Conwy Valley Line - Time to say good bye?

[yorksrob]

The electrification may be done but the train rollout isn't. They've just last week got a single 398 running in service for half the day. Once they're properly available then the 231s can be moved to mainline + Ebbw vale and Maesteg journeys which then will mean more 197s available.

The problem with the Conwy valley line is that a train every 3 hours is just a non-existent service as far as most are concerned, that's like a rural bus that runs once a week to take the elderly to market and back, it's not a useful service for most people. If it ran at 2 hourly or 1 hourly more ideally than it probably see more usage.

Though I will say, it doesn't need to be an either-or, why not the current train offering + an electric bus to fill in the gaps?

We have a similar sparse service on the Whitby line round my way (I may have mentioned it on the forum before), however for its faults, Northern have so far managed to run a reasonably reliable service on it and it is well used.

They probably both need a better frequency though.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Jul 2026 ==

I wouldn't, the whole point would be that after the initial period the bus service either is justified on it's own merits or travel patterns have changed sufficiently it's redundant.

Agree with this (connection to remaining Railway being legally protected)

Again, I wouldn't guarantee the service after the initial period expired. That a railway was built somewhere 150 years ago is no indicator of current travel patterns. Much will have changed on the route in the time the railway operated, and in many areas much will be likely to change in the 10 years after the railway closed.

That's just an invitation to degrade the service so that people are forced to change their travel patterns.

It would be a toothless guarantee.

 

[Krokodil]

Before I get accused of going off-topic, this is very relevant to the Conwy Valley proposal because the railway is sometimes very much in the settlement and sometimes it's the other side of the river from it.

Dolgarrog is an interesting question. The station is on the opposite side of the river to its namesake, but on the same side as other small settlements like Maenan. The train is the only option for those now that the X19/T19 has been stripped down to a token 19X (and probably partly why Dolgarrog station is seeing improved passenger numbers). Dolgarrog village itself is already served by the 19. To be honest, if you ran a bus instead of the train it would probably be worth running it via Bodnant.

 

[Russel]

Each Conwy Valley service I've used for a long time now has been well loaded, the service needs increasing, not downgraded to a bus route.

 

[Belperpete]

The line is reasonably well used between Llandudno and Betws, beyond that in my experience the trains are almost empty. The current three hourly service, with rubbish bus connections at Blaenau, makes it unusable for most people. If I want to get to or from Llandudno, for example, traveline will invariably put me on a bus to Bangor and a train or bus to the junction, which is an incredibly circuitous route, but is still faster and more frequent than the direct route via Blaenau.

The proposed timetable alterations recognised that, by making the service between Betws and Llandudno more attractive, but to the detriment of those wanting to travel to/from Blaenau and beyond. So better connections at Bettws, even worse at Blaenau!

My solution would be not to close the line, but cut it back to Bettws. This would enable a more frequent service, at times better suited to the majority of the lines users. It would be a crying shame to close the line between Bettws and Blaenau, but as a local I have to admit that the current service is neither use nor ornament. Unfortunately there just doesn't seem to be the political will to spend the kind of money that would be needed to make it useful.

What is needed is an hourly Traws Cymru bus service between Llandudno and Porthmadog, connecting with the T2, T22 and other services at Porthmadog, and trains and buses at Llandudno Junction and Llandudno. It would also connect at Porthmadog with the upcoming Traws Cymru long-distance coach service to Carmarthen. The old X1 through services between Porthmadog and Llandudno were reasonably popular, but unfortunately were a victim of the demise of Express motors, and were politically unpopular as they were taking significant traffic from the subsided trains.

Not sure that electric buses would cope with the route over the Crimea (Prague is putting in trolley buses for its hilly routes, but that might be too costly for TfW). And TfW got it's fingers badly burnt with the T22 electric buses.

Remember that this is Wales, not England, and the Welsh government has a different attitude to public transport. TfW is aiming for a Swiss style integrated transport system. We are already seeing some small fruits of this, with combined bus and rail fares, bus services appearing on station departure screens and rail journey planners, etc. I would expect any Porthmadog to Llandudno Traws Cymru service to be similarly integrated with rail services from the start.

 

[cactustwirly]

I think the problem with the bus is that it's not an attractive option. Most operators opt for the cheapest model possible, not like Europeans who go with heavy chassis models.

Travelling from Llandudno to Blaneu on a clapped out E200 would be my idea of hell, whereas the train is an attractive option. People on her are acting like it's a like for like replacement it's not.

 

[Russel]

I think the problem with the bus is that it's not an attractive option. Most operators opt for the cheapest model possible, not like Europeans who go with heavy chassis models.

Travelling from Llandudno to Blaneu on a clapped out E200 would be my idea of hell, whereas the train is an attractive option. People on her are acting like it's a like for like replacement it's not.

You raise some good points here, I did the whole S1 from Betws-Y-Coed to Caernarfon last year on an ex-London Plaxton President that crawled up the hills and had a leaky roof, it really didn't say "attractive, high quality service" to me.

 

[The exile]

I wouldn't, the whole point would be that after the initial period the bus service either is justified on it's own merits or travel patterns have changed sufficiently it's redundant.

Agree with this (connection to remaining Railway being legally protected)

Again, I wouldn't guarantee the service after the initial period expired. That a railway was built somewhere 150 years ago is no indicator of current travel patterns. Much will have changed on the route in the time the railway operated, and in many areas much will be likely to change in the 10 years after the railway closed.

That “guarantee” (which isn’t one - merely the certainty that the service can’t be withdrawn at the drop of a hat) is one of the major reasons why a train service is valued more highly than a bus. If your connection to the outside world can be withdrawn “on a whim” that’s hardly an encouragement to build your life around it, which is what we need people to do in order to reduce car usage.

 

[Belperpete]

I think the problem with the bus is that it's not an attractive option. Most operators opt for the cheapest model possible, not like Europeans who go with heavy chassis models.

Travelling from Llandudno to Blaneu on a clapped out E200 would be my idea of hell, whereas the train is an attractive option. People on her are acting like it's a like for like replacement it's not.

Traws Cymru services are operated by modern government-supplied buses. I certainly prefer travelling to Machynlleth on the Traws Cymru T2 rather than a clapped out 158 with dodgy Aircon and faulty WiFi and charging points, and am dreading the introduction of the 197 bone shakers.

 

[stevieinselby]

My solution would be not to close the line, but cut it back to Bettws. This would enable a more frequent service, at times better suited to the majority of the lines users. It would be a crying shame to close the line between Bettws and Blaenau, but as a local I have to admit that the current service is neither use nor ornament. Unfortunately there just doesn't seem to be the political will to spend the kind of money that would be needed to make it useful.

With much of the route south of Betws-y-Coed being in tunnel, it's probably fair to say that going by bus would be more scenic!

Not sure that electric buses would cope with the route over the Crimea (Prague is putting in trolley buses for its hilly routes, but that might be too costly for TfW). And TfW got it's fingers badly burnt with the T22 electric buses.

What's wrong with electric buses on the T22? It seems to be running quite happily with Yutong E12s. Being able to use regenerative braking means hills aren't necessarily the killer for electric vehicles that people sometimes assume.

I think the problem with the bus is that it's not an attractive option. Most operators opt for the cheapest model possible, not like Europeans who go with heavy chassis models.

Travelling from Llandudno to Blaneu on a clapped out E200 would be my idea of hell, whereas the train is an attractive option. People on her are acting like it's a like for like replacement it's not.

Then don't put clapped out Enviro 200s on it. TfW generally specify decent Yutong E12s or Volvo B8 Evoras for the TrawsCymru services, so no reason to think that an important route like this wouldn't have buses to at least that standard.

You raise some good points here, I did the whole S1 from Betws-Y-Coed to Caernarfon last year on an ex-London Plaxton President that crawled up the hills and had a leaky roof, it really didn't say "attractive, high quality service" to me.

IMX, it's unusual to get knackered buses running on longer routes, although the Sherpa routes can be a bit less careful about allocations than TrawsCymru – for a start, they aren't contracted the same way, and secondly being seasonal it's harder to justify the expenditure on new buses if they are not going to be used year-round.

 

[Belperpete]

That “guarantee” (which isn’t one - merely the certainty that the service can’t be withdrawn at the drop of a hat) is one of the major reasons why a train service is valued more highly than a bus. If your connection to the outside world can be withdrawn “on a whim” that’s hardly an encouragement to build your life around it, which is what we need people to do in order to reduce car usage.

Except that train services can also be withdrawn at the drop of a hat, Viz the reductions in services on the Conwy Valley and Cambrian.

Where I live, the Traws Cymru services have a much better reputation than the train services.

 

[yorksrob]

We've had a complaint about a random number of issues - many of which could happen on any route, lots of which aren't related to the line's infrastructure at all.

We've had local passengers confirming that the trains are well used anyway.

This whole thread is just a solution looking for a problem.

 

[Krokodil]

This whole thread is just a solution looking for a problem.

Indeed. And it appears to be classic "provide poor service; line doesn't reach potential; suggest closure".

Try providing a decent frequency (particularly where Betws-y-Coed is concerned), get the connections to work, and don't find every excuse to cancel services (filling in for non-AC 158s won't be an issue from September), then see how patronage does. If a two train service can be timed to cross at Llanrwst around 08:30 or so (and therefore 16:00 in the afternoon) then there might be some school traffic to pick up. This fills space at quieter times of day.

The line is reasonably well used between Llandudno and Betws, beyond that in my experience the trains are almost empty.

While my observations generally tally with yours, the station usage statistics for Blaenau (47k) are almost as high as Betws (50k). It would be useful to know why that is. It's possible that the guard is more likely to get around to the passengers from Blaenau to sell them a ticket or issue them a concession. It's also possible that as Blaenau is used mostly by locals, Betws by tourists, the Blaenau passengers are more evenly spread between trains than the tourists visiting Betws. Llandudno Junction is supposed to be equipped with ticket barriers at some point in the distant future which will go some way to ensuring that local journeys are actually paid for - more revenue blocks at Llandudno would be useful too.

 

[Mikey C]

I read Roger Ford's very interesting article about the bus to Tilbury Riveside:

Every route 99. 4 of 25.

Tuesday 10th March 2026 I’m pretty sure this route 99 will be one of the least used to be featured in this year’s fortnightly series looking at all Britain’s 25 bus services beari…

busandtrainuser.com

A decision was taken in the early nineties that (since BR wanted to close the branch, on the grounds that it was a railway built to serve a ferry terminal that no longer had any ferries, due to the Dartford Crossing obliterating the need for boats shuttling over the river) a bus would have to run at the same frequency as the former railway line. Forever.

The 99 is protected by an Act of Parliament. Unlike normal bus routes, cutting/withdrawing this service would require all of the expensive faffing about needed to close an inch of railway line

So the argument that replacing this infrequent branch line would automatically see a bus route that would be scrapped shortly afterwards isn't strictly true. Why couldn't we have a similar Act of Parliament to ensure that a replacement bus was at least as frequent as the trains had been (on the days that the line was fully open, there were sufficient staff, the operator didn't have a shortage of stock...)

Otherwise this is a perfect example of the Sunk Cost Fallacy. We have to spend a few more million fixing the track that washed away, since we've previously spent tens of millions on propping it up, and we just cross our fingers that we absolutely definitely won't be spaffing yet more millions on it in months to come

Compare and contrast the hysteria on here every time the sea wall at Dawlish sees the line closed for a few hours ("we must spend hundreds on millions on an alternative BECAUSE RESILIENCE!") with the shoulder shrugging every time this fragile branch fails

Exactly

I've no strong opinions about this particular branch, but it's a nonsense that bus replacement can't be considered because the bus could be cancelled next year, run down, or operated by clapped out buses.

That 99 bus does connect to the Gravesend to Tilbury foot ferry. Or rather it did, as the ferry stopped operating 2 years ago.

 

[Russel]

This whole thread is just a solution looking for a problem.

Indeed.

In fact, the suggestion of closing any line would be so politically toxic these days that I think we can rule out 99% of the "shall we close branch X because of Y?" proposals we see on here.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Nobody has mentioned freight yet.
The prospect of moving slate waste from Blaenau seems to have been resolved into road transport from Blaenau to Llandudno Jn, with a rail service from there, so no use of the branch.
But there's still the long-term development of Trawsfynydd power station site to consider, and I think it is being considered for one of the smaller modular nuclear power stations developed by Rolls Royce.
Strategically, the line needs to be retained against the possibility of that traffic (fuel rods etc), as far as Ffestiniog.
That's actually a UK government (energy) matter rather than for WG.

 

[Belperpete]

Indeed. And it appears to be classic "provide poor service; line doesn't reach potential; suggest closure".

Try providing a decent frequency (particularly where Betws-y-Coed is concerned), get the connections to work, and don't find every excuse to cancel services (filling in for non-AC 158s won't be an issue from September), then see how patronage does. If a two train service can be timed to cross at Llanrwst around 08:30 or so (and therefore 16:00 in the afternoon) then there might be some school traffic to pick up. This fills space at quieter times of day.

I understand that the Conwy Valley service was cut from a two train service because the signalling at Llanrwst was deemed no longer fit for routine crossing of trains (although it can still be used for occasional specials). Unfortunately nobody seems willing to spend the money to renew it, which is galling considering the amount of investment being thrown at South Wales. However, I suspect the difference is that improving Llanrwst is seen as a poor return on the investment, based on the likely ridership.

There is an hourly bus service between Porthmadog and Caernarfon, and Porthmadog and Blaenau. What is needed is a connecting hourly service between Blaenau and Llandudno. However, even with trains crossing at Llanrwst, that isn't going to give an hourly service. To get an hourly train service on the Blaenau branch would need substantial investment, which frankly wouldn't be justified. It would be much cheaper to provide an hourly bus service.

Meanwhile TfW are throwing money at bus services in the area. The latest being the through Bangor to Carmarthen service. But they won't support a bus service between Porthmadog and Llandudno, despite the proven need for such a service, because it is politically unacceptable to compete with the subsided train service.

And it is politically unacceptable to abandon the train service. So it just gets the minimum needed to keep it going (although that minimum has added up to a significant sum over the years).

So us exasperated locals are stuck between a rock and a hard place, we are stuck with a train service that is next to useless, and with no realistic prospect of it being improved. If only that rubbish train service could be abandoned, we would almost certainly get a decent Traws Cymru hourly bus service in its place.

 

[yorksrob]

I understand that the Conwy Valley service was cut from a two train service because the signalling at Llanrwst was deemed no longer fit for routine crossing of trains (although it can still be used for occasional specials). Unfortunately nobody seems willing to spend the money to renew it, which is galling considering the amount of investment being thrown at South Wales. However, I suspect the difference is that improving Llanrwst is seen as a poor return on the investment, based on the likely ridership.

There is an hourly bus service between Porthmadog and Caernarfon, and Porthmadog and Blaenau. What is needed is a connecting hourly service between Blaenau and Llandudno. However, even with trains crossing at Llanrwst, that isn't going to give an hourly service. To get an hourly train service on the Blaenau branch would need substantial investment, which frankly wouldn't be justified. It would be much cheaper to provide an hourly bus service.

Meanwhile TfW are throwing money at bus services in the area. The latest being the through Bangor to Carmarthen service. But they won't support a bus service between Porthmadog and Llandudno, despite the proven need for such a service, because it is politically unacceptable to compete with the subsided train service.

And it is politically unacceptable to abandon the train service. So it just gets the minimum needed to keep it going (although that minimum has added up to a significant sum over the years).

So us exasperated locals are stuck between a rock and a hard place, we are stuck with a train service that is next to useless, and with no realistic prospect of it being improved. If only that rubbish train service could be abandoned, we would almost certainly get a decent Traws Cymru hourly bus service in its place.

Campaign for them to put in a loop.

I'd like a better service to Whitby, but the answer isn't to replace it with a bus.

 

[Krokodil]

I understand that the Conwy Valley service was cut from a two train service

When exactly was it a two-train service?

I don't mean when it interworked with the Llandudno-Holyhead stopper and passed once a day at Llanrwst, I mean having more than the present six trains per day. As far as I'm aware it has always been the same number of regular passenger trains on the line going back to the year dot, plus excursions. Freight used to be considerable, hence why there were once four passing loops instead of the surviving one.

If only that rubbish train service could be abandoned, we would almost certainly get a decent Traws Cymru hourly bus service in its place.

There was a TrawsCymru bus. It was uneconomic and therefore abandoned.

 

[The exile]

Except that train services can also be withdrawn at the drop of a hat, Viz the reductions in services on the Conwy Valley and Cambrian.

Where I live, the Traws Cymru services have a much better reputation than the train services.

As far as I am aware there is still a scheduled train service on both the Conwy Valley and the Cambrian - while franchised it would also have to had to conform with franchising requirements - no idea what the arrangements between TfW and its political masters are.

 

[stevieinselby]

While my observations generally tally with yours, the station usage statistics for Blaenau (47k) are almost as high as Betws (50k). It would be useful to know why that is. It's possible that the guard is more likely to get around to the passengers from Blaenau to sell them a ticket or issue them a concession. It's also possible that as Blaenau is used mostly by locals, Betws by tourists, the Blaenau passengers are more evenly spread between trains than the tourists visiting Betws. Llandudno Junction is supposed to be equipped with ticket barriers at some point in the distant future which will go some way to ensuring that local journeys are actually paid for - more revenue blocks at Llandudno would be useful too.

If most/all passengers are travelling to Llandudno Junction or Llandudno itself then that doesn't seem hugely contradictory. Don't forget that most passengers from Blaenau Ffestiniog will be on the train between Llandudno Junction and Betws-y-Coed, as well as those only travelling from Betws-y-Coed as well.
Looking at the total ridership, Blaenau Ffestiniog and Betws-y-Coed are each responsible for about 1/3 of the passengers, Llanrwst (next stop north of Betws-y-Coed) about 1/6, and the other seven stations about 1/6 between them. So arriving into Llanrwst you'll still have nearly 90% of the passengers who were on the train leaving Llandudno Junction, and then as you pull away from the following stop you're down to about 35%.

There was a TrawsCymru bus. It was uneconomic and therefore abandoned.

My guess would be that a lot of people didn't know about it. Journey times were similar to the train and they roughly dovetailed to complement each other (although the bus had shorter hours of operation so only ran 4 journeys through to Blaenau Ffestiniog compared to 6 on the train), but if people were just searching on any train search website or app they would be told about the train but not the bus. I don't know how well promoted the service was locally, but without interavailable ticketing with the trains and inclusion in the national rail timetable, it's not surprising if it struggled for passengers. That's a completely different scenario from replacing the current 3-hourly train service with an hourly bus service.

 

[Krokodil]

Looking at the total ridership, Blaenau Ffestiniog and Betws-y-Coed are each responsible for about 1/3 of the passengers, Llanrwst (next stop north of Betws-y-Coed) about 1/6

Interesting to note that Betws's figures are record-breaking, Blaenaus were slightly stronger in the early 2010s, and Llanrwst used to be the strongest of the three - seeing similar passenger figures in the late 1990s as Betws does today but collapsing shortly afterwards. I've a hunch that the loss of school traffic may have been around then. Glan Conwy saw a 90% collapse in passenger numbers around the same time, probably for similar reasons.

Dolgarrog is showing some apparently very strong growth. It is on the edge of a fare cluster so you'd expect split ticketing to skew it a little but my experience was that while such split ticketing did exist, it was quite limited. I did however witness some significant footfall growth at the station over the last couple of years. That may be partly down to the loss of the T19, but another factor may be that the bridge to its namesake village is now a proper public footpath, instead of something only known about by locals.

There's a lot of potential for growth on this line, if it's given a decent service.

but if people were just searching on any train search website or app

I mean, I managed to use the old X19 many years ago when arriving at Blaenau with a long wait for the next train to Betws. But then I tended to use Google Maps to look up journeys.

but without interavailable ticketing with the trains

There was mutual acceptance of return tickets between the T19 and the trains.

 

[30907]

When exactly was it a two-train service?

The 1982 timetable shows 5tpd but increased to 8tpd SX, 6tpd SO in summer.

Not sure how long that lasted.

 

[Farigiraf]

I understand that the Conwy Valley service was cut from a two train service because the signalling at Llanrwst was deemed no longer fit for routine crossing of trains (although it can still be used for occasional specials). Unfortunately nobody seems willing to spend the money to renew it, which is galling considering the amount of investment being thrown at South Wales. However, I suspect the difference is that improving Llanrwst is seen as a poor return on the investment, based on the likely ridership.

There is an hourly bus service between Porthmadog and Caernarfon, and Porthmadog and Blaenau. What is needed is a connecting hourly service between Blaenau and Llandudno. However, even with trains crossing at Llanrwst, that isn't going to give an hourly service. To get an hourly train service on the Blaenau branch would need substantial investment, which frankly wouldn't be justified. It would be much cheaper to provide an hourly bus service.

Meanwhile TfW are throwing money at bus services in the area. The latest being the through Bangor to Carmarthen service. But they won't support a bus service between Porthmadog and Llandudno, despite the proven need for such a service, because it is politically unacceptable to compete with the subsided train service.

And it is politically unacceptable to abandon the train service. So it just gets the minimum needed to keep it going (although that minimum has added up to a significant sum over the years).

So us exasperated locals are stuck between a rock and a hard place, we are stuck with a train service that is next to useless, and with no realistic prospect of it being improved. If only that rubbish train service could be abandoned, we would almost certainly get a decent Traws Cymru hourly bus service in its place.

In that case, a decent compromise would probably be to bring back the T19 and run it in the hours when the train doesn't run. Not perfect - journey times won't be perfectly clockface, some local stations wouldn't be able to be served, and bus services are of course more vulnerable to regular small delays here and there, which can disrupt an integrated network. However it could work as a compromise that doesn't require either pushing some people who travel by choice back into their cars or irresponsibly throwing around £millions.
E.g. from Llandudno:
- 07:23, 10:23, 13:23, 16:23 and 19:23 rail
- 06:23, 08:23, 09:23, 11:23, 12:23, 14:23, 15:23, 17:23, 18:23, 20:23 and 21:23 bus
You'd need to clearly present the rail+bus method of working on any promotional material or travel websites, in order to explain the occasional 2h gaps in the bus service.

There'd be a few logistical challenges - such as establishing ticket acceptance across both transport modes - but that may actually be a good thing as it'd bring ticketing simplification to the region.

I don't consider either keeping things as they are, or closing the line, a suitable choice:

The low frequency of rail is an obvious drawback, plus the fact that the current timetable prevents timed connections with both the Sherpa'r Wyddfa at Betws and the T22 at Blaenau - not that a few extra buses would necessarily fix the latter problem, but a 1-per-hour Llandudno-Blaenau connection and a 1bph T22 service means that connection times won't ever be unusably poor.

At the same time, closing the line has various challenges associated with it as detailed upthread, but also there are simply a high percentage of people that are okay with 1.5 hours on a 197 and then 30 mins on a bus, but won't consider doing two straight hours on even the most modern of buses - I appreciate that the Yutongs are great buses, but at the end of the day it isn't a coach so will never really have the onboard experience suitable for 1h+ trips. Maintaining the rail service every 2-3 hours keeps these travellers happy without inconveniencing others.

These travellers are the kinds that provide growth - as you can't run a successful transport network by only catering for those who don't drive and assuming that nobody else will bother. Push them away, and political support for an integrated rail&bus network also fades away as less and less people care about what goes on in the world of public transport. Now that doesn't mean every transport hub needs to have a multistorey car park and so on - there are a number of ways to encourage drivers to use more sustainable & efficient modes of transport which don't negatively affect non-driver travellers' experiences.

 

[Belperpete]

One of the big problems with the relatively short-lived T19 is that, like the train service, it had rubbish connections at Blaenau, whereas the X1 was a through service from Porthmadog to Llandudno.

Porthmadog has become a major bus interchange, with services to Caernarfon/Bangor, Harlech/Barmouth, Dolgellau/Aberystwyth, Blaenau, Pwllheli, Morfa Bychan, and the Sherpa services. Not to forget the Cambrian line. A through service from Porthmadog has the potential to pull in a lot of people not just from Porthmadog and Penrhyndeudraeth en-route, but from the wider bus catchment area, as proved by the X1. Likewise for people travelling from the Llandudno area, Porthmadog offers far more possibilities for onward travel than Blaenau does. And a through Llandudno to Porthmadog service would also provide a very useful feeder into the upcoming Carmarthen service.

If Porthmadog to Blaenau can justify an hourly service, then Porthmadog to Llandudno via Bettws and Llanrwst certainly should. But the Conwy Valley line is never going to be able to offer that. There is no way that the money needed to provide the extra passing loops and trains is ever going to be justified. Blaenau is not Merddyr - it has a fraction of the population that justified the investment down there. And you would still end up with waits at Blaenau (anyone who has had to wait an hour in Blaenau on a cold and wet evening will not easily forget the experience). The only way that we are going to get an hourly Porthmadog to Llandudno service is by bus. And the Conwy Valley line is currently a blocker to that.

I am not advocating closure of the whole line, just the bit between Bettws and Blaenau, that carries more fresh air than passengers. On my last trip back from Llandudno, by the time we got to Blaenau I was the only person in my carriage. Keep the scenic bit to Bettws, that carries a reasonable number of passengers, and has a useful bus interchange immediately outside the station, and use the shorter journey time to provide a more frequent service at times better suited to Bettws passengers. And then provide an hourly through bus service from Porthmadog to Llandudno, either integrated with or replacing the Porthmadog to Blaenau leg of the T22.

Unfortunately people seem blinkered by the old railway lines, rather than where people nowadays actually want to go. The upcoming through service from Bangor to Carmarthen is a prime example of this. How many people in Bangor want to go to Carmarthen I wonder? Swansea yes, Cardiff yes, but Carmarthen? Likewise how many people in South Wales want to go to Bangor? I suspect that Llandudno would be a far more popular destination. But the planners are blinkered by where the train used to go to - a service that failed. Likewise in considering the future of the Conwy Valley line, we must not be blinkered by Blaenau as the final destination. That kind of thinking is why the T19 failed. Trying to emulate a failed or failing train service is hardly a recipe for success.

 

[Krokodil]

But the planners are blinkered by where the train used to go to - a service that failed.

There were never through trains between Bangor and Carmarthen via the coast.

 

[Harpo]

There were never through trains between Bangor and Carmarthen via the coast.

Were there even through services between Bangor and Aberystwyth?

Even today there’s only about one connection a day each way that isn’t an extended fester at Machynlleth.

 

[Belperpete]

In that case, a decent compromise would probably be to bring back the T19 and run it in the hours when the train doesn't run. Not perfect -
You'd need to clearly present the rail+bus method of working on any promotional material or travel websites, in order to explain the occasional 2h gaps in the bus service.
There'd be a few logistical challenges - such as establishing ticket acceptance across both transport modes - but that may actually be a good thing as it'd bring ticketing simplification to the region.

These kind of things aren't a problem in Wales, where TfW run both the buses and trains. Integrated ticketing, timetables and journey planning is already being rolled out.

I don't consider either keeping things as they are, or closing the line, a suitable choice:

The low frequency of rail is an obvious drawback, plus the fact that the current timetable prevents timed connections with both the Sherpa'r Wyddfa at Betws and the T22 at Blaenau - not that a few extra buses would necessarily fix the latter problem, but a 1-per-hour Llandudno-Blaenau connection and a 1bph T22 service means that connection times won't ever be unusably poor.

I am afraid that your reasoning is blinkered by seeing Blaenau as the destination, because that is where the trains go. It is not where the people go. Blaenau is a very small town in the middle of nowhere with very poor transport links. Blaenau is never going to justify an hourly service to Llandudno.

The very poor connections between the T22 and the Conwy Valley service are the reason that it is almost always quicker to go the long route around via Bangor to get to Llandudno. Even with an hourly T22 service, the connections are disappointingly poor. Running a service to Blaenau is a bit like running a service to Scotland, and terminating it at Preston, saying you can get a connection to Glasgow or Edinburgh from there (are you listening Avanti?). You run the services to Glasgow or Edinburgh because they are the transport hubs. The more unnecessary connections you add into a journey, the longer and more unreliable you make it. What is needed is a through service between the transport hubs of Llandudno and Porthmadog..

 

[Krokodil]

Were there even through services between Bangor and Aberystwyth?

I doubt it, there would have been a reversal required. Two if continuing on to Carmarthen.

Even today there’s only about one connection a day each way that isn’t an extended fester at Machynlleth.

It's not quite that bad any more, most connections are five minutes at Dovey Junction - perfect. Looking through the weekday timetable now, the main issue is that the Aberystwyths aren't quite hourly, and these gaps coincide with what would otherwise have been a connection at Dovey Junction. There are ECS moves in the paths of what would be the 10:27 and 16:27 from Aber - presumably crew training runs that won't be an issue come September. The 14:27 from Aber is presumably missing due to a freight train needing to shunt at Aber.

 

[Farigiraf]

These kind of things aren't a problem in Wales, where TfW run both the buses and trains. Integrated ticketing, timetables and journey planning is already being rolled out.

That's great to see.

It is not where the people go. Blaenau is a very small town in the middle of nowhere with very poor transport links. Blaenau is never going to justify an hourly service to Llandudno.

It is however where some people come from. Not a large amount - only a couple thousand - but still good enough to justify a decent transport link. There's no denying the town's past its prime, but it's in the middle of Snowdonia National Park, and has a heritage rail connection, so it does have some potential.

The cost of implementing an hourly train service is dubious, but I see no reason why it doesn't deserve an hourly overall transport connection via a combination of rail and bus. Certainly I do recognise that potential traffic to the Cambrian Coast would be much higher though.

The very poor connections between the T22 and the Conwy Valley service are the reason that it is almost always quicker to go the long route around via Bangor to get to Llandudno.

Without a national bus+train timetable rewrite (which would be cool, but requires Swiss levels of planning) it'll never be easy to design a bus route that connects with trains at both Minffordd and Blaenau Ffestiniog, without sacrificing the connections at Betws-y-Coed.

I still think it's worth keeping the train service going as it is right now for a number of reasons - for one, it costs more to close than keep open frankly, particularly if Trawsfynydd's revival gets the go-ahead - if you only cut the Betws-Blaenau section you'll really not be saving very much at all in the long term. Plus for the other reasons I detailed previously - main one being that 1.5h in a 197 is a relatively pleasant ride but 1.5h in a Yutong isn't too great. I'd probably be okay with it if it resulted in higher frequencies, but unlike many people I actually enjoy bus travel.

But yes, if you were to run a bus to fill in those gaps in the Conwy Valley timetable (or replace it altogether), there's little reason to not run it all the day to Porthmadog, either replacing the T22 or complementing it. Then the remaining rail departures could just have a well-timed connection to an onward bus at Blaenau. The good thing about regional bus development is that you can try out a lot of things before running out of money, unlike with a rail project where you have to be absolutely sure you're getting the best value for money before committing tens of millions to a project.

The upcoming through service from Bangor to Carmarthen is a prime example of this. How many people in Bangor want to go to Carmarthen I wonder? Swansea yes, Cardiff yes, but Carmarthen? Likewise how many people in South Wales want to go to Bangor? I suspect that Llandudno would be a far more popular destination. But the planners are blinkered by where the train used to go to - a service that failed.

A five-hour ride is already approaching the territory of bus/coach travel that only the most budget-conscious Flixbus/NatEx travellers will pick - even 2-3h for medium-distance journeys is pushing it with the limited legroom and unreliable toilets that can be expected. Extending to Swansea/Cardiff, or diverting to Llandudno, is unlikely to win over that many more travellers compared to a well-timed connection at a rail station.

There's certainly a market for it - particularly as the bus goes through Aber with its many students - but it's not a substitute to a more comfortable transport option that far more people may actually pick instead of driving the entire distance. Only a rail service solves that issue, but for the £2bil it would cost to build, I can think of a few rail projects that would bring far more cars off the road. One for the long-term bucket list.

 

[Krokodil]

It is however where some people come from. Not a large amount - only a couple thousand

More than that, Blaenau sees 47k passengers, just short of Betws.

I can see the benefit of extending the T22 to Llandudno to make through journeys easier. Truncating the Conwy Valley Line at Betws would allow this busy tourist town to have an hourly service and I've no doubt that Llanrwst and Glan Conwy would also see their passenger numbers rocket back to 1990s levels if they got such a frequency. It would also improve reliability, both of the train service (197s are hopeless in autumn) and of the infrastructure. With all of the flood prevention work done by Network Rail, the biggest issues of infrastructure resilience are the structural condition of Ffestiniog Tunnel (which will be subject to a 20mph PSR from December, such is the concern) and the north portal flooding.

However I'd rather not start closing lines willy-nilly. Regauging the top section to narrow gauge would be an interesting idea to reduce costs and possibly improve tourist ridership on that bit - a bit like how the Harz narrow gauge railways took over Quedlinburg-Gernrode, regauged it and now run a railcar to replace the former standard gauge service.

It's theoretically possible (at least on the current infrastructure, the 20mph PSR would probably cripple it) to run hourly to Betws and two-hourly to Blaenau, so long as you can tolerate them not quite being clockface because you can't quite get from North Llanrwst to Blaenau and back again within an hour - treat the shorter run as a summer additional, if you like. This would require three units. A two hourly service throughout would require two units and isn't the most productive use of them, however it makes it possible to have trains and buses connect properly, you could even match the services to those on the Cambrian. The most productive use of two units would be 2tp3h.