HS2 could cost up to £102.7bn and trains won't start until at least 2036

[lfc84]

someone once said to me that it should have started in the north and headed south towards euston.

if that happened you could be sure it would be built in it's entirety because the political will would have been there to get it into London !

 

[TrainTraveler]

Personally I don't think many passengers want Euston. I think what passengers generally want is a way of joining the London transport network and for that Old Oak Common is a reasonable start.

The terminus stations near the city will have a good proportion of passengers walking to their destination. I don't think Euston will have anything like the proportion on foot.

 

[Tetragon213]

What is it about building railways through the Chilterns? When the Manchester, Sheffield and Lincolnshire (aka Money Sunk and Lost) built its London Extension to Marylebone and renamed itself the Great Central it was said that the money had Gone Completely. So what's new?!

Rich toffs being stubborn and having far too much undue influence, because god forbid their little lilywhite scented eyes have to see the horror of a stray wire at 50,000 paces.

Unfortunately, that whole area is NIMBYland to the high heavens.

 

[DarloRich]

Rich toffs being stubborn and having far too much undue influence, because god forbid their little lilywhite scented eyes have to see the horror of a stray wire at 50,000 paces.

Unfortunately, that whole area is NIMBYland to the high heavens.

If this railway was being built in Middlesbrough the line would be open. Whole areas would be demolished and the plebs told to get on with it. Cant have that in Bucks!

 

[Chris125]

HS2 is like the Edinburgh Tramway, the logic of completing it more-or-less as originally intended is undeniable and it will happen eventually... but there won't be political support for this until the general public experience it first hand.

 

[Sorcerer]

So the Channel Tunnel, which must surely be far more complicated, took 7 years... Why is this taking so long?

The Channel Tunnel didn't have to deal with NIMBYs or protests because it's mostly an undersea tunnel. It's railway system was also merely an extension of the LGV Nord. By contrast HS2 runs through some affluent areas and ancient woodlands that environmentalists would rather see burn down in the long term through climate change causing forest fires than two railway lines running through and taking cars and lorries off the road (hyperbolic on my end).

 

[class26]

Surprised? No.
Sadly this country could not engineer itself out of a paper bag even supplied with scissors.

It could if the government wasn`t in charge !

 

[Sorcerer]

someone once said to me that it should have started in the north and headed south towards euston.

if that happened you could be sure it would be built in it's entirety because the political will would have been there to get it into London !

It might've done so, especially since that's how HS1 was done (start from the bottom and work your way to London) but it wouldn't have resolved the issue of capacity and bottlenecks in the south which is where the route was most needed. Even with the only section serving London there was still uncertainty as to whether it would go all the way.

 

[samulih]

Then again 100bn goverment subsidy to construction firms on bit of a downward turn is not a such a bad thing, TPU contracting local workers, not sure in this project.

 

[Northerngirl]

I cant say im surprised, but how it can possibly be another 10 years, even given the most bloated management ect, the infrastructure is basically done, 10 years of track laying is inconceivablely slow

 

[HighlandStorm]

2036!?

Just, unbelievable...

And unforgivable. Reduced hourly capacity, slower speed, shorter trains + longer journey times and less capacity to Scotland than exists today and that only once/if Handsacre junction opens (2043 to 2046 eta ffs).

So will Scotland services see the Pendolinos replaced by HS2 trains entirely on the WCML due the timescales now envisaged for the WCML tie in. Big loss of capacity and / or significant degradation of the onboard experience, plus lengthened journey times!

It’s just not acceptable when we should be seeking to shift remaining domestic air travel except the islands to rail.

It’s also economic illiteracy - stretching it out even longer means costs will rise even further, with out any revenue or benefits starting to flow from it. Surely better to ramp it up and get it earning.

 

[Northerngirl]

Not to get political, but a cynical part of me says this is all a stunt for Burnham to "save" the railway with some GBR nonsense when he comes in to office

 

[MerlinRail 804]

Surely there has to be ways to cut the costs without cutting and delaying the end result even further?

 

[Sussex Star]

Presumably yes (such a geographically expansive cancellation has never happened before, although I note that Reform UK, at least of September 2025, would simply cancel HS2 and leave the semi-completed infrastructure in place like some sort of Ozymandias-like warning to anyone who might dare to build something ambitious in the future).

Also, there would be massive penalty clauses which the contractors/suppliers would claim.

Thanks

 

[gravitystorm]

Genuine question: how, as the minister claims, can it cost as much to cancel the project as to spend another 10 years and billions of pounds finishing it?

Is it because we'd have to spend years and billions dismantling and filling in stuff already built to make it safe?

In short, yes. Mark Wild has written a three-page letter on this if you want to know more: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hs2-cancellation-cost-advice . As I wrote in the HS2 reset thread:

"overall cancellation and remediation cost estimate from £33bn to as high as £58bn (2025 prices)." This is assuming a "Realistic Remediation Scenario”, one where a law is passed allowing HS2 to leave various structures in situ. Without such legislation, "the current legal position is that land should be fully remediated, which would include demolishing all built assets, and returning land to the same condition as prior to construction". This was seen as being unrealistic given the cost to demolish all the viaducts and fill in all the tunnels, so no estimate was made for that scenario.

 

[mike57]

The other problem is there will be at least two more General Elections, and likely changes of governments between now and completion.

(And no comments on the relative merits of the political parties)

So the political ramifications

If Reform are elected it will be on the back of the electorate in the Midlands, East Anglia and the North, some of these areas should have benefited from the original HS2. Everything that is now served by MML/ECML will now see little or no benefit, and Manchester and the NW will see far less benefit that the original plans. If they cancelled HS2 their voter base wouldn't be affected.

A Conservative Government seems one of the less likely options, and they haven't really made any noises as to what they would do.

Some sort of LibDem/Green/Left wing coalition is a possibility, but its going to be quite stessed coalition, no doubt made worse by the 'markets' tacking umbridge, so I see lip service but no fiscal room to actually deliver anything

Another Labour government has to be least likely given current polling so any decisions taken by the current government will be likely overturned by the incoming administration if only to be seen 'to be doing something'

HS2 has to be one of the biggest messes since WW2, and possibly longer. The best thing the government could do now would be to throw everything at it to get the bit they have finished, maybe as a 300kph railway, and at least get some use. Forget Euston for now, just finish the bit thats started and get some trains running, because every year that it drags on means its more likely to be subject political whim

 

[Krokodil]

If I understand correctly (and I admit I may be mistaken), doesn't this preclude any increase in frequency beyond the 10tph without further infrastructure works on what would be (hopefully) a working railway

It depends what changes they're actually making. The savings from reducing the speeds are likely to mostly come from avoiding the need to test to the higher speed, in which case there's no reason that overnight testing cannot take place without disruption once the line is operational. For frequency it depends what the changes are, if it's just removing the ATO capabilty, does this just bolt on to the same ETCS system? In which case it could be added and tested for at a later date, while the line is operational and this would be when and if phase 2 is on the way.

£97bn (taking the average of high and low estimates). That is the total cost over roughly 18 years. Government spending is about £1.37tn per annum, according to the OBR.

Granted, money has been wasted, but not being hypnotised by a single number helps ...

What year's prices is the £97bn based on? Some of the prices the media likes to come up with as an example of "cost overruns" haven't accounted for inflation or changes in scope (like rolling stock which would have needed ordering regardless because the Pendos will not last forever)

 

[Aaron_TTL]

the infrastructure is basically done

Is it really? Looking at some recent drone videos here: https://www.youtube.com/@DroneFunUK/videos I would disagree.

 

[perstreperous]

What year's prices is the £97bn based on? Some of the prices the media likes to come up with as an example of "cost overruns" haven't accounted for inflation or changes in scope (like rolling stock which would have needed ordering regardless because the Pendos will not last forever)

It is "priced in 2025" according to the Parliamentary statement, and the OBR figure is a "2025-6 estimate".

 

[Krokodil]

It is "priced in 2025" according to the Parliamentary statement, and the OBR figure is a "2025-6 estimate".

And presumably that's a price for Euston-Handsacre only?

 

[perstreperous]

Is it really? Looking at some recent drone videos here: https://www.youtube.com/@DroneFunUK/videos I would disagree.

According to the latest six-monthly report to Parliament the civil engineering continues to 2029 or 2030 (charts with incomplete labels on the axes are a downer ...)

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 May 2026 ==

And presumably that's a price for Euston-Handsacre only?

According to the BBC Live page:

This covers the cost of the whole programme stretching from London Euston to Birmingham Curzon Street, as well as the connection to West Coast Main Line at Handsacre Junction.

 

[Sussex Star]

In short, yes. Mark Wild has written a three-page letter on this if you want to know more: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hs2-cancellation-cost-advice . As I wrote in the HS2 reset thread:

"overall cancellation and remediation cost estimate from £33bn to as high as £58bn (2025 prices)." This is assuming a "Realistic Remediation Scenario”, one where a law is passed allowing HS2 to leave various structures in situ. Without such legislation, "the current legal position is that land should be fully remediated, which would include demolishing all built assets, and returning land to the same condition as prior to construction". This was seen as being unrealistic given the cost to demolish all the viaducts and fill in all the tunnels, so no estimate was made for that scenario.

Very interesting thanks. With those sorts of numbers I can see why they decided to press in, albeit it seems with a lower annual spend which pushes the project into the 2040s and frees up funds for other priorities.

 

[BrianW]

This honestly all sounds like the government quiet quitting the project - extending the deadlines ridiculously by massively reducing year on year expenditure to fund their other promises while kicking the can down the road so the next government (which is obvious even to them to be anyone but Labour) can be blamed for increasing the year on year cost again to bring it back on track.

Because doing nothing is not a zero-cost option. It would cost the same to cancel what is left as it would to finish it, and what would we gain?

Crossrail went through all sorts of trouble, yet if you travel on it now it is full with the Central Line still busy but no longer creaking at the seams.


That's not the impression I got when watching the minister's statement to the house.

The published statement doesn't sound like quiet quitting to me either:

Transport Secretary ends 'era of neglect' on HS2 with thorough reset

Transport Secretary sets out new HS2 costs and timelines after a full review, taking control of the project to cut waste, speed up delivery and save billions.

www.gov.uk

 

[thenorthern]

Given how much has been spent it's unlikely the whole project will be cancelled but are there any realistic chances that parts of the existing planned route will be cut in the future?

 

[strawbrick]

Just to be clear, broadly, a penalty clause is a contractual provision which levies an excessive monetary sum unrelated to the actual harm against a defaulting party. Penalty clauses are generally unenforceable under English law. However, in the typical Construction Industry contract there is sum of money known as Liquidated Damages which payable by the Contractor should they have caused a delay to the completion of the works. This is meant to be a reasonable assessment of the actual cost of that delay to the Client - nothing at all to do with cancellation.

In the event that work is cancelled by the Client the contractor may be able to legitimately claim for loss of profit on the work not done and sad to say that in the Construction Industry this is typically les than 5% of the value.

Also, the Contractor will be paid the full costs of any works which have to be done to make any uncompleted works safe and secure (which could be done by another Contractor working directly for the Client).

 

[jfowkes]

Given how much has been spent it's unlikely the whole project will be cancelled but are there any realistic chances that parts of the existing planned route will be cut in the future?

They only bit of route that's conceivably left to cut is OOC to Euston. Everything else north of Birmingham has already been cut. Well, I suppose they could really hobble the project by getting rid of the WCML link so that HS2 is literally just a shuttle from OOC to Birmingham forever.

 

[Sussex Star]

Given how much has been spent it's unlikely the whole project will be cancelled but are there any realistic chances that parts of the existing planned route will be cut in the future?

The only bits left that are potentially cancelable are Euston and Handsacre. And given the Euston tunnels are being dug now, it's not worth cancelling the rest of it. Same goes for Handsacre once the core is up and running. What is conceivable is that it could be not far off 2050 before all three bits - core, Euston, Handsacre - are all in operation together.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Any routes changes would be hugely expensive because there are no suitable connections to the classic network.
It would also take time and cost to redesign any new junction.

HS2 crosses the classic main line at Berkswell 13 miles out from Curzon St, so you could conceivably build a junction and send HS2 trains into New St from there and axe the Curzon St branch and station.
But I don't see that being contemplated, and it would cut off the rolling stock/control centre at Washwood Heath.
And the tunnels/viaducts from Delta to Curzon St. are well under construction.
Junctions at Ruislip and Calvert wouldn't work.
.

 

[Mogster]

How much of the cost over run is due to successive governments not providing enough cash to get the job done smartly? Surely the longer it takes to build the longer you have to keep everyone employed on the job and material costs rise just due to inflation.

Of course each current administration doesn’t want to pay more than it absolutely has to. That would mean maybe short changing their particular special interest groups. So minimum funding continues, costs rise, and rise and the project timeline extends into the long grass… In the meantime the public have no new railway and become mutinous wanting the whole thing cancelled.

Incidentally the government pours ~£5bn per week into the NHS, ~£7 per day per head of population. Yes I know that’s apples and oranges. HS2 started construction in 2020 so if it’s only completed by 2040 then that’s £5bn per year?

 

[rorbla]

This is outrageous. I fail to see how the numbers stack up.

Also, how much will the reduced speed actually save as a % of total costs? I’d imagine it’s relatively small now given that much of the infrastructure has already been built for 360km/h. What a waste.

I feel like HS2 has made some people very rich at everyone else’s expense. We’re looking at ~£1bn per mile of new railway.

With this sort of money, could we potentially have gotten an extra 2 tracks along the entire WCML and a whole suite of upgrades to that?