Our new ticketing site is now live! Using either this or the original site (both powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!
Labour are highly unlikely to get near government after the next election for a long time, if the party survives at all.
These are the last three years they are likely to get for the forseable future.
Being able to win a general election is less important than actually having a coherent programme to use the last shot at government the party will get.
Burnhams suggestions on electoral reform etc are important in that regard. All Starmer offers is scandal-laden tepid status quo for three years, then electoral oblivion.
As someone who has campaigned for electoral reform as part of a grassroots campaign group, the last two years of UK politics have done more to promote the need for changing the voting system than any of the campaigning our group could ever pull off, similar to how Trump and Netanyahu's war in Iran has done more to promote ending reliance on oil than anything JSO or any other climate protest group could have done.
Labour are highly unlikely to get near government after the next election for a long time, if the party survives at all.
These are the last three years they are likely to get for the forseable future.
Being able to win a general election is less important than actually having a coherent programme to use the last shot at government the party will get.
Burnhams suggestions on electoral reform etc are important in that regard. All Starmer offers is scandal-laden tepid status quo for three years, then electoral oblivion.
It is impossible to predict the result of the next general election. The alternatives to the Labour Party are really not inspiring. Reform UK and the Green Party did well in the local elections but neither offer serious realistic policies for Government.
Voters use mid-term elections to protest against the Government but it is a different matter in a general election when they have to choose the next Government. Mid-term local election results have previously proved to be an unreliable indicator of the result of the following general election.
Student politics is just a bizarre thing. Some people in NUS would rather debate Israel-Palestine than look at things like unconscious bias in marking coursework with names on. The whole organisation just acts in a frankly strange way with irrelevant focus a lot of the time. You can see why 9 students' unions have disaffiliated from NUS in 2026 alone.
I didn't rate Streeting as president of NUS. I wouldn't rate him as Labour Party leader or Prime Minister. I think he'd be more charismatic than Starmer, just a smidge, but otherwise seen as another PR-style PM without a clear passion and direction.
I think that one of the issues with the NUS is that being in a leadership position in it has became regarded as a way into politics. So it has became less about advocating for members, and more about setting our your stall as a potential politician.
It is impossible to predict the result of the next general election. The alternatives to the Labour Party are really not inspiring. Reform UK and the Green Party did well in the local elections but neither offer serious realistic policies for Government.
Voters use mid-term elections to protest against the Government but it is a different matter in a general election when they have to choose the next Government. Mid-term local election results have previously proved to be an unreliable indicator of the result of the following general election.
It is extraordinarily rare for a government to recover from this polling position to win the next election. Outside the fixed term parliament era it is also very rare for a government to win the election if it waits five years - so time for a turnaround is much shorter than it might appear.
Especially with a leader that is polling as badly as Starmer is now.
The election is not over until the votes are counted, but it is extremely unlikely that Labour wins from here.
EDIT:
And whilst governments do tend to lose ground in mid-term elections, what happened earlier this month was an annihilation. The party is disintegrating.
EDIT #2:
To show how drastic polling is, even the Conservatives in the 1992-1997 session only had one or two polls below 20%.
I really hope that someone in the Manchester area falls on their sword, Burnham stands in the subsequent by-election and loses to Reform.
I have no time for Reform, but I almost have less time for these stupid Labour games. Burnham gave up a seat in Westminster and ran back to Manchester to be a bigger fish in a smaller pond, but now he’s bored and wants to come back. Tough!
It's a tough one, currently Labour is projected to win 18.7% of a General election with just 61 seats.
Burnham might be more popular than that percentage, but if Labour are playing safe, and want to ensure Burnham isn't outvoted, there is a fairly short list of potential constituencies. No serious career Labour politician is going to be enthusiastic about handing over their safe seat.
If start trying to parachute him into a seat in London, or say Plymouth, he might not been seen so enthusiastically as he is in Manchester area.
It is extraordinarily rare for a government to recover from this polling position to win the next election. Outside the fixed term parliament era it is also very rare for a government to win the election if it waits five years - so time for a turnaround is much shorter than it might appear.
Especially with a leader that is polling as badly as Starmer is now.
The election is not over until the votes are counted, but it is extremely unlikely that Labour wins from here.
EDIT:
And whilst governments do tend to lose ground in mid-term elections, what happened earlier this month was an annihilation. The party is disintegrating.
EDIT #2:
To show how drastic polling is, even the Conservatives in the 1992-1997 session only had one or two polls below 20%.
They are disintegrating, but unlike in the 90s, there is no clear alternative who can command all the anti-incumbent vote. The official opposition party also collapsed in the local elections, going against historical precedent for them to make local election gains (they're lucky the Labour drubbing took all the headlines). Even Reform UK are now polling below 30% in most polls, and in the local elections got around 25% across all the council seats up for election. There's also the matter that Reform UK are a one man band and Farage is an alcoholic chain smoker in his 60s; if he gives up health wise or decides to quit anyway, that party has no alternative leader with the same gravitas.
On the left, Polanski is now in hot water over his response to Golders Green and council tax troubles, contributing to falling approval ratings. The Lib Dems are the most stable and competent bloc, but the media don't like reporting on them (presumably competent is too boring for them) and the party's own communication ability is as dire as Labours.
Our focusing on specific people/parties is stopping us seeing what's really going on: this is less a collapse of Labour and more a collapse of the entire UK political system.
It is extraordinarily rare for a government to recover from this polling position to win the next election. Outside the fixed term parliament era it is also very rare for a government to win the election if it waits five years - so time for a turnaround is much shorter than it might appear.
Especially with a leader that is polling as badly as Starmer is now.
The election is not over until the votes are counted, but it is extremely unlikely that Labour wins from here.
EDIT:
And whilst governments do tend to lose ground in mid-term elections, what happened earlier this month was an annihilation. The party is disintegrating.
Although the other factor is that there's 5 parties which all got over 10%, even getting 4 with over 10% has only happened twice in the last 100 years (2015 and 2024).
As such, there's a potential for a significant margin of error when trying to apply past voting records to what may happen at the next election.
As I've said previously, the fact that Scotland doesn't appear to be fertile ground for Reform may hinder them in getting a majority.
In fact, even with just shy of 20% of the vote they managed 13% of seats and all of those were from the regional list seats and not from FPTP (Constituency Seats).
Likewise, by being less regional than Labour and the Tories (it's easy enough to find seats where Labour or the Tories get a similar number of votes as the Monsters Raving Looney Party) and so a national vote share poll isn't going to always going to pick this up.
It's a tough one, currently Labour is projected to win 18.7% of a General election with just 61 seats.
Burnham might be more popular than that percentage, but if Labour are playing safe, and want to ensure Burnham isn't outvoted, there is a fairly short list of potential constituencies. No serious career Labour politician is going to be enthusiastic about handing over their safe seat.
If start trying to parachute him into a seat in London, or say Plymouth, he might not been seen so enthusiastically as he is in Manchester area.
I think Burnham would struggle more than people think. I have previously met him and I have nothing against him personally.
However I think people are getting a bit carried away. Let's face it we have to have the following happen which itself is a big ask.
A constituency becomes vacant > the Labour NEC approves for him to stand > the local party then chooses him as the candidate > he wins the by-election > he successfully calls for a leadership challenge > he gets enough nominations to stand in a leadership election > he wins said leadership election.
Also let's not forget he ran for the Labour leadership twice back in 2010 when he came 4th and in 2015 when he came a distant 3rd to Jeremy Corbyn. Sure he might win this time but given his record it's not guaranteed.
Also his record will come up which isn't brilliant, he served in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet and didn't resign when the mass resignations happened after the Brexit vote. He only chose to leave the shadow cabinet to concentrate on his run to be Mayor of Manchester. That would be used against him.
Is it possible that he could become the next Prime Minister? Yes but realistically it's a very big ask and I think people are getting a bit carried away by him.
I think Burnham would struggle more than people think. I have previously met him and I have nothing against him personally.
However I think people are getting a bit carried away. Let's face it we have to have the following happen which itself is a big ask.
A constituency becomes vacant > the Labour NEC approves for him to stand > the local party then chooses him as the candidate > he wins the by-election > he successfully calls for a leadership challenge > he gets enough nominations to stand in a leadership election > he wins said leadership election
The NEC elections are only a few months away, the pro Starmer slate that runs it now is unlikely to be replaced with another pro Starmer slate.
And if its a seat in the North West he will almost certainly win, especially if it is in Manchester.
And I don't think there is any credible opponent that could beat Burnham in a leadership election. That's why Starmer has been so desperate to keep him out of parliament, although I don't think he believed that buy blocking Burnham he was throwing the Gorton byelection. Remember all the labour sources that were briefing that they were going to win right up until the result was announced? The idea that a Manchester seat like Gorton (which I live near) would go against them was unthinkable to them, although everyone in the area knew it was going to happen.
Also let's not forget he ran for the Labour leadership twice back in 2010 when he came 4th and in 2015 when he came a distant 3rd to Jeremy Corbyn. Sure he might win this time but given his record it's not guaranteed.
They are disintegrating, but unlike in the 90s, there is no clear alternative who can command all the anti-incumbent vote. The official opposition party also collapsed in the local elections, going against historical precedent for them to make local election gains (they're lucky the Labour drubbing took all the headlines). Even Reform UK are now polling below 30% in most polls, and in the local elections got around 25% across all the council seats up for election.
The official opposition hasn't had that few seats in a very long time, that's 49 less than the conservatives had in 1997. I believe you have to go all the way back to 1931 when Labour won 52 seats, during the last major party realignment in British politics, because the liberals had split multiple ways and a National Government was in power.
Whilst the Conservatives are notionally the official opposition, they aren't that far ahead of the Lib Dems which made substantial gains.
25% when your opponents are polling 10-15% each will still deliver a giant win.
There's also the matter that Reform UK are a one man band and Farage is an alcoholic chain smoker in his 60s; if he gives up health wise or decides to quit anyway, that party has no alternative leader with the same gravitas.
I don't think it's likely that he will have to give up politics with only three years (at most) before an election.
Maybe he wouldn't stick around a full parliament, but its not going to stop him achieving the crowning glory of his career (winning the election, regardless of what comes after).
And if Labour really is reduced to fewer seats than the Lib Dems, I don't think the party will ever truly recover.
Our focusing on specific people/parties is stopping us seeing what's really going on: this is less a collapse of Labour and more a collapse of the entire UK political system.
It's a massive realignment of the current system, but that doesn't increase the likelihood that Labour will suddenly reassert itself and allow Starmer or chums to continue in government.
He was refused permission to stand before essentially to save Starmer’s skin. If Starmer is removed anyway now then that motive is no longer there.
In an election without Burnham, the candidates are likely to be Streeting, Rayner and Milliband. Streeting won’t win and the latter two will probably be too left-wing for the general public. Labour’s NEC would be unwise to refuse him permission to stand. Then again, if you are trying to rely on the self-preservation instinct of the Labour Party…
Surely the major reason he was refused permission was because it would mean a new election for a Mayor of Manchester with a high risk of Labour losing?
Surely the major reason he was refused permission was because it would mean a new election for a Mayor of Manchester with a high risk of Labour losing?
If a well run Manchester Mayor (Labour) was to pass to Reform and they messed it up, then it could be a good example as to why they shouldn't become the next government.
Even if that had zero impact within Manchester, it's a large enough place that many swing seats could have enough of a shift away from Reform (even if that's Tory voting Labour or Lib Dem voting Green or whatever tactical voting was needed) to limit them so their national 30% vote share resulted in a coalition government, and Parliament with very limited numbers of Reform MP's.
That's assuming that it stays as FPTP and the 16-18 vote doesn't change the vote share.
Next general election, I can see no party having enough seats to form an administration, Labour most likely will be the largest party, but short of a majority, with Reform, Lib Dems and Conservatives all on roughly the same seats, The opposition will be a collection of Reform, and Conservatives, but they won't be happy about it, Labour to form a government will have to rely on Greens and Lib dems, to support them,
It will be a very turbulent time, with a lot of attempts to call votes of no confidence etc, with very slim majorities, that could change the outcome, especially if Reform fracture, and the Conservatives start to move back into the centre ground, abandoning its more hawkish right, when the clashes start,
Next general election, I can see no party having enough seats to form an administration, Labour most likely will be the largest party, but short of a majority, with Reform, Lib Dems and Conservatives all on roughly the same seats, The opposition will be a collection of Reform, and Conservatives, but they won't be happy about it, Labour to form a government will have to rely on Greens and Lib dems, to support them
There is a theory regarding country split into 7 tribes, rather than just left or right. It splits left-right onto 3 axis, Economic, Cultural and Liberty. So could be right leaning on 2 of them but left leaning on third etc.
Probably best to look at this article, and it describes the 7 groups, and these basically reflect the parties
It will be a very turbulent time, with a lot of attempts to call votes of no confidence etc, with very slim majorities, that could change the outcome, especially if Reform fracture, and the Conservatives start to move back into the centre ground, abandoning its more hawkish right, when the clashes start,
Yes, probably going to get one of those infighting, messy, periods, where nothing really gets done, everything stagnates and what they do attempt gets watered down by those wanting to go in different direction.
Sadly the Labour Party seems to have run out of any steam, to actually get anything meaningful done. What they have done has direct consequences, eg renters rights has basically discouraged being a landlord, when they should have just attacked rogue landlords, so number of properties for rent might shrink. Similarly they levied struggling business pushing up their cost, so some have collapsed rather than encouraged more jobs
The source of the comment about Keir Starmer by Nigel Farage. Was on the BBC, and is probably now buried amongst all the other election coverage on the Iplayer. It was made on the Friday morning after.
Yes, probably going to get one of those infighting, messy, periods, where nothing really gets done, everything stagnates and what they do attempt gets watered down by those wanting to go in different direction.
Angela Rayner, seen as a potential challenger to PM Keir Starmer, says she had been "exonerated" of the accusation she had "deliberately sought to avoid tax".
www.bbc.co.uk
Former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner says she has been cleared by HMRC of wrongdoing over her tax affairs.
She stood down in September 2025 after admitting she underpaid stamp duty on a flat in Hove.
In a statement on Thursday morning, the MP for Ashton-under-Lyne says she "welcomes" the conclusions from HMRC "which has cleared me of any wrongdoing," and says she has been exonerated "of the accusation that I deliberately sought to avoid tax".
She goes on: “When purchasing a home of my own with a mortgage, I did not own any other property and had no personal financial interest in the court-instructed trust set up to manage my son’s financial award. I was advised by experts that I should pay stamp duty at the standard rate.
“I set out to pay the correct amount of tax. I took reasonable care and acted in good faith, based on the expert advice I received, and HMRC has accepted this."
She adds that she "wanted to ensure that I paid every penny that I owed, and have done so".
Our focusing on specific people/parties is stopping us seeing what's really going on: this is less a collapse of Labour and more a collapse of the entire UK political system.
The voting system simply isn't fit for purpose anymore.
I don't even think Labour have particularly collapsed. They got their huge majority on barely a third of the vote. Even on day one of his leadership, two thirds of people who went out to vote didn't want Labour and didn't want Starmer. Fewer people (both in percentage and absolute terms) voted for Starmer's Labour than voted for Corbyn's Labour.
This is the real weakness with FPTP, and always has been. Parties with a strong but more localised support will always do worse than parties with a weak but more widespread support. Corbyn proved that: he piled up the votes in places that were always going to vote for him, but that isn't how you win elections. You win elections by having a support which is a mile wide and an inch deep. But if your support is a mile wide and an inch deep, it doesn't take much to lose it all. Boris Johnson had the same issue because his support was also a mile wide and an inch deep.
I really wouldn't want to predict a General Election now. But, having said that, I suspect it will go the same way as many of the local council elections have done this month: Reform will have the largest number of seats and will have "won" the election, but they will be some way short of a majority. The real question then will be whether Reform will be able to get enough support from the Conservatives and the DUP to form a Government, or whether Labour/SNP/Green/LibDem/SDLP will get just enough seats to block them.
Either way, it's going to be messy. I can't see the Tories lasting long as a minority partner in government, their egos will get in the way. And if we have a situation where Reform are the biggest party but aren't the Government then there really will be a end-of-days constitutional crisis. Maybe we'll see what happened in Ireland, where the two main parties Fine Gael and Fianna Fail united just to prevent Sinn Fein- the largest party- from taking government.
Either way, it's going to be messy. I can't see the Tories lasting long as a minority partner in government, their egos will get in the way. And if we have a situation where Reform are the biggest party but aren't the Government then there really will be a end-of-days constitutional crisis. Maybe we'll see what happened in Ireland, where the two main parties Fine Gael and Fianna Fail united just to prevent Sinn Fein- the largest party- from taking government.
A coalition of the Left (Labour, Lib Dem and Green) might be worth looking at, potentially even to the extent of only fielding one Left candidate in each constituency, but one sad aspect of the Left is that they often have little consensus between them to lead to such a thing.
But if 5 parties are to be the norm, PR is the only way forward.
Streeting says he has lost confidence in Sir Keir Starmer and calls for a debate about "what comes next".
www.bbc.co.uk
Wes Streeting has resigned as health secretary saying he has lost confidence in Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer's leadership, deepening the political crisis engulfing the Labour government.
In his resignation letter, Streeting said it was clear Sir Keir would not lead Labour into the next general election, criticising his government's "drift" and lack of "vision".
Streeting said Labour MPs and unions would want a "debate about what comes next" but did not say he was formally launching a challenge to Sir Keir's leadership.
It comes after days of intense speculation that Streeting was planning a bid to replace Sir Keir as Labour leader, with allies saying he would do so as soon as Thursday.
It seems like he was waiting for someone else to resign first. If he had gone two or three days ago he’d have had momentum. Now he looks like a fool. What a line of work to be in!
It seems like he was waiting for someone else to resign first. If he had gone two or three days ago he’d have had momentum. Now he looks like a fool. What a line of work to be in!
The NEC elections are only a few months away, the pro Starmer slate that runs it now is unlikely to be replaced with another pro Starmer slate.
And if its a seat in the North West he will almost certainly win, especially if it is in Manchester.
And I don't think there is any credible opponent that could beat Burnham in a leadership election. That's why Starmer has been so desperate to keep him out of parliament, although I don't think he believed that buy blocking Burnham he was throwing the Gorton byelection. Remember all the labour sources that were briefing that they were going to win right up until the result was announced? The idea that a Manchester seat like Gorton (which I live near) would go against them was unthinkable to them, although everyone in the area knew it was going to happen.
Burnham came second to Jeremy Corbyn, not third. Yvette Cooper was third and Liz Kendal was in a very distant fourth.
I wouldn't be so sure that he would win a by-election to be honest. Labour did relatively poorly in Greater Manchester at the local election. Also there would likely be suggestions that he isn't standing because he wants to represent the local area rather he is only standing so that he could become Prime Minister. The other parties would use that against him in any by-election. Politics is a very cruel world.
You are right he did come 2nd in 2025 I stand corrected.
Which were totally overshadowed by all the discussion anyway. All the last 48 hours has done is show us all how unsuitable Streeting is to be Prime Minister. But I am sure he knows that which is why he has stopped short of announcing a challenge at this time.
I was suggesting runoffs because I think that is better than ranked-choice voting. I feel that people don’t put much thought into ranked-choice voting and it can lead to flukes. A runoff presents two candidates and forces a choice.
I think that a runoff does have downsides though. We often see with France that the biggest voting block is left-wing, but as they are more fractured they are presented with the choice of Macron or Le Pen, two right wing parties, despite the right being generally smaller.
I think that a runoff does have downsides though. We often see with France that the biggest voting block is left-wing, but as they are more fractured they are presented with the choice of Macron or Le Pen, two right wing parties, despite the right being generally smaller.
If left-wing voters want to split their votes umpteen ways, that is their prerogative, and their problem. What we can say with certainty is that a majority of French voters voted for Macron. Tha hasn’t been true of a British government in nearly a hundred years.
In case you have forgotten, you were just advocating that we should adopt the same system here in the UK. So it would be our problem too, and I'd rather not have a system with such a clearly demonstrated systematic flaw.
What we can say with certainty is that a majority of French voters voted for Macron. Tha hasn’t been true of a British government in nearly a hundred years.
Because in the second round, options on who to vote for were artificially restricted by their electoral system. 99.63% of voters in North Korea voted for Kim Jong-un, that doesn't mean I'd suggest that we adopt their electoral practices.
We are aware of an issue with emails from the Forum to Microsoft-based email accounts (hotmail/outlook/live.com email addresses). This is being looked into currently, thanks for your patience meanwhile.
www.bbc.co.uk
