Why should I trust rail travel?

[al78]

At the rate it's going, even I'm starting to lose faith in the railway for long distance travel.

A short while ago, I managed to convince my mother that taking the train was fine, that the days of ridiculous delays etc weren't as bad as reported in some gutter press publications. Lo and behold, on her outbound journey she was catastrophically delayed, and I endured one hell of a barrage of insults.

The next time, she had little choice but to use the railway again as she wasn't keen on driving 8 hours. Lo and behold, she was catastrophically delayed again, and conflicting information led to one hell of a confusing situation.

On that occasion, we took the Caledonian Sleeper as I had work the next morning. Lo and behold, we were almost an hour late into Birmingham International.

Then it was apparently my turn to feel the wrath of the railway, as I spent almost an hour in a deserted Derby Station as they cancelled the 2nd last train of the night into Sheffield, with the last being 2 hours away.

And finally. there was a horrorshow of a day where I got stuck in Bristol Temple Meads on a hot day with no air con on any trains as the system collapsed once again.

Of less than 12 intercity journeys me and my mother made, we were severely delayed nearly 50% of the time. It was a complete shambles, and I had a right old time getting Delay Repay to cough up each and every time. Complete and utter omnishambles. No wonder people prefer driving.

As much as this sounds like a complete nightmare and indicative of a service that isn't fit for purpose, I might suggest that you were both incredibly unlucky with such a bad run of severe delays. I commute London to Farringdon twice a week and I was, until earlier this year, averaging a delay repay once every two weeks, but it was of the 15-30 min and 30-60 min variety, not hours.

 

[Russel]

As much as this sounds like a complete nightmare and indicative of a service that isn't fit for purpose, I might suggest that you were both incredibly unlucky with such a bad run of severe delays. I commute London to Farringdon twice a week and I was, until earlier this year, averaging a delay repay once every two weeks, but it was of the 15-30 min and 30-60 min variety, not hours.

I frequently encounter severe disruption on the Trent Valley, I commute three days a week and on average, encounter one cancelled train per week, for personal reasons, I also travel from Lichfield to Colchester/Clacton and back by train about once a month and I'm at the point where I count myself lucky if I do the journey disruption free...

Am I also incredibly unlucky?

 

[speedy1]

If only there were some kind of railway-wide (but also broken down by operator) analysis of delays and cancellations we could rely on rather than going round in circles with anecdotes...!

Those statistics could also be used to compare GB to eg other countries in Europe. They might even show we're not actually terrible compared to some. But that's all hypothetical of course lol

 

[al78]

I frequently encounter severe disruption on the Trent Valley, I commute three days a week and on average, encounter one cancelled train per week, for personal reasons, I also travel from Lichfield to Colchester/Clacton and back by train about once a month and I'm at the point where I count myself lucky if I do the journey disruption free...

Am I also incredibly unlucky?

That is closer to normal, for me it is one every four commutes is disrupted (except for an unusual two month gap in spring) so one in three is similar, but there is often more disruption that doesn't affect me. My comment of "Incredibly unlucky" refers to being delayed for at least an hour on multiple consecutive journeys, an experience I would expect to be rare. I am only going by my experience of train travel but I appreciate there will be regional variation.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 Jul 2026 ==

If only there were some kind of railway-wide (but also broken down by operator) analysis of delays and cancellations we could rely on rather than going round in circles with anecdotes...!

Those statistics could also be used to compare GB to eg other countries in Europe. They might even show we're not actually terrible compared to some. But that's all hypothetical of course lol

What matters is how often I am delayed on my train journeys as to the opinion I form of the rail network, if 95% of journeys that have nothing to do with me run to time, that is irrelevant as far as I'm concerned. How we compare to whatever European rail network you can find where the UK might just compare favourably is also irrelevant, to be good enough, it is not sufficient to be better than the worst.

 

[speedy1]

What matters is how often I am delayed on my train journeys as to the opinion I form of the rail network, if 95% of journeys that have nothing to do with me run to time, that is irrelevant as far as I'm concerned. How we compare to whatever European rail network you can find where the UK might just compare favourably is also irrelevant, to be good enough, it is not sufficient to be better than the worst.

You are proposing to judge our railway on a single opinion poll, of yourself?

Of course the journeys people themselves make matter to them. That is so obvious it doesn't need to be said.

Would you be happy with eg double our spend, statistics showing a halving of reliability across the network, as long as your individual journeys happen to be fine?

And I'm curious as you sound like you don't want a mediocre railway: how much extra in tickets and tax are you personally willing to pay for our railway to be the best?

And how would you judge how the extra billions are spent if tickets were to rise and subsidies rise?

(None of my questions are rhetorical fwiw )

 

[35B]

You are proposing to judge our railway on a single opinion poll, of yourself?

Of course the journeys people themselves make matter to them. That is so obvious it doesn't need to be said.

Would you be happy with eg double our spend, statistics showing a halving of reliability across the network, as long as your individual journeys happen to be fine?

And I'm curious as you sound like you don't want a mediocre railway: how much extra in tickets and tax are you personally willing to pay for our railway to be the best?

And how would you judge how the extra billions are spent if tickets were to rise and subsidies rise?

(None of my questions are rhetorical fwiw )

The point, though, is that all of our samples of one are the primary impressions that we draw. And, more often than not, it is the extremes rather than the norm that stick in our minds.

Personally, I think the statistical approach is almost right - but doesn't capture that wider question of perception. But as the averages discussed are generally mean, they flatten the data and don't adequately represent the distribution of delays

 

[The exile]

I frequently encounter severe disruption on the Trent Valley, I commute three days a week and on average, encounter one cancelled train per week, for personal reasons, I also travel from Lichfield to Colchester/Clacton and back by train about once a month and I'm at the point where I count myself lucky if I do the journey disruption free...

Am I also incredibly unlucky?

Don’t know whether you’re unlucky or I’m incredibly lucky. I reckon that in the 7 years I’ve been a GWR commuter in the Bristol area there have been 10 occasions when I could have claimed delay repay. Admittedly 3 of them have been in the last fortnight.

 

[pokemonsuper9]

Don’t know whether you’re unlucky or I’m incredibly lucky. I reckon that in the 7 years I’ve been a GWR commuter in the Bristol area there have been 10 occasions when I could have claimed delay repay. Admittedly 3 of them have been in the last fortnight.

For me, in the last 2 years of my commute I've gotten delay repay 36 times, resulting in £41.25, 4 Northern Complementary Returns and 1 Northern Complementary Single.

21 of those 36 were in just the last 4 months of 2024 (height of the Northern weekday staffing issues).

 

[Russel]

That is closer to normal, for me it is one every four commutes is disrupted (except for an unusual two month gap in spring) so one in three is similar, but there is often more disruption that doesn't affect me. My comment of "Incredibly unlucky" refers to being delayed for at least an hour on multiple consecutive journeys, an experience I would expect to be rare. I am only going by my experience of train travel but I appreciate there will be regional variation.

Problem is, when it happens on one in three commutes, it quickly becomes tiresome and for the last hour of my day in the office, I'll have RTT open in the background keeping an eye on my train in case I have to leave 5 minutes early to get the bus, which turns a 7 minute train journey into a bus ride of over an hour.

Don’t know whether you’re unlucky or I’m incredibly lucky. I reckon that in the 7 years I’ve been a GWR commuter in the Bristol area there have been 10 occasions when I could have claimed delay repay. Admittedly 3 of them have been in the last fortnight.

It's very much dependant on the line/area I notice, GA seem very reliable and on my monthly trips on Colchester, I can't remember a single journey that was over 5 minutes late, even the day after the Stratford fire the service was still in a pretty good shape, yet the WCML/Trent Valley seems to fall apart each time the wind changes direction.

 

[Tetragon213]

What was the old quote again? There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I do sometimes wonder how much manipulation the figures on the station "How are we doing?" posters are subjected to. Something tells me either I'm just exceptionally (bordering on statistical impossibility) unlucky, or someone's massaging the figures.

 

[Russel]

What was the old quote again? There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I do sometimes wonder how much manipulation the figures on the station "How are we doing?" posters are subjected to. Something tells me either I'm just exceptionally (bordering on statistical impossibility) unlucky, or someone's massaging the figures.

Indeed, a quick search of Google Gemini for UK Rail punctuality 2026 has returned the below stats that look to come from the ORR, though as you suggest, is someone massaging the figures, because it simply doesn't feel like it matches reality.

The cancellation rate especially, spend 15 minutes at any big station and you'll almost certainly hear an announcement about a cancellation.

86.4% of trains arrived within the industry's new standard of 3 minutes at station stops, and cancellations sat at roughly 3.2%.

 

[The exile]

Indeed, a quick search of Google Gemini for UK Rail punctuality 2026 has returned the below stats that look to come from the ORR, though as you suggest, is someone massaging the figures, because it simply doesn't feel like it matches reality.

The cancellation rate especially, spend 15 minutes at any big station and you'll almost certainly hear an announcement about a cancellation.

Although there’s a “perception bias “ there. Cancel the Glasgow - Penzance and thousands experience / hear it announced, but statistically the Stourbridge shuttle running perfectly all day (which few will hear about) massively outweighs it.

 

[35B]

Although there’s a “perception bias “ there. Cancel the Glasgow - Penzance and thousands experience / hear it announced, but statistically the Stourbridge shuttle running perfectly all day (which few will hear about) massively outweighs it.

But that also drives the question of the accuracy of the statistics. Not in a "damned lies" way, but in whether they really represent experience.

I suggest we need more "fiddling" to convert raw numbers of trains cancelled/delayed into some kind of impact metric to reflect two features:
* the number of people affected (e.g. the number of seats)
* how much those people are affected (e.g. how many minutes are lost)

But the other point is that it's often not the delay that counts so much as the experience - XC being the classic example. Which requires a different lens to draw out, but contributes equally to the perception of rail travel.

 

[Krokodil]

My comment of "Incredibly unlucky" refers to being delayed for at least an hour on multiple consecutive journeys, an experience I would expect to be rare.

It's the experience I have of Deutsche Bahn, not the UK. I have though claimed Delay Repay from Avanti a couple of times recently, having been making a return journey weekly. Too soon to see if that's a trend or just bad luck.

Something tells me either I'm just exceptionally (bordering on statistical impossibility) unlucky

Would you mind giving the forum notice of when you'll be making journeys please? So that we can plan to avoid your trains

The cancellation rate especially, spend 15 minutes at any big station and you'll almost certainly hear an announcement about a cancellation.

If you hear of one cancellation, but 29 other trains run as booked, then the statistic is accurate.

I suggest we need more "fiddling" to convert raw numbers of trains cancelled/delayed into some kind of impact metric to reflect two features:
* the number of people affected (e.g. the number of seats)
* how much those people are affected (e.g. how many minutes are lost)

Plus how people are affected across their whole journey, not just on an individual train. A train departing on time looks good in the statistics, but a bunch of passengers have just been delayed by two hours because it wasn't held by five minutes for a connection.

But the other point is that it's often not the delay that counts so much as the experience - XC being the classic example. Which requires a different lens to draw out, but contributes equally to the perception of rail travel.

Passengers In Excess of Capacity (PIXC) statistics are published, but only in a very limited way. They only really cover commuter flows in and out of major cities.

If the stats covered all crowding - XC Voyagers, TfW's two-car Sardine Specials to the seaside etc. as well as commuter flows into major cities, we'd have a more complete picture.

 

[DH1Commuter]

If we’re going for anecdotes, I commute 5-6 days a week on a short portion of the ECML and 1-2x a month to London. The vast majority of days I catch the same train, which is almost always on time. If not, there’s either one soon after or there’s been a suicide and everything is hugely delayed. On the way home, more prone to cancellations but even then rare that I can claim delay repay.

London trips? I think I have had delay repay twice in the last 6 months, so pretty reliable there also.

Again, only anecdote, but I trust rail for work more than I would the roads.

 

[Shrop]

Again, only anecdote, but I trust rail for work more than I would the roads.

I always used to say this too, but sadly no longer.

Increasingly, rail staff are becoming like insurance companies, ie their job is not to assist, it's to find reasons why they shouldn't - by making the fault into that of someone else.

Yes, I know very well that many rail staff still genuinely do care and will help if they can, but their ranks are infiltrated by alarming numbers who won't. (Apologies for the length of this post but read on to see a first hand example of why I'm concerned).

I arrived into Eastleigh en route to Fareham one evening, after a regular weekly commute down from Shrewsbury. Our train had been stopped at Basingstoke for three hours due to trespass, and although the line was necessarily closed, it was how this was managed that was so alarming.

Eventual arrival into Eastleigh was shortly before 23.00, and along with many others I was now on the first train after the blockage.

With great relief, we saw the 22.54 to Portsmouth standing in the adjacent platform. It was lightly loaded, and so around 40 of us quickly made our way to it, only to find its doors locked. To our utter dismay, it then left even though many were trying in vain to board.

Now it really doesn't take much joined up thinking to know that an extra minute on the 22.54 train will cause negligible pathing problems further down the line at that time of night.

It also doesn't take much to recognise that a trainload of passengers who left London at the end of the peak period, would be carrying a good number who would want to make that connection after their 3 hour delay

But no-one recognised any responsibility for realising the plight of these passengers. The large group of us who had been left stranded, found the person in charge, who said he knew nothing about the delays as he had only just come on shift.

We remonstrated, saying that surely there must have been some handover of knowledge, but his very quick retort was that it wasn't his fault, and if we didn't stop pestering him, he would cancel the bus he had just ordered. So he clearly did know something, but not enough to authorise holding the 22.54 train for just one minute.

Maybe there are things I don't know, but to this day I've never heard any justifiable reason for such poor management of situations like that.

And that, along with countless other situations, is why having faith in our railways is no longer something so many of the travelling public are comfortable with.

I just feel sorry for the members of rail staff and management who still do strive to provide the great service that we should have, but I fear their numbers are dwindling.

Any comments that could quell my doubts would be very welcome

 

[Falcon1200]

Maybe there are things I don't know, but to this day I've never heard any justifiable reason for such poor management of situations like that.

I cannot see any justifiable reason either; Surely if not the station staff, the Guard of the 2254 would have been aware of a large number of passengers trying to join their train and could have released the doors - The train was late already anyway! Was a complaint made to South Western Railway and if so, what was their response/explanation?

I have to agree that the unpredictability of rail travel is an issue -Which does apply to other transport modes also, but in the case of roads there are usually diversions available, and many people travel by rail far more often than by air, so with a lesser chance of being affected by disruption.

 

[The exile]

I cannot see any justifiable reason either; Surely if not the station staff, the Guard of the 2254 would have been aware of a large number of passengers trying to join their train and could have released the doors - The train was late already anyway! Was a complaint made to South Western Railway and if so, what was their response/explanation

An unfortunate but inevitable effect of the compliance and target culture that has taken over (this part of) the world. A target for something is established because a bean-counter has decreed it and from that moment on the only thing that matters is the fulfilment of that target to the letter. How do you know it’s Conpliance’s turn to make the tea? There’s a pool of molten plastic - they were told to boil the kettle.
Targets without a clear understanding of why they are targets are at best meaningless and at worst counterproductive (the post-war history of Eastern Europe provides plenty of examples, but the only modern European history that matters is the Nazis.)

 

[Shrop]

I cannot see any justifiable reason either; Surely if not the station staff, the Guard of the 2254 would have been aware of a large number of passengers trying to join their train and could have released the doors - The train was late already anyway! Was a complaint made to South Western Railway and if so, what was their response/explanation?

Yes, I did make a complaint, but their response was that the 22.54 had to be released without further delay in order to avoid pathing problems in the Portsmouth area. This was even though my complaint suggested that pathing problems were unlikely at that time of night.

It was as though the response from Customer Services was entirely automated, taking little or no account of reality, and certainly without care, or consideration of my concerns.

I've encountered similar responses elsewhere. For example a slightly late arrival into Shrewsbury from Birmingham at around 9.30pm saw the Holyhead train depart in a very similar manner, just as passengers had reached it.

Now I often have better things to do than involve myself in journeys that don't directly affect me, but having seen the distress of those passengers who were left stranded at Shrewsbury as I finished my own journey, I did write to TfW.

Their response was similar, it actually said there would be pathing concerns over the Menai Bridge, which would hold up trains bound for London! I did wonder how many London bound trains would be inconvenienced at nearly midnight coming out of Anglesey.

The point being, that complaints seem to be increasingly handled with little or no relation to reality.

 

[The exile]

Their response was similar, it actually said there would be pathing concerns over the Menai Bridge, which would hold up trains bound for London! I did wonder how many London bound trains would be inconvenienced at nearly midnight coming out of Anglesey.

And even if there were, why are trains /passengers bound for London more important than anyone else? If anything, given London’s public transport network, they are the ones least likely to be seriously inconvenienced by a delay.

 

[Harpo]

For example a slightly late arrival into Shrewsbury from Birmingham at around 9.30pm saw the Holyhead train depart in a very similar manner, just as passengers had reached it.

Why would anyone from Shrewsbury or points north of Birmingham travel to Birmingham to get to Holyhead? If it’s about a connection forward to International, they are hardly in short supply.

We seem to have shifted significantly from a big issue that definitely needs political will, to lots of minor gripes.

 

[Tester]

Why would anyone from Shrewsbury or points north of Birmingham travel to Birmingham to get to Holyhead? If it’s about a connection forward to International, they are hardly in short supply.

We seem to have shifted significantly from a big issue that definitely needs political will, to lots of minor gripes.

You might want to re-read that!

 

[The exile]

Why would anyone from Shrewsbury or points north of Birmingham travel to Birmingham to get to Holyhead? If it’s about a connection forward to International, they are hardly in short supply.

We seem to have shifted significantly from a big issue that definitely needs political will, to lots of minor gripes.

They wouldn’t - however lots of people from Birmingham /Wolverhampton / Telford etc would travel via Shrewsbury, which is what was actually said.

 

[Harpo]

They wouldn’t - however lots of people from Birmingham /Wolverhampton / Telford etc would travel via Shrewsbury, which is what was actually said.

My mistake. But my point about drifting from a very big issue to lots of smaller ones stands. Connectional policies are irritating but not the big issue that really needs fixing.

 

[Shrop]

My mistake. But my point about drifting from a very big issue to lots of smaller ones stands. Connectional policies are irritating but not the big issue that really needs fixing.

Yes we've digressed a little. However, it's all relevant because the lack of care that abounds with running trains, seems to also be prevalent when customers try to express concerns about it.

The over-riding issue is the all round lack of customer focus, and the apparent inability and/or unwillingness of too many among staff and management to address this.

 

[speedy1]

The point, though, is that all of our samples of one are the primary impressions that we draw. And, more often than not, it is the extremes rather than the norm that stick in our minds.

Personally, I think the statistical approach is almost right - but doesn't capture that wider question of perception. But as the averages discussed are generally mean, they flatten the data and don't adequately represent the distribution of delays

It's a shame there is not willing to engage in discussion having ignored the questions. I'll take from the lack of reply that you want a perfect railway and no extra tax or rise in fares. Especially as you mention extremes sticking in our minds, implying you want to eradicate extremes ie all severe disruption

There really is no sense or value in discussing the issues on this level

 

[Sonic1234]

The point being, that complaints seem to be increasingly handled with little or no relation to reality.

Customer Relations has become the fob off/excuses department. The reality is that you (or other complainants) haven't abandoned rail, and even if you did, on a lot of routes demand exceeds capacity so it doesn't matter if you did.

 

[Harpo]

Yes we've digressed a little. However, it's all relevant because the lack of care that abounds with running trains, seems to also be prevalent when customers try to express concerns about it.

The over-riding issue is the all round lack of customer focus, and the apparent inability and/or unwillingness of too many among staff and management to address this.

Agreed, but this has to start at the top and work down culturally, hence my emphasis on the big stuff.

The first part has to be a boringly reliable railway where every train runs to time for its whole journey with it’s booked formation, all in use. That should be the railways promise but it is trying to do it with one hand (or maybe both) tied behind its back.

Staff on the frontline are the sticking plaster so there will continue to be be imperfect responses to continually crap delivery.

 

[Shrop]

Customer Relations has become the fob off/excuses department. The reality is that you (or other complainants) haven't abandoned rail, and even if you did, on a lot of routes demand exceeds capacity so it doesn't matter if you did.

You're not wrong about demand, however it's a very odd way to run a business. Most businesses with a huge demand would do whatever they could to cater for it, in order to seek to improve their profits.

Moreover, this is something any credible Government should be addressing. Our roads are overloaded, so why not seek to relieve congestion by providing more trains?

XC so often run short trains but longer trains require relatively little extra staffing and the platform space is generally already there, as is the track.

It seems a no brainer to seek to accommodate this demand, and you'd think any Givernment with any interest or competence in transport would provide encouragement to do so.

 

[RT4038]

You're not wrong about demand, however it's a very odd way to run a business. Most businesses with a huge demand would do whatever they could to cater for it, in order to seek to improve their profits.

Moreover, this is something any credible Government should be addressing. Our roads are overloaded, so why not seek to relieve congestion by providing more trains?

XC so often run short trains but longer trains require relatively little extra staffing and the platform space is generally already there, as is the track.

It seems a no brainer to seek to accommodate this demand, and you'd think any Givernment with any interest or competence in transport would provide encouragement to do so.

I think that some distinction has to be drawn between Transport and 'most businesses'. The product cannot be stored. It has to be consumed as it is produced, otherwise it is lost. The huge demand is not consistently spread across the day/week/year. It may well be that the additional revenue gained by catering for this huge demand (which is going to be buying/financing expensive items of rolling stock, possibly expanding maintenance facilities and costs, and additional staff), which is only present for relatively short periods in the day/week/year, does not improve their profits / reduce losses at all, certainly in the short term, which is what the current budget holders are concerned with.
I would be pretty certain the figures will have been calculated and the answer will not be clear cut.