South Wales 'Metro' potential works, expansions and impact of possible road schemes on the railway

[zwk500]

Are they the same business case, or two separate ones?

Separate business cases for the Relief line upgrade, Burns stations, and Cardiff Parkway.

 

[trainspotter4]

Anyone know if there has been any mention with regards to Cardiff Parkway, things have gone silent since the joint funding agreement was reached between UK/Welsh/Private?

 

[Last Hurrah]

Modern Railways this month has an analysis piece looking at the outcome of the Senedd elections. They point out that if the new Plaid government goes ahead with a relief road in Newport then the justification (in Benefit to Cost Ratio terms) for the Burns stations will collapse and they will likely be cancelled to free up money for the road.

Rather than upgrade the Southern link Road around Newport in attempting to solve the Brynglas Tunnels M4 bottleneck . .

An alternative solution could be what was done to solve the bottleneck at the Nazzano Tunnel which had 2 Lanes that carried traffic on the A1 Motorway between Rome & Naples

Without closing it to traffic, (I find that hard to comprehend) they widened the tunnel from 2 Lanes to 4 Lanes - fascinating how it was done . .

No idea on what the tunnelling costs would be . . .

 

[AdamWW]

Without closing it to traffic, (I find that hard to comprehend) they widened the tunnel from 2 Lanes to 4 Lanes - fascinating how it was done . .

Something similar has been done to enlarge railway tunnels - temporarily convert a double track tunnel into single track and then tunnel around it. Somehow.

 

[oglord]

Widening the tunnels would not solve any of the other problems though. This was all argued at length during the enquiry which concluded that a brand-new alignment was the only option.

 

[cloakanddagger]

Widening roads doesn't solve traffic problems. It induces demand for car journeys, which makes traffic worse not better. Focusing on public transport is the right move, other cities and large towns in South Wales like Newport deserve a good metro just as much as Cardiff does.

 

[Solaris]

Widening roads doesn't solve traffic problems. It induces demand for car journeys, which makes traffic worse not better. Focusing on public transport is the right move, other cities and large towns in South Wales like Newport deserve a good metro just as much as Cardiff does.

Yep, induced demand is a reality we can't avoid,,,,build more roads get more cars. PS Cardiff really isn't getting a Metro in this phase...the valleys are. Cardiff needs the Metro treatment as well (min 4tph and new stations in areas of high demand)....a priority for the next phase.

 

[slowroad]

Yep, induced demand is a reality we can't avoid,,,,build more roads get more cars. PS Cardiff really isn't getting a Metro in this phase...the valleys are. Cardiff needs the Metro treatment as well (min 4tph and new stations in areas of high demand)....a priority for the next phase.

Can be true but not always. Loads of roads (including new and widened ones) are not congested. And (some) induced traffic is good, if the project aim is to release or stimulate economic development. In the south east Wales case, given the nature of the traffic flows on the M4, public transport improvements will have a barely detectable effect. That said, efficient use of road space clearly requires (time and location specific) road user charges.

 

[Cardiff123]

The new Deputy Minister for Transport has already ruled out a new road to the south of Newport (for example, the previous 'black route')

Whatever happens with the M4, there's no denying the fact that the east of Cardiff and Newport are extremely poorly served by rail. The buses out to Trowbridge and Rumney can take 45 minutes to 1 hour, and even longer in peak time traffic.

Another reason why rail infrastructure and funding needs to be fully devolved to Welsh Government, so TfW and WG can get on with rail infrastructure upgrades rather than taking the begging bowl to Westminster and inevitably being told "no" or to be grateful for funding that falls well short of what's needed.

Gridlock fears after minister takes M4 relief road ‘off the table’

Nicholas Thomas, Local Democracy Reporter Any improvements to motorway congestion around Newport should not come at the cost of gridlock around the city, its council leader has warned. The new Welsh Government doubled down this week on Mark Drakeford’s previous decision to abandon the Black...

nation.cymru

Deputy transport minister Mark Hooper said the proposal for a new stretch of motorway bypassing Newport to the south “isn’t a credible option for us” and Plaid Cymru was “taking it off the table”.

The government will instead consider “all other road options” including junction closures, and Mr Hooper said the overall solutions to Newport’s M4 problems are “public transport focused” – in line with the Burns Commission’s recommendations in 2020.

Mr Hooper said he would report back to the Senedd in the autumn after working on “practical and deliverable alternatives” to a relief road.

 

[Envoy]

I am all in favour of the ‘Burns’ stations being built between Cardiff and Severn Tunnel Junction. However, if the powers that be think they are going to solve the choke point on the M4 at the Newport tunnel, they are living in cloud cuckoo land.

It sounds like the new Plaid Cymru government are more or less following the same policy as the previous Labour adminsistration regarding the M4 around Newport. Only small parts of the M4 black route would have crossed the so called ‘wet lands’ as most would have been through run down Newport docklands. They are not natural wet lands in any case but land drained long ago for farming. Had this lot been in control in Victorian times, presumably they would have stopped Brunel building the railway along the coastal plain in order to preserve wildlife?

Neither will doing up roads in south Newport to create the so called blue route work in attracting traffic off the current M4. It will also create problems for local traffic in south Newport - as will closing junctions on the present M4 in north Newport. Only the black route will work and any other schemes to solve the Newport M4 problem are money down the drain.

Mark Hooper is the Deputy Transport Minister but who is the actual Transport Minister in the new Welsh Government?

 

[Tomos y Tanc]

I am all in favour of the ‘Burns’ stations being built between Cardiff and Severn Tunnel Junction. However, if the powers that be think they are going to solve the choke point on the M4 at the Newport tunnel, they are living in cloud cuckoo land.

It sounds like the new Plaid Cymru government are more or less following the same policy as the previous Labour adminsistration regarding the M4 around Newport. Only small parts of the M4 black route would have crossed the so called ‘wet lands’ as most would have been through run down Newport docklands. They are not natural wet lands in any case but land drained long ago for farming. Had this lot been in control in Victorian times, presumably they would have stopped Brunel building the railway along the coastal plain in order to preserve wildlife?

Neither will doing up roads in south Newport to create the so called blue route work in attracting traffic off the current M4. It will also create problems for local traffic in south Newport - as will closing junctions on the present M4 in north Newport. Only the black route will work and any other schemes to solve the Newport M4 problem are money down the drain.

Mark Hooper is the Deputy Transport Minister but who is the actual Transport Minister in the new Welsh Government?

Mark Hooper is the Deputy Minister for Transport. He answers to Adam Price, the Enterprise Minister.

Many important wildlife sights are the result of human activity. Species have evolved to take advantage of the environments we have created. There's a reason the corn bunting and the house martin have the names they do.

In the case of the Gwent Levels, they were largely drained in Roman times so that's a 2,000 year old period where nature had adapted to a complex system of reens, pills, marshland and grazing.

People will have their own views on the desirability or otherwise of the black route but just sneering at people who happen to disagree with you is hardly productive.

 

[Envoy]

Mark Hooper is the Deputy Minister for Transport. He answers to Adam Price, the Enterprise Minister.

Many important wildlife sights are the result of human activity. Species have evolved to take advantage of the environments we have created. There's a reason the corn bunting and the house martin have the names they do.

In the case of the Gwent Levels, they were largely drained in Roman times so that's a 2,000 year old period where nature had adapted to a complex system of reens, pills, marshland and grazing.

People will have their own views on the desirability or otherwise of the black route but just sneering at people who happen to disagree with you is hardly productive.

I am just stating the facts as I and lots of people see them. The only solution to solving the jammed up M4 at Newport is to build the black route - as recommended in the consultants report which cost £150 million of tax payers money only to be rejected by the Drakeford Labour administration.

Today, with Take That & Belinda Carlisle at the Principality Stadium resulted in nose to tale traffic crawling along all the way from the Severn Bridge to the Newport tunnel. Even in normal times, this section of motorway is massively over crowded resulting in accidents - some with fatalities.

As I stated earlier, the amount of so called wetland taken up by a black route M4 is negligible as much of the road would have been through partly derelict industrial land. A greater risk to wildlife in Wales at the moment seems to be from allowing solar farms to cover vast areas of farmland - even though nuclear would still be needed as a back up. Wind turbines are popping up all over Wales yet I don't see these on the Cotswolds.

 

[Tomos y Tanc]

I am just stating the facts as I and lots of people see them. The only solution to solving the jammed up M4 at Newport is to build the black route - as recommended in the consultants report which cost £150 million of tax payers money only to be rejected by the Drakeford Labour administration.

Today, with Take That & Belinda Carlisle at the Principality Stadium resulted in nose to tale traffic crawling along all the way from the Severn Bridge to the Newport tunnel. Even in normal times, this section of motorway is massively over crowded resulting in accidents - some with fatalities.

As I stated earlier, the amount of so called wetland taken up by a black route M4 is negligible as much of the road would have been through partly derelict industrial land. A greater risk to wildlife in Wales at the moment seems to be from allowing solar farms to cover vast areas of farmland - even though nuclear would still be needed as a back up. Wind turbines are popping up all over Wales yet I don't see these on the Cotswolds.

I honestly don't disagree with much of that although, in the case of solar, the levels are probably quite a good option. There's barely any active agriculture there these days and well designed solar projects can co-exist with nature.

I think the arguments regarding the black route were finely balanced. Personally, I think Mark Drakeford made the wrong decision when he rejected it.

Given the inflation in construction costs, I think it's unrealistic to expect it to be revived by the Welsh Government on its own. There is an argument though that, just as the EU funded strategic international routes including the A55, the UK Government should consider doing the same.

 

[WelshBluebird]

The only solution to solving the jammed up M4 at Newport is to build the black route

But that isnt a solution. Adding lanes / new roads never stops congestion. It just induces more demand. Build more lanes / a new road and we just have the same conversation 5 or 10 years later. We need to encourage modal shift not just allow more people to drive.

 

[anthony263]

I do.think a new motorway is need speaking as a regular coach driver through that area.

I agree the.black route wasn't the correct route and labour were right ro reject it. I do think yhe previous red route which ran a bit north of the black route skipping Newport docks is the correct option

 

[Envoy]

But that isnt a solution. Adding lanes / new roads never stops congestion. It just induces more demand. Build more lanes / a new road and we just have the same conversation 5 or 10 years later. We need to encourage modal shift not just allow more people to drive.

Yes, I agree that we need to encourage modal shift but it is disappointing to read that building work on the ‘Burns’ stations won’t even start until 2029. They can’t even get Network Rail to build a walkway from Cogan station to link with the Pont Y Werin bridge to the ice rink and swimming pool on the western Bay shore in Cardiff. Victorian signalling and long block sections remains an issue on the Marches Line due to lack of funding by the UK Governments. Many rail projects on TFW routes remain on the to do list.

Whilst adding new roads / lanes surely induces people to use cars, it also has the benefit of reducing accidents and removing pollution from residential areas. Indeed, one of the arguments against any plan to close M4 junctions around Newport is that drivers would have to drive on local roads to get on/off the motorway. (The M4 was originally built to the north of Newport in the 1960’s so as to provide good links to the valleys which faced industrial decline).

North Cardiff in particular has traffic jams partly caused by the lack of access to the M4. Even in NE Cardiff, where new housing is going up, they failed to firstly build a good new road linking Lisvane with J30. This results in traffic going through a maze of ex- country lanes and new residential streets. The same problem exists in NW Cardiff due to a failure to build a free flowing interchange at J33 which incorporated a link to the A4119 Llantrisant Road. Radyr, Groes Faen, Llandaff, Fairwater and St.Fagans are all now seeing a greater flow of traffic as the population increases but without the link to the M4 at J33 and goodness knows when the north west section of the Metro will be built?

Towns like Llandeilo and Builth Wells would also benefit from having by-passes as they have the A483 going through the main streets. Llanbedr near Harlech had a short by-pass turned down by the previous Labour Government in Wales.

I contend that building new roads can be of great benefit but also strongly support the desire to get an increased use of public transport.

 

[geoffk]

Indeed, one of the arguments against any plan to close M4 junctions around Newport is that drivers would have to drive on local roads to get on/off the motorway. (The M4 was originally built to the north of Newport in the 1960’s so as to provide good links to the valleys which faced industrial decline).

When I worked in Newport (in 1969!) I remember hearing comments that there were too many junctions on the M4 and that too much local traffic was using it. I hadn't realised there had been a plan to close any.

 

[Christian Schm]

You couldn’t widen Brynglas tunnels, though you could turn it into a (wider) cutting.

The black route was rules out by Plaid before the election, it’s just too expensive. And there’s no business case, prevent Newport from snarling up 3-5 times per year is not that much value.

So it’s always about mitigation, upgrading the SDR. And there are a few options, for example the roundabouts around Spytty are all sub-optimal for traffic flows

And as this is a rail forum, it is my understanding that the business case for the 5 new station is a joint one, and that this one assumes the relief line upgrade will have happened.

Magor station also has its own business case (which is on the Magorstation group website). And unlike the other new stations Magor is *not* dependent on the relief line upgrade or any additional service, it could be built now and served by existing services

Magor station and the footbridge extension at STJ are really the only quick wins in the area, that could be delivered before the next election…

 

[zwk500]

You couldn’t widen Brynglas tunnels, though you could turn it into a (wider) cutting.

Not practically, you couldn't:

https://maps.app.goo.gl/DsH5YYfotLaNy5e77 (Link to pin for Brynglas tunnels showing multiple houses on top of the tunnels and the A404 interchange that would need demolition or reconstruction to widen the tunnels out to a cutting.

 

[Caaardiff]

While both sides of the Brynglas tunnels see heavy traffic, the Eastbound side from Cardiff often moves alot more freely. Whereas the Westbound side from Magor is often stop start all the way.
When you look at the differences of both, what is needed is a feeder lane from Junction 29 (A48M) along to Junction 28 (Tredegar Park), as you have traffic from Junction 29 merging into the main carriageway with many cars coming off again at 28. It should be similar to how Junction 34 to 33 is. Most of the stop start traffic Eastbound gets moving again (albeit slowly) after junction 28.
Westbound is more of a mess as it drops to two lanes approaching the Coldra, then goes back up to three after the junction, which creates another pinch point.
Then at 25A it drops to 2 lanes again. It's not possible to join the motorway on the East of the tunnels. It might be worth closing the Westbound exit of Junction 26 after the tunnels to push some traffic off the M4 before the tunnels at 25A.
This is all minor mitigation of where a much bigger solution is needed.

 

[chargesmith]

Moderator note: Split from

TfW class 398 Stadler Citylink tram trains

I can't find an open thread on these. Is there any news on them? I saw in a Tweet that some may be on test, if so has anyone seen any pictures. Until the depot is complete there seems no point in delivering them, but it would be good to keep up with progress.

www.railforums.co.uk

Interesting question. At the moment "they" would be Cardiff Bus making I think a purely commercial decision.
Not entirely clear to me at the moment which will come first though - the new 398 services or bus franchising in Cardiff.

I think they will consider it once the first stage of Crossrail is built. It's currently only 2 buses an hour anyway and the route is pretty similar.

TrawsCymru have cut back the T4 to Merthyr for a similar reason, it's duplicating an arguably better service and the trains are generally more reliable because they don't get stuck in traffic.

Buses should to an extent be filling in the gaps where trains don't or can't go, the 6 route currently does that because you can't get a train directly from Central to the Bay.

 

[positron]

Off topic but I think they will consider [withdrawing the 6 bus to the bay] once the first stage of Crossrail is built. It's currently only 2 buses an hour anyway and the route is pretty similar.

TrawsCymru have cut back the T4 to Merthyr for a similar reason, it's duplicating an arguably better service and the trains are generally more reliable because they don't get stuck in traffic.

Buses should to an extent be filling in the gaps where trains don't or can't go, the 6 route currently does that because you can't get a train directly from Central to the Bay.

Further discussion on this is probably for the SW Metro thread.

TrawsCymru only ever funded the service north of Merthyr Tydfil iirc the extension to Cardiff was a stagecoach commercial decision, now it's not run by stagecoach and also there's improved train services the commercial aspect probably doesn't add up.

Regarding the 6 it is Cardiff bus but that's council owned so I don't think we have to wait till bus franchising in the south east for some logic to be applied.

I agree busses should be fillers for a sparse service or a more hub and spoke type system at some stations.

One thing TfW do seem to be doing well is getting transport hubs planned in. There's the big new one in Porth, there's obviously the one in Cardiff Central, Caerphilly is already one. Plus I think places like Waun Graun park.

Probably more and more of this integration should be worked on into the future to really make the most of the new services.

A big missing piece is the lack of train and bus integration at Pontypridd, there's at least stops outside the station but I suspect a train station integrated into the bus station would be a big increase in connections.

 

[AdamWW]

A big missing piece is the lack of train and bus integration at Pontypridd, there's at least stops outside the station but I suspect a train station integrated into the bus station would be a big increase in connections.

And in Cardiff, where the bus services through Pontypridd terminate considerably short of the bus station even though they used to use the old one and after it closed still used stops near the railway station for quite a while.

 

[John R]

Re single track sections, the latest Modern Railways has an article on future plans in the Cardiff area could have the knock on effect of requiring further redoubling up the valleys as timings would change.

As an example, the cost estimate for a new station at Ely Mill includes redoubling between Abercynon and Mountain Ash.

A new station at Gabalfa would also require the same redoubling, along with a second platform at Merthyr Tydfil, and some redoubling of the Rhondda branch. Some of this could be avoided by not stopping all trains at Gabalfa.

I have to admit that this surprised me, and whilst I would welcome any further double tracking, I do wonder whether a slicker way of working the doors could go some way to minimising the consequential infrastructure changes by reducing dwell times at every stop.

 

[positron]

Gabalfa was always planned so I'm quite dubious of the claim it requires massive engineering works elsewhere.

 

[Christian Schm]

Not practically, you couldn't:
View attachment 206483
https://maps.app.goo.gl/DsH5YYfotLaNy5e77 (Link to pin for Brynglas tunnels showing multiple houses on top of the tunnels and the A404 interchange that would need demolition or reconstruction to widen the tunnels out to a cutting.

Sorry, should have been clearer - my understanding is you can't widen the tunnels as the hill may come done if you tried (i.e. it's an engineering issue). Engineering-wise you could do a cutting, but IO would agree that practically not. Even the new M4 would probably be cheaper after allowing for compensation and a new access to Bryn Bevan.

And as someone else just pointed out, while Plaid would be happy with 'a road-based solution', they've ruled out the previous idea.

And the issue is that there isn't much else that works. Widening the SDR in Newport won't take any traffic of the M4, all it would mean is that when there is an accicent that closes the M4 the effects on Newport will be very very bad as opposed to very very very bad.

Best roads solution for the M4 would be to close a couple of junctions (e.g. 25, 26, 27). But that would not be good for Newport where local streets would then need to carry more traffic. Best roads solution for Newport would be to reclassify the M4 as a dual carraigeway. It is 50mph anyway, so capacity shouldn't be affected. But it would then be possible to allow west-bound slips on/off junction 25a. That should reduce traffic thorugh Crindau and Malpas but wouldn't help M4.

Best overall solution would still be proper Metro service between Cardiff and Abergavenny/Chepstow/Bristol. Which should be doable if we had Transport Scotland in charge...

 

[Caaardiff]

Best overall solution would still be proper Metro service between Cardiff and Abergavenny/Chepstow/Bristol

Is that actually a viable solution to all of the M4s problems though? Any metro service will be centred around train access to Cardiff City Centre.
It doesn't neccesarily account for traffic coming from South East Wales going West of Cardiff, or traffic coming from North/Midlands and East of Bristol heading past Cardiff.
Its a sticking plaster solution that will reduce some traffic, but it wont have a massive effect.
From Abergavnney you have a choice of roads through pontypool and cwmbran, which comes out the West Side of Brynglas, or A40 and A449 which people would probably avoid anyway.

 

[mrmartin]

Surely the priority should be some proper rail based park and ride from the M4? Cardiff "parkway" doesn't really meet that need.

And on the M4 I totally agree that it desperately needs doing. Since I've moved to Cardiff it's probably the most shocking thing about infrastructure in South Wales and everyone I meet brings it up unprompted at some point. It's frankly a disgrace that a fully planned project was cancelled and getting on to a decade later even the railway stations (which I really question how much they would impact congestion) aren't even likely to be finished planning, nevermind construction.

I really don't understand how one poster above said it is only a problem a few times a year!? Even on weekends the traffic can be horrendous, and if you are going to Bristol airport I have to leave an extra hour to be safe because of potential congestion unless very off peak.

The impact this must have on the economic competitiveness of South Wales will be horrendous, especially for people trying to move goods.

Btw, I've also never quite understood why on railways induced demand is a massive positive but on roads it's a huge negative. I get it if it was US style sprawl but I don't think anyone can suggest that a 2 lane motorway is sufficient for ~1-2million people. If you compare it to other small European countries you'd probably have 4 lanes minimum

 

[zwk500]

Best overall solution would still be proper Metro service between Cardiff and Abergavenny/Chepstow/Bristol. Which should be doable if we had Transport Scotland in charge...

Why would having a different organisation in charge suddenly provide massively more capacity through Newport station?

 

[positron]

Surely the priority should be some proper rail based park and ride from the M4? Cardiff "parkway" doesn't really meet that need.

And on the M4 I totally agree that it desperately needs doing. Since I've moved to Cardiff it's probably the most shocking thing about infrastructure in South Wales and everyone I meet brings it up unprompted at some point. It's frankly a disgrace that a fully planned project was cancelled and getting on to a decade later even the railway stations (which I really question how much they would impact congestion) aren't even likely to be finished planning, nevermind construction.

I really don't understand how one poster above said it is only a problem a few times a year!? Even on weekends the traffic can be horrendous, and if you are going to Bristol airport I have to leave an extra hour to be safe because of potential congestion unless very off peak.

The impact this must have on the economic competitiveness of South Wales will be horrendous, especially for people trying to move goods.

Btw, I've also never quite understood why on railways induced demand is a massive positive but on roads it's a huge negative. I get it if it was US style sprawl but I don't think anyone can suggest that a 2 lane motorway is sufficient for ~1-2million people. If you compare it to other small European countries you'd probably have 4 lanes minimum

Induced demand on rail is good because we need modal shift towards rail and away from roads.

I completely agree that the M4 in south Wales is a joke but the proposed road solution wouldn't have solved the issue in the long term and the environment south of Newport is far too important to destroy for a road.

I also agree that I doubt new stations alone will be enough to impact congestion massively, we need cheaper tickets at least to Bristol, we need much higher frequency and capacity trains too. But we do need new stations to get people onto the railway. Though I also agree park and rides are needed too. The fact they're looking to build data centres on one the key park and ride sites is incredibly stupid.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Jul 2026 ==

Why would having a different organisation in charge suddenly provide massively more capacity through Newport station?

Well I'm assuming the logic is they'd be more likely to actually fund the improvements necessary. They seem quite good at getting routes between Glasgow and Edinburgh built for example (even if the services aren't perfectly ran).

Idk what is actually necessary capacity wise beyond the relief line usage. For Abergavenny I'm guessing it would be electrification and modern signalling past Cwmbran. For Bristol it might ultimately need a new tunnel but *something* is going to have to be done eventually. They should probably do it before the current tunnel reaches EOL.