The Labour Party under Andy Burnham

[Richard Scott]

Johnson only became Prime Minister because Mummy and Daddy bought it for him.

Whatever you thought of him he was still an intelligent person. I personally wasn't a fan but I can't call him stupid as he wasn't.

 

[brad465]

Johnson only became Prime Minister because Mummy and Daddy bought it for him.

If there is an equivalent of "Nepo baby" for relatives who used another family member's fame to enhance their own, but is not a child of that family member, that would apply to Boris Johnson's dad, sister and brother. We may also find one day that there are Johnson nepo babies, given he's had dozens of children so far for all we know.

 

[Djgr]

He was good at making people believe in his ideas. Unfortunately the ideas in question were pretty terrible.

He was not a man for detail!

 

[Harpo]

Whatever you thought of him he was still an intelligent person. I personally wasn't a fan but I can't call him stupid as he wasn't.

Intelligent, definitely, but to get the highest office in the land and then think that the usual requirements of honesty, integrity and truthfulness aren’t needed? Stupidity fits.

Whereas Boris had charisma without integrity, Starmer was the opposite. Back to today, does Burnham have both?

 

[Bantamzen]

For once I think Farage and Reform UK are trying to avoid being in the spotlight right now

The thing is Farage is nothing without the spotlight. He's really painted himself into a corner, wants the attention, but doesn't want the scrutiny.

And this is what I think Burnham's early strategy is, get a few fairly "easy" wins in like the fare cap. Yes it has to be funded, but there's plenty of scope for that going forward, it's the big hitting policies that he's yet to bring to the fore that will need a the very least a major reshuffle in priorities.

However these wins are just taking a bit more wind out of Reform's sails, they can't exactly object to them other than the generic "not thought through" level of criticism, they don't even cross into Reform's one and only concern, i.e. immigration so they can't generate any faux rage over them. It's clever, and although it is very early days it is working.

 

[martin butler]

Andy Burnham, clearly is a more astute leader, than Starmer was, Hit reform by cutting off their oxygen, rather than trying to pander to voters, who will never vote for you anyway, measures like ending VAT on fuel bills, the £2 cap on bus fares, it all helps with chipping away at the appeal, plus Reform in local government should give Labour more than enough ammunition to expose what they really are,

 

[JamesT]

Andy Burnham, clearly is a more astute leader, than Starmer was, Hit reform by cutting off their oxygen, rather than trying to pander to voters, who will never vote for you anyway, measures like ending VAT on fuel bills, the £2 cap on bus fares, it all helps with chipping away at the appeal, plus Reform in local government should give Labour more than enough ammunition to expose what they really are,

Though all the cuts announced so far are temporary as far as I'm aware. It will be interesting to see what choices they make when their time is up if the budget is still under pressure.

 

[brad465]

The thing is Farage is nothing without the spotlight. He's really painted himself into a corner, wants the attention, but doesn't want the scrutiny.

And this is what I think Burnham's early strategy is, get a few fairly "easy" wins in like the fare cap. Yes it has to be funded, but there's plenty of scope for that going forward, it's the big hitting policies that he's yet to bring to the fore that will need a the very least a major reshuffle in priorities. However these wins are just taking a bit more wind out of Reform's sails, they can't exactly object to them other than the generic "not thought through" level of criticism, they don't even cross into Reform's one and only concern, i.e. immigration so they can't generate any faux rage over them. It's clever, and although it is very early days it is working.

I think this is too. If Burnham can force Farage to cut and run, then I can see him calling an election to take advantage of Reform UK's infighting and the Tories still being tarnished by their previous spell of government, while seeking a mandate for some of his own stuff.

 

[Djgr]

I think this is too. If Burnham can force Farage to cut and run, then I can see him calling an election to take advantage of Reform UK's infighting and the Tories still being tarnished by their previous spell of government, while seeking a mandate for some of his own stuff.

What would be the point?

 

[styles]

Though all the cuts announced so far are temporary as far as I'm aware. It will be interesting to see what choices they make when their time is up if the budget is still under pressure.

Are they?

I imagined the bus fare cap was permanent for example.

I know the VAT cut on energy bills is just for 6 months, not sure if it will become a permanent measure.

 

[JamesT]

Are they?

I imagined the bus fare cap was permanent for example.

I know the VAT cut on energy bills is just for 6 months, not sure if it will become a permanent measure.

£2 bus fares from January 2027

Single bus fares in England to be capped at £2 for 2027.

www.gov.uk

I wish to inform the House that the government is today (22 July 2026) announcing single bus tickets will be capped at £2 in England outside London from 1 January until 31 December 2027.

The original bus cap was also temporary and ended up being extended repeatedly, but there's no guarantees.

 

[Snow1964]

Are they?

I imagined the bus fare cap was permanent for example.

The previous £2 cap was deemed too expensive so was raised, fairly good chance same thing will happen again

I know the VAT cut on energy bills is just for 6 months, not sure if it will become a permanent measure.

There were all sorts of levies too (and they act much same way as VAT, added to bill, so are virtually a tax with another name). I think before the cut in April, including the 5% VAT was nearer 16% if include the levies).
That is lot of money to give away long term.

Andy Burnham, clearly is a more astute leader, than Starmer was, Hit reform by cutting off their oxygen, rather than trying to pander to voters, who will never vote for you anyway, measures like ending VAT on fuel bills, the £2 cap on bus fares, it all helps with chipping away at the appeal, plus Reform in local government should give Labour more than enough ammunition to expose what they really are,

Although it wasn't shown much on national news, his interview (shown on local TV news) when he launched the £2 bus cap in Bath included him voluntarily saying he had picked South West because some only see him as representing the North, but the move from London Centric includes South West. So I think he is more astute and perhaps wary of Lib Dem's in South West too. I can't remember Starmer or Boris travelling to South West much (if at all)

 

[styles]

£2 bus fares from January 2027

Single bus fares in England to be capped at £2 for 2027.

www.gov.uk

The original bus cap was also temporary and ended up being extended repeatedly, but there's no guarantees.

Yes they tend to "trial" things but like the bus fare cap, they often get made permanent. Alright it was raised to £3 but it's still a popular policy standing on its original principles from when it was introduced in 2023. Maybe Burnham will revert it to £3 at some point but I'd be surprised if he scrapped it.

 

[gg1]

What would be the point?

Same reason any other PM calls an early election, they think they will win. I don't see it happening this year but next year is a possibility.

I firmly believe Reform have peaked in terms of polling and expect to see their support slowly ebbing away. That just leaves the Tories led by the terminally clueless Badenoch.

The main risk for Labour if they leave it until 2029 is the Tories replacing Badenoch with someone competent.

 

[AlterEgo]

Same reason any other PM calls an early election, they think they will win. I don't see it happening this year but next year is a possibility.

I firmly believe Reform have peaked in terms of polling and expect to see their support slowly ebbing away. That just leaves the Tories led by the terminally clueless Badenoch.

The main risk for Labour if they leave it until 2029 is the Tories replacing Badenoch with someone competent.

Agreed with all of this. Reform are a busted flush and will fade over the coming couple of years.

 

[Howardh]

Agreed with all of this. Reform are a busted flush and will fade over the coming couple of years.

Looking at the poll of polls over the past year, Reform have appeared to lose 1/4 of it's support since last October - they were certainly above 30% at one stage, now hovering around 23%. Some, of course, have moved to that other right-wing party and I can't remember their name and I couldn't be bothered looking it up!

It does look like Five Million Farage has become a liability rather than a plus, but remove him and the party's nothing but washed-up Tories (who may soon be begging to return to the Tories).

Graph of Reform's declining popularity (and all the other major parties) https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/

 

[Bantamzen]

Same reason any other PM calls an early election, they think they will win. I don't see it happening this year but next year is a possibility.

I firmly believe Reform have peaked in terms of polling and expect to see their support slowly ebbing away. That just leaves the Tories led by the terminally clueless Badenoch.

The main risk for Labour if they leave it until 2029 is the Tories replacing Badenoch with someone competent.

Indeed, Reform have been banking on a GE whilst they held the lead in the polls, and both Labour & the Conservatives had slumped to some of their lowest levels in living memory.

They probably hoped for / expected the local elections in May to be so catastrophic for both parties that a GE was inevitable, and even if they didn't get an overall majority (which I suspect they would not have), they could form a collation & be the dominant party for at least one term. Then Burnham happened...

What he has done well is to shift the focus away from just the topics, well topic that Reform wanted to keep the public laser focused on, and at least give some indication that he was listening to ordinary folk's grievances, cost of living being right up there as one of the big ones.

OK the measures thus far are relatively lightweight, and may not be permanent, but it is at least a small move in the right direction. If Burnham can keep the momentum up for another year or so, Reform will slide away into nowhere, and potentially give Labour the breathing space to go to the polls and return another 5 years.

Of course this does mean Burnham is going to have to be squeaky clean, and keep on delivering improvements. Not an easy task in the current climate.

But unlike Starmer, I do think he has enough about him to read the room and act accordingly. And I'm not just saying that because he's due at any time to arrive at his Northern office a couple of hundred metres away from mine...

Looking at the poll of polls over the past year, Reform have appeared to lose 1/4 of it's support since last October - they were certainly above 30% at one stage, now hovering around 23%. Some, of course, have moved to that other right-wing party and I can't remember their name and I couldn't be bothered looking it up!

It does look like Five Million Farage has become a liability rather than a plus, but remove him and the party's nothing but washed-up Tories (who may soon be begging to return to the Tories).

Graph of Reform's declining popularity (and all the other major parties) https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/

Yeah I've been watching these figures for some time now, and it's clear that whilst Reform's support isn't falling off a cliff, it seems to be on an reversible slump with the difference between them and the two main parties now only 3 or 4 points down from a dozen or more at one point.

I can't honestly see anyway back for them either, with their only asset now a big liability. I suspect you are right in thinking that the ex-Tories might at this moment be fishing for a way back to their old haunt.

 

[gg1]

Looking at the poll of polls over the past year, Reform have appeared to lose 1/4 of it's support since last October - they were certainly above 30% at one stage, now hovering around 23%. Some, of course, have moved to that other right-wing party and I can't remember their name and I couldn't be bothered looking it up!

It does look like Five Million Farage has become a liability rather than a plus, but remove him and the party's nothing but washed-up Tories (who may soon be begging to return to the Tories).

Graph of Reform's declining popularity (and all the other major parties) https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/

One of the big positives to take from that graph is their decline isn't merely down to them losing support to the right. Even the combined Reform/Restore polling is still notably lower than peak Reform.

 

[Djgr]

The main risk for Labour if they leave it until 2029 is the Tories replacing Badenoch with someone competent.

Well they failed for the last 15 years.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Same reason any other PM calls an early election, they think they will win. I don't see it happening this year but next year is a possibility.

I firmly believe Reform have peaked in terms of polling and expect to see their support slowly ebbing away. That just leaves the Tories led by the terminally clueless Badenoch.

The main risk for Labour if they leave it until 2029 is the Tories replacing Badenoch with someone competent.

Badenock stock has steadily increased since she became leader and currently if I was Andy Burnham I'd be expecting her to be there come 2029. This from https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/55228-political-favourability-ratings-july-2026 so yes still negative compared to Burnham who is +3 but she compares well now to Ed Davey (-8) and Farage (-46) and Polanski (-26) both of whose stock is falling.

 

[Sorcerer]

I'll be honest, even though I'm not too pleased about Andy Burnham becoming Prime Minister through being parachuted specifically for the purpose of challenging Keir Starmer, I think the best thing to do now is just get on with the job rather than call an election.

It might be easy to forget, but Labour have a massive majority, and calling an election would risk reducing it down to a number which, while still manageable, would mean they might not be able to pass as many big changes.

Truth is, I just don't see Burnham really boosting Labour's numbers significantly enough to neuter the right-wing parties within a year.

 

[gg1]

Well they failed for the last 15 years.

Fair point

I'll rephrase that to either competent or charismatic.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Jul 2026 ==

Badenock stock has steadily increased since she became leader and currently if I was Andy Burnham I'd be expecting her to be there come 2029. This from https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/55228-political-favourability-ratings-july-2026 so yes still negative compared to Burnham who is +3 but she compares well now to Ed Davey (-8) and Farage (-46) and Polanski (-26) both of whose stock is falling.

View attachment 208192

Genuinely surprised her favourabilty is going up. On a number of occasions she's demonstrated an inability to read the room, the one that sticks in my mind is when in the early stages of Trump and Netanyahu's attacks on Iran, she suggested Britian should become more actively involved.

 

[brad465]

I think Badenoch's ratings have improved because the camera's have been off her. Starmer resigning, Burnham taking over, and Farage imploding under the weight of dodgy crypto dealings have all seen her get less attention, which has the bonus of giving her a boost just by way of rivals declining. This may change though once she's back in the spotlight more.

 

[najaB]

I think Badenoch's ratings have improved because the camera's have been off her. Starmer resigning, Burnham taking over, and Farage imploding under the weight of dodgy crypto dealings have all seen her get less attention, which has the bonus of giving her a boost just by way of rivals declining. This may change though once she's back in the spotlight more.

This is the key. People don't rate politicians in isolation but rather in comparison. How often do people say "I'd rather have a [X] government than a [Y] government!"?

 

[Thirteen]

I think the Conservatives need a bit longer out of office and also to win key political landgrabs like the London Mayor before they can think of regaining Number 10.

 

[Merle Haggard]

Posters here are talking about the VAT cut on energy bills.
I thought it was just on electricity, am I mis-informed?. Anecdotally I spend much more on gas during the Winter and a reduction in that would be more welcome.

 

[SargeNpton]

I think the Conservatives need a bit longer out of office and also to win key political landgrabs like the London Mayor before they can think of regaining Number 10.

On the other hand, they just need Labour to be completely incompetent for three years and all the other "opposition" parties to suffer scandals and ludicrous manifestos.

This might seem a remote chance but stranger things have happened.

 

[gabrielhj07]

On the other hand, they just need Labour to be completely incompetent for three years and all the other "opposition" parties to suffer scandals and ludicrous manifestos.

This might seem a remote chance but stranger things have happened.

Labour just need to behave as the tories did in office, and the next election will be a re-run of the last, just with the colours swapped.

 

[edwin_m]

Posters here are talking about the VAT cut on energy bills.
I thought it was just on electricity, am I mis-informed?. Anecdotally I spend much more on gas during the Winter and a reduction in that would be more welcome.

I believe just electricity. That also helps the climate agenda to some extent, by encouraging people to switch from gas.

 

[PGAT]

Labour just need to behave as the tories did in office, and the next election will be a re-run of the last, just with the colours swapped.

It won't be as simple next time as the two party system has died. I would be shocked if there was not a hung parliament with an almost unworkable coalition.