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Reopenings - the positive narrative the railway industry needs !

yorksrob

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Someone should perhaps tell the railway then that the world is changing, working in an office is becoming rarer, central office blocks are being repurposed or even demolished for lack of use (in the less desirable left behind regions) and where it happens at all, you are legallly entitled to flexible hours where reasonable (unlike in a shift/industrial setting). Oh, and good luck ramping up the frequency on the Ashington line. It's been desinged and built as a single track with few passing places.

And how exactly do you expect the railway to respond when you tell them this ?

It runs to the city centre - which seems a pretty popular option, in spite of changes to working practices.

It runs all day long, which assists people with flexible hours.

Ok, it might be difficult to increase from half hourly, however that's a perfectly reasonable frequency for commuting and leisure. Would increased frequency even be needed if working in an office is becoming rarer ?

These all seem increasingly off-topic assertions as to why the industry shouldn't promote the success of this very popular project.
 
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Zomboid

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No rail project can solve everyone's transportation needs, but things like Ashington can and do make it easier for people to get around, both directly for those who use the train and indirectly.

I've no idea what Newcastle city centre is like for redevelopment etc, but passenger numbers do seem to suggest that a decent number of people from the Ashington & Blyth area want to go there for one reason or another, and find a half hourly service using 158s sufficiently enticing to use it.
 

Magrar

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I've already explained what probably lies behind the success of the Northumberland Line. The usefulness of taxi and rail apps not being factored in by forecasters.

It won't change the fact it is what it is in the main. A slightly better option for car owners, without removing their need for a car, mainly to take them away from the suburbs of these decimated fomer industrial towns to their pre-existing work places, likely non-industrial, and which are and continue to be elsewhere, until they are eventually closed in favour of hybrid or even full WFH. Which they can do, because they're already the better off residents of these towns.

Shout about it all you want. It's the diametric opposite of all current public policy and general trends.
 

Killingworth

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Early days for statistics but according to Railway Data (https://www.railwaydata.co.uk/ ) 59,956 travelled between Ashington and Newcastle in 2024/5, see; https://www.railwaydata.co.uk/odm/gbr/?dest=all&string_out=Ashington [7608] That was by far the most popular destination as you'd expect.

Seaton Delaval into Newcastle scored a healthy 32,696 as the well filled car park evidences, see; https://www.railwaydata.co.uk/odm/gbr/?dest=all&string_out=Seaton Delaval [9235]

The 2025/6 and 2026/7 figures will tell us more now that all the stations are open.
 

SynthD

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Someone should perhaps tell the railway then that the world is changing

It's the diametric opposite of all current public policy and general trends
Can you better define where things are going? The railway and wider world can’t adapt to unknowable things. Downplaying the success of a reopening seems to be a distraction from pointing out the future that could be freed from remaking suburbs the way they were. In the meantime, for the present, this reopening was the right choice, precisely because of reasons including that it serves car owners.
The usefulness of … rail apps not being factored in by forecasters.
What does this mean?
 

Killingworth

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I've already explained what probably lies behind the success of the Northumberland Line. The usefulness of taxi and rail apps not being factored in by forecasters.
That certainly is a big factor. A recent feasibility study for additional car parking at my local station took virtually no account of the numbers using taxis and family/friends drop off and pick up. Careful observation of users indicated that 19% of commuters were dropped off and 1% came by taxi against 46% parking. (30% walked, 3% cycled and 1% interchanged with the 3 bus routes stopping outside the station.)

Those figures were in 2019. Monitoring of train service performance on the many apps that are now available means such drop offs and pick ups are now more closely matched to train performance - we're currently in the bottom 200 nationally for punctuality!
 

The exile

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That sounds like a big problem but I don't think it is really.

The vast majority (75%+) of short distance trips are already made by walking. If driving takes up only 20 to 25% of those short distance trips I don't think there's much scope to reduce it that much further. A good number of those will be unavoidable - carrying something heavy, doing the shopping, disability, infirmity etc.

The other big thing is that once you take into account the distance of trips, rather than the headline number, the problem disappears - less than 1 in 200 car-miles involve trips of under a mile. So even if you did somehow manage to get all those trips shifted to active modes you're not denting road traffic by any significant amount.
The thing is, though, that those short trips tend by nature to be overwhelmingly in busy areas and are going to include the largest number of “avoidable journeys”.
 

Egg Centric

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Yet you're happy to live in a world where a civil servant can basically say, well, you can drive and you can afford a car, so sorry, there shall be no bus service to get you to all the decent jobs which are now in edge of town locations, and that's just the socially fair, cost-benefit thing to do I am afraid.

Pretty much, yes.We can't have public transport from everywhere to everywhere else. If someone is genuinely unable to drive then that is one thing but bloody-mindedly expecting society to put on buses and trains for them when so many other things need paying for is quite another.

It is not. There are no excuses now. We all know the costs to the environment, economy and public health of a high dependency on cars. It long ago ceased to be a lifestyle choice. Most people will keep taking what is by now clearly the selfish choice, until policy is put into actual practice.
It's precisely because we know them that we can pass them on to the car driver in the form of various taxes and let them decide.

The thing is there around 1 in 12 trips made by car are under 800m.

Whist there'll be some of those which are needed (the trip is part of a longer journey, people unable to walk or cycle that far or buying a lot of shopping or similar) there'll also be a lot which are just because the person has the mindset of "I'm leaving my house so I'll get in the car" (even if they don't think that, it's what they do).

At 800m there's only a small time saving in driving over walking (10 minutes) as whist journey planners is likely to say driving is around 2 minutes with no congestion the extra time needed to get in the car, start it, manoeuvre, and the reverse at the other end is likely to add 2 or 3 minutes.

Likewise, depending on where the car can be parked the walk distance may be up to 1/3 of the distance of walking the whole distance.

It's why, in urban areas, it might be more useful to have a congestion charge (daily charge) to discourage some of these trips.

As I've said before, the goal is to get and reduce by up to 10% the milage undertaken by car, as if we reached that level we could see traffic congestion reduce significantly.

As a 10% reduction is what is seen in the morning peak on the school holidays vs term time (obviously not tourist areas) and for most people they would rather have those journeys all year round.

As I've also highlighted, the cost of excess car use extends beyond just the road maintenance costs.

There's significant spending by government in trying to fix many factors which could be reduced if there was less driving including:
- health (mental and physical)
- congestion
- social cohesion
- flooding
- cooling off urban areas

(The latter two likely to be achieved by not needing so much parking and so more green spaces can be created, even if that's a few extra trees along a street).

In my dream world the way to deal with this would be exposing drivers to riding a cycle, a motorbike, and if they're legal an e-scooter (plus also a van and HGV) as part of their mandatory-every-decade retest and training (we'd be needing this because my dream world also abolishes speed limits). This exposure every so often would I think remind many people just how good fun cycling is and act as a bit of a carrot.

Unfortunately for many reasons my dream world can't exist and is therefore not a serious proposal, but some other way of getting people to cycle more just to get used to it and therefore pick it would be super welcome. Getting paid to cycle maybe? Say £5 for beginning a journey over a mile and 20p per mile thereafter?

No way am I encouraging people onto buses until the average bus driver is better, they just don't seem to understand they need to minimise the 4th derivative of distance over time...
 

martin butler

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In an ideal world, Rail reopenings should be seen as a way to get people out of their cars, and onto trains, so any scheme should also include other public transport additions to make driving less the first choice, such as feeder bus services, from outlying areas direct to the station, timetabled to connect with rail services, and combined bus/ train tickets,
 

quantinghome

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The thing is, though, that those short trips tend by nature to be overwhelmingly in busy areas and are going to include the largest number of “avoidable journeys”.
Not sure about that. Given 75-80% of those journeys are already done by foot I would argue the reverse - most people only use a car for a short "avoidable" journey if it's NOT busy. If it is busy, you're not going to use the car for a short journey unless there's a good reason for it, or you really really don't like walking.

It would be interesting to see the actual stats but my hunch (based in part on my own car use) is that most of these short journeys tend to happen outside peak times in the suburbs.
 

Dr Hoo

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Not sure about that. Given 75-80% of those journeys are already done by foot I would argue the reverse - most people only use a car for a short "avoidable" journey if it's NOT busy. If it is busy, you're not going to use the car for a short journey unless there's a good reason for it, or you really really don't like walking.

It would be interesting to see the actual stats but my hunch (based in part on my own car use) is that most of these short journeys tend to happen outside peak times in the suburbs.
I’d also be interested in how ‘car trips’ works for multi-leg journeys. Several families that I know have a routine such as: Home to drop young child at nearby nursery; second leg to drop older child at school for breakfast club; third leg to drop dog at day care; fourth leg to work, where there may be a few client visits during the day; repeat in evening, possibly with extra leg to pick up some food.
Other variants with partner to/ from station, music practice, sports training, checking up a lonely relative, etc. are available.
Not sure that those cycle clips are much use any more.
 

Sonic1234

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I'm not entirely convinced that running mediocre train services and taxing people off the road to fill them (as several people on here are seeming to suggest) is real progress.
We should be aiming to make transport easier by all modes. Transport is the engine of the economy, enables leisure, discovery and civic engagement. You can find plenty of people who have never visited the major UK cities or tourist areas because of the high cost and/or difficulty of getting there, or on a more local level don't know the next town to theirs or a local historic site but can tell you all about a resort in Spain or Turkey.
 

Egg Centric

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I’d also be interested in how ‘car trips’ works for multi-leg journeys. Several families that I know have a routine such as: Home to drop young child at nearby nursery; second leg to drop older child at school for breakfast club; third leg to drop dog at day care; fourth leg to work, where there may be a few client visits during the day; repeat in evening, possibly with extra leg to pick up some food.
Other variants with partner to/ from station, music practice, sports training, checking up a lonely relative, etc. are available.
Not sure that those cycle clips are much use any more.

OTOH I have a neighbour who regularly drives under 800 yards to the pub (in a 600 bhp 4 litre RS7!) which is ridiculous on a number of levels. So it definitely does happen.

I suspect in our case us living on a hill has something to do with it.

It's not doing any harm to anyone else though (I don't believe him to be drink driving) so if he wants to that's up to him.
 

ox_chap

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Someone should perhaps tell the railway then that the world is changing, working in an office is becoming rarer, central office blocks are being repurposed or even demolished for lack of use (in the less desirable left behind regions) and where it happens at all, you are legallly entitled to flexible hours where reasonable (unlike in a shift/industrial setting). Oh, and good luck ramping up the frequency on the Ashington line. It's been desinged and built as a single track with few passing places.
Yes, but in some ways, flexible hours can really help the railway. It spreads out the previous peaks across more trains, so avoiding overcrowding. Or, if trains were previously lengthened in the peaks, we can get away from rolling stock sitting idle for much of the day, only being used in the former "rush hours".

It can also develop new markets. In my city, Oxford, there is sometimes a new peak around 11 am, widely attributed to home workers getting bored and heading into town to get a coffee. Although admittedly, that is more for the bus network.
 

Zomboid

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not doing any harm to anyone else though (I don't believe him to be drink driving) so if he wants to that's up to him.
I think that's debatable when it comes to a 600hp V8. Much as I like such things, I'm not sure they could honestly be called harmless to the rest of the world.

Though for such a short journey I guess it doesn't make a huge difference between that a charged-off-solar EV.
 

Egg Centric

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It’s such a shame that the most local form of government has to be the most hated one.

Ironically in my particular case I've got great local councillors, all of whom I've met and most of whom I know enough to be on nodding terms with. But I think that's quite unusual.

Nevertheless despite them being sincere folk, some of them suffer from the usual councillor disease - NIMBYism. Out here in the sticks, well, whatever. I do find it pretty funny them whinging about solar farms on spurious grounds and then 10 seconds later whinging about their own pet projects like a solar walk having to go through planning permission... pick a side and stick to it. I remain of the view that 99 times out of 100 if you own the land unless you're in a national park or AONB (and we're only a few miles from one) build what the heck you want on it and certainly you don't need every tiny little thing scruitinised and even if you did aesthetically the idea of a council complaining about your proposed solar farm because they think the business model doesn't make sense... well wtf is this overreach?

But either way I'm very fortunate to live somewhere where the parish council are a group of independents and the county councillor we had a choice (ignoring the ones who couldn't win) of two excellent, moderate, well liked local candidates and were one of the very few seats in County Durham that didn't elect Reform - we went for a Labour one with the incubment Tory not far behind and Reform a distant third (incidentally for all the problem with Reform a lot of the Reform councillors in Durham are not lunatics either, although some are). So I don't have some massive problem with local government in general and certainly in my own case I feel very able to reach out to my representatives.

But that doesn't change what a typical local councillor is like when they start messing with transport (or housing). Moan moan moan ban ban ban. Cause that's what they're incentivised to do. And at a certain psychological level with councillors you're dealing with two different psychological mechanisms. Small 'c' conservatism - don't bloody change anything. And small 's' socialism - change everything for the good of society cause you know best. Both awful things for a small 'l' liberal (in Gladstonian sense) like me...
 

Magrar

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Pretty much, yes.We can't have public transport from everywhere to everywhere else. If someone is genuinely unable to drive then that is one thing but bloody-mindedly expecting society to put on buses and trains for them when so many other things need paying for is quite another.
Everywhere to everywhere is your straw man invention.

We can't have what we need, even though the planet is literally burning and kids in the North East are at a disadvantage from birth, precisely because of this warped attitude about car ownership, particulary this idea that a new line in Ashington of all places, should be more of the same that's failed us for decades now.

Your attitude to tax means only the richest will ever be able to avoid the inconvenience of socially and environmentally beneficial transport modes.

What other things need paying for, that your policy on cars isn't already making more expensive? Asthma alone, costs the NHS a massive amount. This epidemic of anxiety in the young? That's definitely coming from the widening gulf between those who can (because they are a multi-car family) and those who can't (because they own one or none). Etc etc.

More cars is not the answer. Better transport is.
 

The exile

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Not sure about that. Given 75-80% of those journeys are already done by foot I would argue the reverse - most people only use a car for a short "avoidable" journey if it's NOT busy. If it is busy, you're not going to use the car for a short journey unless there's a good reason for it, or you really really don't like walking.

It would be interesting to see the actual stats but my hunch (based in part on my own car use) is that most of these short journeys tend to happen outside peak times in the suburbs.
The school runs don’t, for a start. otherwise, I’d agree to a certain extent - but only in as far as people will think twice about using the car for a short journey “now” if the congestion (ie stationary traffic) is evident as they go out to the car.
 

quantinghome

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The school runs don’t, for a start. otherwise, I’d agree to a certain extent - but only in as far as people will think twice about using the car for a short journey “now” if the congestion (ie stationary traffic) is evident as they go out to the car.
Living on a road with a school on it, can confirm.

However I think the school run is a 2-3 mile problem rather than a 1/2 mile problem. It seems to be a far bigger issue at secondary schools than primaries, secondary schools having a much wider catchment area.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

There are no excuses now. We all know the costs to the environment, economy and public health of a high dependency on cars. It long ago ceased to be a lifestyle choice. Most people will keep taking what is by now clearly the selfish choice, until policy is put into actual practice.
I'd be interested to know what you believe the best possible public transport policy would achieve in practice.

I've looked at countries' model share of public transport. Excluding city states and developing countries in order to get a sensible comparison with the UK, Japan manages 36% public transport modal share, Austria around 25%, Switzerland 22%. I was surprised at the Netherlands where it's only 15%.

This tells us that even if we improved our public transport to be among the best in the world, cars will still take up 60%+ modal share. Of course we should look to maximise public transport's share but it's not going to replace the car. What it will do is make it easier to get around and between towns and cities.
 
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eldomtom2

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I'd be interested to know what you believe the best possible public transport policy would achieve in practice.

I've looked at countries' model share of public transport. Excluding city states and developing countries in order to get a sensible comparison with the UK, Japan manages 36% public transport modal share, Austria around 25%, Switzerland 22%. I was surprised at the Netherlands where it's only 15%.

This tells us that even if we improved our public transport to be among the best in the world, cars will still take up 60%+ modal share. Of course we should look to maximise public transport's share but it's not going to replace the car. What it will do is make it easier to get around and between towns and cities.
It is worth noting here that public transport has a munch higher modal share in London compared to the other cities of the UK. So aiming for e.g. Birmingham or Manchester to have public transport modal share similar to London does not seem an unrealistic goal.
 

Egg Centric

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What other things need paying for, that your policy on cars isn't already making more expensive? Asthma alone, costs the NHS a massive amount. This epidemic of anxiety in the young? That's definitely coming from the widening gulf between those who can (because they are a multi-car family) and those who can't (because they own one or none). Etc etc.

Asthma - legit to put a decent degree of blame on cars probably, although very much a solvable problem.

Anxiety in the young - frankly climate alarmism is just as plausible an explanation as inequality*. Not that I think it's either - later births and heavy screen usage seem far more likely to me.

*I agree we have multi dimensional inequality problems
 

Severnia333

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I think the lower hanging fruit is getting other medium to large cities up to the level of Birmingham/Manchester/Glasgow. Bristol and Leeds being the obvious targets for investment in new stations/infrastructure/services/ some sort of light rail.

Some smaller cities/ big towns on junctions where less used lines go through them could also follow the Exeter model.
It is worth noting here that public transport has a munch higher modal share in London compared to the other cities of the UK. So aiming for e.g. Birmingham or Manchester to have public transport modal share similar to London does not seem an unrealistic goal.
 

The exile

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Asthma - legit to put a decent degree of blame on cars probably, although very much a solvable problem.

Anxiety in the young - frankly climate alarmism is just as plausible an explanation as inequality*. Not that I think it's either - later births and heavy screen usage seem far more likely to me.
Having those inequalities and everyone else’s apparent perfection shoved in yer face permanently by social media won’t help.
 

Egg Centric

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Having those inequalities and everyone else’s apparent perfection shoved in yer face permanently by social media won’t help.

Yes (even sillier when a lot of said perfection is transparently to us cynical adults nonsense). I should probably have ordered the screentime and later births the other way around, it's definitely the former that seems most damaging. But the inequalities now are nowt compared to say the Edwardian era and the kids weren't all anxious back then, so labelling it an inequality issue is missing the point imo.
 

Bald Rick

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It is worth noting here that public transport has a munch higher modal share in London compared to the other cities of the UK. So aiming for e.g. Birmingham or Manchester to have public transport modal share similar to London does not seem an unrealistic goal.

Whilst I agree with the principle, the issue for the non-London cities is basically history and geography. They are (much) smaller city centres, and Birmingham in oarticualr has a very well developed road network much closer into the city centre than London. Even then, the City council has done a great job over the last 35 years of removing significant chunks of that road network in the city. But it is much, much easier to drive from, say, Aston to Great Barr or Handsworth to Longbridge than it is to drive similar distances in inner suburban London
 

William3000

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Everywhere to everywhere is your straw man invention.

We can't have what we need, even though the planet is literally burning and kids in the North East are at a disadvantage from birth, precisely because of this warped attitude about car ownership, particulary this idea that a new line in Ashington of all places, should be more of the same that's failed us for decades now.

Your attitude to tax means only the richest will ever be able to avoid the inconvenience of socially and environmentally beneficial transport modes.

What other things need paying for, that your policy on cars isn't already making more expensive? Asthma alone, costs the NHS a massive amount. This epidemic of anxiety in the young? That's definitely coming from the widening gulf between those who can (because they are a multi-car family) and those who can't (because they own one or none). Etc etc.

More cars is not the answer. Better transport is.
Absolutely - I agree 100% with you. 40% of people don’t own cars and that figure is rising among young people. We need more trains, more trams and light rail, more buses, more active travel, and fewer cars!
 

Egg Centric

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Absolutely - I agree 100% with you. 40% of people don’t own cars

Idk about "people" but that figure is wayyyyyy too high when it comes to households.

and that figure is rising among young people.
Yes, because of the generational inequality issues I think we all agree exist (amongst other reasons; uber would be another but is no reason for making car usage troublesome; another would be the increasing infantilisation of young people see also the anxiety thing; another the increase insurance prices; another the lack of accessible bangers and cheap cars being a bit boring these days... there are others)

We need more trains,

Definitely!
more trams and light rail,

Probably!
more buses,

Meh
more active travel,

Yup
and fewer cars!
Nooooooooooooooo
 

BayPaul

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I'm finding this discussion really interesting. I think the point I most agree on is that cities are not great places for cars, and that a great aim should be to bring the modal share of other cities up towards London levels. As Bald Rick said, driving in Birmingham is easier than in London, but that doesn't mean that you couldn't attract people out of their cars with a significantly better public transport system. That probably means a lot of miles of tram tracks, maybe tram trains to better use existing heavy rail lines, better segregation of intercity and metro services, probably some kind of crossrail scheme etc. Very, very expensive, but would transform lives and invigorate cities, allowing swathes of busy streets to be pedestrianised.

Getting back to the question - that's why for my mind 'reopenings' are rarely the right answer or something to shout about, as they tend to be little rural single track branch lines operated by 2 carriage sprinters every hour. I wouldn't have thought that Okehampton has made a single household give up their car, as rural rail can never be flexible enough for that.

A new urban metro line, with a ten minute frequency and easy connections to a network similar lines to cheaply and efficiently whisk you around the city for work or leisure... Now I'm sold. Portishead and Blyth have elements of this, but it'd be even better if they could be part of a wider coordinated plan of major network and frequency enhancements.
 

The exile

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Getting back to the question - that's why for my mind 'reopenings' are rarely the right answer or something to shout about, as they tend to be little rural single track branch lines operated by 2 carriage sprinters every hour. I wouldn't have thought that Okehampton has made a single household give up their car, as rural rail can never be flexible enough for that.
Far too early to call - people don’t make decisions like that in a matter of months or even a couple of years. With a car it’ll tend to come at replacement time. A far more significant measure in the case of semi-rural transport improvements is the number of households that drop / don’t ever buy the second car - again, a slow, long-term development. But either way, that’s not the only measure of success.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Portishead and Blyth have elements of this, but it'd be even better if they could be part of a wider coordinated plan of major network and frequency enhancements.
I wouldn’t necessarily call it major but Metro West is doing precisely that - just at a rate that makes it easy to forget that it is a current project.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

You can find plenty of people who have never visited the major UK cities or tourist areas because of the high cost and/or difficulty of getting there, or on a more local level don't know the next town to theirs or a local historic site but can tell you all about a resort in Spain or Turkey.
Or in lots of cases, the perceived cost /difficulty of getting there.
 
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