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The Labour Party under Andy Burnham

DarloRich

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What about him?
He was a fantastic political operator and a very successful PM but his accent wasn't the reason for his success. His intelligence, family background and education played a big part!

given Starmer tends to be seen as posh and out of touch in Reform-voting areas.
I am surprised by that. I have heard a lot of criticism of Starmer, much of it utterly manufactured wibble, but him being "posh" and "southern" has never come up.
 
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Uncle Buck

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A Labour leadership election at this point in time will just be endless pledges to spend more and more public money, designed to win the support of an electorate (Labour members) whose entire worldview is predicated on that. The candidate who pledges to spend the most will win and then there will be meltdown in the bond markets. The IMF will need to take over the economy.
 

SJL2020

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I think the current bond crisis is decades in the making: selling off state assets and outsourcing a lot of key industry, without properly investing in alternatives, started this. Then the banking crisis created the "too big to fail" concept and encouraged state bailouts, which combined with the former created a deficit-based model for "managing" an economy. Covid exacerbated this, which then led to inflation and higher interest rates. Liz Truss's actions then "crossed the Rubicon", now the bond markets are on edge all the time, and this is creating a very difficult environment in which to invest where we need to invest to reverse the whole situation. What's happening in the bond market now in response to leadership uncertainty would not be an issue if we were more resilient as a whole.

UK is increasingly seen as a risk compared to other European countries, e.g. UK 30-year gilt yields are around 1.1% higher than the equivalent the (e.g.) Italian government currently has to pay. So international investors see Italy as a significantly less risky place to lend to than the UK, which is pretty startling when you stand back and think about it (OK, I am old enough to remember the times when Italy had a new Government every 3-4 months).

I think if bond markets thought that the UK was likely to increase investment on productive infrastructure we wouldn't be seeing our borrowing costs spike. Rather it is the fear that a new PM would order the spending taps will be turned on for things such as social welfare in an effort to regain popularity.

Italy has the big advantage of being backed by the ECB. We are very much on our own.
 

Uncle Buck

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yes they didn't have to under Lettuce Liz Truss..................
Not quite, but it is an exact replay of Truss (just like Starmer’s premiership has IMO many similarities to Johnson’s). She told her party members “you can have tax cuts”, Starmer’s successor will tell Labour they can have huge spending increases.

In both cases fiscal reality was just ignored.
 

DarloRich

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Starmer’s successor will tell Labour they can have huge spending increases.
"huge" is subjective. I think there will be promises of more spending in targeted areas but not suicidal spending. That said apparently my entire world view, as a labour member, is predicated on public spending so I will just vote for the biggest clown.
 

Uncle Buck

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"huge" is subjective. I think there will be promises of more spending in targeted areas but not suicidal spending. That said apparently my entire world view, as a labour member, is predicated on public spending so I will just vote for the biggest clown.
Sorry to offend. But Tory members voted for Truss, who was basically their id. Why should Labour voters be any different?

(Actually, I have an answer to my own question there. Many of those who voted for Truss have subsequently probably left the Tory party for Reform. But many of those who would have been likely to vote for the more extreme Labour candidate have probably already joined the Greens).
 

JamieL

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A Labour leadership election at this point in time will just be endless pledges to spend more and more public money, designed to win the support of an electorate (Labour members) whose entire worldview is predicated on that. The candidate who pledges to spend the most will win and then there will be meltdown in the bond markets. The IMF will need to take over the economy.
Exactly this. Spend more and more public money squeezing middle England even more. The result will be Labour losing the next General Election and Reform coming in. The great irony of that is it will massively decrease the quality of life for those that Labour seeks to improve. Take healthcare for example - the provision of health services to the low income unemployed, elderly and disabled is a comprehensive taxpayer funded system based on clinical need that is far beyond what such individuals could ever expect under the Reform insurance funded approach.
 

DarloRich

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Sorry to offend. But Tory members voted for Truss, who was basically their id. Why should Labour voters be any different?
only teasing - it is a fair point. I just don't think the likely candidates such as Burnham and Streeting are turn on the taps types. Rayner perhaps, Milliband perhaps less so.

A crank candidate is more likely to suggest unlimited spending but i cant see one coming through this time.
 

YorkshireBear

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Good to see we aren't focussing on running and improving the country and instead Labour MPs are clamouring to act like petulant children.
 

Yew

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I think if bond markets thought that the UK was likely to increase investment on productive infrastructure we wouldn't be seeing our borrowing costs spike. Rather it is the fear that a new PM would order the spending taps will be turned on for things such as social welfare in an effort to regain popularity.
Exactly this, we need to focus on infrastructure and investment. Starmer used to speak a good game, and seemed to be doing some sensible reforms with how spending was categorised early on, but it feels like we never saw the investment manifest in reality.
 

The Ham

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Exactly this. Spend more and more public money squeezing middle England even more. The result will be Labour losing the next General Election and Reform coming in. The great irony of that is it will massively decrease the quality of life for those that Labour seeks to improve. Take healthcare for example - the provision of health services to the low income unemployed, elderly and disabled is a comprehensive taxpayer funded system based on clinical need that is far beyond what such individuals could ever expect under the Reform insurance funded approach.

It does depend on what the spending is on.

"Creditcard" type spending (tax cuts, more pension benefits, and other day to day spending) is not what is needed.

"Mortgage" type spending (infrastructure, replacing old hospitals, etc) is what is needed.

The Bond Markets will react differently to each.
 

Purple Train

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He was a fantastic political operator and a very successful PM but his accent wasn't the reason for his success. His intelligence, family background and education played a big part!
True. I'm not suggesting that a northern PM would be all sunshine and rainbows, or that Wilson was only successful because he was from Huddersfield. But given lots of the support for Reform comes from a desire to be "represented" in some way, maybe having an identifiably northern PM would aid that in some respect, given it is 50 years since Wilson retired.
I am surprised by that. I have heard a lot of criticism of Starmer, much of it utterly manufactured wibble, but him being "posh" and "southern" has never come up.
To be fair, your experience is probably slightly more extensive than mine! But of course many of the same people see Rayner as a scruffy oik, so they really can't win...
 

Broucek

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He was a fantastic political operator and a very successful PM but his accent wasn't the reason for his success. His intelligence, family background and education played a big part!


I am surprised by that. I have heard a lot of criticism of Starmer, much of it utterly manufactured wibble, but him being "posh" and "southern" has never come up.
Agreed. Blair and Boris both posher but with much, much better people skills that Starmer

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

A Labour leadership election at this point in time will just be endless pledges to spend more and more public money, designed to win the support of an electorate (Labour members) whose entire worldview is predicated on that. The candidate who pledges to spend the most will win and then there will be meltdown in the bond markets. The IMF will need to take over the economy.
Sad but true.... The backbenchers have shown precious little discipline. There are good reasons why one might not support the (not that severe) welfare reforms proposed on a point of principle but back benchers do need to allow the government to govern.
 

Arglwydd Golau

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I feel like whatever way you look at it the talent pool isn’t particularly deep? I wanted this government to succeed because I increasingly feel like they might be the last government for a while who try and govern for the widest section of the population.

Genuine question, who do you think they should go for?

To be honest, I haven't a clue!,,,,but rearranging the deckchairs isn't going to do anything, replacing Starmer with someone who is going to continue with the same policies isn't going to get anywhere.
Obviously I would prefer someone who would reaffirm Labour's traditional roots and values, but I can't see anyone who might do that is in with a shout!
 

Broucek

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It's a tough balancing act

The backbenchers don't want someone on the right of the party but floating voters don't want someone on the left...

Whoever they pick needs the ability to connect with people - the PLP (to get bills etc passed) AND voters (to get re-elected). Sir Kier can't do either of those things. And many candidates can only do the first (Rayner, Milliband).
 

Bletchleyite

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Whoever they pick needs the ability to connect with people - the PLP (to get bills etc passed) AND voters (to get re-elected). Sir Kier can't do either of those things.

As I might already have said, Burnham is a Scouser* who got Mancs to vote for him. I can't see that there's a better option and it's bizarre that people are attempting to block him.

Yes, he's left of Starmer, but so what? If that's what the voters want. He's hardly Corbyn.

* Actually went to the same primary school as me! Ten years or so earlier though.
 

Howardh

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As I might already have said, Burnham is a Scouser* who got Mancs to vote for him. I can't see that there's a better option and it's bizarre that people are attempting to block him.

Yes, he's left of Starmer, but so what? If that's what the voters want. He's hardly Corbyn.

* Actually went to the same school as me! Ten years or so earlier though.
In my humble opinion, he's done an excellent job with Manchester's public transport, and it's only half-way through (buses done - rail next + more tram lines etc). Huge worry that if he left, the next mayor would be Reform and set about, well, reversing it all.

Could end up with Burnham being a brilliant PM for some years under Labour, but Reform reducing local services on the ground.
 

DarloRich

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We have reached the junior ministers resigning stage
But of course many of the same people see Rayner as a scruffy oik, so they really can't win...
usually a thick scruffy oik!

Could end up with Burnham being a brilliant PM for some years under Labour,
the problem is he isn't an MP and has lost the leadership elections twice
 

Uncle Buck

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To be honest, I haven't a clue!,,,,but rearranging the deckchairs isn't going to do anything, replacing Starmer with someone who is going to continue with the same policies isn't going to get anywhere.
Obviously I would prefer someone who would reaffirm Labour's traditional roots and values, but I can't see anyone who might do that is in with a shout!
To go off on a tangent, Starmer has reaffirmed Labour’s traditional roots and values: high taxes, high spending, interference in the economy, social conservatism, Atlanticism. His is a recognisably “old Labour” government. It’s just that this is either entirely outdated or it doesn’t appeal to the people who actually vote Labour nowadays. It’s designed to appeal to Bert the steelworker in Durham. Bert died twenty years ago and his son loves Farage!
Sad but true.... The backbenchers have shown precious little discipline. There are good reasons why one might not support the (not that severe) welfare reforms proposed on a point of principle but back benchers do need to allow the government to govern.
Another major issue with politics in recent years is that whereas MPs used to be almost amateurs, and regarded themselves as there to support the party leadership- “I always voted at my party’s call, I never thought of thinking for myself at all”- nowadays they are professionals, who try to establish themselves as “local champions”. This creates a tendency to hostility to any kind of change- especially a tendency to Nimbyism. This is one area where I admire the brutal conformity of the SNP!

It does depend on what the spending is on.

"Creditcard" type spending (tax cuts, more pension benefits, and other day to day spending) is not what is needed.

"Mortgage" type spending (infrastructure, replacing old hospitals, etc) is what is needed.

The Bond Markets will react differently to each.
The country could definitely do with a huge package of “mortgage” spending- one of the ways we can break out of our economic torpor- with rail as a major component- but let’s be real, a government of the Labour left is going to be offering more of the “credit card” (great analogy btw) stuff. It’s one reason why farmers are so bitter about the tax hike- centuries of work sold to fund this year’s benefits bill.
 

JamieL

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he has - and I voted for him twice - but he has the most difficult path to leadership. He has 2 elections to win.
Equally though, who is going to want Streeting? Everyone knows Burnham would be the better candidate so it seems both the PLP and the electorate will be asked to accept a second tier candidate. That is hardly an election winning prospect!
 

AlterEgo

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Jess Phillips has resigned. Another one who had leadership ambitions in the past...
 

SJL2020

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Streeting must surely be serious danger of losing his seat in the next General Election. He only scraped in last time by a few hundred votes. If he becomes PM will they look to relocate him somewhere safer?
 

Howardh

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Equally though, who is going to want Streeting?
Not me. Might be unfair but he looks and sounds really dull, and a bit Jenericky.

Someone like Rayner, maybe as a temporary PM while we get Burnham in, might shake things up a bit. But I'm still flummoxed - what exactly has Starmer done wrong? I get the u-turns over the WFA, but if a government gets it right in the end, surely they should be applauded??
 

JonathanH

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Spend more and more public money squeezing middle England even more. The result will be Labour losing the next General Election and Reform coming in.
Middle England aren't generally Reform supporters though and probably would be prepared to pay more tax (in the guise of supporting Liberal Democrat and Labour policies) if that is what is needed to keep Reform out.
 

AlterEgo

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Not me. Might be unfair but he looks and sounds really dull, and a bit Jenericky.

Someone like Rayner, maybe as a temporary PM while we get Burnham in, might shake things up a bit. But I'm still flummoxed - what exactly has Starmer done wrong? I get the u-turns over the WFA, but if a government gets it right in the end, surely they should be applauded??
He's a terrible communicator with no overarching vision or opinions beyond what his advisors - or sometimes some lawyers - say. That's really his major fault.
 

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He's a terrible communicator with no overarching vision or opinions beyond what his advisors - or sometimes some lawyers - say. That's really his major fault.

He's also got no courage of his convictions. He U-turned on, for example, increasing income tax, having instead gone the way of stealth taxation which has seriously harmed small business, particularly hospitality.
 

DarloRich

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what exactly has Starmer done wrong?
Not much that really matters - however the media and social media wibblers have been allowed to create a "worst PM ever narrative" which is now running wild in the minds of those estranged from intellectual consideration

He is a dull, boring lawyer. He has always been that. To suggest he is the worst PM ever is preposterous.
 

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