• Our new ticketing site is now live! Using either this or the original site (both powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

HS2 could cost up to £102.7bn and trains won't start until at least 2036

Nicholas Lewis

Established Member
Joined
9 Aug 2019
Messages
8,060
Location
Surrey
Agree completely. Hinkley Point C is supposed to be costing an inflation adjusted £45-50bn. That’s just for one, undeniably large, but still just one, power station.
Its not costing the British taxpayer though as EdF have to fund it out of their own resources then they get the investment back from the fixed price they sell the power albeit its indexed linked and currently at 129/MWhr. This still tops even gas fired generation whish is at an elevated £110/MWh from the Hormuz debacle so despite the delay they will recover their costs if it works as specified.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

Trainman40083

Established Member
Joined
29 Jan 2024
Messages
4,754
Location
Derby
Absolutely hit the nail on the head here. All trains should be full length using units which can run at full speed, and all tickets should be fully flexible (peak and off-peak only) with reasonable fares. I am pro-HS2, but regardless of that, it is clear the WCML is  not being used to its full capacity, which it should be.
But what do you mean by full length units at full speed? Would full length trains fit in all platforms at the key stations? What about the mix between trains that day run non stop London to Crewe set against say, the London Midland Trent Valley semi fast, even dodging the slower services. Would all the relevant depots have room for full sized units?
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
114,003
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
The concept that the WCML is "at capacity" doesn't quite fit with actuality. Trains consistently run with less than the optimum formation (remember Class 86 plus 13 coach formations?).

13 x 20 =260.

11 car Pendolinos are 265m long.

Yes, there's 15m or so of loco there too. But it's not much different.

Sure not all services are 11 car. But there just isn't demand at some times of day. Few would want to travel at 3am even if it was free.
 

Trainman40083

Established Member
Joined
29 Jan 2024
Messages
4,754
Location
Derby
13 x 20 =260.

11 car Pendolinos are 265m long.

Yes, there's 15m or so of loco there too. But it's not much different.

Sure not all services are 11 car. But there just isn't demand at some times of day. Few would want to travel at 3am even if it was free.
And some of the 13 coach trains was either a buffet car and a brake van.
 

London Trains

Established Member
Joined
9 Oct 2017
Messages
1,241
But what do you mean by full length units at full speed? Would full length trains fit in all platforms at the key stations? What about the mix between trains that day run non stop London to Crewe set against say, the London Midland Trent Valley semi fast, even dodging the slower services. Would all the relevant depots have room for full sized units?
Full length units as in 11 coach Pendolinos, or units of a similar length (265m) - the use of 5 and 7 coach (and even 9 coach to an extent) units is a complete waste of capacity.
 

JamieL

Member
Joined
6 Aug 2022
Messages
969
Location
UK
The plan was for the stops between Crewe and Lancaster to be worked by a portion from the back of the London-Liverpool service.
Is that still the plan though? It made sense when the Golborne Link bypassed Warrington but all that is gone now.
 

Taunton

Veteran Member
Joined
1 Aug 2013
Messages
12,351
13 x 20 =260.

11 car Pendolinos are 265m long.

Yes, there's 15m or so of loco there too. But it's not much different.

Sure not all services are 11 car. But there just isn't demand at some times of day. Few would want to travel at 3am even if it was free.
Unfortunately both the 9-car and 11-car sets are both programmed all day, seemingly regardless of demand as my regular Manchester services are quite random. The Liverpool service was in recent times cut back to 7-car 807s, and now apparently to suit the power supply that's being reduced further to 5-car bi-mode 805s. Bot maybe someone will be along soon to say the 5-car sets have more seats than the old 13-coach trains because of how closely the seats have been squeezed up ...
 

Camberman

Member
Joined
12 Aug 2020
Messages
151
Location
Camberley
Before recent retirement, the company I worked for had a VERY minor contract with HS2 (it was work of about a day a month over a timescale of a year in one their temporary compound car parking areas). The amount of information and data that was required pre-contract start and all through the works was totally disproportionate to the value of the contract. We were really glad to be fortunate to get out of the contract....

So, it doesn't surprise me in the slightest that HS2 is massively overbudget throughout to date.
 

Krokodil

Established Member
Joined
23 Jan 2023
Messages
6,642
Location
Wales
Is that still the plan though? It made sense when the Golborne Link bypassed Warrington but all that is gone now.
It would have formed part of the service from Phase 2A's completion onwards but god knows what the plan is now.
 

JD2168

Established Member
Joined
11 Jul 2022
Messages
1,738
Location
Sheffield
A complete farce from day one is my opinion of HS2. All it is now is an expensive shuttle between Birmingham & London. You’d might as well finish it considering how much building work has happened & money has been spent then run standard trains that are longer to effectively make a near 8-10 minute Birmingham to London service.

Most people in the country won’t see the benefit of it due to the sections north of Birmingham being removed

The trains that will run on this will be slower than originally planned & when running along the rest of the WCML will be slower than the current Pendolino’s presumably due to the tilting you get on the Pendolino’s which doesn’t seem like much progress at all.
 

Dave61

Member
Joined
8 Mar 2026
Messages
156
Location
Long Eaton
Before recent retirement, the company I worked for had a VERY minor contract with HS2 (it was work of about a day a month over a timescale of a year in one their temporary compound car parking areas). The amount of information and data that was required pre-contract start and all through the works was totally disproportionate to the value of the contract. We were really glad to be fortunate to get out of the contract....

So, it doesn't surprise me in the slightest that HS2 is massively overbudget throughout to date.
That is quite common on such large projects. The Contractors subcontracting to you (as is usually the case) will pass on every single requirement and document to you so that they can't be accused of withholding anything, and your poor guys pricing up your bit would have had to wade through the lot of it. I say your poor guys as I had experience of this doing standby diesel generating sets in the last century(!), so know how it feels.
 

Farang

Member
Joined
17 May 2018
Messages
151
In the Guardian someone has commented on a Martin Rowson cartoon about HS2.

"£102bn.

It would have been cheaper to move Birmingham to London."


Which is a variation on Lord Lew Grade's comment about Raise the Titanic: "It would have been cheaper to lower the Atlantic".
 

Kilopylae

Member
Joined
9 Jan 2018
Messages
1,111
Location
Uxbridge (ex Devon)
The concept that the WCML is "at capacity" doesn't quite fit with actuality. Trains consistently run with less than the optimum formation (remember Class 86 plus 13 coach formations?). The Fast lines, which used to be wholly 125mph services, then had 110mph services pushed in, which absorb multiple paths ahead of them. The WCML improvements of a generation ago that were meant to add capacity in things like power supply, nowadays come out of the woodwork that they were cancelled, sometimes halfway completed, so someone could claim coming in within budget. Leading to 807s having to now be run under the wires on diesel.

Euston station concourse being overloaded, principally because of a commercial policy that if you don't make your booked train, your expensive ticket is ripped up. A operating policy that provides a Turn-Up-And-Go every 20 minute service from London to Manchester, only for a fare strategy the direct opposite of Turn-Up-And-Go, that the only reasonable fares need you to get there for one train only. And more.
This is a very good post, especially the observation about the fares strategy clashing with the almost turn-up-and-go timetable.
 

mike57

Established Member
Joined
13 Mar 2015
Messages
2,408
Location
East coast of Yorkshire
The concept that the WCML is "at capacity" doesn't quite fit with actuality. Trains consistently run with less than the optimum formation (remember Class 86 plus 13 coach formations?). The Fast lines, which used to be wholly 125mph services, then had 110mph services pushed in, which absorb multiple paths ahead of them. The WCML improvements of a generation ago that were meant to add capacity in things like power supply, nowadays come out of the woodwork that they were cancelled, sometimes halfway completed, so someone could claim coming in within budget. Leading to 807s having to now be run under the wires on diesel.

Euston station concourse being overloaded, principally because of a commercial policy that if you don't make your booked train, your expensive ticket is ripped up. A operating policy that provides a Turn-Up-And-Go every 20 minute service from London to Manchester, only for a fare strategy the direct opposite of Turn-Up-And-Go, that the only reasonable fares need you to get there for one train only. And more.
My take away from this post: We have/are spending £100b on a project whilst not getting the best out of the infrastructure we already have.

So a theoretical question which I will open as a thread in the speculative discussion. If we had spent £20b on the WCML instead of £100b on HS2, new rolling stock, signalling, platform lenghts, whatever, and gone for 'best quality' rather than cheapest what could the result look like. As examples of 'best quality' any power supply upgrades would allow for decent growth rather than being just enough, rolling stock orders would include extra carriages, and all with high quality interiors. Also address issues like fares structure.
 

mmh

Established Member
Joined
13 Aug 2016
Messages
4,348
There seems to be a misplaced view shared by a few on here that services between London and Scotland will be slower than at present. This is patently untrue. A few minutes lost by the inability to tilt will be more than compensated for by the time saved between Euston and Handsacre Junction.
Not everyone is going to London.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

The plan was for the stops between Crewe and Lancaster to be worked by a portion from the back of the London-Liverpool service.
Was that a plan, or what people on this forum came up with as a possibility?

Another failing of HS2 was not giving any decent idea of what a post-HS2 service would look like.
 

class26

Established Member
Joined
4 May 2011
Messages
1,200
Would you care to point to the relevant post because all I can see is one poster who did sums on the basis that you'd take HS2 to Curzon Street and then go via Wolves from there, and another who expects to see 895s running through MKC.

I can't find any post calculating slower timings for Euston-OOC-Handsacre-Glasgow than the present route via Tamworth.

I can do some sums though. There will be a 27 minute saving between Euston and Handsacre due to HS2. You're not saying that it would take an 895 27 minutes more to get from Handacre to Glasgow than it takes a 390? Especially when the 895 wouldn't be calling at Penrith/Oxenholme/Lancaster/Wigan/Warrington? And when 397s and 80x have little trouble keeping up?
also rememebr the *95`s will acceleraste faster than the 390`s
 

styles

Established Member
Joined
7 Dec 2014
Messages
4,967
Location
Gwynedd
Sure not all services are 11 car. But there just isn't demand at some times of day. Few would want to travel at 3am even if it was free.
Oh I think you'd fill a lot of train seats even at 3am if they were free. People jump at cheap coach services and even the cheap Caledonian Sleeper seated section, and both of those are where they're paying for it and it's an inferior service. If you ran a high speed train from London to Birmingham at 3am for free, I think it would get quite busy.
 

jfowkes

Established Member
Joined
20 Jul 2017
Messages
1,271
Another failing of HS2 was not giving any decent idea of what a post-HS2 service would look like.
Not sure I agree with this. HS2 proposed service patterns were easy to find. For example just searching for "proposed HS2 service pattern" finds this 2013 document that does exactly that: https://assets.publishing.service.g...on_of_the_service_patterns__January_2013_.pdf. It even has the service pattern changing as each phase is built. They did think about this stuff.

There are loads of HS2/DfT PDFs with reams of comparative data about various options.
 

JamesT

Established Member
Joined
25 Feb 2015
Messages
4,922
My take away from this post: We have/are spending £100b on a project whilst not getting the best out of the infrastructure we already have.

So a theoretical question which I will open as a thread in the speculative discussion. If we had spent £20b on the WCML instead of £100b on HS2, new rolling stock, signalling, platform lenghts, whatever, and gone for 'best quality' rather than cheapest what could the result look like. As examples of 'best quality' any power supply upgrades would allow for decent growth rather than being just enough, rolling stock orders would include extra carriages, and all with high quality interiors. Also address issues like fares structure.
This was investigated before HS2 was started, see https://assets.publishing.service.g...59c6/hs2-review-of-strategic-alternatives.pdf
The proposed interventions deliver
considerably fewer benefits than a new line,
particularly with regard to reduced journey
times between urban centres and the ability
to use the resultant freed capacity on the
classic network to develop new markets and
provide for continuing freight growth. So
whilst some of the proposed enhancements
may offer limited and short term
opportunities for improving capacity on
some areas of the route, the requirement for
a new line to relieve capacity in the longer
term remains and therefore would have to
be delivered, in addition to these proposals,
in any case.
Also, given the inability to deliver HS2 on time or budget, what are the chances these WCML upgrades would be any different?
 

Nicholas Lewis

Established Member
Joined
9 Aug 2019
Messages
8,060
Location
Surrey
Before recent retirement, the company I worked for had a VERY minor contract with HS2 (it was work of about a day a month over a timescale of a year in one their temporary compound car parking areas). The amount of information and data that was required pre-contract start and all through the works was totally disproportionate to the value of the contract. We were really glad to be fortunate to get out of the contract....

So, it doesn't surprise me in the slightest that HS2 is massively overbudget throughout to date.
Interesting insight and doesn't surprise me in the slightest as that is lot of carry across from how RT/NR evolved post British Rail when consultants got involved in everything we did and magnified the amount of paperwork and approvals because it generated work for them. Then not to be outdone the client organisation ie RT/NR wanted to have a place at the table as well so we'd start double checking what consultants were doing and all too often that was appropriate. This led us to believe that we would be better off providing more oversight but RT/NR in that era preferred outsourcing model largely because the directors of the day had come from industries where that was how things were delivered.
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
114,003
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
Oh I think you'd fill a lot of train seats even at 3am if they were free. People jump at cheap coach services and even the cheap Caledonian Sleeper seated section, and both of those are where they're paying for it and it's an inferior service. If you ran a high speed train from London to Birmingham at 3am for free, I think it would get quite busy.

People don't "jump at cheap coach services". The entirety of the London to Scotland coach market in a day could probably squash into a single 3 car Class 730/0, while the Sleeper seats are just 20-odd per route per day (or a total of, again, about a single 730/0 if that). The entirety of the London-Manchester coach service in a day would easily fit into a Pendolino with seats for everyone. All tiny markets.

If you ran a high speed train from London to Birmingham at 3am for free it'd have maybe 20 people on it, I reckon. More than if you charged for it, sure, but people just don't want to travel at those times.

Yes, a lot of people take flights at 6am which tends to mean getting up at 3, but that's because of the way Ryanair etc work at bases - other more convenient times are simply not on offer.
 

mike57

Established Member
Joined
13 Mar 2015
Messages
2,408
Location
East coast of Yorkshire
what are the chances these WCML upgrades would be any different?
Probably not very good based on the HS2 experience. The only saving grace maybe that individual projects are easier to keep on track than one major project and some of the HS2 issues would not be a (or as big a) problem, e.g. Planning, NIMBYism, large scale civil engineering, and the benefits would filter through in a more timely manner.

As you can tell I am not a fan of HS2 in its current guise, and I think it should have been abandonded completely once the Manchester and Leeds legs were scrapped. My belief is there was a point where it was very close to being scrapped. Had the full scope been delivered than my opinion does a full U turn, as it then delivers something that benefits a much wider area and brings some real improvements, so yes I supported the original concept.
 

growse

Member
Joined
29 Apr 2010
Messages
78
So a theoretical question which I will open as a thread in the speculative discussion. If we had spent £20b on the WCML instead of £100b on HS2, new rolling stock, signalling, platform lenghts, whatever, and gone for 'best quality' rather than cheapest what could the result look like. As examples of 'best quality' any power supply upgrades would allow for decent growth rather than being just enough, rolling stock orders would include extra carriages, and all with high quality interiors. Also address issues like fares structure.
How long would it be reasonable to completely shut the WCML for whilst this work happened?

What about freight? How are longer platofrorms going to decrease the cost of moving a container from Wolverhampton to London Gateway?

Capacity is not just about "number of seats", it's about paths. Putting some more seats on a Euston express doesn't buy you any more Northampton paths.
 
Last edited:

SCDR_WMR

Established Member
Joined
17 Dec 2017
Messages
2,639
Location
Crewe
Taking that £49bn should be buying all the infrastructure (trains too?) it is a total disgrace that just part could cost over £100bn.
Is it though?

If I look at my costs compared with 2019;
Home energy is 3x higher.
Food costs are 2-2.5x higher.
Fuel costs around 1.5x higher.
Childcare is 1.5x higher.

Salary is 1.3x higher.

We are all feeling the pinch, nothing costs what it did back then regardless of scope changes.
Interest rates are higher so borrowing costs are higher, leading toa limited set annual budget which lead to increased overall cost. (12 years at £6B is far more than 8 years at £8B)
 

Bantamzen

Established Member
Joined
4 Dec 2013
Messages
10,511
Location
Cheshire
This news has made me dig out this Viz Top Tip from 13 years ago.


View attachment 204540
It's probably the most sensible decision suggested on HS2 in that time.

But by the gods, just how bad are we in this country at major projects? We have layers of legislation, consultants, public inquiries, NIMBYs, environmentalists, more consultants, and politicians all making what should have been a fairly no-brainer project go vastly over budget, that under delivers in both capacity and areas served. Give it a few more years and the speeds will be down to 75mph and any remaining Class 142/3/4s owned by heritage lines will be press-ganged back into use....

It's just insane, and does not give me any confidence that we'll get any projects that could deliver real benefits to the country and it's population off the design table / PowerPoint presentations and into reality. I'm going to take it as read that the extension to Manchester is dead in the water, as will be NPR.
 

styles

Established Member
Joined
7 Dec 2014
Messages
4,967
Location
Gwynedd
People don't "jump at cheap coach services". The entirety of the London to Scotland coach market in a day could probably squash into a single 3 car Class 730/0, while the Sleeper seats are just 20-odd per route per day (or a total of, again, about a single 730/0 if that). The entirety of the London-Manchester coach service in a day would easily fit into a Pendolino with seats for everyone. All tiny markets.

If you ran a high speed train from London to Birmingham at 3am for free it'd have maybe 20 people on it, I reckon. More than if you charged for it, sure, but people just don't want to travel at those times.

Yes, a lot of people take flights at 6am which tends to mean getting up at 3, but that's because of the way Ryanair etc work at bases - other more convenient times are simply not on offer.
There's 4 overnight NX coach services from London to Glasgow tonight and the first one only has 4 seats left.

There's 11 overnight Flixbus coach services from London to Glasgow tonight, all of which are 'Almost full' (I haven't opened the seat selector to check exactly what that's defined as, but if it were a misrepresentation I doubt they'd run 11 services when they could condense it into say 5 for example).

The Megabus site isn't playing ball for me but I assume they run some buses between the two also.

This ignores walk-up fares, though I doubt there's loads of those on such a long route, but I've been known to do it when say trains or flights have been cancelled or I've been delayed.

Every seat is sold out on the Caledonian Sleeper for London to Glasgow for tonight.

The easyJet and Ryanair flights are almost all sold out (I can see a handful of tickets on a 9pm easyJet flight tonight).

So I do think it's fair to say people jump at cheap travel. If you provided it for free, you can bet that demand would go up. Heck, when I lived in London I'd be taking a free train to Glasgow every other weekend to go hiking, as would a bunch of my mates.

That's before even considering that London-Scotland is on the more extreme end - the market for people doing just London-Birmingham for example would be massive.

There is absolutely no way that if you ran a free train from London to Birmingham at 3am that only 20 people would be on board. In fact I've slept at Wolverhampton station on an overnight Avanti journey with a long break and slept in the waiting room with nearly as many people; and that's a journey which cost money and involved many hours interchange.
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
114,003
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
There is absolutely no way that if you ran a free train from London to Birmingham at 3am that only 20 people would be on board. In fact I've slept at Wolverhampton station on an overnight Avanti journey with a long break and slept in the waiting room with nearly as many people; and that's a journey which cost money and involved many hours interchange.

I'm going to bet that the vast majority of the people also kipping in the waiting room had simply missed the last train and didn't have the funds for a hotel, and were not making overnight journeys with a long break by choice. Enthusiasts have done this for years, but normal people simply don't, bar a subset of young people who don't care for comfort (the same ones who would be going round places like South East Asia getting their only sleep on overnight buses).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

There's 4 overnight NX coach services from London to Glasgow tonight and the first one only has 4 seats left.

Total capacity about 200.

There's 11 overnight Flixbus coach services from London to Glasgow tonight, all of which are 'Almost full' (I haven't opened the seat selector to check exactly what that's defined as, but if it were a misrepresentation I doubt they'd run 11 services when they could condense it into say 5 for example).

I must admit to being surprised by there being that many. Before Flix it was a couple of NX and a couple of Megabus. Is this Flix managing to convince tourists that they're the best option? Having said that, those passengers would all fit in one Pendolino, and they're probably choosing overnight primarily because it's such a long trip by coach.

The Sleeper seats are irrelevant. Each night the full capacity across all trains would fit in a 153.
 

Top