Yes, I'd envision that HS2 will eventually be running at least 6 TPH to Manchester. At that point, there simply wouldn't be capacity to run separate services to Manchester and to Scotland.Though of course if there was something like 6-8 tph to Manchester, the loading on trains that run beyond might spread itself out to not cause problems to traffic for Leeds/ Scotland.
But HS2 explicitly _is_ building a segregated high-speed network so that the major cities outside London can function as interchange hubs in their own right! We should be building for a world where anyone in the north of England can hop on their nearest train to Manchester Piccadilly, and then get on the next train to Birmingham, London, or Scotland, without needing to plan ahead!Hourly is perfectly fine, it's not a metro.
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Once an underground station at Piccadilly gets built, it would be relative simple to connect it up to the Chat Moss Line and eventually build a new high-speed alignment joining the WCML closer to Preston. It's expensive, for sure, but we shouldn't kneecap the network by building Manchester Piccadilly as a terminus station because it's cheaper in the moment.here is no credible proposal whatsoever for a high speed line from Manchester to Scotland, so you can forget that.
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How are you going to get a more direct route from Manchester to Scotland? If it has to go via Manchester Airport and up and down the same tunnel as the southbound Manchester services, you're limiting the capacity of the network to partially more capacity than we have currently. We're absolutely need more connectivity in the long-run than a terminus station at Manchester can provide.Because Manchester is important enough to have services to both London and Scotland, without inconveniencing those who have no reason to divert through Manchester. And important enough that its services to London don't need to have Scotland passengers taking up seats.
Building an underground HSR stations and tunnel under Manchester is going to be more expensive than building some HSR infrastructure in open country to provide extra capacity for Scotland services by the more direct route, potentially including Manchester-Scotland services.
4 TPH Euston - OOC - B'ham Interchange - Manchester Airport - Manchester Piccadilly - Preston - Edinburgh/Glasgow sounds like a reasonable baseline to me for a future service, and I can imagine it going as high as 6 or even 8 TPH.
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