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GTR Summer Holiday Cancellations

wls1

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Also means that connections from Medway/Dartford to Greenwich have been cut. Roll on december when the Greenwich line has SE service increases softening the blow during TL service reduction or disruption
 
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Kite159

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I can understand the withdrawal of some of those peak time additional services (London Bridge to Littlehampton/Eastbourne) during the summer holidays, they did similar during the Easter holidays I believe. Cutting back the Thameslink service to hourly between Rainham & Luton is a bit much though.

Although I wonder if those have simply been added for some positive PR spin once they become part of GBR with "Freshly nationalised Thameslink brings back some cuts made by the evil private company".
 

bramling

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We never got timetabled summer holiday cancellations of Southern Region / NSE services for weeks on end during the most recent nationalised era of the 80s or early 90s, even during let's say the 1991 recession. The full service would run through July and August. I suspect it's happening now, not because of who owns the TOCs, but due to the political norms of the 2020s. It probably would have been seen as politically unacceptable in earlier eras while it is seen as acceptable now.

It's all very well saying less people commute in high summer, and that is very likely true, but what if your regular commute is the 0647 from Eastbourne, the 0702 from Bognor or the 0703 from Uckfield and you're not on holiday? You'll be forced to get up earlier, not sure how much earlier but I'd probably guess in the Uckfield case at least, 30 minutes earlier. Back in say 1991, during another recession, in all probability you'd have a well-timed service for your morning commute 12 months of the year.

It does seem rather symptomatic of the post-Covid malaise hanging over this country which shows no signs of clearing away. One which seems to value discount dinners or theme park entries rather than worrying about the basics like having a functional economy.

Six years since Covid (and 8 eight years since the Thameslink Programme was launched) and these operators still aren’t resourced sufficiently to be able to deliver a full service, despite still being slimmed-down from 2019 service levels.

What seems to be happening is there is a greater acceptance of commuter times bearing the brunt of cuts rather than times like weekends, which takes us back to my flippant comment above about stuff like discount dinners being the political priority.

Being cynical, what will probably happen in reality is we will have the peak cuts *and* still have the usual weekend cancellations, due to the reality that people just don’t like working weekends for various reasons.
 

brad465

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It needs to cease to exist, it just doesn't make much sense. It's painfully slow on the SE side of things if you live further out and also is basically the first thing to get canned at a single whiff of disruption in terms of TL.
It definitely should, but the challenge SE have is finding the rolling stock to make regaining this route happen. They either need TL to take over a different SE service, or cutback one of their other routes. If SE's new fleet order is large enough, in future SE could take the route back without having to make other cuts, but this is a long way off and not guaranteed.
 

bramling

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It definitely should, but the challenge SE have is finding the rolling stock to make regaining this route happen. They either need TL to take over a different SE service, or cutback one of their other routes. If SE's new fleet order is large enough, in future SE could take the route back without having to make other cuts, but this is a long way off and not guaranteed.

The other problem is where the displaced TL service goes. Essentially it has to go somewhere, which was how Rainham happened in the first place. I’m not sure how viable Herne Hill siding would be given the need to cross the layout at Blackfriars.

I agree though that in principle Rainham needs to go.
 

MikeWM

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10:21 Cambridge to Brighton

This is the first Thameslink service of the day from Cambridge where you can get a Network Card discount. I find it very hard to believe the supposed rationale that numbers drop on this service during the summer holidays, it's not in any sense a commuter train.

What this will do is increase the number of people trying to squeeze onto the 1010 'Cruiser' service, which in my experience is already full-and-standing most days leaving Cambridge, presumably for the same reason.
 

London Trains

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Saturday cancellations:

05:51 West Hampstead to Rainham
06:51 West Hampstead to Rainham
07:21 West Hampstead to Rainham will only run between Kentish Town and Rainham
06:55 Bedford to Rainham
08:17 Luton to Rainham
09:17 Luton to Rainham
10:17 Luton to Rainham
11:17 Luton to Rainham
12:17 Luton to Rainham
13:17 Luton to Rainham
14:17 Luton to Rainham
15:17 Luton to Rainham
16:17 Luton to Rainham
17:17 Luton to Rainham
18:17 Luton to Rainham
19:17 Luton to Rainham
20:56 Kentish Town to Rainham
21:56 Kentish Town to Gillingham

04:36 Gillingham to St Albans
05:30 Rainham to Luton will only run between Rainham and Kentish Town
06:30 Rainham to Luton
07:30 Rainham to Luton
08:30 Rainham to Luton
09:30 Rainham to Luton
10:30 Rainham to Luton
11:30 Rainham to Luton
12:30 Rainham to Luton
13:30 Rainham to Luton
14:30 Rainham to Luton
15:30 Rainham to Luton
16:30 Rainham to Luton
17:30 Rainham to West Hampstead
18:00 Rainham to West Hampstead will only run between Rainham and Kentish Town
18:30 Rainham to Kentish Town
19:30 Rainham to Kentish Town
20:30 Rainham to Kentish Town
21:30 Rainham to Kentish Town
22:30 Rainham to Dartford
 

Class 466

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Saturday cancellations:

05:51 West Hampstead to Rainham
06:51 West Hampstead to Rainham
07:21 West Hampstead to Rainham will only run between Kentish Town and Rainham
06:55 Bedford to Rainham
08:17 Luton to Rainham
09:17 Luton to Rainham
10:17 Luton to Rainham
11:17 Luton to Rainham
12:17 Luton to Rainham
13:17 Luton to Rainham
14:17 Luton to Rainham
15:17 Luton to Rainham
16:17 Luton to Rainham
17:17 Luton to Rainham
18:17 Luton to Rainham
19:17 Luton to Rainham
20:56 Kentish Town to Rainham
21:56 Kentish Town to Gillingham

04:36 Gillingham to St Albans
05:30 Rainham to Luton will only run between Rainham and Kentish Town
06:30 Rainham to Luton
07:30 Rainham to Luton
08:30 Rainham to Luton
09:30 Rainham to Luton
10:30 Rainham to Luton
11:30 Rainham to Luton
12:30 Rainham to Luton
13:30 Rainham to Luton
14:30 Rainham to Luton
15:30 Rainham to Luton
16:30 Rainham to Luton
17:30 Rainham to West Hampstead
18:00 Rainham to West Hampstead will only run between Rainham and Kentish Town
18:30 Rainham to Kentish Town
19:30 Rainham to Kentish Town
20:30 Rainham to Kentish Town
21:30 Rainham to Kentish Town
22:30 Rainham to Dartford
So hourly all day on what can be very busy busy summer Saturdays? What’s changed this year compared to the past 3-4? Top quality.
 

brad465

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So hourly all day on what can be very busy busy summer Saturdays? What’s changed this year compared to the past 3-4? Top quality.
At least Southeastern have their two return-trip summer specials still going, which will probably be even more in demand now along the North Kent line (although it is coast-orientated, so not of help for those going into London for the day).
 

nw1

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Saturday cancellations:

05:51 West Hampstead to Rainham
06:51 West Hampstead to Rainham
07:21 West Hampstead to Rainham will only run between Kentish Town and Rainham
06:55 Bedford to Rainham
08:17 Luton to Rainham
[snip - every hour]
19:17 Luton to Rainham
20:56 Kentish Town to Rainham
21:56 Kentish Town to Gillingham

04:36 Gillingham to St Albans
05:30 Rainham to Luton will only run between Rainham and Kentish Town
06:30 Rainham to Luton
[snip - every hour]
16:30 Rainham to Luton
17:30 Rainham to West Hampstead
18:00 Rainham to West Hampstead will only run between Rainham and Kentish Town
18:30 Rainham to Kentish Town
19:30 Rainham to Kentish Town
20:30 Rainham to Kentish Town
21:30 Rainham to Kentish Town
22:30 Rainham to Dartford

So this obviously isn't just about less commuting in July and August, by the looks of it.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

This is the first Thameslink service of the day from Cambridge where you can get a Network Card discount. I find it very hard to believe the supposed rationale that numbers drop on this service during the summer holidays, it's not in any sense a commuter train.
Indeed, a 1021 Cambridge to London would probably be significantly more busy during the school holidays, not less.
 

OneOfThe48

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From the explanation from their website quoted earlier in the thread, the changes are the result of the big drop off in more expensive fare paying commuters. There will be a small increase in the number of people using less expensive off-peak fares, but overall usage will still be lower and overall fare revenue will be lower still

If they’ve been told to quickly cut costs there’s not much you can do other than reduce the service

I’m sure every train will have a good reason to keep it - and pointing at individual trains probably misses the point if the changes are caused by the wider operating environment

What’s changed this year compared to the past 3-4?

Perhaps DfT budgets given the fares freeze?
 

MikeWM

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From the explanation from their website quoted earlier in the thread, the changes are the result of the big drop off in more expensive fare paying commuters. There will be a small increase in the number of people using less expensive off-peak fares, but overall usage will still be lower and overall fare revenue will be lower still

I agree that you can interpret 'A small number of services will also be withdrawn on some routes where the number of peak time or off-peak passengers falls over the school holidays' as meaning 'we'll cut some services even if they are well-used because we're going to be losing money on other services on the same route', but I'm sure the vast majority of people would read it as 'we're cutting the specific services which are less used over the school holidays'.

As someone who has been pro-renationalisation for a very long time indeed, and also a huge critic of GTR - I have to say I really don't like the way this is going.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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I agree that you can interpret 'A small number of services will also be withdrawn on some routes where the number of peak time or off-peak passengers falls over the school holidays' as meaning 'we'll cut some services even if they are well-used because we're going to be losing money on other services on the same route', but I'm sure the vast majority of people would read it as 'we're cutting the specific services which are less used over the school holidays'.

As someone who has been pro-renationalisation for a very long time indeed, and also a huge critic of GTR - I have to say I really don't like the way this is going.
You can imagine every operator has been targeted with this action and perhaps those with high levels of rest day working have an easy option to save a few quid?
 

brad465

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I do wonder if the government policy of reducing attraction costs this summer and various service cutbacks are a cocktail of overcrowding in the making, especially as London will be at the centre of a lot of the attractions impacted. Good job this isn't happening at the same time the Universal theme park has opened alongside Wixams station.
 

bramling

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I do wonder if the government policy of reducing attraction costs this summer and various service cutbacks are a cocktail of overcrowding in the making, especially as London will be at the centre of a lot of the attractions impacted. Good job this isn't happening at the same time the Universal theme park has opened alongside Wixams station.

I find it hard to reconcile

* there isn’t enough money to deliver a full rail service (supposedly an essential public service)

with

* money sloshing around for discounted admissions to attractions (which are essentially a luxury)
 

Magdalia

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As someone with a long memory and a background in economics I take a rather different view.

Over my lifetime experience of using the railway, spread over more than half a century, it has become very bad at adjusting supply to match changes in demand. Although I don't remember reductions in services specifically related to school summer holidays, I do remember in the 1970s and 1980s service cutbacks during every economic downturn as the railway tried to reduce costs to match reductions in revenue. In 1981 the new timetable was delayed by 3 weeks to give time to implement a new round of cuts.

Nobody objects when bus companies have services that run on schooldays only, and airlines are continuously adjusting supply to meet changes in demand. In order to reduce the railway's cost to taxpayers, it needs to get much better at not wasting their money carting fresh air about. This has some rough edges, but it is a start.

06:05 Littlehampton to London Bridge
06:47 Eastbourne to London Bridge
07:02 Bognor Regis to London Bridge

17:03 London Bridge to Eastbourne
17:33 London Bridge to Littlehampton
18:03 London Bridge to Bognor Regis

For example, I would have been very surprised if these had not been taken out during the school summer holidays.

It's all very well saying less people commute in high summer, and that is very likely true, but what if your regular commute is the 0647 from Eastbourne, the 0702 from Bognor or the 0703 from Uckfield and you're not on holiday?
You find another way of making your journey, possibly involving a change on route, just like you did during the long period when they were not in the timetable at all (and it would be better to say fewer people commute in high summer).

Indeed, a 1021 Cambridge to London would probably be significantly more busy during the school holidays, not less.
As a user of Thameslink from Cambridge I did find this one strange, but it is part of the same unit diagram that also works these:

07:39 Brighton to Cambridge will only run between Brighton and London Bridge as a Southern service

13:14 Brighton to Cambridge



04:51 Cambridge to Brighton will only run between Cambridge and Kings Cross as a Great Northern service
10:21 Cambridge to Brighton

15:51 Cambridge to Brighton will only run between London Bridge and Brighton as a Southern service

So I think this is "collateral damage" from other cancellations, and shows how it is hard to make such cuts with a scalpel not a hatchet.

The other problem is where the displaced TL service goes. Essentially it has to go somewhere, which was how Rainham happened in the first place. I’m not sure how viable Herne Hill siding would be given the need to cross the layout at Blackfriars.

I agree though that in principle Rainham needs to go.
Hopefully these cutbacks will be the first nail in the Rainham coffin, to be buried next to Maidstone East. All day cuts on both weekdays and Saturdays does not suggest heavy use.
 

brad465

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Hopefully these cutbacks will be the first nail in the Rainham coffin, to be buried next to Maidstone East. All day cuts on both weekdays and Saturdays does not suggest heavy use.
The Maidstone East line has had a very successful service boost in recent years, and the introduction of Southeastern's Charing X services will almost certainly have helped. From December 2022 it used to be 1tph Ashford-Victoria and 1tph MDE-CHX, with the former 2tph in the peaks. Now the Charing X services go up to 2tph in the peak as a result of successive timetable changes have adding more services, including some extensions to/from Ashford, then this December this service is being introduced on Sundays. It's certainly a case of "provide it, and it will get used".

If Southeastern were able to get this service back, it will definitely be well used, I do also think it will help their revenue if they don't have to divvy it up with TL (if this is what happens), although with this being nationalised imminently I doubt this will be as big a deal. I think the easiest thing Southeastern can do is extend their Cannon St-Dartford via Lewisham and Woolwich to Gillingham, with the previous semi-fast calling pattern. The Sidcup line rounders returning all day would compensate for the skipped stops on this. I doubt the paths into Charing X exist, unless the Sidcup and/or Hayes line are prepared to sacrifice half their 4tph Charing X services.
 

NorthKent1989

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This should surely bring calls to rejig Thameslink? Commuters on the Peterborough end don’t seem to have been happy with it from the start, Maidstone never even materialised and the Rainham service has been a dead duck since its arrival replacing a highly popular semi fast service which in the era of the Elizabeth line would be handy for Medway & Gravesend commuters.

The other problem is where the displaced TL service goes. Essentially it has to go somewhere, which was how Rainham happened in the first place. I’m not sure how viable Herne Hill siding would be given the need to cross the layout at Blackfriars.

I agree though that in principle Rainham needs to go.

Could it perhaps terminate at Beckenham Junction?

Ideally though it’s best if TL stays away from the SE network except for the slightly more self contained Catford loop service

Hopefully these cutbacks will be the first nail in the Rainham coffin, to be buried next to Maidstone East. All day cuts on both weekdays and Saturdays does not suggest heavy use.

I remember back the TL Rainham service was announced and I was one of the few people who saw this as a bad idea from the get go.
If Southeastern were able to get this service back, it will definitely be well used, I do also think it will help their revenue if they don't have to divvy it up with TL (if this is what happens), although with this being nationalised imminently I doubt this will be as big a deal. I think the easiest thing Southeastern can do is extend their Cannon St-Dartford via Lewisham and Woolwich to Gillingham, with the previous semi-fast calling pattern. The Sidcup line rounders returning all day would compensate for the skipped stops on this. I doubt the paths into Charing X exist, unless the Sidcup and/or Hayes line are prepared to sacrifice half their 4tph Charing X services.

Hayes line could potentially have 2tph to Victoria via Lewisham with CHX trains fast from Ladywell, or have the restored Gillingham via Woolwich & Blackheath service run into Victoria if paths to Charing Cross aren’t available, the Victoria option would isolate the only remaining Dartford routes that are 2tph in the event of a TfL takeover as it links 2 corridors that are 2tph and aren’t likely to increase their frequency.
 

nw1

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Nobody objects when bus companies have services that run on schooldays only,

That said most of the schoolday-only bus services tend to be specifically timed for schools, rather than part of the standard off-peak pattern, or commuter services.

If there was a bus service which was schooldays only which departed a large town at say 1715 and was used heavily by commuters, and not by schoolchildren at all, I suspect it might be the source of objections for commuters who leave work in time to make that bus and would otherwise have to wait half an hour.

If there was a random cancellation of a standard off-peak pattern journey on a busy route (analagous to the 1021 ex-Cambridge) on non-schooldays, that might also be the source of objection.
 

ScotGG

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Yep. A school bus will generally only be used by schoolchildren. These reductions are to popular destinations such as Brighton, Cambridge, Greenwich and interchanges such as the Elizabeth line. All of which see a lot of leisure and summer event related/seasonal journeys
 

London Trains

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The other problem is where the displaced TL service goes. Essentially it has to go somewhere, which was how Rainham happened in the first place. I’m not sure how viable Herne Hill siding would be given the need to cross the layout at Blackfriars.

I agree though that in principle Rainham needs to go.
Luton to Orpington running all day could easily replace the service throughout the day, which would only leave a few peak extras (currently 3 in the morning and 1 in the evening I believe) that need replacing during the times where Luton to Rainham and Orpington are both running simultaneously north of the core - one of the sidings available, Herne Hill as you suggest or Bellingham could work for those?

It definitely should, but the challenge SE have is finding the rolling stock to make regaining this route happen. They either need TL to take over a different SE service, or cutback one of their other routes. If SE's new fleet order is large enough, in future SE could take the route back without having to make other cuts, but this is a long way off and not guaranteed.
This is well in the realms of speculation (so mods feel free to make this a new thread) but how about moving some 8-coach 700s to Southeastern? There are 60 8-coach 700s, and if Luton to Orpington and Welwyn to Sevenoaks were both running all day alongside St Albans to Sutton, that only requires 30 units, plus 3 extra for the aforementioned peak extras. After accounting for spares, that means about 20 or so 700s would be spare, which could possibly move over to Southeastern - I know it would be another microfleet, but at least they have a lot of similarities to the 707s as opposed to being an entirely new type. In this scenario a few 377s would also return to Southern and a few 387s to Great Northern, to end the use of 700s on Cambridge stoppers.
 

JonathanH

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There are 60 8-coach 700s, and if Luton to Orpington and Welwyn to Sevenoaks were both running all day alongside St Albans to Sutton, that only requires 30 units, plus 3 extra for the aforementioned peak extras. After accounting for spares, that means about 20 or so 700s would be spare, which could possibly move over to Southeastern
I don't think you have got the measure of how the 8-coach 700s are used. Around 8 at any one time are on 'internal' Kings Cross workings and a few work on otherwise 12-car routes from Bedford. Essentially the only free 700s would be the ones currently working between London Bridge and Rainham
 

London Trains

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I don't think you have got the measure of how the 8-coach 700s are used. Around 8 at any one time are on 'internal' Kings Cross workings and a few work on otherwise 12-car routes from Bedford. Essentially the only free 700s would be the ones currently working between London Bridge and Rainham
There's absolutely no need for this rude response. I notice you have removed this part of my post from the quote - "a few 377s would also return to Southern and a few 387s to Great Northern, to end the use of 700s on Cambridge stoppers" which specifically mentions the use of 8-coach 700s out of Kings Cross.
 

Mattplans

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Well we need to have a look at what the plan is for Thameslink. If we're going to scrap the initial service offerings and never meet the frequency through the core that was promised during the Thameslink programme, I don't see why some stock shouldn't be moved to other areas.

What I would personally like to see is Southeastern lose one of the Dartford routes to London Overground. A concentrated and succinct tube-like service is needed instead of the sporadic offering available at the moment.
 

JonathanH

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There's absolutely no need for this rude response. I notice you removed this part from the quote - "a few 377s would also return to Southern and a few 387s to Great Northern, to end the use of 700s on Cambridge stoppers" which specifically mentions the use of 8-coach 700s out of Kings Cross.
I didn't mean to cause offence, and sorry for not reading your point properly, but even with that, freeing up 8 700s requires 16 387s to go back to Great Northern, which presumably needs 16 377s to go to Southern?
 

Mattplans

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And there will still need to be somewhat of a shakeup of routes because the initial issue of a lack of capacity at London Terminals is still a thing.
 

Kite159

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The Maidstone East line has had a very successful service boost in recent years, and the introduction of Southeastern's Charing X services will almost certainly have helped. From December 2022 it used to be 1tph Ashford-Victoria and 1tph MDE-CHX, with the former 2tph in the peaks. Now the Charing X services go up to 2tph in the peak as a result of successive timetable changes have adding more services, including some extensions to/from Ashford, then this December this service is being introduced on Sundays. It's certainly a case of "provide it, and it will get used
And before Covid I'm sure it used to enjoy 2tph Victoria - Ashford with one extending to Canterbury West offpeak with some peak time extras.

Pretty sure 1 of those trains was all stops to Bearstead (for Leeds Castle) then nonstop to Ashford, the other being semifast to Maidstone then all stops to Ashford.
 

London Trains

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I didn't mean to cause offence, and sorry for not reading your point properly, but even with that, freeing up 8 700s requires 16 387s to go back to Great Northern, which presumably needs 16 377s to go to Southern?
Yes around 16 would need to move (possibly a few less), but even so, that would still be an increase of 12 8-coach units (effectively the equivalent of 24 extra 375/377s) for Southeastern, more than enough to cover the Rainham service returning to Southeastern. If the 458s moved to Southern as is rumoured, Southeastern then wouldn't need to lose many 377s, and the extra 700s could be used to replace some Networkers.
 

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