HS2 should stop at more stations in the Chilterns

[MatthewHutton]

Aylesbury has a population of 90k. There's absolutely no justification for adding a stop on HS2 for them. No one serious is arguing for that.

Every other high speed line in the world would call at such a large place that far from the previous stop.

There are plenty of stops at much smaller places as well.

 

[Krokodil]

Not really particularly relevant though given they aren’t affected by the HS2 construction.

To be honest, after hearing about all of the very expensive mitigations for various locations in the Chilterns which were agreed to by ministers in order to placate various backbenchers, I'm not particularly minded to care. The well-to-do NIMBYs there (and the local councils who delayed access roads for spurious reasons) contributed significantly to cost inflation on the project, resulting in half of the project being cancelled and thereby reducing the benefits for rather less well-to-do parts of the country. The people of the Chilterns will still benefit from the project, if only through the wider economic activity generated on a national scale.

 

[MatthewHutton]

To be honest, after hearing about all of the very expensive mitigations for various locations in the Chilterns which were agreed to by ministers in order to placate various backbenchers, I'm not particularly minded to care. The well-to-do NIMBYs there (and the local councils who delayed access roads for spurious reasons) contributed significantly to cost inflation on the project, resulting in half of the project being cancelled and thereby reducing the benefits for rather less well-to-do parts of the country. The people of the Chilterns will still benefit from the project, if only through the wider economic activity generated on a national scale.

So you support Buckinghamshire county council continuing to take every procedural step in the book to make the project as painful as possible?

Also not everyone in Buckinghamshire is rich - nor is it the fault of the people who live there that HS2 Limited/the civil servants/the various transport secretaries were so incompetent.

Also there’s still money to be saved by cancelling some of the green tunnels etc.

 

[zwk500]

Also there’s still money to be saved by cancelling some of the green tunnels etc.

After the cancellation penalty to the contractors has been paid, how much do you anticipate to save?

 

[Krokodil]

Every other high speed line in the world would call at such a large place that far from the previous stop.

There are plenty of stops at much smaller places as well.

Every?

Given how SNCF don't actually bother to stop any Paris trains at TGV Haute-Picardie, once someone builds a "High Speed Interconnection North" around London - between HS1 and HS2 - then I'll reconsider.

 

[MatthewHutton]

Given how SNCF don't actually bother to stop any Paris trains at TGV Haute-Picardie,

a) Haute Picardie doesn’t have 90k people living there. It’s closer to the population density of Lockerbie than anywhere south of Preston anywhere close to HS2.

b) SNCF would get hundreds of thousands of extra passengers a year if they did stop Paris trains there.

c) SNCF is good at building stuff but it is pretty bad at scheduling trains in general. Lyon-Toulouse has a similar train frequency to Fort William-Glasgow.


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After the cancellation penalty to the contractors has been paid, how much do you anticipate to save?

I thought the green tunnels would be done right at the end?

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Every?

Every

 

[Krokodil]

So you support Buckinghamshire county council continuing to take every procedural step in the book to make the project as painful as possible?

No I don't. But are you implying that they might actually become cooperative if there was to be a station at Aylesbury? No chance.

Also not everyone in Buckinghamshire is rich

The loudest mouths complaining are. The barista at the local Starbucks doesn't have the time to be a NIMBY, it's a hobby only the middle classes and retirees can afford.

nor is it the fault of the people who live there that HS2 Limited/the civil servants/the various transport secretaries were so incompetent.

That their local council refused permission for an access road on entirely spurious grounds (one lorry a day, five days per week...) ultimately goes back to the people who vote them in. Councils who behave like that cost public money when they inevitably lose the planning inquiry.

 

[MatthewHutton]

The loudest mouths complaining are. The barista at the local Starbucks doesn't have the time to be a NIMBY, it's a hobby only the middle classes and retirees can afford.

The Aylesbury baristas also oppose HS2.

No I don't. But are you implying that they might actually become cooperative if there was to be a station at Aylesbury?

Yes.

That’s why literally every other high speed line took my approach.

 

[fishwomp]

The people of the Chilterns will still benefit from the project, if only through the wider economic activity generated on a national scale.

Sigh. £100bn spent, at a BCR less than 1 - that means the people of the Chilterns and rest of the country will be on average be _paying_ for this more than they are benefiting from it.

The BCR is projected at 0.3 to 0.4 now - so whilst many people in Birmingham will benefit positively, and some on the Clapham omnibus will too, - the rest of the country will not and it will be skewed such that most of the country is getting the bottom end of that BCR so that Brum can be above average..

 

[Krokodil]

a) Haute Picardie doesn’t have 90k people living there. It’s closer to the population density of Lockerbie than anywhere south of Preston anywhere close to HS2.

It has a wider catchment. It's not like an "Aylesbury High Speed" station would be centrally located.

b) SNCF would get hundreds of thousands of extra passengers a year if they did stop Paris trains there.

Yet they don't. Probably because doing so would slow down more important services. If you can fill trains while running non-stop, why would you stop?

Every

So where is the "Arezzo Parkway" station (or whatever the Italian version of an out-of-town TGV station is) on the Florence-Rome line? It's got 10k more people than Aylesbury and is exactly the same distance from Florence as Aylesbury is from London.

 

[MatthewHutton]

It has a wider catchment. It's not like an "Aylesbury High Speed" station would be centrally located.

So would “Aylesbury high speed” whereever it was located - and it would be significantly larger because the population density of south east England is much higher..

Yet they don't. Probably because doing so would slow down more important services. If you can fill trains while running non-stop, why would you stop?

You could add additional services that made the intermediate call. SNCF doesn’t mostly because it doesn’t run services that cover their marginal costs but don’t cover all of their fixed costs.

So where is the "Arezzo Parkway" station (or whatever the Italian version of an out-of-town TGV station is) on the Florence-Rome line?

Some high speed services call at Arezzo main station. There’s a loop for it.

 

[Krokodil]

That’s why literally every other high speed line took my approach.

The approach (bribing locals with token stations) that SNCF told us was a mistake, in retrospect?

Sigh. £100bn spent,

£100bn has not been spent. The nominal cost may reach £100bn, but the money hasn't actually been spent yet and it may never reach it. There is also no consideration of inflation. £100bn in today's prices is something like £80bn in 2019 prices.

at a BCR less than 1 - that means the people of the Chilterns and rest of the country will be on average be _paying_ for this more than they are benefiting from it.

Firstly I repeat the point that the people of the Chilterns have been responsible both for the increase in costs, and for the consequent reduction in benefits.

The BCR is projected at 0.3 to 0.4 now

Have you got a reputable citation for that claim? I can't find it reported by any news outlet, much less an official source.

 

[MatthewHutton]

The approach (bribing locals with token stations) that SNCF told us was a mistake, in retrospect?

a) Most of rural France has much lower population density than rural England.

b) Every other high speed line in existence took the approach SNCF called a “mistake” as that meant the lines got built without fuss from the locals. Honestly I think they forgot.

c) Even though they said intermediate stops were a mistake Bordeaux-Toulouse is going to have two - at towns of 33k and 60k respectively.

 

[Krokodil]

Some high speed services call at Arezzo main station. There’s a loop for it.

Three in each direction, to be precise. Not exactly well distributed through the day either, looks like they're provided because FS are obliged to for political reasons rather than because there's a real case for them.

Would Buckinghamshire County Council stop being obstructive if Aylesbury got what amounts to little more than a parliamentary service? How much would this branch cost?

 

[MatthewHutton]

Three in each direction, to be precise.

Three is more than zero. And Arezzo has quite a few intercity services that it’s unclear if they use the fast line or not - but which are undoubtedly more frequent than they’d be if the Rome-Milan services used the old line.

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Would Buckinghamshire County Council stop being obstructive if Aylesbury got what amounts to little more than a parliamentary service

Given Britain has much higher train frequencies in general what you’re basically saying is “would Aylesbury be happy with a service every two hours”?

 

[Krokodil]

c) Even though they said intermediate stops were a mistake Bordeaux-Toulouse is going to have two - at towns of 33k and 60k respectively.

As you say, France's population density is far lower. I doubt that LGV Bordeaux-Toulouse will be seeing much more than a couple of trains per hour, so intermediate stops are much less of a capacity killer.

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Three is more than zero.

Given Britain has much higher train frequencies in general what you’re basically saying is “would Aylesbury be happy with a service every two hours”?

You said that "every" country did it. Now you're saying that Britain should do differently to what other countries have done?

 

[MatthewHutton]

As you say, France's population density is far lower. I doubt that LGV Bordeaux-Toulouse will be seeing much more than a couple of trains per hour, so intermediate stops are much less of a capacity killer.

LGV Sud Est and the Tokaido Shinkansen which are the lines with the highest frequency also have intermediate stops for pretty small places like Atami and Le Cresout.

 

[Krokodil]

LGV Sud Est and the Tokaido Shinkansen which are the lines with the highest frequency also have intermediate stops for pretty small places like Atami and Le Cresout.

Does SNCF consider that building these stations was a good idea in retrospect?

 

[MatthewHutton]

You said that "every" country did it. Now you're saying that Britain should do differently to what other countries have done?

To be fair the LGV Sud Est and Tokaido Shinkansen where they have very high frequency service do have a train at least every two hours for their intermediate stops.

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Does SNCF consider that building these stations was a good idea in retrospect?

I believe JR Central and SNCF find some of the stops annoying. But they wouldn’t have had the lines at all without them.

Also HS2 does have spare capacity for intermediate stops subject to a separate line for the east coast.

 

[Krokodil]

To be fair the LGV Sud Est and Tokaido Shinkansen where they have very high frequency service do have a train ant least every two hours for their intermediate stops.

Would Buckinghamshire County Council have dropped all obstruction if it had been promised a two-hourly service? Somehow I doubt it. The local MPs made pretty clear in the debate that they weren't after a stop - EWR would be more useful to them.

And where is this two-hourly service going to go to? Is it going to be two-hourly to Birmingham? Two-hourly to Manchester? One of the Anglo-Scots? Unless you're going to stop a large proportion of trains, you're only going to serve maybe a third of the potential northbound passengers anyway.

 

[MatthewHutton]

And where is this two-hourly service going to go to? Is it going to be two-hourly to Birmingham? Two-hourly to Manchester? One of the Anglo-Scots? Unless you're going to stop a large proportion of trains, you're only going to serve maybe a third of the potential northbound passengers anyway.

I think Manchester, Birmingham and one of Leeds, Glasgow or Liverpool would cover around 2/3rds of demand - and for the others you change at Birmingham interchange - where you’d expect most/all trains to call.

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Would Buckinghamshire County Council have dropped all obstruction if it had been promised a two-hourly service?

That’s generally how it’s panned out in other countries.

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The local MPs made pretty clear in the debate that they weren't after a stop - EWR would be more useful to them.

In part because the HS2 stop wasn’t on offer.

 

[Krokodil]

I think Manchester, Birmingham and one of Leeds, Glasgow or Liverpool would cover around 2/3rds of demand - and for the others you change at Birmingham interchange - where you’d expect most/all trains to call.

So northbound you'd have a Manchester train at 6am, a Birmingham at 8am, a Glasgow at 10am, another Manchester at 12 noon?

This sounds like pointless tokenism

That’s generally how it’s panned out in other countries.

It doesn't follow that it would go like that in the UK. The NIMBYs will perceive no benefit to a new service to Manchester. These are the people who complain that their kids can't afford to buy a house, but will move heaven and earth to try and prevent any new development that would increase housing supply.

 

[MatthewHutton]

So northbound you'd have a Manchester train at 6am, a Birmingham at 8am, a Glasgow at 10am, another Manchester at 12 noon?

This sounds like pointless tokenism

You’d have all three of them every 2 hours in a sequence.

Once one is stopping the penalty for the others is very small.

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It doesn't follow that it would go like that in the UK. The NIMBYs will perceive no benefit to a new service to Manchester.

The people who are publicly complaining will definitely have family and friends elsewhere in the country.

I suspect the more working class people who aren’t complaining publicly will too to some extent but not as much.

 

[gravitystorm]

Have you got a reputable citation for that claim? I can't find it reported by any news outlet, much less an official source.

That's taken from the Accounting Officer Assessment Summary (May 2026) - see https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/department-for-transports-accounting-officer...assessment-summary-may-2026 :

In the interest of transparency and to enable a comparison of historic BCR trends on a like-for-like basis, if current costs were known at the time of Notice to Proceed (2020), the range would be 0.3-0.4.

Of course, like the old joke about "well I wouldn't start from here", the BCR of Phase 1 is really going to suffer if Phase 1 is now the only thing that gets constructed, given it was designed to support branches to Manchester and Leeds. If it's subsequently used for more (e.g. Phase 2A or something similar) then that would be more benefit for the same cost, but that's not happening any time soon.

It's also worth remembering (as I've recently learned) that BCRs are only really worth comparing against each other within the same scheme, and not as a standalone ratio, given that the methodologies for calculating the benefits can be very different between substantially different schemes.

 

[MatthewHutton]

Not this again ...

The 100mph Chiltern Main Line is a fast conventional railway by any European standards.

That also doesn’t go particularly close to where HS2 is being built.

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You’d have all three of them every 2 hours in a sequence.

Once one is stopping the penalty for the others is very small.

The other thing about this with any new stop is you almost land up with the passenger numbers being too high.

So if HS2 has 50 million passengers in total over a year that works out at something like 285/train. A stop with 1.5 million passengers a year spread over only 3 trains per two hours per direction works out at like 85/train which is around 30% of the total on those trains.

 

[Bald Rick]

Also there’s still money to be saved by cancelling some of the green tunnels etc.

I thought the green tunnels would be done right at the end?

They are mostly built already!

 

[Krokodil]

You’d have all three of them every 2 hours in a sequence.

So it's not a two-hourly service then, suddenly you are stopping multiple flows there. And "every" other country would do this? I think not.

The people who are publicly complaining will definitely have family and friends elsewhere in the country.

That's not going to make them change their minds about the scheme. They have friends and family struggling to get on the housing ladder but they still try to block any new developments.

 

[MatthewHutton]

So it's not a two-hourly service then, suddenly you are stopping multiple flows there

If you only stopped one train every two hours it would basically be full from people from the chilterns.

That's not going to make them change their minds about the scheme. They have friends and family struggling to get on the housing ladder but they still try to block any new developments.

It’s not about the most unreasonable 10% of the population. It’s about the mild NIMBYs that make up the average voter.

And yes it would be harder for Buckinghamshire council to take such a hard line if the average Buckinghamshire voter thought HS2 was a bit annoying but would be useful when it was done and wanted it finished.

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And "every" other country would do this? I think not.

Other countries have less branching it is true. And a Kodama from London to Birmingham wouldn’t be awful - but would also be more disruptive than just having Hikaris direct to different destinations.

 

[NCT]

If there's one painful lesson from HS2, it's that our planning system encourages tyranny of the minority.

 

[MatthewHutton]

If there's one painful lesson from HS2, it's that our planning system encourages tyranny of the minority.

I don’t think that’s true at all.

Every country would have struggled if they built a new piece of infrastructure very slowly and without local benefits through a densely populated region.

The Chuo Shinkansen was delayed because one of the provinces didn’t get a stop - even though the part of the province the line goes through is literally uninhabited.