TfW potential future rolling stock procurements

[Class 323 Fan]

Before you can at me saying “it’s too early to speculate” it’s just ideas and thoughts that may happen in a future.


If TfW do eventually decide to replace their Class 67 and Mark 4 Coaching Stock on their current Manchester - South Wales, what do you reckon they would replace it with?

I think that they should order 15-20 (might to too many, I’m not a fleet allocator) 6 Carriage Bi or Tri Mode Multiple Units for the Manchester to South Wales and I also think it’s necessary for Manchester Airport to North Wales.

Maybe something similar to the Class 897s, which could be maintained at Chester if they were CAF made and the Chester Maintainance depot could be extended to accommodate these new trains

If I’m being honest the 197s weren’t the best idea, being diesel, if I was TfW, I would be transferring these to Northern and get a fleet of Bi-Mode CAFs because CAF has obviously got a maintenance depot in Chester, so it would make sense operationally, but that’s unlikely for the foreseeable.

 

[D365]

Maybe something similar to the Class 897s, which could be maintained at Chester if they were CAF made and the Chester Maintainance depot could be extended to accommodate these new trains.

Is there any need for TfW’s Mk4 replacements to be 125mph capable?

 

[The Planner]

Is there any need for TfW’s Mk4 replacements to be 125mph capable?

If its an off the shelf solution that fills the criteria for the route, I don't see what the issue is.

 

[EveningStarr]

Whatever they get, be it loco hauled or multiple unit, it needs to match or exceed the comfort and experience of the MkIVs. They are by far the best sort of train in TfW on that front, especially for long journeys. Whatever they go with, there should be enough to cover most if not all Holyhead and Manchester services, rather than the current 5 diagrams or whatever it is. Whilst I don't think the 197s are as bad as some think, they certainly aren't comfortable on long journeys, especially without the buffet.
I am still in favour of loco-hauled, despite its perceived antiquity by some, but the smooth and quiet ride of a MkIV is way better than the clunkiness and noise from a 197.

So, how do MkVs compare to MkIVs? Might they be an option? I have never tried those, although I hear there have been some structural issues? If they are in any way similar and can be configured with a kitchen and comfortable seats, I'd want them for TfW.

 

[DS25]

Id want something that can operate near to all or all South Wales - Manchester/Holyhead routes and have spares for other routes which could do with strengthening, with seats like the MK4’s comfort wise unless the exact same ones could be used, which i doubt

I also think the ride quality should be good, unlike the awful ones of the 197. Maybe something similar to the new Enterprise trains (FLIRT200) could be used, or 5/6/7 car 897’s to keep Stadler or CAF consistency.

 

[3RDGEN]

The 10th October 2025 TfW Rail Board meeting minutes, "https://tfw.wales/about-us/transparency/our-company-boards/tfw-rail-ltd-board/minutes-2025" detail that:

The Mk IV fleet replacement, (Redacted) , will be deferred by extending asset life and exploring new locomotives.

So overhaul of the MkIV sets and find some decent loco's was the plan last October, may of changed since then with the new Welsh Assembly Government?

 

[43096]

The 10th October 2025 TfW Rail Board meeting minutes, "https://tfw.wales/about-us/transparency/our-company-boards/tfw-rail-ltd-board/minutes-2025" detail that; "The Mk IV fleet replacement, (Redacted) , will be deferred by extending asset life and exploring new locomotives.".

So overhaul of the MkIV sets and find some decent loco's was the plan last October, may of changed since then with the new Welsh Assembly Government?

There's eight Class 68s off lease currently...

 

[EveningStarr]

The 10th October 2025 TfW Rail Board meeting minutes, "https://tfw.wales/about-us/transparency/our-company-boards/tfw-rail-ltd-board/minutes-2025" detail that; "The Mk IV fleet replacement, (Redacted) , will be deferred by extending asset life and exploring new locomotives.".

So overhaul of the MkIV sets and find some decent loco's was the plan last October, may of changed since then with the new Welsh Assembly Government?

Modern locos most likely then (unless they do new builds) would be classes 68, 88, 93 and 99? And wrong as it would be, 66s have been known to work passenger trains, and there's plenty of them knocking about.

Future proofing, TfW would be wise to go with a bi-mode then. Might they even consider expanding the MkIV fleet too, once LNER retires its remaining sets? Space and maintenance would be a constraint here, but one can dream...

 

[Ash Bridge]

The 10th October 2025 TfW Rail Board meeting minutes, "https://tfw.wales/about-us/transparency/our-company-boards/tfw-rail-ltd-board/minutes-2025" detail that; "The Mk IV fleet replacement, (Redacted) , will be deferred by extending asset life and exploring new locomotives.".

So overhaul of the MkIV sets and find some decent loco's was the plan last October, may of changed since then with the new Welsh Assembly Government?

So perhaps class 68s could be the best option subject to availability, and perhaps improving reliability by at least 50%?

 

[Rail Quest]

Modern locos most likely then (unless they do new builds) would be classes 68, 88, 93 and 99? And wrong as it would be, 66s have been known to work passenger trains, and there's plenty of them knocking about.

So perhaps class 68s could be the best option subject to availability, and perhaps improving reliability by at least 50%?

The 68s could be a pretty good short-term solution. I can't see why DRS will need all of the non-Chiltern locos for their own services. Do the TfW MK4 DVTs use AAR to control the 67? If so, the ex-Chiltern MK3-hauling 68s may already be compatible.

The 99s could be an interesting medium-term solution, depending on how long the MK4s will last. I don't personally see the drop in Diesel power in the 99s compared with the 67s as a deal-breaker. The at-rail power difference should be less substantial than the engine outputs.

As for the longer term, the rolling stock manufacturing scene will probably change somewhat between now and whenever TfW consider the MK4s life expired. I just hope the replacements are very comfortable, as the MK4s are just so nice to travel on IMO.

 

[Class 323 Fan]

As for the longer term, the rolling stock manufacturing scene will probably change somewhat between now and whenever TfW consider the MK4s life expired. I just hope the replacements are very comfortable, as the MK4s are just so nice to travel on IMO.

As for the longer term, it would make more sense to procure brand new BMUs, makes sense reliability wise, but comfort has got to be on point, no cutting corners. As this is apparently their most profitable route, which is why it’s so premium.

 

[Snow1964]

I would have thought something like a multi-mode version of a 444 is what would be ideal, but configured with 2+1 First class seating (not the latest 444 spec).

Not high speed like 8xx series. 100mph on diesel, 110mph on 25kv would be sufficient. Basically a regional train with sufficient comfort for 3+ hour journeys, but able to accommodate a bit of commuting too (rather than a local or commuter configuration that ends up doing long journeys with little comfort and ambience)

5 or 6 cars with the intermediate cars with low floor and level boarding. If that means can't fit enough underfloor diesel power then a power car could be 6th vehicle

 

[Torfaen]

Or does TfW need a new fleet of long-distance units to replace Mk4s and 197s on the S Wales to Manchester route, thereby releasing enough 197s to cover new and additional services?

While the Mk4s are very comfy they can't have too many years left in them, and 197s are not ideal for the route. It would be good to have a consistent fleet with first class and catering which could also make use of electric traction when under the wires.

 

[Peter Sarf]

I appreciate that it wouldn't be without it's challenges but that does seem the obvious solution i.e. increase capacity where it's needed

Perhaps an alternative location for maintaining 197s would be anywhere where staff availability would be easy.
(not saying there is a labour shortage in Chester btw but just opening it out a bit).
Preferably not so close to Chester so coverage of servicing/maintenance of 197s for Wales generally is a bit better.

 

[Northerngirl]

Or does TfW need a new fleet of long-distance units to replace Mk4s and 197s on the S Wales to Manchester route, thereby releasing enough 197s to cover new and additional services? While the Mk4s are very comfy they can't have too many years left in them, and 197s are not ideal for the route. It would be good to have a consistent fleet with first class and catering which could also make use of electric traction when under the wires.

I think this is the way they should go, get enough 879s to cover Swansea Manchester, and then the 197s can far better cover the existing routes while haveing a better premium ic service

 

[Bletchleyite]

The Mk4s are proper old tat. So yes I'd agree that some 5 car (or FLIRT equivalent) intercity style units for the proper long distance stuff would be a good idea, and they could order enough to work all the Manchester-South Wales intercity style services to cascade 197s to more local services and to strengthen the North Wales Coast.

 

[Harpo]

The mark 4s are a great aspirational statement. Any replacement needs to be of similarly high quality and not more of the awful 197s.

 

[Caaardiff]

A 5 car (E.G Class 800 or CAF equivalent) fleet to provide a consistent hourly Swansea - Manchester service, replacing the Mk4's and freeing up a number of 197's.

New 4 car Stadler Flirts for Bristol - West Wales (4-6 units)
New 4 car Stadler Flirts for Cardiff - Pembroke Dock (4 units)

2 car 197's to replace the 153's on the Heart of Wales line (5 units)

Remaining 197's freed up to move up North to strengthen Cambrian/Llandudno Junction/Birmingham, Holyhead - Manchester, Liverpool - Llandudno services.

 

[DS25]

I think something similar to Stadler's new Enterprise trains in Ireland might work for Swansea - Manchester and maybe Cardiff - Holyhead as well.

 

[mmh]

Always amusing how often this idea that South Wales to Manchester is TFW's sole long distance route comes up on here.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Always amusing how often this idea that South Wales to Manchester is TFW's sole long distance route comes up on here.

It's their main intercity style route (sort of) in terms of usage patterns that doesn't require short units for reasons of portion working. You could use intercity style units on Aberystwyth but then you would need Pwllheli to be a connection which wouldn't be popular. Cardiff to North Wales is potentially the other one but I suspect that has a lot of passenger turnover at intermediates, I'd question the level of actual demand for going to Cardiff from North Wales given the reality of the economy of Wales.

 

[The exile]

It's their main intercity style route (sort of) in terms of usage patterns that doesn't require short units for reasons of portion working. You could use intercity style units on Aberystwyth but then you would need Pwllheli to be a connection which wouldn't be popular. Cardiff to North Wales is potentially the other one but I suspect that has a lot of passenger turnover at intermediates, I'd question the level of actual demand for going to Cardiff from North Wales given the reality of the economy of Wales.

And, of course, the other two principal axes (North Wales Coast and S Wales Main Line) have their InterCity style services provided by others, although Holyhead- Manchester could probably justify more IC-style stock.

 

[Caaardiff]

Always amusing how often this idea that South Wales to Manchester is TFW's sole long distance route comes up on here.

The marches is their most profitable and growing route, already has the mk4 setup, and connects the capital of Wales to the biggest city in the North with no other operators on the route.

Cardiff to Holyhead doesn't have the same demand
Aberystwyth/Pwllheli to Birmingham requires double units.
Holyhead to Manchester has the potential to then all be 4-5 car 197s, as regardless about routes, TFW won't be getting rid of 197s so needs to use them to boost capacity somewhere.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Holyhead- Manchester could probably justify more IC-style stock.

Questionable I'd say. It's a medium distance regional express.

 

[Zomboid]

It's their main intercity style route (sort of) in terms of usage patterns that doesn't require short units for reasons of portion working. You could use intercity style units on Aberystwyth but then you would need Pwllheli to be a connection which wouldn't be popular. Cardiff to North Wales is potentially the other one but I suspect that has a lot of passenger turnover at intermediates, I'd question the level of actual demand for going to Cardiff from North Wales given the reality of the economy of Wales.

There's Birmingham to North Wales, too. Though that's really more of a regional service.

It's probably not ridiculous to say that South Wales to Manchester is TfWs only real intercity service.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Funny how people think money grows on trees in Wales.
TfW has been very fortunate in being able to replace virtually its entire fleet in the last few years, and has picked up extra funding which probably should have gone to other sectors (notably health and education).
I haven't seen much of Plaid's rail policy but they face the same funding issues as before.
I could possibly see TfW hanging on to its 158s a while longer than planned, but new stock seems well out of reach to me.
TfW has to deploy its existing fleets to their planned potential first, before asking for more.

 

[Harpo]

Questionable I'd say. It's a medium distance regional express.

Bu which measure (distance) only XC plus London to Plymouth, Newcastle or Preston and beyond would be InterCity then?

 

[Bletchleyite]

There's Birmingham to North Wales, too. Though that's really more of a regional service.

Very much so. If you actually want to go from Birmingham to North Wales it's not insignificantly quicker changing at Crewe and Chester, though obviously some prefer a direct train. The planners appear to offer both.

 

[Rail Quest]

Holyhead- Manchester could probably justify more IC-style stock.

Those services double as commuter services for stations between Chester and Manchester. I use them in the mornings and evenings and the 197s work very well (when they themselves work) for that route with their door configuration. The peak commuter sevives would probably be a lot more clunky with door-at-end stock. The EMR 158s taking their sweet time to load/unload at Piccadilly and Oxford Rd demonstrate this pretty well.

That's of course not to say there's no reason to give that route longer-distance feeling stock but I really don't think many people use those services to go any further than Chester on either sides of the route so the main benefit of long-distance comfort seems diminished from that perspective.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Those services double as commuter services for stations between Chester and Manchester. I use them in the mornings and evenings and the 197s work very well (when they themselves work) for that route with their door configuration. The peak commuter sevives would probably be a lot more clunky with door-at-end stock. The EMR 158s taking their sweet time to load/unload at Piccadilly and Oxford Rd demonstrate this pretty well.

That's of course not to say there's no reason to give that route longer-distance feeling stock but I really don't think many people use those services to go any further than Chester on either sides of the route so the main benefit of long-distance comfort seems diminished from that perspective.

Is this the same conflict of demands that see Cross Country voyagers get too heavy use as they approach/leave conurbations on their route - around Birmingham for example ?.

A solution would be more paths for more commuter services leaving the longer distance trains between Holyhead and Manchester to miss a lot of "intermediate" stations.
Paths that probably are not available ?.