Cross-country overcrowding: what could be done?

[Harpo]

Again, that is a matter of what connections can be prioritised. If everything were able to run half hourly, almost all connections would be made within half an hour.

I don’t see a 30 something minute connection as remotely efficient. They’re the epitome of operational convenience over service. Get two of those in a journey (before and after the core XC bit for example) and that’s an extra hour added to a journey that will likely struggle to beat the road equivalent

 

[Krokodil]

The choice of where gets direct trains to where (other than London or obviously close pairings) is almost entirely a result of operating decisions at one time or another. The case for a through service from Totnes to Chesterfield, for example, is probably not much stronger than for one from Honiton to Buxton. The choice is really between offering lots of “one-off” through trains as in BR cross-country days or a standard repeating pattern with more changing, where some people are “lucky” because their journey is still direct, but many others aren’t.

If Totness lost its through services to Chesterfield, I'm sure that you'd struggle to find many people to object, there are only 200-odd tickets sold for that flow per year. What about Manchester to Bristol? Some posters on here would have that split at Birmingham, using 350/2s to cover the electrified section, improving capacity at the expense of through journeys. Around 150k passengers per annum would be affected by that split, just counting those going from the three stops south of Birmingham to the six stops north, not considering anyone with onward journeys once off of XC.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Aug 2026 ==

I don’t see a 30 something minute connection as remotely efficient. They’re the epitome of operational convenience over service. Get two of those in a journey (before and after the core XC bit for example) and that’s an extra hour added to a journey that will likely struggle to beat the road equivalent

In a 30 minute frequency network, most connections won't be 30 minutes.

 

[JonathanH]

I don’t see a 30 something minute connection as remotely efficient. They’re the epitome of operational convenience over service. Get two of those in a journey (before and after the core XC bit for example) and that’s an extra hour added to a journey that will likely struggle to beat the road equivalent

No, but, to take one example, if CrossCountry arrives in Leeds from Birmingham at xx05 and LNER arrives from London at xx21 and xx51, trains for Ilkley, Skipton and Harrogate can't all perfectly connect with both services. Passengers for Ilkley have 28 minutes off the Birmingham train and 12 minutes off the London trains.

 

[The Ham]

I don’t see a 30 something minute connection as remotely efficient. They’re the epitome of operational convenience over service. Get two of those in a journey (before and after the core XC bit for example) and that’s an extra hour added to a journey that will likely struggle to beat the road equivalent

Typically, it's assumed that a connection on a half hourly service would average at 15 minutes.

That's because, the likelihood is that not all connections would take 30 minutes, in the same way it's unreasonable to assume they would all only take 2 minutes.

Anyway, unless a journey is short, it's not uncommon for journey time estimates on route planning sites to suggest a typical range for a journey which could easily be more than 25% more than the shortest journey time.

As an example leaving at 15:00 to drive between Exeter St David's and Bristol Temple Meads gives a journey time of between 90 minutes and 150 minutes (up to 66.67% longer).

Obviously most people will not experience the longest journey time nor will they experience the shortest. A lot will likely see a journey of between 90 minutes and 110 minutes, however for something which was important to be on time for (catching a plane, going to a wedding, etc.) most would leave over 140 minutes to be sure to be on time.

 

[Tetragon213]

This morning I met a group travelling from Chesterfield to Glasgow. Should be by CrossCountry to Edinburgh with simple change in Edinburgh? 2 trains

They'd chosen East Midlands to Warrington Central, taxi to Warrington Bank Quay then Avanti to Glasgow Central, also 2 trains. I didn't check their lines of reasoning but they seemed to know what they were doing. Timings? Pricing?

Pricing is usually paradoxically better going via Warrington. I have used a similar itinerary to go from Sheffield to Glasgow in the past.

Also, some of us are willing to pay a couple of extra bob, to ensure we actually get a seat on our journey and don't spend 5 hours twisted like a pretzel in a vestibule. Speaking of hours, somehow XC takes an extra half hour to do that journey direct, versus TPE and AWC who require either changing at Manchester Oxford Road or a walk across Warrington. 30 minutes is not an inconsiderable amount of time.

 

[Snow1964]

Just realised that ORR have now changed their P-code reports and can select period in a dropdown.

Cross country cancellations as published 8.8%
including P-code is 11.1%. (1 in 9)

P-coded cancellations | ORR Data Portal

Am I being really thick, but if don't want crowding on a train following a cancelled one, then putting more effort into not cancelling one train in nine would be a good start.

And if the best they can muster, due to lack of crews etc, is only 8 in 9 trains operating, then they should be able to allocate a lot of that 11% of their fleet sitting around due to cancellations to double up the following train. At the very least couple the stock for train that didn't start to next single unit leaving the depots.

 

[zwk500]

And if the best they can muster, due to lack of crews etc, is only 8 in 9 trains operating, then they should be able to allocate a lot of that 11% of their fleet sitting around due to cancellations to double up the following train. At the very least couple the stock for train that didn't start to next single unit leaving the depots.

XC require a guard in both units, so if the issue is staffing then they'd need to lock the 2nd unit out of use, making it rather pointless to run the longer train. But you'd still need to pay the extra mileage costs for running the unit.

If the issue is only drivers and there is a spare guard, then yes in theory they could attach the unit on, but it would presumably require amending or rewriting the guard diagrams, which may not be particular feasible on an ad-hoc basis.

 

[AndrewE]

XC require a guard in both units, so if the issue is staffing then they'd need to lock the 2nd unit out of use, making it rather pointless to run the longer train. But you'd still need to pay the extra mileage costs for running the unit.

If the issue is only drivers and there is a spare guard, then yes in theory they could attach the unit on, but it would presumably require amending or rewriting the guard diagrams, which may not be particular feasible on an ad-hoc basis.

but only if there is a driver there (in the right place) at the right time to move the additional unit...

 

[zwk500]

but only if there is a driver there (in the right place) at the right time to move the additional unit...

I understood the proposal to be to form the train up as a double set on the depot. But yes, it's never just as simple as 'chuck it on'.

 

[Harpo]

Cross country cancellations as published 8.8%
including P-code is 11.1%. (1 in 9)

A breakdown of XC would be useful but I’ve not been able to find one. The Cardiff - Nottingham service seems to be particularly disposable.

 

[Snow1964]

A breakdown of XC would be useful but I’ve not been able to find one. The Cardiff - Nottingham service seems to be particularly disposable.

ORR only shows P-code for the 6 operators that use it, and the extra 2.3% from 8.8% to 11.1% cancelled is for XC overall (not by route), ORR most recent is period 3 (haven't yet added period 4)

XC do break their figures into two, strangely called inter-city and inter-regional (even though they both serve cities). I think it is basically a split of voyager routes and class 170 routes.

Can't split out just Cardiff-Nottingham, but the inter-regional (class 170 routes) is (2 most recent periods 3 and 4)

On time 46.7% and 42.6% (so less than half)
Within 3 mins (industry standard) 67.8% and 62.4%
cancellations 8.8% and 8.1% (before adding P-code)
cancellations by XC (no non-XC reasons) 7.0% and 4.7%

Key Business Performance Indicators | CrossCountry Trains

Discover CrossCountry's train performance, including delays and cancellation rates, passenger satisfaction, and complaints.

www.crosscountrytrains.co.uk

 

[Bread & cheese]

Reading had 4 northbound XC services in a row cancelled today, each because of shortage of drivers.

Image shows screenshot from Real Time Trains, showing that the departures at 0815, 0851, 0915 and 0943 were all cancelled.

 

[cle]

Is the Macclesfield turn due to disruption and sending trains back down south sooner?

 

[The exile]

If Totness lost its through services to Chesterfield, I'm sure that you'd struggle to find many people to object, there are only 200-odd tickets sold for that flow per year. What about Manchester to Bristol?

Liverpool to Bristol? Leicester to Bristol? Manchester to Brighton?

Of course Manchester to Bristol is a strong flow, but there are plenty of other potentially strong flows which have either never existed or no longer exist because of the accidents of railway geography. The ideal is of course where flow demand and operational convenience coincide (as with Manchester to most places it’s connected to)

 

[Krokodil]

Liverpool to Bristol? Leicester to Bristol? Manchester to Brighton?

Of course Manchester to Bristol is a strong flow, but there are plenty of other potentially strong flows which have either never existed or no longer exist because of the accidents of railway geography. The ideal is of course where flow demand and operational convenience coincide (as with Manchester to most places it’s connected to)

I suggested Manchester to Bristol because despite it being a strong flow, it's often put forward on this forum as one to split on operational grounds. Believe it or not, some aspects of the railway are still organised with passengers in mind.

 

[mjc]

South coast-Manchester services, one delayed due to overcrowding because of an event and two others, on different routes, delayed due to passengers causing a disturbance. Full moon today?

 

[NCT]

I suggested Manchester to Bristol because despite it being a strong flow, it's often put forward on this forum as one to split on operational grounds. Believe it or not, some aspects of the railway are still organised with passengers in mind.

A subset of passengers to the detriment of other passengers.

 

[Kite159]

Return of punters from a music festival at Winchester?

(In relation to post 1066)

 

[Krokodil]

A subset of passengers to the detriment of other passengers.

It's not the fault of Manchester-Bristol passengers that 20 years of SRA/DfT etc. have refused to provide XC with the resources it needs (i.e. proper length units).

 

[Bletchleyite]

It's not the fault of Manchester-Bristol passengers that 20 years of SRA/DfT etc. have refused to provide XC with the resources it needs (i.e. proper length units).

It is quite remarkable that a problem caused by the errors of Virgin Trains nearly thirty years ago and entirely predictable in its effects has still not been fixed.

 

[amahy]

It is quite remarkable that a problem caused by the errors of Virgin Trains nearly thirty years ago and entirely predictable in its effects has still not been fixed.

In that case, I have the perfect solution to XC’s overcrowding issues:

Charge Richard Branston for a full new fleet of 5/7 car bi-mode XC trains!

 

[Harpo]

Is the Macclesfield turn due to disruption and sending trains back down south sooner?

XC in the far past has turned at many odd places to have two part capes rather than one full cape at times when cancellation rates were under scrutiny.

 

[route101]

I took a cross country service last weekend. The 0648 from Glasgow Central which was a 4 car set until Edinburgh where a 5 car was added. Are these booked?

Yes, I believe that is booked. The 0748 from Glasgow Central is usually a five coach set.

 

[Snow1964]

I suggested Manchester to Bristol because despite it being a strong flow, it's often put forward on this forum as one to split on operational grounds. Believe it or not, some aspects of the railway are still organised with passengers in mind.

Using Origin - Destination matrix

Bristol Temple Meads - Manchester 46,274
Cardiff - Manchester 41,360
Cheltenham - Manchester 17,022
Bristol Parkway - Manchester 16,025
Newport, Wales - Manchester 11,976
Exeter St David's - Manchester 6575
Bath Spa - Manchester 6353
Plymouth - Manchester 3217

Obviously some will be travelling beyond and have tickets to other stations not in above quick list.

But looking at over 3000 per week travelling from South-West / South East Wales to Manchester alone.

https://www.railwaydata.co.uk/odm/gbr/?dest=all&string_out=Manchester+Piccadilly+%5B2968%5D

The only operational reason to split it is the wiring gap from Bromsgrove to Yate / Severn Tunnel Junction and Filton Bank (and fast lines near Longbridge). XC fleet is diesel only, but that decision was from different energy price era about 28 years ago when a train order was placed, even if it is inappropriate today.

 

[Oxfordblues]

Return of punters from a music festival at Winchester?

(In relation to post 1066)

Yes indeed. Boomtown finished last night so it's going-home day for the survivors (I speak as a veteran!)

 

[daodao]

Using Origin - Destination matrix

Bristol Temple Meads - Manchester 46,274
Cardiff - Manchester 41,360
Cheltenham - Manchester 17,022
Bristol Parkway - Manchester 16,025
Newport, Wales - Manchester 11,976
Exeter St David's - Manchester 6575
Bath Spa - Manchester 6353
Plymouth - Manchester 3217

Obviously some will be travelling beyond and have tickets to other stations not in above quick list.

But looking at over 3000 per week travelling from South-West / South East Wales to Manchester alone.

https://www.railwaydata.co.uk/odm/gbr/?dest=all&string_out=Manchester+Piccadilly+%5B2968%5D

In the late 1980s, the North and West main line was reinstated as the principal route for passenger rail travel between South Wales and Manchester, with essentially hourly through trains. Therefore, the figures for travel between these places no longer need to be considered when assessing the desirability of retaining through trains from Manchester to Bristol and South West England using the former Midland main line via Cheltenham Spa.

 

[Mike Machin]

In that case, I have the perfect solution to XC’s overcrowding issues:

Charge Richard Branston for a full new fleet of 5/7 car bi-mode XC trains!

Branston? Is he the chap responsible for the pickle in which Cross-Country finds itself?

 

[MattyN67856]

Why is Nottingham - Cardiff so unreliable and prone to crew shortages compared to Birmingham -Leicester -STN?

 

[LowLevel]

Why is Nottingham - Cardiff so unreliable and prone to crew shortages compared to Birmingham -Leicester -STN?

It relies on New Street crews which seems to have more staffing difficulties.