems to be great for those in the Hope Valley. Some of those will now use public transport to Sheffield or Manchester where they previously drove. But there aren't that many people in or near the Hope Valley - perhaps 6,000 (the population of the whole Peak District is only about 30,000).
And it seems great as a quality-of-life improvement for those in Manchester or Sheffield without a car who will now be able to make less-difficult public transport journeys to the Peak District.
But what about the professed purposes of the scheme?
Making a meaningful reduction in Peak District traffic? No
Acting as a model for schemes elsewhere? Hardly.