65% increase in FGW First Advance fares?

[Squaddie]

Looking ahead several months on FGW's booking engine, right out to the booking horizon, it looks like the very lowest First Advance fare between London and Swansea is now £51, up from (I think) the £31.50 it has been until very recently. Is this the case? If so, this increase has finally driven me off FGW and into my car.

 

[Roylang]

I have been looking at Paddington/Penzance and whilst the cheapest advance tickets do still seem to be available on that route, there seems to be far less of them available.

Roy

 

[bnm]

Looking ahead several months on FGW's booking engine, right out to the booking limit, it looks like the very lowest First Advance fare between London and Swansea is now £51, up from (I think) the £31.50 it has been until very recently. Is this the case? If so, this increase has finally driven me off FGW and into my car.

Random trawl:

Monday 12th September 1345 1st Advance £31.50
Sunday 18th September Most services 1st Advance £31.50

However beyond Sunday 18th September up to the booking horizon in mid November it does appear that the cheapest 1st Advance is £51.00. But then TOCs are free to do as they please with Advance Purchase tickets. Still a whacking great increase and I can't believe for a moment that cheaper price points (there are two lower tiers at £41.50 and £31.50) have already sold out on every train, every day up to 16th November.

Now the cynic in me sees a conspiracy here to price people out of 1st Class to make room for Club 55 passengers who will be filling the seats this autumn.

Note: According to FGW Customer Services there is going to be a Club 55 this Autumn, start date to be confirmed. Last year FGW Club 55 started on the third Monday in September. So if it's the same this year then that fits my conspiracy nicely!

 

[island]

there seems to be far less of them available.

Fewer, not less. [/pedant]

 

[firespire]

Now the cynic in me sees a conspiracy here to price people out of 1st Class to make room for Club 55 passengers who will be filling the seats this autumn.

Think you have hit the nail on the head. There is also the possibility that FGW will quota control the First Class Club 55 tickets like First Scotrail do and have simply moved the quota from the two lower tiers of First Class Advance fares over to the Club 55 promotion. On the First Great Western passengers internet forum it has been observed that the First Class Club 55 Tickets are already showing on the ticket selling machines for travel from the 19th September.

 

[bnm]

Think you have hit the nail on the head. There is also the possibility that FGW will quota control the First Class Club 55 tickets like First Scotrail do and have simply moved the quota from the two lower tiers of First Class Advance fares over to the Club 55 promotion. On the First Great Western passengers internet forum it has been observed that the First Class Club 55 Tickets are already showing on the ticket selling machines for travel from the 19th September.

It would appear thus. I've now checked a dozen or so flows in FGW land and none are offering 1st Advances on any day at the lower 2 or 3 tiers from Sept 19th up to the booking horizon.

So it looks almost certain that the seats are being allocated to a Club 55 quota. Nice for the oldies I suppose. Not so good for the rest of us.

Oh, and Squaddie. Nice to see a banker watching the pennies! Sorry that you are going to have to fork out extra for trips to Swansea in the coming months, or take the car. Either that or slum it in Standard.

 

[Squaddie]

Oh, and Squaddie. Nice to see a banker watching the pennies! Sorry that you are going to have to fork out extra for trips to Swansea in the coming months, or take the car. Either that or slum it in Standard.

I may work for a bank, but I wouldn't consider myself a banker! I'm in IT.

There's no way I'm paying £102 return for Advance tickets, and I wouldn't travel in FGW Standard if they paid me to do so, so they've lost a customer unless those fares come back down to a reasonable level.

 

[bnm]

I'm sure the lower tiers will be available again once the Club 55 promotion ends.

As for the bit about being a banker, just going by your profile.

 

[firespire]

I've seen people post on the forum about the Groupon deals for cheap first/standard off peak returns on First Great Western, maybe worth keeping an eye out for them.
Recent August one-
http://www.groupon.co.uk/deals/groupon-getaways/First-Great-Western/681426
July one -
http://www.groupon.co.uk/deals/london-special/first-great-western/381754

 

[Flamingo]

It might be to get rid of the (IMHO ridiculous) situation where some First Class Advance tickets are significantly lower than the cheapest walk-up STD class ticket...

(retires to bunker, awaits incoming)

 

[bnm]

It might be to get rid of the (IMHO ridiculous) situation where some First Class Advance tickets are significantly lower than the cheapest walk-up STD class ticket...

Apples and pears. Not really comparable.

 

[OwlMan]

Now the cynic in me sees a conspiracy here to price people out of 1st Class to make room for Club 55 passengers who will be filling the seats this autumn.

Probably, the quotas for advanced tickets will vary according to expected demand (e.g. a football match, rugby international or as you say club 55) if FGW think there will be greater demand for this period they will reduce number of advanced tickets available and not issue them for the lower fares.
This is the way that advanced tickets have always worked.
.

 

[bb21]

Probably, the quotas for advanced tickets will vary according to expected demand (e.g. a football match, rugby international or as you say club 55) if FGW think there will be greater demand for this period they will reduce number of advanced tickets available and not issue them for the lower fares.
This is the way that advanced tickets have always worked.
.

True, but makes FGW appear very underhanded if the aforementioned is true with Club 55.

If they have removed availability completely for the lowest two tiers of Advance fares then does it not amount to an official fare change?

 

[bnm]

If they have removed availability completely for the lowest two tiers of Advance fares then does it not amount to an official fare change?

Aren't TOCs free to tinker with AP fares as they see fit though? Plus don't TOCs have flexibility to introduce/withdraw fares (excepting regulated ones) for promotional periods and to manage demand?

And let me be clear. I've only made an educated guess for the removal of the lower tiers of 1st Class Advance to free up seats for a Club 55 quota. I could be entirely wrong. But I see no other logical explanation. It would be highly unlikely that FGW have just decided to hike 1st Class Advances across their network by removing the lowest priced tickets. That would not be revenue positive in the long term. Less people would trade up from Standard for a start. It would also garner much negative publicity. Especially as its widely known that regulated fares are rising by an average 8% (with some as much as 13%) in January. It's most likely than unregulated fares will see similar rises to keep the differences between price points balanced.

No. I see no other reason other than to accommodate a 1st Class Club 55 quota. Who knows, FGW might still be tinkering with the yield management. That said, it'd be a first (no pun intended!) if they released lower priced AP tickets after uploading more expensive ones.

 

[DaveNewcastle]

If they have removed availability completely for the lowest two tiers of Advance fares then does it not amount to an official fare change?

That is not my understanding.
Though I can quite clearly see why you might reasonably think so!

Aren't TOCs free to tinker with AP fares as they see fit though? Plus don't TOCs have flexibility to introduce/withdraw fares (excepting regulated ones) for promotional periods and to manage demand?

That is my understanding.
The manipulation of Advance prices, quotas, and seats is at the heart of manageing and high frequency - long distance TOC. In fact, I'm slightly surprised that they don't do more to manipulate the demand and spread passengers over their available capacity than they do!

Previous rounds of Club 55 (over several TOCs) have been very popular. Unfortunately, they not only suceeded well in generating more passenger journeys, but they failed miserably in distributing those additional passengers across the most available capacity. Its not a bad concept, but it could be improved : for the benefit of passengers as well as the TOCs.

 

[Flamingo]

I'm not sure who to ask, but I'll see if I can pick up anything on this.

 

[bnm]

I'm not sure who to ask, but I'll see if I can pick up anything on this.

Fares Implementation Manager at Swindon would be my guess....

 

[Flamingo]

Fares Implementation Manager at Swindon would be my guess....

It depends on my running into them (I'm not sure who they are), and having the opportunity to ask...

 

[WillPS]

It might be to get rid of the (IMHO ridiculous) situation where some First Class Advance tickets are significantly lower than the cheapest walk-up STD class ticket...

(retires to bunker, awaits incoming)

The alternative is to have 1-4 empty carriages running around off-peak. Generally speaking, FC Advances are more expensive than SC Advances.