• Our new ticketing site is now live! Using either this or the original site (both powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

HS2 could cost up to £102.7bn and trains won't start until at least 2036

och aye

Member
Joined
21 Jan 2012
Messages
1,020
Also Euston services won't start until 2040, or potentially 2043! o_O


The transport secretary has said the first HS2 services are now not expected to run from Old Oak Common to Birmingham Curzon Street until sometime between May 2036 and October 2039.

The most recent target date had been 2033.

The full scheme between London Euston and Handsacre Junction is not expected to open until between May 2040 and December 2043.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

Sorcerer

Established Member
Joined
20 May 2022
Messages
2,223
Location
Liverpool
I wish it were 1st April, but sadly we're several weeks too late. The fact it won't start immediately at Euston means there won't be that immediate convenience and capacity relief which will make the project look like a white elephant and practically kill off any political will and support for more high-speed rail. Good job that the Pendolinos will probably be able to push to the 2040s but that's the max we can probably get out of the fleet. What a joke, honestly.
 

Retorus

Member
Joined
30 Mar 2012
Messages
340
Genuinely, why are we continuing with this? Sunk cost fallacy and all that.
 

MKB

Member
Joined
15 Oct 2008
Messages
666
1) How much is daily seat capacity reduced by the speed reduction?

2) Is the problem that the line cannot be physically completed in at least another 10 years (and, if so, why not?), or that the Government wants to spread the costs over a longer period and is scaling back on effort?
 

Nicholas Lewis

Established Member
Joined
9 Aug 2019
Messages
8,058
Location
Surrey
Also Euston services won't start until 2040, or potentially 2043! o_O

Words fail me that this now at least ten years away from opening to Birmingham and potentially thirteen years oh and it would have been even worse had the design speed of 360kmh been retained!!. Given where progress already is eg all tunnels completed the likes of Colne viaduct completed and the good progress being made getting into Birmingham and the delta jcn even ten years seems ridiculous. This is in the context that this report tells us civils progress was 10% better than planned and cost less than forecast in 25/25 so things dont add up.

Anyhow this leaves the WCML and Pendolino fleet a long time to do the heavy lifting now.
 

ATS3

Member
Joined
16 Oct 2022
Messages
170
Location
London
Genuinely, why are we continuing with this? Sunk cost fallacy and all that.
Because the Mainline is at capacity, not fixing this will result in worser and worser service as the amount of passengers increase. Rather than commissioning endless reports and messing about with it, why don't the Government just commit to building it and stop worrying about short term gains.

This is the ultimate issue plaguing the country, stability. We've seemingly been having a game of musical chairs between different parties for the last 10 years with the press lapping it up and clapping along excitedly while the commoners fare increases, food bills go up and living becomes increasingly unaffordable
 

Rescars

Established Member
Joined
25 May 2021
Messages
2,610
Location
Surrey
What is it about building railways through the Chilterns? When the Manchester, Sheffield and Lincolnshire (aka Money Sunk and Lost) built its London Extension to Marylebone and renamed itself the Great Central it was said that the money had Gone Completely. So what's new?!
 

dalecn

Member
Joined
5 May 2023
Messages
5
Location
Uk
Honestly the only part I dont understand is how we're still at least a decade from opening HS2 i know the projects been mismanagened to hell but we've made quite a bit progress with the large infrastructure parts needed for HS2 to run between Old Oak Common and Birmingham i just dont get how it still so far behind.

I really hope they start looking at reinstating the Birmingham to Crewe bit as another project like some rumours have suggested cause they could probably start in the next few years and open at a similar time to Euston and then at least we would have a minimal viable project.
 

To the trains

Member
Joined
24 Mar 2022
Messages
44
Location
Bath
You couldn't make it up. I'm fully in favour of HS2 in principle but the implementation is diabolical. The west coast mainline has been stuffed full for years, and something needs to be done about it (which a railway from not very central London to not very central Brum won't do enough for, still all the trains north of Birmingham delicately slotting around each other)
 

iainp

Member
Joined
12 Aug 2020
Messages
22
Location
Musselburgh
Surprised? No.
Sadly this country could not engineer itself out of a paper bag even supplied with scissors.
 

reduke

Member
Joined
31 Aug 2017
Messages
102
This honestly all sounds like the government quiet quitting the project - extending the deadlines ridiculously by massively reducing year on year expenditure to fund their other promises while kicking the can down the road so the next government (which is obvious even to them to be anyone but Labour) can be blamed for increasing the year on year cost again to bring it back on track.
 

LNW-GW Joint

Veteran Member
Joined
22 Feb 2011
Messages
21,961
Location
Mold, Clwyd
Heidi Alexander did not answer the Lib Dem question about whether the new cost estimates include rolling stock (as the old estimates did).
I can't decide if this was deliberate or not, given there are doubts about scope of the rolling stock project.

The three descoping decisions today (line speed down to 320km/h, no ATO, same signalling as NR's ETCS) don't actually seem to amount to much saving, though it might simplify the testing stage.
Route alignment, slab track and environmental measures seem to be unchanged, although I suppose the unstarted Delta-Handsacre spec might change.
 
Last edited:
Joined
7 Aug 2025
Messages
367
Location
Portsmouth
This honestly all sounds like the government quiet quitting the project - extending the deadlines ridiculously by massively reducing year on year expenditure to fund their other promises while kicking the can down the road so the next government (which is obvious even to them to be anyone but Labour) can be blamed for increasing the year on year cost again to bring it back on track.
Trouble is if that government happens to be a certain car loving public transport hating one.. Who I am sure would love to just cancel it completely

*Can it be cancelled at this stage now?
 

WillC

Member
Joined
20 Oct 2019
Messages
140
Location
Leeds
Something doesn't add up, literally or figuratively. Monumental mismanagement, cost of bats, lack of will?! It's such a shame for a gloriously ambitious national infrastructure project that we could all have been proud of.
 

JonathanH

Veteran Member
Joined
29 May 2011
Messages
23,418
Genuinely, why are we continuing with this? Sunk cost fallacy and all that.
Yes, exactly that reason. Culling the project costed as being more expensive than continuing.
I really hope they start looking at reinstating the Birmingham to Crewe bit as another project like some rumours have suggested cause they could probably start in the next few years and open at a similar time to Euston and then at least we would have a minimal viable project.
Completely discounted as an idea until Northern Powerhouse Rail is completed.
 

Wymondham

Member
Joined
14 Apr 2023
Messages
21
Location
Coventry
The government has just published the document from HS2 Ltd setting out the speed review. Most interesting is that speed reductions are not the only thing proposed. HS2 Ltd has also said it will
Remove Automatic Train Operation (ATO) – ATO would be a global first-of-a-kind train
control and signalling system for a high-speed railway, introducing novelty that would require extensive proving. No other European railways are actively pursuing ATO for their high-speed lines and it is not needed to deliver the requirement of 10 trains per hour (tph).
Reduce the signalling system (ETCS) specification – Without the requirement for ATO it is possible to adopt a proven ETCS version (v2.1) to align with other UK and European projects, including the live delivery programmes; Transpennine Route Upgrade and East Coast Digital Project
 

Krokodil

Established Member
Joined
23 Jan 2023
Messages
6,636
Location
Wales
Genuinely, why are we continuing with this? Sunk cost fallacy and all that.
Because doing nothing is not a zero-cost option. It would cost the same to cancel what is left as it would to finish it, and what would we gain?

Crossrail went through all sorts of trouble, yet if you travel on it now it is full with the Central Line still busy but no longer creaking at the seams.

This honestly all sounds like the government quiet quitting the project
That's not the impression I got when watching the minister's statement to the house.
 

JonathanH

Veteran Member
Joined
29 May 2011
Messages
23,418
2) Is the problem that the line cannot be physically completed in at least another 10 years (and, if so, why not?), or that the Government wants to spread the costs over a longer period and is scaling back on effort?
Seems to be a bit of both. The testing needs to be undertaken on the line itself once complete, so it will be some time between construction being complete and services being started, just as with the Elizabeth Line and its multitude of testing scenarios.
 

Nicholas Lewis

Established Member
Joined
9 Aug 2019
Messages
8,058
Location
Surrey
So the Channel Tunnel, which must surely be far more complicated, took 7 years... Why is this taking so long?
Its real complication was it was a logistical nightmare only having two ways in to the coal face. HS2 by comparison could mobilise access over multiple locations to get OLE up quicker for example yet its policy is to wait to the civils have been completed.
 

mike57

Established Member
Joined
13 Mar 2015
Messages
2,408
Location
East coast of Yorkshire
Well that pretty much kills off any chance of further High Speed Rail for at least a generation.

£100b, thats roughly £1500 for every man woman and child in the UK.

10-14 years before its open

over 15 years to reach Euston.

Already 6 years into it

To be honest its a disgrace.

One could understand calls to just abandon it, even although thats probably not the right approach.
 

Floul1

Member
Joined
20 Nov 2013
Messages
12
Location
Mossley Hill
The government has just published the document from HS2 Ltd setting out the speed review. Most interesting is that speed reductions are not the only thing proposed. HS2 Ltd has also said it will
If I understand correctly (and I admit I may be mistaken), doesn't this preclude any increase in frequency beyond the 10tph without further infrastructure works on what would be (hopefully) a working railway
 

ExRes

Established Member
Joined
16 Dec 2012
Messages
8,499
Location
Back in Sussex
What a farce, if only this country actually had the money to be able to throw away on this peacock project, to think that I was told I had no idea what I was talking about on numerous occasions on this forum for being against this joke from the beginning
 

TrainTraveler

Member
Joined
3 Aug 2024
Messages
92
Location
London
I think the primary constraint is yearly spend. This has now been budgeted and if you take the current budget cost and the annual spend you get the years to completion.

There is also (and I don't think this was sufficiently allowed for earlier in the project) a capacity limit in the firms who can do the various works required.

Within that set of constraints you get the minimum viable product (Old Oak to Birmingham) so you focus on that work required to deliver that and thus start generating a return on the investment.

Once that is securely delivered and in test you can do the rest. The Euston tunnels need to be completed so that Old Oak can open.

Within the annual spend envelope (which is really a political choice) it's a matter of using that to best effect.
 

Sussex Star

Member
Joined
15 Nov 2016
Messages
14
Genuine question: how, as the minister claims, can it cost as much to cancel the project as to spend another 10 years and billions of pounds finishing it?

Is it because we'd have to spend years and billions dismantling and filling in stuff already built to make it safe?
 

perstreperous

Member
Joined
19 Sep 2022
Messages
44
Location
South London
£97bn (taking the average of high and low estimates). That is the total cost over roughly 18 years. Government spending is about £1.37tn per annum, according to the OBR.

Granted, money has been wasted, but not being hypnotised by a single number helps ...
 

Nicholas Lewis

Established Member
Joined
9 Aug 2019
Messages
8,058
Location
Surrey
What a farce, if only this country actually had the money to be able to throw away on this peacock project, to think that I was told I had no idea what I was talking about on numerous occasions on this forum for being against this joke from the beginning
The project was sensible its execution has been catastrophic and despite numerous reports ive read into the debacle none explain where all the money and time has gone. Clearly political interference hasn't helped but project management has been nothing short of disastrous despite having the best paid people on the HS2 payroll and consultants galore filling their coffers. Its a real tragedy for the UKs reputation as we've proved more than capable to deliver projects of scale through the 19th and 20th century.
 

mike57

Established Member
Joined
13 Mar 2015
Messages
2,408
Location
East coast of Yorkshire
Crossrail went through all sorts of trouble, yet if you travel on it now it is full with the Central Line still busy but no longer creaking at the seams.
I think Crossrail problems pale compared to HS2. Crossrail has pretty much been delivered as promised. The HS2 rump is basically OOC-Birmingham. Euston, maybe (I can see that being cancelled, even if the rest limps on), Manchester, probably not, Leeds, never..

My view is most passengers are still going want Euston, so will passengers suck up the change at OOC. I dont think it will overcome its fundemental flaws of the current scaled back project. I realise it was an WCML capacity upgrade, but I am sure for £100b something more useful could have been delivered, including improvements all the way to Manchester and beyond.
 

perstreperous

Member
Joined
19 Sep 2022
Messages
44
Location
South London
Genuine question: how, as the minister claims, can it cost as much to cancel the project as to spend another 10 years and billions of pounds finishing it?

Is it because we'd have to spend years and billions dismantling and filling in stuff already built to make it safe?
Presumably yes (such a geographically expansive cancellation has never happened before, although I note that Reform UK, at least of September 2025, would simply cancel HS2 and leave the semi-completed infrastructure in place like some sort of Ozymandias-like warning to anyone who might dare to build something ambitious in the future).

Also, there would be massive penalty clauses which the contractors/suppliers would claim.
 

Top