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In Scotland where the first results have been trickling in since around lunchtime (no word on the results from my local area - Clydebank & Milngavie - yet), most so far have been SNP holds unsurprisingly - Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley, Carrick, Cumnick & Doon Valley, Dundee City West & East, Midlothian North, Perthshire South & Kinross-shire, Perthshire North, Aberdeen Central & Aberdeen Deeside & North Kincardine - with the Lib Dems holding onto the Orkney Islands.
The SNP unseating the Lib Dems in Shetland is the biggest headline in the Scottish elections thus far however; it's the first time a Liberal - no matter what form the Liberal Party has taken - hasn't represented the islands since 1950.
Labour has gained Na h-Eileanan an Iar from the SNP. Not a huge surprise considering that the Western Isles was traditionally seen as Labour territory.
I'm gobsmacked by the Shetland result, though.
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Banffshire and Buchan Coast
Cowdenbeath
Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent
Perhaps, though as @GusB notes, the Western Isles have tradtionally been seen as Labour territory and they had already gained the islands in the 2024 general election from the SNP, so this one's not quite as seismic as the Shetland result.
The last one listed there is a tight majority with just 418 votes between the SNP & Labour in 2nd place. Shaping up to be a rerun of 2024 but for the SNP this time, seats gained/retained with small/tiny margins of victory.
Edinburgh Northern - Lib Dem gain from SNP (beaten to it by @GusB above).
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Cunninghame North
Edinburgh South Western
Almond Valley
Renfrewshire West & Levern Valley
All retained by SNP
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Edinburgh Southern - Labour gain from SNP. Compared to the other majorities seen thus far, this one is positively massive: 16,963 compared to the SNP's on the dot 12,000.
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Fife North East - Lib Dem hold. SNP unsurpirisingly got trounced here, maintaining a decade long streak for Willie Rennie.
Edinburgh Southern - Labour gain from SNP. Compared to the other majorities seen thus far, this one is positively massive: 16,963 compared to the SNP's on the dot 12,000.
Only classed as a Labour gain because of boundary changes - sitting MSP Daniel Johnson was re-elected. He has done well holding the unionist vote together in a constituency with a lot of affluent areas.
My impression without a lot of detailed analysis is that, regardless of the FPTP outcomes, the SNP have done not too well, and Labour not too badly.
Only classed as a Labour gain because of boundary changes - sitting MSP Daniel Johnson was re-elected. He has done well holding the unionist vote together in a constituency with a lot of affluent areas.
My impression without a lot of detailed analysis is that, regardless of the FPTP outcomes, the SNP have done not too well, and Labour not too badly.
It's a bit too early to tell. We don't know how the second vote will break. There is some evidence that SNP voters aren't giving the second vote to them, but whether that repeats itself nationwide is another question.
But I think the real story will be what happens with the Greens. It's going to be very hard for Labour to refuse a second independence referendum if pro-Indy parties get 70+ seats.
I've just been listening to Douglas Ross being interviewed and he made the point that Reform might actually have done better had they not stood candidates in constituency seats and focussed entirely on picking up list seats. This is essentially the strategy that the Greens have been using over the years.
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Very easy indeed. The test should be how many constituency votes were for nationalist parties or if you prefer how many list votes, not double-counting because some people split their votes between two nationalist parties. The problem with this voting system is that it encourages gaming the system as Alex Salmond tried to do with his Alba party. We could do with a proper PR system.
The BBC gives the following for the constituency vote for 68 out of 73 seats.
It's a bit too early to tell. We don't know how the second vote will break. There is some evidence that SNP voters aren't giving the second vote to them, but whether that repeats itself nationwide is another question.
But I think the real story will be what happens with the Greens. It's going to be very hard for Labour to refuse a second independence referendum if pro-Indy parties get 70+ seats.
Given how many constituencies the SNP win, it’s almost impossible for them to pick up list seats even if they were getting both votes.
I think it will be quite easy for them to refuse a second referendum. There were already more than 70 pro-Indy MSPs and previous requests were rejected.
Given how many constituencies the SNP win, it’s almost impossible for them to pick up list seats even if they were getting both votes.
I think it will be quite easy for them to refuse a second referendum. There were already more than 70 pro-Indy MSPs and previous requests were rejected.
The main reason such requests will be refused is because any British government knows fine well that they can get away with it.
As we have already seen when such requests have been denied before, some earnest people go on a mildly cringeworthy March down the Royal Mile and the usual suspects bloviate that “Scotland will never stand for this” while Scotland does, indeed, stand for this.
Nobody is rioting or committing civil disobedience or going on a tax strike. John Swinney and his colleagues are not going on hunger strike- they are paid handsome salaries which many of them would not otherwise command.
Compare that to the French rioting over pensions, or the Gen Z protests in countries like Nepal. And any British government in its right mind treads carefully with the Northern Ireland Assembly.
Indeed I would argue that a British government could probably get away with abolishing the Scottish Parliament without too much aggro.
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