And the phrase in 4.3 "They shall be entitled to vote in such internal Party elections or ballots as the Board shall, in their absolute discretion, decide." means that even if the threshold were met, it would not legally have to be granted.
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Reform UK discussion
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Sadly, it was The Economist’s joke which was hijacked by the Daily Star, but I guess that meant it got 1000x the exposure it would otherwise have done. I just don’t want to credit the Daily Star for good ideas.
I have fond memories of sitting in a bar in Lardos, Rhodes, in the sun drinking a beer or two when I heard of her resignation.
Farage is clearly going to win the byelection, he was always going to the byelection. The question is whether someone like Binface can get enough votes to keep their deposit and whether, once the initial furore over Binface running dies down, suddenly all those awkward questions keep coming back. After all, there's not going to be all that much to talk about really when he hasn't got anyone serious to campaign against. He certainly can't run the argument that the establishment is out to get him and distract from the real issues when his main opponent in a byelection he called is a man wearing a bin on his head.
Binface winning isn't as unrealistic as it sounds. Bearing in mind 2024 Farage got 46% of the vote, so the other 54% was "not Farage". Of course this doesn't translate like-for-like and it is two years later, however the bookies seem to think there's a roughly 20% chance he actually wins.
brad465
Veteran Member
The floodgates have opened now:
x.com
Gabriel Pogrund (@Gabriel_Pogrund) on X
EXCLUSIVE The Metropolitan Police is conducting a criminal investigation into at least £500,000 in donations from George Cottrell's mother to Reform UK before last election. Two people interviewed under caution about "disguising" source or making false statements about funds.
Little bit longer than that. Binface is 7/1, so about 14%. Bookies offering 5/1 are basically taking money from those not used to betting!
Sure but I reckon there will be a lot of the 54% who will just sit this one out or spoil ballots for a lack of a proper candidate. In a universe where the Tories could put up a sensible candidate and get the other major parties to agree to not stand then I can see Farage being in very serious trouble. But that was never likely and I can't see a joke candidate actually winning this election.
Will be monumentally happy to be wrong mind you
Killingworth
Established Member
The British Democrats are going to take a few right wing votes if Kai Stephens can make a mark, see Eastern Daily Press. https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/26267288.norwich-man-stands-farage-binface-clacton/
I'll leave others to comment on what he's deleted from X etc.
I'll leave others to comment on what he's deleted from X etc.
Norwich man stands against Farage and Binface in Clacton
4 hrs ago
Local government
By Dan GrimmerSpecialist reporter (public affairs)
A Norwich man is to stand for a far-right party in the by-election triggered by Reform UK leader Nigel Farage's resignation.
Kai Stephens, 21, has been selected to stand for the British Democrats in the Clacton by-election, which will see him take on Mr Farage and Count Binface next month.
Kai Stephens (Image: British Democrats / X)
https://rdt.nutrisolution.net/6a3a4...d={{ob_click_id}}&cost={{cpc}}&obOrigUrl=true
Mr Farage quit the seat to stand again in what he described as a "people versus the establishment" fight in the Essex constituency, after coming under scrutiny about undeclared gifts and financial support before he was first elected.
But the main Westminster parties have declined to take part in the contest, so it could end up being a battle between Mr Farage and a range of fringe candidates, including Mr Stephens, Count Binface - a comedy candidate with a bin on his head - Jeremy Corbyn's brother Piers and Laurence Fox, the actor and activist.
The British Democrats were registered as a political party in 2011, with its founders including former members of the British National Party (BNP).
Announcing he was standing, Mr Stephens said: "I am proud to be representing the British Democrats as their candidate for the Clacton by-election.
"I have chosen to stand as frankly, the choices being proposed to the public are entirely subpar.
"A traitor who works in the interests of Zionism, Capitalism, Globalism, and a failed leftist comedian who copies the act of a dead man.
"By voting for Binface, you are voting for 'Have I Got News For You' liberal slop politics, that perpetually degrades and humiliates our nation.
"You are justifying a pro-immigration, slop message.
"The British Democrats will be the only option on the paper that is serious, patriotic, and most importantly, nationalist."
Mr Stephens was previously involved with right wing groups Patriotic Alternative and the Homeland Party.
In 2024, Mr Stephens was due to stand trial accused of the harassment of ex-members of Patriotic Alternative and sending offensive messages including homophobic abuse.
But the charges of abusive and homophobic insults on the Telegram messaging app were thrown out, while the Crown Prosecution service said it would offer no evidence over two allegations of online harassment, so the entire case was dropped.
Mr Stephens, who was 18 at the time of the allegations, had denied the allegations and has subsequently claimed they were politically motivated.
Kai Stephens (Image: Newsquest)
He said: "Farage was my political hero from a young age. However, after realising the threat of demographic replacement, I saw that his weak policies on immigration would do nothing to prevent Britain's decline.
"Patriotic Alternative was the first group I discovered who had sensible policies of voluntary repatriation, so I joined to play my part in what I see as saving my country.
"I later joined the Homeland Party, as I believed in its message of sensible nationalism, community politics and remigration.
"Within the past year, I have joined the British Democrats, as they are a party of seasoned, experienced community politicians, who want to stand up for Britain and our native people."
edwin_m
Veteran Member
Farage is a polarising figure. About 30% of the population strongly support him but there is a similar sized group strongly opposed. Those national proportions will be rather different in Clacton, though he has probably lost support since 2024 by not showing much interest in the place and now by the questions over his finances.Sure but I reckon there will be a lot of the 54% who will just sit this one out or spoil ballots for a lack of a proper candidate. In a universe where the Tories could put up a sensible candidate and get the other major parties to agree to not stand then I can see Farage being in very serious trouble. But that was never likely and I can't see a joke candidate actually winning this election.
Will be monumentally happy to be wrong mind you
So I do think a fair number of non-Farage voters will be motivated to turn out for the candidate with the best chance of beating him. And, in an ironic twist of voting for whoever might beat Labour in 2025-6 and who might beat the Tories before that, Binface looks like being that person here. The count for the Count might be larger than people think, though not enough for Farage to be out for the Count.
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DarloRich
Veteran Member
Farage will win easily but in doing so he will beat a man with a bin on his head and Lawrence Fox. Hard to claim a manadate for much based on that!
Farage must have thought he was playing 4d political chess but it appears he has been beaten at drafts.
Farage must have thought he was playing 4d political chess but it appears he has been beaten at drafts.
Farage is as establishment as they get. It is nonsense to pretend otherwise. Whilst I agree that Dulwich College might not be quite champions league (Eton, Harrow, Winchester etc) it is still c.11k per term per child for a day pupil and double for a boarder. That's fairly, erm, establishmenty. It isn't accessible to normal people.
I'm well aware that Dulwich isn't accessible to people on normal levels of income*. But my point is that confusing wealth with "establishment" is a category error. One can be wealthy without being of the establishment, and one can be of the establishment without wealth - class and means are not the same as each other.
If you want a demonstration of this, I suggest reading "London Falling", and the interplay of money and status in the Shamji family.
This matters, not because I want to suggest that Farage is anything better than he is, but because his anti-establishment position is much more than an act. He is quite genuinely an outsider, the more so because his toes do touch the magic circles that he'd like to be part of.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
he is absolutely not an outsider. He hasn't dragged himself up from nothing. He has had all the benefits of wealth and privilege to help him get to where he is. Farage may not be upper class but he is privileged and established. To suggest otherwise is silly.
agreed but Farage is of the elite class.
We will need to agree to disagree on the existence of any such "class", whether as a coherent group or even as a meaningful description.
This matters because trying to pin membership of such a class on Farage comprehensively misses the point of his type of political insurgency, and the nature of challenge it really poses.
brad465
Veteran Member
This is how bad a hole Farage has dug himself into - activists are being urged to leave the Manchester Mayoral election campaign and go to Clacton instead:
www.theguardian.com
Who could have imagined that Reform would be more worried about losing to a bin in "Reform UK central" than a mayoral election where they on first ballot are only a few points behind Labour.
Reform activists urged to switch focus from Manchester to Farage’s Clacton contest
Exclusive: Party hoped to mount serious challenge in mayoral race but attention has been diverted to Essex
www.theguardian.com
Who could have imagined that Reform would be more worried about losing to a bin in "Reform UK central" than a mayoral election where they on first ballot are only a few points behind Labour.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
TravelDream
Member
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He comes from a fairly wealthy family and went to a private school. After leaving school, he got a job as a banker/ commodities trader in the City of London though his father's connections.
He joined the Conservative party as a school boy before leaving it in the 90s to join more Eurosceptic/ right-wing groupings. He's been in politics for decades having first been elected an MEP in 1999.
He owns many houses - some claim at least five - with it also being alleged that he bought most of these houses with cash.
He has received millions of pounds in 'donations' and failed to declare them, or some of the properties he owns, as he was required to do so.
He is in no way a 'genuine outsider' or even 'anti-establiushment'.
He's a total grifter looking after his own self-interest. Politically, he totally fits in as eurosceptic/ individualist backbencher in the 1980s Tory party.
Thankfully this by-election is going to be a farce and is going to hurt his image as he fights against a man in a bin costume. Yes, he'll win. But the turnout is going to be miserable and he will struggle with his 'anti-establishment' messaging.
Comedy gold - Thanks Nige!
In a week where his ego has been punctured by his own desperately thin skin he now shows that, put under pressure and inspection for the very first time, his strategic political thinking is flawed and that he is a genuine part of the political establishment in deciding to put his own sorry a**e above everything else.
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Robin Edwards
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In 2010, a ‘dolphin’ named Flipper received more votes than Nigel Farage in an election here in the U.K. Flipper came second with 10,331 votes in the run for the Buckingham seat 
wanderingriver
Member
Date is now set for August 13th according to Tendering Council.
https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/news/date-set-for-clacton-constituency-by-election
All true
Hard disagree
Therein lie the key questions!
Except I think that at base it does. The focus is on immigrants because it's always easier to pick on the outsider (and there are quite possibly some fair points buried amongst the dross) but the message is falling on such fertile ground because a large section of society sees itself as having been ignored by "the establishment". That body of people is by no means homogenous but I'm sure the majority would say there is a class system and an elite and that they are either disadvantaged / disenfranchising principally because of it (or occasionally - in the case of "Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells'" 21st century successor - despite it.
D6130
Established Member
Was that the election in which he nearly died when his campaign trailer aircraft crashed?In 2010, a ‘dolphin’ named Flipper received more votes than Nigel Farage in an election here in the U.K. Flipper came second with 10,331 votes in the run for the Buckingham seat
Killingworth
Established Member
A poor imitation of Trump. His dad wasn't as wealthy but he should have had a good education at a middle ranked public school (Dulwich College 46th in the 2026 Times League table https://www.thetimes.com/best-schools-league-table?filterId=the-top-independent-secondary-schools ).
He left school at 18 with mediocre A levels (can't see what) but had gained confidence (some may suggest arrogance) to more than make up for the lack of paper qualifications. A participant in commodity broking such wheeling and dealing was far removed from banking as some would imagine in the context of a Barclays or NatWest branch on the high street. He was part and parcel of what many might consider the highly lucrative gambling part of the City of London. It's an interesting question to ask where the huge sums generated ultimately come from?
He's been very much part of that well remunerated establishment, far removed from the lives of people living in places like Clacton and Jaywick who seem to be taken in by his simplistic, provocative, bombastic rhetoric.
The danger is very many are - although not many seemingly on this Forum. He enjoys his status as an agent provocateur and "Hail fellow well met" persona. Especially when folks keep dumping money his way.
TravelDream
Member
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- 7 Aug 2016
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- 1,158
Yes. Which I think shows a poor sense of how to campaign to win. Rather than fighting for every vote, he was in a small plane over the constituency on the final day of the campaign.
We've seen that lack of sense across the recent by-elections in Manchester (x2), Caerphilly, and more. Even in Runcorn, where they squeaked in by a couple of votes instead of what should have been at least a thousand if not thousands, you can see that lack of sense in campaigning.
They've really relied on both a low turnout and a split opposition to deliver electoral victories.
What they really need is to get a Lib Dem campaign manager in. That's a party which knows how to win by-elections when the circumstances in any way favour them. Conversely, they also know when not to waste resources on no chancers.
It's one thing I think is interesting about the recent rise of the right.
Whether Trump or Farage, they are most successful in the places which are least helped by them and their policies.
Clacton and Boston and Skegness here in Britain, or West Virginia and rural Tennessee in the US.
Farage lost Buckingham in 2010 and, let's face it, he'd have no chance winning there today. It's too educated and well off.
Somehow, these men have managed to cultivate the idea that are are for the forgotten and left behind parts of their respective countries.
Here in Britain, it's hard not to blame the traditional main parties for that. The Tories promised one thing through the post-Cameron years and delivered something very different. New Labour was in many ways great for Britain, but there was no lasting meaningful change for the worst off and for deprived areas despite the great position they found themselves in in 1997. Labour under Starmer has hardly been the party of left behind Britain despite 'change' being the message. Though, in fairness, Starmer inherited a much more difficult financial situation.
He really, really, isn't part of that entity - at most, he is part of an establishment adjacent group who wish to become a new establishment. The tell was in a quote of Tice I saw this morning, saying how nice Cottrell and his mother are as old aristocrats, but that they're being kept out by the establishment. He demonstrated both his unerring instinct for talking rubbish, and also how "the establishment" is something much more specific than "them with money"
Killingworth
Established Member
Prof Joab used to say ”It all Depends on What You Mean by…” on re BBC's “The Brains Trust” back in the 1950s.
I've expanded on that line to win a few debates.Define the establishment. Which establishment? Define the working class. Define professionals or managers. Define workers. Define what is left or right wing. Define who's British. I could go on. We may all use labels that others won't identify with in the same way. It's fairly easy to muddy the waters.
I think there's a very interesting "What if..." scenario there to be written. Without Farage does UKIP become the force that goes from just under a 1m votes in 2010 to 3.8m in 2015? Or from 13 MEPs in 2009 to 24 MEPs in 2014? The things that really put the frighteners on the Tories, embolded the Tory Eurosceptic factions? Does Leave win in 2016 without that context and without Farage campaigning for Leave? Does the referendum even happen?
Reckon it's a fascinating "What it..." scenario to think about if Farage had died in that accident.*
*To be clear as much as I dislike the man and his politics, I don't actively wish him harm or for him to have actually died in that crash!
Absolutely. But in this instance, I'm pressing the point because dismissing Farage and Reform as "establishment" understates their radicalism and dangerousness
== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
I'm less charitably inclined towards him!
What interests me more is that 2010 is also when the Tory Party turned firmly Eurosceptic, and how it was Tories like Steve Baker who did so much of the hard work that made Cameron concede that referendum in the first place. In that alternate universe, we also need to consider that the major fear from the right was Nick Griffin and the BNP, who were at an all time high politically.
To consider the "what if", I'm left wondering whether UKIP stole the oxygen from the BNP and helped undermine their brand of racism, or helped turbocharge the little Englander nationalism that has become so prevalent in recent years.
martin butler
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Establishment: old money, old school tie, old networks, People with genuine wealth, often handed down through generations,
What Farage, and those similar to him are is people who are new to money but don't have the networks, or acceptance of those above
Farage I would say has been lucky, and no doubt ruthless in his attempt to become relevant, first as a right-wing Conservative, then I would guess the old Etonians, blocked his path so he started UKIP, with other like-minded people finding that xenophobia is a potent force, if you convince people to blame others more like them, than say an old Etonian,
What Farage, and those similar to him are is people who are new to money but don't have the networks, or acceptance of those above
Farage I would say has been lucky, and no doubt ruthless in his attempt to become relevant, first as a right-wing Conservative, then I would guess the old Etonians, blocked his path so he started UKIP, with other like-minded people finding that xenophobia is a potent force, if you convince people to blame others more like them, than say an old Etonian,