The Future of Pendolinos (Class 390): Post West Coast

[TrainViation]

Once the Class 390s are finished with from the West Coast franchise, where would they likely go after that?

Depending on the quality of the units in the year 204x, they might still be able to run for other operators with fully electrified networks like ScotRail *ideally*.

Is there any other likely options which could happen?

 

[Sorcerer]

The Pendolino fleet will be about 40 years old by the time HS2 comes around which is when the intercity services of the West Coast Main Line will be transferring over to that route. By that point they might not have much life left in them, and if they are used elsewhere they will be running without tilt. Otherwise I think it's safe to say that the fleet will definitely live out it's days as the west coast flagship fleet before earning their retirement.

 

[JamesT]

Once the Class 390s are finished with from the West Coast franchise, where would they likely go after that?

Depending on the quality of the units in the year 204x, they might still be able to run for other operators with fully electrified networks like ScotRail *ideally*.

Is there any other likely options which could happen?

Almost certainly the scrap heap.

There is unlikely to be anywhere in the UK running intercity trains where they would want 40-year-old rolling stock. Scotrail’s procurement of the 222s is explicitly an interim step before buying a new zero emission fleet.
ECML, MML, GWML have all had or are having new stock.

 

[AlexSJW]

Chris Gibb argued that the government's current plans for HS2 trains will cause a severe capacity crisis. He proposed utilising the Class 390 Pendolino fleet on HS2. To resolve this without spending billions rebuilding old station platforms, Gibb proposed:

The "Turbo" Pendolino Upgrades:
i. Refit existing Class 390 Pendolinos with upgraded traction systems and bogies.
ii. Run them at 155 mph in non-tilt mode on the new HS2 line.
iii. Run them at 125 mph minimum (with tilt) on the classic WCML.

The 2040 Pendolino Replacement:
Because HS2 phase 1 delays mean it won't fully open until roughly 2040 -coinciding exactly with when the current Pendolinos reach the end of their working life:
i. Keep the current order of 54 eight-coach HS2 trains but restrict them to routes like London–Birmingham, Liverpool, and Blackpool.
ii. Order a brand-new fleet of 43 custom-built, 12-carriage tilting trains (750 seats each) to replace the retiring Pendolinos.
iii. These "super-Pendolinos" would run from Euston to Manchester and Glasgow using the HS2 line at up to 186 mph, before seamlessly switching to tilting mode on the classic WCML track. The end to end journey times would be faster as the speeds on the WCML are higher.

Personally I do agree with non-tilting HS2 trains, as they make no sense now HS2 only reaches Handsacre.

 

[AlexSJW]

Chris Gibb argued that the government's current plans for HS2 trains will cause a severe capacity crisis. He proposed utilising the Class 390 Pendolino fleet on HS2. To resolve this without spending billions rebuilding old station platforms, Gibb proposed:

The "Turbo" Pendolino Upgrades:
i. Refit existing Class 390 Pendolinos with upgraded traction systems and bogies.
ii. Run them at 155 mph in non-tilt mode on the new HS2 line.
iii. Run them at 125 mph minimum (with tilt) on the classic WCML.

The 2040 Pendolino Replacement:
Because HS2 phase 1 delays mean it won't fully open until roughly 2040 -coinciding exactly with when the current Pendolinos reach the end of their working life:
i. Keep the current order of 54 eight-coach HS2 trains but restrict them to routes like London–Birmingham, Liverpool, and Blackpool.
ii. Order a brand-new fleet of 43 custom-built, 12-carriage tilting trains (750 seats each) to replace the retiring Pendolinos.
iii. These "super-Pendolinos" would run from Euston to Manchester and Glasgow using the HS2 line at up to 186 mph, before seamlessly switching to tilting mode on the classic WCML track. The end to end journey times would be faster as the speeds on the WCML are higher.

Personally I do agree with non-tilting HS2 trains, as they make no sense now HS2 only reaches Handsacre.

correction: Personally I do not agree with non-tilting HS2 trains, as they make no sense now HS2 only reaches Handsacre.

 

[Bevan Price]

The Clas 390 are expected to start being replaced by 2043 (from a Chris Gibb talk).
The train maintenance depot contract arranged by DfT apparently will only be long enough for 8 coach HS2 trains.

So, having longer HS2 trains becomes a big problem.
But most - maybe all - WCML stations north of Crewe will be too short for 2x8 coach formations. So trains to Liverpool and north of Crewe will get trains 50 feet shorter than 11 coach 390s. - so a loss of 150-200 seat capacity. So, DfT seemingly wants compulsory reservations on those HS2 services.

But - is that practicable - or enforceable when those services provide what are essentially town to town "local" services on the WCML north of Crewe ?

 

[pokemonsuper9]

But - is that practicable - or enforceable when those services provide what are essentially town to town "local" services on the WCML north of Crewe ?

Not unless they add something to supplement that (like a Crewe-Carlisle stopper), if you do you could take Penrith and Oxenholme, maybe Lancaster and Warrington too, out of the fast train's stops.

The existing trains tend to be quite busy on what I've taken to jokingly refering to as the "North WCML Metro", in fact I see the Avantis get a bit quieter after Warrington as lots of short distance travellers get off (many of whom got on at Preston or Wigan).

 

[Sorcerer]

Chris Gibb argued that the government's current plans for HS2 trains will cause a severe capacity crisis. He proposed utilising the Class 390 Pendolino fleet on HS2. To resolve this without spending billions rebuilding old station platforms, Gibb proposed:

The "Turbo" Pendolino Upgrades:
i. Refit existing Class 390 Pendolinos with upgraded traction systems and bogies.
ii. Run them at 155 mph in non-tilt mode on the new HS2 line.
iii. Run them at 125 mph minimum (with tilt) on the classic WCML.

The 2040 Pendolino Replacement:
Because HS2 phase 1 delays mean it won't fully open until roughly 2040 -coinciding exactly with when the current Pendolinos reach the end of their working life:
i. Keep the current order of 54 eight-coach HS2 trains but restrict them to routes like London–Birmingham, Liverpool, and Blackpool.
ii. Order a brand-new fleet of 43 custom-built, 12-carriage tilting trains (750 seats each) to replace the retiring Pendolinos.
iii. These "super-Pendolinos" would run from Euston to Manchester and Glasgow using the HS2 line at up to 186 mph, before seamlessly switching to tilting mode on the classic WCML track. The end to end journey times would be faster as the speeds on the WCML are higher.

Personally I do agree with non-tilting HS2 trains, as they make no sense now HS2 only reaches Handsacre.

Any new tilting trains would require TASS which nobody is prepared to support beyond the Pendolino's lifespan. Whether you agree or disagree with non-tilting trains running post-HS2, it's quite simply not happening.

 

[The Planner]

correction: Personally I do not agree with non-tilting HS2 trains, as they make no sense now HS2 only reaches Handsacre.

The WCML will likely end up a non tilt railway anyway.

 

[AlexSJW]

The WCML will likely end up a non tilt railway anyway.

As the WCML has long lengths of track with some intercity services only on the WCML, or predominatly on the WCML how do you conclude that?

 

[Zomboid]

As the WCML has long lengths of track with some intercity services only on the WCML, or predominatly on the WCML how do you conclude that?

As things currently stand the 390s are the only tilting trains on the network, and they're set to eventually be replaced by non-tilting HS2 trains.

Since HS2 is curtailed to Handsace the whole rolling stock strategy that was based on it getting to Manchester might need updating, but as things stand we're getting 200m long non-tilting trains.

 

[The Planner]

As the WCML has long lengths of track with some intercity services only on the WCML, or predominatly on the WCML how do you conclude that?

No new tilt trains will ever be ordered and more work will get done on providing non tilt uplifts as per south of Weaver. Having a standard speed priofile also makes timetabling easier.

 

[Agent_Squash]

Any new tilting trains would require TASS which nobody is prepared to support beyond the Pendolino's lifespan. Whether you agree or disagree with non-tilting trains running post-HS2, it's quite simply not happening.

Isn’t TASS just Eurobalises anyway?

 

[Sorcerer]

Isn’t TASS just Eurobalises anyway?

Not quite sure to be honest, but what I do know is that the technology is needed for UK tilting trains and most routes aren't equipped with it. I think even if ETCS could eventually take it's place that GBR/Alstom won't want to support it anyway and would rather stick with a standardised non-tilt railway.

 

[mmh]

Stick a couple of locos on them and they're ideal candidates to replace the Cardiff-Holyhead mk4s. Maybe resurrect the Manchester-Llandudno hauled train too for the services timed around Chester/Manchester commuting.

 

[CW2]

No new tilt trains will ever be ordered and more work will get done on providing non tilt uplifts as per south of Weaver. Having a standard speed priofile also makes timetabling easier.

Very wise words.
The notion of adding a weight penalty to trains running on HS2 (by incorporating tilting equipment which would be superfluous on HS2) has already been debunked.

 

[liamf656]

Stick a couple of locos on them and they're ideal candidates to replace the Cardiff-Holyhead mk4s. Maybe resurrect the Manchester-Llandudno hauled train too for the services timed around Chester/Manchester commuting.

I was waiting for someone to suggest they'd be loco hauled!!

The 390s are an oddball fleet and I don't see them working anywhere other than the WCML, where they'll live out their years until scrapped. I'd have maybe said a handful could have gone to LNER but only if they go now and instead of the 897s, so won't happen

 

[mmh]

I was waiting for someone to suggest they'd be loco hauled!!

Happy to oblige

The 390s are an oddball fleet and I don't see them working anywhere other than the WCML, where they'll live out their years until scrapped. I'd have maybe said a handful could have gone to LNER but only if they go now and instead of the 897s, so won't happen

I agree, that seems most likely - where would want a long distance EMU that won't already have newer ones?

 

[dk1]

I was waiting for someone to suggest they'd be loco hauled!!

The 390s are an oddball fleet and I don't see them working anywhere other than the WCML, where they'll live out their years until scrapped. I'd have maybe said a handful could have gone to LNER but only if they go now and instead of the 897s, so won't happen

Was a rumour several moons ago that some may start operating on the fully electrified MML after initial stages of HS2 opened from 2026. Now we all know whats not happened on both fronts.

 

[liamf656]

Was a rumour several moons ago that some may start operating on the fully electrified MML after initial stages of HS2 opened from 2026. Now we all know whats not happened on both fronts.

If only!!!

 

[Stossgebet]

If GBR isn't the success we hope it will be, or if a future government gets us into the eu single market, and has to apply the eu fourth railway package back into UK law, then there is surely a probability that open access operators may take some of the fleet.
And maybe an open access operator may make a case for their loco haulage beyond the wires.
And it may not be long term, but as an end of life, cheap lease, in order to prove a route, before ordering brand new stock, it is actually little different from today.
Personally, i hope GBR is a great success, and open access fades away.

 

[Snow1964]

Was a rumour several moons ago that some may start operating on the fully electrified MML after initial stages of HS2 opened from 2026. Now we all know whats not happened on both fronts.

Probably similar to the one about 7-8 years ago, that they would take over Paddington - Bristol/Swansea services and then Bristol-Manchester services in early 2030s, releasing 80x bimodes to replace aging diesel only voyagers on mainly electrified routes
But with electrification cut backs, clearly those options died

More realistically, DfT has been showing a fleet of 29 trains for Transpennine (plus options for elsewhere) on its procurement pipeline spreadsheet for few recent years but never actually ordered them. Another DfT document said will be about 205m long, so maybe spare HS2 fleet will see a cascade instead.

 

[Howardh]

I was under the impression that any trains using the new HS2 would be brand new so they could get up to maximum speed, reading the above it seems it will be a mix of old and new stock; or has that simply not yet been decided? Anyhow my question is, if the aging Pendolino's are kept, and refurbished, could they run under wires across the Pennines when that's electrified, and if so, what would be the top speed?

 

[Sorcerer]

If GBR isn't the success we hope it will be, or if a future government gets us into the eu single market, and has to apply the eu fourth railway package back into UK law, then there is surely a probability that open access operators may take some of the fleet.
And maybe an open access operator may make a case for their loco haulage beyond the wires.
And it may not be long term, but as an end of life, cheap lease, in order to prove a route, before ordering brand new stock, it is actually little different from today.

I think this is about the only chance of a post-HS2 future for the Pendolinos whether they run with or without tilt. That said it would still be more expensive to run them because of their tilting technology that adds weight and maintenance and increased track access charges, so unless Virgin want to get back in their WCML routes with open-access I am still doubtful anyone would take them off the WCML.

Anyhow my question is, if the aging Pendolino's are kept, and refurbished, could they run under wires across the Pennines when that's electrified, and if so, what would be the top speed?

Assuming they could fit in enough platforms they probably could provide great capacity benefits, but this might be somewhat mitigated by the top speed being the same as any other EMU but with lower acceleration and increased track access charges. Perhaps Angel Trains would be willing to lease it for cheap to make up for that, especially since it'll be an aged rolling stock by then, but the tilting equipment would still be there despite not getting much benefit from it.

 

[JamesT]

I was under the impression that any trains using the new HS2 would be brand new so they could get up to maximum speed, reading the above it seems it will be a mix of old and new stock; or has that simply not yet been decided? Anyhow my question is, if the aging Pendolino's are kept, and refurbished, could they run under wires across the Pennines when that's electrified, and if so, what would be the top speed?

As it stands, HS2 will be solely new trains. Upgrading Pendolinos to run on it was a suggestion by someone who was subsequently sacked from the DfT.
By the time HS2 opens and the 895s start running, the Pendolinos will be getting on for 40 years old. It's unlikely that they would get a significant enough lifetime on another line to make it worthwhile spending lots of money on a refurb. TPE already have the much newer 397 and 802 trains which can use the wires. As nobody is going to fit the balises for tilt to another line, max speed would likely be 110.

 

[Zomboid]

As nobody is going to fit the balises for tilt to another line, max speed would likely be 110.

Surely they could run at 125 anywhere the line speed permits? You don't need tilt to go that fast on the ECML/ MML/ GWML, so why would a 390 need tilt balises? If they would just wobble about on their own accord without them you'd just disable the tilt like on 221s.

There'd be no point as they'll be life expired by the time they're finished on the WCML, though.