I agree, and I think I would notice that deceleration. I
All the talk of signalling systems and AWS is fascinating to a signal layperson like myself, so thanks everyone for that.
But as a non train driver, what I'm struggling with is trying to imagine a set of circumstances where a speed of 76mph when the aspect of the previous 4 aspect signal was single amber is explicable. Can anyone help me with that? Can it only be as a result of presumption?
We don’t yet have enough information to be able to fully answer that.
A more logical sequence of events is that the driver responded to the single yellow at the previous signal, correctly controlled the train over the 50mph crossovers, and then for whatever reason forgot that they were still running on a single yellow (or even hadn’t taken in that they were on a single yellow at all), and “opened up” as if on clear signals, like would be quite common at this location. However one would then expect the red signal to be noticed, and a some kind of brake application to have followed, which would have resulted in a reportable SPAD, but probably not a collision (though could have done if the 810 was stopped further north than it apparently was).
However, as you say, we have the complication that the train has driven through WH154, yet the driver does seem to have then been alert enough to have reacted pretty promptly to seeing the train standing ahead, which given it was on a curve suggests a pretty decent level of alertness.
We may never get a definite answer to this, in the same way we didn’t at Ladbroke Grove, and didn’t really at Cowden either, although in both cases there were some ideas floated as being considered highly likely (sunlight and thick fog respectively), and in the case of Cowden there was some debate as to how well lit the red aspect was and even more debate as to whether the train’s AWS was working.
For now, a lot depends on whether the driver at Bedford slowed down as if to stop and then re-accelerated past WH154, or whether he accelerated immediately after the crossovers and didn’t make any response to WH154 at all, or possibly the driving was erratic. This may give a clue as to what was going on, but still may not answer the question as to why. Unless something definitive comes to light, RAIB may have difficulty answering this one.