Times article on WCML timetable/capacity

[MontyP]

I saw this article in the Times today, which implies that there is spare capacity on the WCML which should be used for more services (the author seems to be supporting open access applications).

Ghost trains show rail timetable is run on wrong lines

There’s space to offer more choice to passengers on a key route, yet the network holds on to slots for services that do not operate

www.thetimes.com

It quotes some figures - the one that grabbed my attention was that WCML "train mileage" is down 8.6% vs 2019 pre-Covid. I find this difficult to believe, the basic timetable is broadly the same but with extra services e.g. Liverpool, plus Lumo to come. So is there any merit in the article or is it misinformed cheerleading for open access operators?

 

[jp4712]

Can’t read it as it’s behind a paywall. Does it parrot the Andrew Gilligan claims that HS2 should be scrapped because there are empty trains on the WCML? (At 0600 in the morning and 2200 at night)

 

[MontyP]

Can’t read it as it’s behind a paywall. Does it parrot the Andrew Gilligan claims that HS2 should be scrapped because there are empty trains on the WCML? (At 0600 in the morning and 2200 at night)

Ah sorry, didn't realise about the pay wall. Not sure I am allowed to cut and paste the text from the article. The gist of it is around "ghost slots", in particular slots for coal and mail trains that no longer run but still have slots reserved in the timetable due to them being as for "strategic capacity".

 

[DarloRich]

due to them being as for "strategic capacity"

that is the key statement.

 

[jfollows]

Ah sorry, didn't realise about the pay wall. Not sure I am allowed to cut and paste the text from the article. The gist of it is around "ghost slots", in particular slots for coal and mail trains that no longer run but still have slots reserved in the timetable due to them being as for "strategic capacity".

You are allowed to cut & paste from the article, just don’t include photographs.

 

[The Planner]

Ah sorry, didn't realise about the pay wall. Not sure I am allowed to cut and paste the text from the article. The gist of it is around "ghost slots", in particular slots for coal and mail trains that no longer run but still have slots reserved in the timetable due to them being as for "strategic capacity".

There have been strategic QJ paths on most routes for time immemorial, this isn't new and its the right thing to do. The WCML fast lines are effectively full. Its all a bit disingenuous.

 

[zwk500]

The Author seems to have quite a repertoire of writing about the railway, but nowhere do his bios mention actually working on the railway.

Tony Lodge – New Century Media

newcenturymedia.co.uk

Tony has operated across British and international politics for over twenty years. He has worked with Cabinet Ministers, Backbench MPs, Chairs of Parliamentary Select Committees and advised extensively on policy, parliamentary procedures, and media relations for a wide range of UK and international clients.

He has taken an active part in developing political campaigns and new policies with numerous published contributions in areas including transport, energy, cleantech, natural resources, health, and infrastructure strategy. Tony has devised and implemented successful election campaigns in Britain and overseas as well as grassroots campaigns in the UK which have effectively changed laws and policies.

Before joining New Century Tony worked for senior MPs at the House of Commons and prominent policy ‘think tanks’.

Tony Lodge - The Centre for Policy Studies

Tony Lodge is a Research Fellow at the Centre for Policy Studies. He has written and commented widely on rail policy and is author of several CPS papers. He delivered the Institute of Directors Beesley Lecture on ‘Promoting railway competition’ and has appeared before the Commons Transport...

cps.org.uk

Tony Lodge is a Research Fellow at the Centre for Policy Studies.

He has written and commented widely on rail policy and is author of The Right Track – Delivering the Vision for HS2 (2010), Rail’s Second Chance – putting competition back on track (2013), Get Rail Competition Back on Track (2016) and Changing Track – How to rescue the railways after the pandemic (2022).

He delivered the Institute of Directors Beesley Lecture on ‘Promoting railway competition’ and has appeared before the Commons Transport Select Committee and the Competition and Markets Authority.

 

[Starmill]

There have been strategic QJ paths on most routes for time immemorial, this isn't new and its the right thing to do. The WCML fast lines are effectively full. Its all a bit disingenuous.

Indeed so. And QJs somewhere or other will be used every day for STP schedules / by a VST planner or signaller as a clever way to fit something in which otherwise wouldn't work. Same for some of the charter paths. I've even seen an LTP schedule (non-passenger) go on top of a QJ if it's a late notice bid and runs for only part of the timetable. I don't know if that's "correct" under the Network Code though.

I saw this article in the Times today, which implies that there is spare capacity on the WCML which should be used for more services (the author seems to be supporting open access applications).

Ghost trains show rail timetable is run on wrong lines

There’s space to offer more choice to passengers on a key route, yet the network holds on to slots for services that do not operate

www.thetimes.com

It quotes some figures - the one that grabbed my attention was that WCML "train mileage" is down 8.6% vs 2019 pre-Covid. I find this difficult to believe, the basic timetable is broadly the same but with extra services e.g. Liverpool, plus Lumo to come. So is there any merit in the article or is it misinformed cheerleading for open access operators?

Here is the most relevant part, quoted as a selection and attributed to Tony Lodge writing for The Times, to avoid infringing on their intellectual property:

The scale of the problem is striking. There are hundreds of fewer trains running compared with 2019, a 4.2 per cent reduction in train miles, or 8.6 per cent on the WCML. Yet the number of planned train miles in the timetable has increased following network upgrades. This means the number of services expected to operate each day is well below the total in the timetable — a significant opportunity to run more services for passengers who want more choice.

These unused slots result from a growing number of services designated “strategic capacity”, usually freight trains. Last summer’s timetable included 413 such slots, consuming 28,853 train miles. Coal and mail trains no longer run but some of their slots are still in the timetable. Why?

Not only is it disingenuous to claim that key lines are full, but it means taxpayers are hardly getting the best value for money following £24 billion worth of network enhancements. Holding track capacity back makes no sense when the challenge to grow the economy is paramount. Shouldn’t we be using all the train capacity we have to run the best possible services in the national interest?

 

[zwk500]

Here is the most relevant part, quoted as a selection and attributed to Tony Lodge writing for The Times, to avoid infringing on their intellectual property:

That quote demonstrates quite neatly the issue of aggregating figures and then applying them (wrongly) to a specific problem area.

 

[Starmill]

The Author seems to have quite a repertoire of writing about the railway, but nowhere do his bios mention actually working on the railway.

Tony Lodge – New Century Media

newcenturymedia.co.uk

Tony Lodge - The Centre for Policy Studies

Tony Lodge is a Research Fellow at the Centre for Policy Studies. He has written and commented widely on rail policy and is author of several CPS papers. He delivered the Institute of Directors Beesley Lecture on ‘Promoting railway competition’ and has appeared before the Commons Transport...

cps.org.uk

Indeed so. I note he doesn't mention the process by which rarely used rights are subject to review! Or acknowledge that a large number of coal and mail ones were all culled just a few years ago.

If you never use your rights at all, or you use them only very infrequently and don't have compelling evidence as to why that is, you will eventually lose them.

I find this difficult to believe, the basic timetable is broadly the same but with extra services e.g. Liverpool, plus Lumo to come.

It depends on where you look. Sheffield - Gainsborough Central for example used to run hourly six days a week. Now it's one a day five days a week. Except this Saturday only as a special one-off.

 

[DarloRich]

The Centre For Policy studies was founded by Keith Joseph and Margaret Thatcher to challenge the post war Keynesian consensus. It is closely linked to but independent from the Tory party. The identity of thier funders is not clear and as a think tank they are influential on right wing politics. They stand for low tax, small state, free market tory stuff.

What's the game here?

 

[MontyP]

Indeed so. I note he doesn't mention the process by which rarely used rights are subject to review! Or acknowledge that a large number of coal and mail ones were all culled just a few years ago.

If you never use your rights at all, or you use them only very infrequently and don't have compelling evidence as to why that is, you will eventually lose them.


It depends on where you look. Sheffield - Gainsborough Central for example used to run hourly six days a week. Now it's one a day five days a week. Except this Saturday only as a special one-off.

I meant on the WCML which is what he is referring to. I can't see how he thinks there are hundreds of trains fewer running on the WCML than in 2019. Although I guess one fewer per day is hundreds fewer in a whole year!

 

[Acathater]

this link should bypass the paywall

RemovePaywall | Free online paywall remover

Remove Paywall, free online paywall remover. Get access to articles without having to pay or login. Works on Bloomberg and hundreds more.

www.removepaywall.com

 

[Starmill]

I meant on the WCML which is what he is referring to. I can't see how he thinks there are hundreds of trains fewer running on the WCML than in 2019. Although I guess one fewer per day is hundreds fewer in a whole year!

Yes, sorry. It looks like he's just using national statistics and assuming it's the same everywhere.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Hard right think tank says that there should be more Open Access operators. They will break the terrible terrible hegemony of the state operator, or something.

In other news, bears are Catholic and the Pope poos in the woods.

 

[Class 170101]

Even if the slots could be put back (and they can't) they would then complain about poor performance on the WCML. What would people like him suggest then?

 

[InTheEastMids]

The Centre For Policy studies was founded by Keith Joseph and Margaret Thatcher to challenge the post war Keynesian consensus. It is closely linked to but independent from the Tory party. The identity of thier funders is not clear and as a think tank they are influential on right wing politics. They stand for low tax, small state, free market tory stuff.

Hard right think tank says

Agree, any organisation based at 55 or 57 Tufton Street (like this one, Civitas, Migration Watch, GWPF, Taxpayers Alliance, Vote Leave etc.) will generally be starting these reports with "what will my shadowy, rich paymasters want me to write?" To be fair all think tanks are somewhat like this so it's always good to find out who pays their salaries.
In this case, paymasters are thought to include oil companies, tech billionaires, British businessmen that would rather live overseas than pay tax here. They are often closely linked to the sorts of politicians that get £5m gifts from their mates shortly before buying a house in cash and then deciding to stand in a general election.

The number of anodyne-sounding organisations helps what is in fact a minor, but well-funded far-right effort look like a number of different small expert organisations independently arriving at similar conclusions (which carries more weight in the media).

What's the game here?

I think this is what we might describe as enabling works. The short-term aim is to sow confusion in the general public who just have more important things on their mind than transport policy, but who can be persuaded that we do not need rail investment as there is clearly spare capacity on the existing network and so <project> is a waste of money.

Longer term, that veneer of expert, impartial analysis becomes a reference that politicians cite to stop a scheme progressing. Journos don't have time/can't be bothered to check the references and find out whether they are credible or not. Plus they have to report them anyway to make sure it looks like it was balanced.

Given the proximity to the Kings Speech, I think this is preparing the ground for an anti-NPR effort, and perhaps they sense a Birmingham-Manchester revival is coming down the pipe that needs whacking.

 

[leightonbd]

Andy Burnham’s pitch: ‘Make me an MP and when I become PM, HS2 will be going to Manchester before you can say Bobby Charlton’

 

[BrianW]

Andy Burnham’s pitch: ‘Make me an MP and when I become PM, HS2 will be going to Manchester before you can say Bobby Charlton’

Denis Law , the King, may be a better choice- IIRC he played for both United AND City .. and Huddersfield!

 

[158756]

I saw this article in the Times today, which implies that there is spare capacity on the WCML which should be used for more services (the author seems to be supporting open access applications).

Ghost trains show rail timetable is run on wrong lines

There’s space to offer more choice to passengers on a key route, yet the network holds on to slots for services that do not operate

www.thetimes.com

It quotes some figures - the one that grabbed my attention was that WCML "train mileage" is down 8.6% vs 2019 pre-Covid. I find this difficult to believe, the basic timetable is broadly the same but with extra services e.g. Liverpool, plus Lumo to come. So is there any merit in the article or is it misinformed cheerleading for open access operators?

Not sure exactly where the 8.6% figure comes from, but the latest statistics from the ORR show Avanti's "passenger train kilometres" are still below pre-Covid. The latest full year (to March 2025) was down 15% from 2018-19. The quarterly statistics show an improvement later in 2025, but July-September was still 7% down from the equivalent period in 2019, and October-December 11% down (effect of engineering works/disruption/weather?).

The statistics for "passenger vehicle kilometres" are similar, so it's not just an artefact of the fleet changes since 2019. (This is very noticeable on LNER - train km are slightly up, but vehicle kms are significantly down (before the December 2025 timetable change))

 

[AndrewE]

The Author seems to have quite a repertoire of writing about the railway, but nowhere do his bios mention actually working on the railway.

which reminds me of the brother-in-law of a friend in the Thatcher era who, with no professional educational knowledge whatsoever apart from his military family and public school upbringing - not even a teaching qualification, let alone research - at quite a young age became a senior advisor in the Education Department "advising" on policy. It enraged me because it was based on nothing more than his prejudices and dogma.

Knowledge of child development? Any knowledge of mental processes and how kids actually learn? Any deeper thoughts about social cohesion and awareness of civic duty? None whatsoever. Nowadays the right wingers would say "It's all Woke crap."

Lots of my family and friends were graduate teachers, then some became researchers and much more. So I understood when another (usually moderate) friend, a highly qualified physicist working on the front line in the NHS shocked me by saying "When the revolution comes Thatcher should be first against the wall!"

 

[SynthD]

These unused slots result from a growing number of services designated “strategic capacity”, usually freight trains. Last summer’s timetable included 413 such slots, consuming 28,853 train miles.

No comparison made with previous years to support the key claim that the number of slots is growing. Are those train miles the distance of the freight service, or the distance on the WCML during passenger hours?

 

[Djgr]

The Centre For Policy studies was founded by Keith Joseph and Margaret Thatcher to challenge the post war Keynesian consensus. It is closely linked to but independent from the Tory party. The identity of thier funders is not clear and as a think tank they are influential on right wing politics. They stand for low tax, small state, free market tory stuff.

What's the game here?

Yes, as soon as I saw that they were the author I dismissed it as a load of Thatcherite lunacy.