Proposed new Channel Tunnel services discussion

[cle]

Also you can do 5 hours of work. Maybe the total air journey time is 4 hours, but you are faffing with cabs, security (some on train admittedly), gates, boarding, up down … then the same on the other side. It’s lots of interruption. Many short haul planes don’t have wifi either.

Vs 4-5 stable productive hours. Work, sleep, watch stuff, relax. Walk off relatively close to where you might need to be (exclusions apply) - No brainer.

Depends on your needs (in and out meeting or pitch, vs more flexible business visit) - and the reality is many will fly one way and train the other… like AMS today.

But has to be experienced to believe it.

 

[Farnborough]

That’s the flight time, not the origin to destination time.

Sure... and as I've posted before, Flightline 730 from Frimley to LHR T5 is £3 and a single 40 minute bus journey. From bus to gate is a maximum of 30 minutes via the FastTrack lane Or a bit longer if you want to use the lounge...

Amusingly, Google Map's quickest route to St P is to get the same bus to LHR, then the Lizzie, for a further hour or so journey.

St Pancras is good for some, but not so good for many; of course, anyone on the EMR route is quids in...

 

[The Ham]

Sure... and as I've posted before, Flightline 730 from Frimley to LHR T5 is £3 and a single 40 minute bus journey. From bus to gate is a maximum of 30 minutes via the FastTrack lane Or a bit longer if you want to use the lounge...

Amusingly, Google Map's quickest route to St P is to get the same bus to LHR, then the Lizzie, for a further hour or so journey.

St Pancras is good for some, but not so good for many; of course, anyone on the EMR route is quids in...

Although, due to it being an hourly service that could add a significant amount of extra time to the journey. For example, if the fight is of a time when you need to catch the bus the hour beforehand.

That's before we consider that there's a 35 minute cut off rule, where one has to enter the security at Heathrow with at least that much time otherwise your check in is automatically cancelled.

That means that, even being truly optimistic (that the bus isn't even 30 seconds late) it's at least 46 minutes from departure time.

It also depends on where exactly you are traveling, much further out on that bus route and the maths changes.

Also, rail links to Heathrow from the Aldershot Urban Area and most places in the SWR area are not great. Ideally it would have the Southern Approach to Heathrow, which would give Farnborough Main a more reliable more frequent service (even more ideally it would be a stopping service from Basingstoke, as the time penalty would be limited and then only for those traveling from Basingstoke).

Likewise, the slog across London slows things down to get St Pancras.

The current circa 90 minute (Farnborough Main to St Pancras) could be reduced to circa 70 minutes with Crossrail 2.

Of course Heathrow is far closer than St Pancras and so would always be fairly quick to get to.

Having said that, my aviation geek friend has said that they much prefer using Eurostar to get to Paris than flying and so it's likely that even an extra hour isn't gong to dent the choice made by many.

Especially given that Air France operates 6 services a day whilst Eurostar operate 16, and so you're much more likely to be able match up arrival times to suit your requirements by going by train. Especially if you are considering what happens if a service is cancelled (I.e. taking the option before the one which would be just in time, so you're not late even if a fight is cancelled and you still manage to get a space on the next fight - or train if that's what you're using for travel).

 

[cle]

Eurostar conformance has gotten a little more rigid over the years.

But there is just so much more dead time and shuffling around in air travel than a ‘longer’ train journey.

Even on a plane - WiFi might not work, you can’t have a laptop during taxi / take off / landing or tables down. And working is far more difficult re privacy and just plain space, compared to most train seats.

But yes if you live in Surrey then LHR is easier than St Pancras. And if your meetings are at Reckitt, Schiphol makes far more sense. All journeys differ - hence London justifying 5-6 airports. But for city to city itineraries, these perceived longer train journeys will be far more pleasant and productive.

 

[Farnborough]

Having said that, my aviation geek friend has said that they much prefer using Eurostar to get to Paris than flying and so it's likely that even an extra hour isn't gong to dent the choice made by many.

Given that CDG is a bigger ****-hole than most other airports (although FRA and AMS would like a word...) I cannot disagree with that...

 

[BRX]

For many destinations in Switzerland it's quite possible for the rail fare from the airport to end point to closely approach the cost of a DB sparpreis ticket from Brussels to that same endpoint. So it can end up being a price comparison of a eurostar ticket to Brussels vs a plane ticket to Basel or wherever.

 

[Snow1964]

The Italians have bulked up an existing order of Freccias to have enough trains for their London services. Given that they haven’t ordered a variant or modified version one must assume they checked via a back channel that the existing product would be acceptable.

Reports from Italy are another batch has been ordered for FS, Italy.

36 were ordered in 2023, another 10 for Paris area routes, and now 9 more ordered (doesn't say where for) with reported 19 more to be signed soon (understood to be top up of 2 for unknown route, and 17 for an as yet unannounced cross border service). Intention is 57 units will be in service by 2029 and 74 units by 2031.

The Italian media report (assuming it translated correctly) says FS already serving Munich, but hope to add Berlin services once Brenner base tunnel is fully open. This suggests to me they have potential for switching fleets around Europe if they are multi-system

 

[TheWierdOne]

Reports from Italy are another batch has been ordered for FS, Italy.

36 were ordered in 2023, another 10 for Paris area routes, and now 9 more ordered (doesn't say where for) with reported 19 more to be signed soon (understood to be top up of 2 for unknown route, and 17 for an as yet unannounced cross border service). Intention is 57 units will be in service by 2029 and 74 units by 2031.

The Italian media report (assuming it translated correctly) says FS already serving Munich, but hope to add Berlin services once Brenner base tunnel is fully open. This suggests to me they have potential for switching fleets around Europe if they are multi-system

They are very wedded to the Frecciarossa 1000. One can see the logic. If you have one type of train, that can go basically anywhere on the European high speed network, why bother using anything else. I imagine it simplifies and cheapens their maintenance significantly. Compare that to say Eurostar, with two types of train that would have very few if any common parts or procedures.

 

[Snow1964]

They are very wedded to the Frecciarossa 1000. One can see the logic. If you have one type of train, that can go basically anywhere on the European high speed network, why bother using anything else. I imagine it simplifies and cheapens their maintenance significantly. Compare that to say Eurostar, with two types of train that would have very few if any common parts or procedures.

Actually if you include the trains inherited from Thayls, Eurostar has 4 types of train, and hasn't yet placed orders to replace all the mid 1994-1996 fleet

We know big high speed orders are pending, RENFE, Spain, have given 2 extra weeks for its 30 units plus 10 options tender (from 9 to 23 June), and with first unit to be in service in 40 months, (last within 78 months), going to have to be existing design to meet that timescale. These will replace the original series 1 Madrid-Seville sets

It's also public that Italo, an Italian operator is intending to buy 26 (with 14 options) Siemens Velaro Neo, for use in Germany and contract is supposed to be signed during June, provided track access is granted (the lack of track access confirmation is delaying signing)

Hitachi also announced this week 16th June, a partnership with PESA regarding Frecciarossa 1000 high speed train sets for Poland.

Depending on how these other potential orders for trains play out, Eurostar might find getting extra trains is not going to be something that can be delivered for at least 5 years.

 

[TheWierdOne]

Gemini trains have come up in a report in the Times. They are targeting Cologne, Disneyland and CDG, with a travel time of four hours to Cologne.

New details include Gemini now being backed by a Middle Eastern sovereign wealth fund, an initial fleet of 8 200m trains (presumably Velaro Novos as previously mentioned), and that they are in discussions with the DfT for a depot near Ashford, with a fallback of having a depot in Belgium or Germany.

Eurostar challenger plans London-Cologne line by 2030

Gemini Trains also wants to run rival services to France, including Disneyland Paris and Charles de Gaulle airport

www.thetimes.com

Gemini Trains, a British-based start-up that says it is backed by a Middle Eastern sovereign wealth fund, wants to run rival services to the French capital, including to Disneyland Paris and Charles de Gaulle airport, as well as Cologne, with the aim of expanding to Frankfurt and Düsseldorf.

Gemini is set to lease eight electric 200m trains with capacity for more than 550 passengers, aiming to run about eleven services a day by 2030 before “rapid expansion”. Eurostar runs about 26 services a day from London.

Although Gemini did not secure access to Temple Mills, it said it was speaking to the Department for Transport about a potential new depot at Ashford, and that it would consider sites in Belgium or Germany.

 

[Palmerston]

For anyone who can't access it, the Times also says they plan to make Stratford International their London Hub and also call at Ebbsfleet and Ashford International.

 

[cle]

Isn't Cologne via Brussels? Disney/CDG, not being so. Are they investing in customs/security at CDG too? Disney I suspect could become a shared cost as Eurostar may want to return there. It is also a good place for splitting, eg. the French/German Swiss divides.

 

[Cach17]

Gemini trains have come up in a report in the Times. They are targeting Cologne, Disneyland and CDG, with a travel time of four hours to Cologne.

New details include Gemini now being backed by a Middle Eastern sovereign wealth fund, an initial fleet of 8 200m trains (presumably Velaro Novos as previously mentioned), and that they are in discussions with the DfT for a depot near Ashford, with a fallback of having a depot in Belgium or Germany.

Eurostar challenger plans London-Cologne line by 2030

Gemini Trains also wants to run rival services to France, including Disneyland Paris and Charles de Gaulle airport

www.thetimes.com

Jon Worth's #CrossChannelRail report from last year (link to the map here) made a point about how unadaptable CDG station would be for cross-channel services. Marne la Vallée would be a better choice for a Paris station, given it's already been served by Eurostar.

For anyone who can't access it, the Times also says they plan to make Stratford International their London Hub and also call at Ebbsfleet and Ashford International.

Part of me is now wondering (hoping) that Eurostar will start calling at Ebbsfleet and Ashford again just to undercut one of their competitors.

 

[Sorcerer]

For anyone who can't access it, the Times also says they plan to make Stratford International their London Hub and also call at Ebbsfleet and Ashford International.

Stratford is an absolute non-starter as a hub station because it has just two international platforms, neither of which has immediate access to the opposite running lines as far as I'm aware. You'd have to continue onwards to reverse the train elsewhere (likely at St Pancras) and at that point if you get the pathing access why not just use a Central London terminus and actually meet the competition? Sounds like a lot of hot air to me.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Jul 2026 ==

Part of me is now wondering (hoping) that Eurostar will start calling at Ebbsfleet and Ashford again just to undercut one of their competitors.

I'd say this depends on who finances the running of Ebbsfleet and Ashford's international facilities. If Gemini are prepared to pay for it as well as use Stratford as the London hub, then if I were Eurostar CEO I wouldn't be the least bit worried. Not only would my company still dominate the market from London to Paris, but we would also be doing it from a Central London terminus with better catchment and wouldn't be spending money on intermediate Kent stations that will likely never see enough passenger numbers to make a return on the expenditure towards keeping them operating.

 

[Trainbike46]

Stratford is an absolute non-starter as a hub station because it has just two international platforms, neither of which has immediate access to the opposite running lines as far as I'm aware. You'd have to continue onwards to reverse the train elsewhere (likely at St Pancras) and at that point if you get the pathing access why not just use a Central London terminus and actually meet the competition? Sounds like a lot of hot air to me.

The only reason would be if there is a capacity limit for border checks at St Pancras that you can bypass by using Stratford. My understanding is that such a limit shouldn't exist in the long term, though!

 

[absolutelymilk]

The only reason would be if there is a capacity limit for border checks at St Pancras that you can bypass by using Stratford. My understanding is that such a limit shouldn't exist in the long term, though!

There will still be a limit, it will just be a lot more than it is currently. If the proposed expanded Eurostar and Virgin services use up all the extra capacity, Gemini may still need to use Stratford

 

[Trainbike46]

There will still be a limit, it will just be a lot more than it is currently. If the proposed expanded Eurostar and Virgin services use up all the extra capacity, Gemini may still need to use Stratford

The plan from LSPH was for 5000 pax per hour, so it seems unlikely to me Eurostar and Virgin will use all of that capacity!

 

[Snow1964]

Stratford is an absolute non-starter as a hub station because it has just two international platforms, neither of which has immediate access to the opposite running lines as far as I'm aware. You'd have to continue onwards to reverse the train elsewhere (likely at St Pancras) and at that point if you get the pathing access why not just use a Central London terminus and actually meet the competition?

A double track viaduct towards Camden Town was built, but only one (reversible) track was ever laid. So in theory could add a reversing siding on the spare formation, which means wouldn't need to utilise St Pancras platforms. And if it is only a few services a day a single siding should be sufficient

 

[Sorcerer]

The only reason would be if there is a capacity limit for border checks at St Pancras that you can bypass by using Stratford. My understanding is that such a limit shouldn't exist in the long term, though!

I think any future capacity upgrades at St Pancras would be enjoyed by Eurostar and Virgin, and quite possibly Trenitalia, before Gemini would be able to, which is probably why they want to bank on Stratford.

A double track viaduct towards Camden Town was built, but only one (reversible) track was ever laid. So in theory could add a reversing siding on the spare formation, which means wouldn't need to utilise St Pancras platforms. And if it is only a few services a day a single siding should be sufficient

Okay so I can see them disembarking passengers at Stratford and then taking the train further to be stabilised and turned around at the reversing siding before bringing it back to the other platform. Even so I still don't see a good business case for it.

 

[BRX]

This all feels a bit like just a press release to generate some interest and media coverage, rather than anything concrete, like so many Channel Tunnel announcements over the years. Unless the Times article reveals they've actually ordered some trains or something?

 

[TheWierdOne]

This all feels a bit like just a press release to generate some interest and media coverage, rather than anything concrete, like so many Channel Tunnel announcements over the years. Unless the Times article reveals they've actually ordered some trains or something?

I think the status is similar to what Virgin had with regard to Alstom rolling stock before Temple Mills access was confirmed. Gemini have claimed they will use the Siemens Velaro Novo so I assume they have some sort of understanding behind the scenes, that only triggers once other things fall into place for Gemini

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Jul 2026 ==

I think any future capacity upgrades at St Pancras would be enjoyed by Eurostar and Virgin, and quite possibly Trenitalia, before Gemini would be able to, which is probably why they want to bank on Stratford.

The railway formerly known as HS1 has said they will increase border capacity from 1,500 pax/hour to around 5000. Virgin and Trenitalia will just over double the amount of international departures out of St Pancras but they are planning to use 200m trains at present, so potentially there would be some space left for Gemini, but it would be approaching the new capacity limit quite rapidly.

 

[Sorcerer]

The railway formerly known as HS1 has said they will increase border capacity from 1,500 pax/hour to around 5000. Virgin and Trenitalia will just over double the amount of international departures out of St Pancras but they are planning to use 200m trains at present, so potentially there would be some space left for Gemini, but it would be approaching the new capacity limit quite rapidly.

For what it's worth I think the ORR will be more likely to approve Virgin over Trenitalia given they already allocated them the depot space Temple Mills. But Trenitalia still has a strong case given their experience operating in other countries and with high safety standards of their fleet. Gemini meanwhile are mostly operating with very little and are apparently building a business case off using Stratford rather than St Pancras.

 

[TheWierdOne]

For what it's worth I think the ORR will be more likely to approve Virgin over Trenitalia given they already allocated them the depot space Temple Mills. But Trenitalia still has a strong case given their experience operating in other countries and with high safety standards of their fleet. Gemini meanwhile are mostly operating with very little and are apparently building a business case off using Stratford rather than St Pancras.

I doubt Trenitalia will have any issues at all getting approval. They have plenty of experience and will have a heavy maintenance location in Paris.

Gemini may be new as a company but their board is stacked with all the right kind of experience including 2 former Eurostar employees, and given their backing by a Middle Eastern wealth fund I doubt they are going to run into cash flow issues soon. If they can get the DfT on board for a second HS1 depot and permission to do up Stratford there is very little to actually stop them getting up and running. Track capacity on HS1 is sufficient for a significantly higher level of international service than at present, and unless it really really screws up scheduling HS1 are unlikely to reject Gemini turning trains in St Pancras or on the curve to the North London Line.

The only people Gemini have to convince are their financial backers. The government only has to give permission, which they are unlikely to not do.

 

[Sorcerer]

I doubt Trenitalia will have any issues at all getting approval. They have plenty of experience and will have a heavy maintenance location in Paris.

Gemini may be new as a company but their board is stacked with all the right kind of experience including 2 former Eurostar employees, and given their backing by a Middle Eastern wealth fund I doubt they are going to run into cash flow issues soon. If they can get the DfT on board for a second HS1 depot and permission to do up Stratford there is very little to actually stop them getting up and running. Track capacity on HS1 is sufficient for a significantly higher level of international service than at present, and unless it really really screws up scheduling HS1 are unlikely to reject Gemini turning trains in St Pancras or on the curve to the North London Line.

The only people Gemini have to convince are their financial backers. The government only has to give permission, which they are unlikely to not do.

Even assuming HS1 could handle Eurostar, Virgin, Trenitalia, Southeastern High-Speed and Gemini services, I feel like their business case is weaker. Unless they were able to sway the market through being a low-cost option using Stratford for anyone willing to connect elsewhere to reach Central London then I don't see it being as successful as the ones going straight through to St Pancras.

 

[pokemonsuper9]

Even assuming HS1 could handle Eurostar, Virgin, Trenitalia, Southeastern High-Speed and Gemini services, I feel like their business case is weaker. Unless they were able to sway the market through being a low-cost option using Stratford for anyone willing to connect elsewhere to reach Central London then I don't see it being as successful as the ones going straight through to St Pancras.

I think it would be easy for them offer tickets partnered with SouthEastern High speed to get into St Pancras, similar to Lumo's "LUMO ST& SR ONLY" fares for Preston-Glasgow (and many more pairs).

 

[Sorcerer]

I think it would be easy for them offer tickets partnered with SouthEastern High speed to get into St Pancras, similar to Lumo's "LUMO ST& SR ONLY" fares for Preston-Glasgow (and many more pairs).

I could see this being a possibility for sure, especially for the budget-conscious passengers who don't mind not going directly into St Pancras, but it would need to be cheap enough to be attractive, and aside from Eurostar competition likely to already bring prices down, HS1 track charges along with running Stratford, Ebbsfleet and Ashford certainly won't come cheap. On that note, it really does show how much not being in Schengen holds back potential Eurostar competition.

 

[TheWierdOne]

I could see this being a possibility for sure, especially for the budget-conscious passengers who don't mind not going directly into St Pancras, but it would need to be cheap enough to be attractive, and aside from Eurostar competition likely to already bring prices down, HS1 track charges along with running Stratford, Ebbsfleet and Ashford certainly won't come cheap. On that note, it really does show how much not being in Schengen holds back potential Eurostar competition.

The access fees and St Pancras capacity are the bigger issues. Schengen is a barrier for whoever runs trains, and Eurostar does not have exclusive use of the border facilities, they simply got there first.

Given that Gemini is proposing services to Germany, for which they will receive an initial discount in charges through the Chunnel, I don’t think they’re a Ryanair-style setup. Stratford international is connected to both financial centres of London, Canary Wharf and the Square Mile, by the DLR. If they offer fast border clearance for business passenger as Eurostar does then they could be offering a sustainable alternative for business travel to financial centres in Europe, that wouldn’t measure up badly against air travel times door-to-door. You could have a working lunch in London and still be in Brussels in time to give the Belgian team a roasting for their poor results.

As a side note I’m surprised that three serious players have come along basically all at once and I would like to know what changed to make that happen.

 

[ShadowKnight]

I still think that convincing southeastern to run up the WCML to somewhere like Milton Keynes would result in both a seamless and calmer international connection at Stratford, also a cross London commuter route and open up new people to the Kent seaside avoiding a nasty change in London.

I could see this being a possibility for sure, especially for the budget-conscious passengers who don't mind not going directly into St Pancras, but it would need to be cheap enough to be attractive, and aside from Eurostar competition likely to already bring prices down, HS1 track charges along with running Stratford, Ebbsfleet and Ashford certainly won't come cheap. On that note, it really does show how much not being in Schengen holds back potential Eurostar competition

 

[Cach17]

I still think that convincing southeastern to run up the WCML to somewhere like Milton Keynes would result in both a seamless and calmer international connection at Stratford, also a cross London commuter route and open up new people to the Kent seaside avoiding a nasty change in London.

While they'd be nice to have, good luck finding space on the WCML/NLL for those services.

 

[Bald Rick]

While they'd be nice to have, good luck finding space on the WCML/NLL for those services.

There is no space for them.