The Labour Party under Andy Burnham

[Snow1964]

Starmer is gone after the locals. Labour will take a shoeing.

latest local election predictions (extracted from tables in Independent)

Labour 1132 councillors, down 1425 from 2557 being defended
some polls have them losing more than 1500

Other predictions
Conservative 455, down 907 from 1362 being defended
Lib Dem 1077, up 393 from 684 being defended
Green 696, up 555 from 141
Reform 1355 up 1352 from 3

Local elections 2026: What are the polls saying for Labour, Reform and the Greens?

Labour is forecast between half and three-quarters of its councillors

www.independent.co.uk

 

[yorkie]

Regardless, we ARE seeing a massive rise in anti semitic behaviour in this country. Stabbings, fire bombings, shootings (!) & an increase in abusive behaviour on the streets. That all seems ok to many on the left/farther left because Palestine!

Do you have any sources for this? Who on the left says this is OK?

Although it is sadly entirely foreseeable that the actions of Israel would have such consequences, only extremists would say this is "ok" and I don't think it is fair to lump "the left" in with the views of some extremists.

As for the rest of your post, I refer you to @Tetchytyke's excellent, astute and on-point response in post #3,929 above.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

latest local election predictions

Labour 1132 councillors, down 1425 from 2557 being defended
some polls have them losing more than 1500

Other predictions
Conservative 455, down 907 from 1362 being defended
Lib Dem 1077, up 393 from 684 being defended
Green 696, up 555 from 141
Reform 1355 up 1352 from 3

I suspect we will see a lot of tactical voting to prevent Reform from getting the upper hand although in Wales that may end up with Plaid becoming biggest party in Senedd. Labour will lose big numbers but all incumbents do but it makes no difference they have another three years. They will parrot out the same tripe about listening but nothing will change its the UK playbook.

 

[Snow1964]

I suspect we will see a lot of tactical voting to prevent Reform from getting the upper hand although in Wales that may end up with Plaid becoming biggest party in Senedd. Labour will lose big numbers but all incumbents do but it makes no difference they have another three years. They will parrot out the same tripe about listening but nothing will change its the UK playbook.

Polls tend to be based on national samples, and even though adjustments tend to be made, there is lot of room for error when it comes to tactical voting, or local issues, and local Independent candidates.

In the past, when had say 3 local council votes, I have happily split (rather than vote all one party), picking the most active incumbent, an independent, and what seems best of smaller party.

A small number of votes can affect a ward, so apathy (no vote) or dissatisfaction (voting for anyone else, but current party) can be big part of this.

It is noticeable how political commentators are saying Labour will lose lots of seats, but they are now avoiding commenting on who might win where, which suggests so much uncertainty, no one wants to call it wrongly.

Maybe Labour will lie low this week, hoping bad news will fade away. The Commons is now on recess until Wednesday 13th May.

 

[Tetchytyke]

On the subject of anti-semitism, a group of protestors have "randomly" showed up in Golders Green to chant "Keir Starmer, Jew Harmer" at him.

Keir Starmer's wife and children are practising Jews and Starmer himself keeps Friday evenings free for shabbat with his family. You'll remember that he was criticised for that, too, as though celebrating shabbat with his family is a bad thing.

Demonstrators heckled the prime minister as he arrived at a Jewish community ambulance centre in Golders Green on Thursday afternoon.

A group of around 100 people could be heard chanting “Keir Starmer, Jew harmer” and held posters with the same slogan.

Niaz Maleknia, 57, was one of the demonstrators protesting as Keir Starmer visited a Jewish community ambulance service following the Golders Green terrorist attack.

Speaking to the Press Association on Thursday afternoon, she said: “I can’t stand this man, so that’s why I’m here, because he has done nothing but stand in the way of Donald Trump and Israel.

Golders Green attack suspect named as Essa Suleiman and was previously referred to Prevent – as it happened

Suleiman had been referred to counterterrorism scheme in 2020 but case was closed the same year

www.theguardian.com

So a man whose family are Jewish is anti-Jew because he "stands in the way of Israel." Hmm. Sounds a bit like the anti-semitic Good Jew/Bad Jew trope to me.

 

[The Ham]

Keir Starmer's wife and children are practising Jews and Starmer himself keeps Friday evenings free for shabbat with his family. You'll remember that he was criticised for that, too, as though celebrating shabbat with his family is a bad thing.

I'd forgetting that detail, but when I saw that headline earlier it felt off, like something wasn't sitting right. Having been reminded of that detail, it explains why I may have felt that way.

 

[martin butler]

For some, that Keir Starmer's wife happens to be a practicing Jew, will be grounds enough, to denounce him, Neo- Nazis, on the far right, but also, far left supporters of Palestine, who can't see the difference between being a member of the Jewish faith, and supporting the actions of the Israeli government,

 

[Broucek]

A friend of a friend who I met on Saturday (a Labour party member and an otherwise intelligent man) tried to explain to me that most of the current cabinet including the PM and Chancellor had been effectively bought and paid for by the Israeli government.

There's no point in arguing with such people so I changed the subject so as not to spoil the occaision.

 

[MP33]

Was Miriam Margoyles, effectively excommunicated for criticising, Israeli government policy. On the show, where celebrities look at a place in the sun, to move to. On visiting Florida, she got embroiled in a big stand-up row. With a Jewish American.

 

[Harpo]

Was Miriam Margoyles, effectively excommunicated for criticising, Israeli government policy. On the show, where celebrities look at a place in the sun, to move to. On visiting Florida, she got embroiled in a big stand-up row. With a Jewish American.

Margolyes has never stinted in her dislike of Netanyahu. In a live show last year she used the same term (one the BBC calls very strong language) for both Netanyahu and Boris Johnson. 2 out of 2.

 

[weeklycommuter]

latest local election predictions (extracted from tables in Independent)

Labour 1132 councillors, down 1425 from 2557 being defended
some polls have them losing more than 1500

Other predictions
Conservative 455, down 907 from 1362 being defended
Lib Dem 1077, up 393 from 684 being defended
Green 696, up 555 from 141
Reform 1355 up 1352 from 3

The real numbers will only be known when all the votes are counted. Predictions set expectations so if the results are bad for the Labour Party but not as bad as the predictions all talk of a Labour leadership challenge will probably disappear. Not that there appears to be any credible alternative to Sir Keir Starmer at present and changing the party leader and Prime Minister after only two years in office is generally not a good idea.

 

[317 forever]

Job done. Starmer can now ‘fall’ over the local election results instead of getting the push over Mandelson.

Admittedly Labour will probably do quite a bit worse than otherwise due to the fallout from the Mandelson saga.

 

[Yew]

A friend of a friend who I met on Saturday (a Labour party member and an otherwise intelligent man) tried to explain to me that most of the current cabinet including the PM and Chancellor had been effectively bought and paid for by the Israeli government.

There's no point in arguing with such people so I changed the subject so as not to spoil the occaision.

This article does seem to suggest a reasonable proportion of the cabinet have received donations from pro-Israel organisations, though it does seem somewhat light on links to direct sources for said information.

Israel lobby funded half of Keir Starmer’s cabinet

Exclusive: Labour’s top team has accepted hundreds of thousands of pounds from pro-Israel funders.

www.declassifieduk.org

Pro-Israel lobbyists have donated to 13 out of Labour’s 25 cabinet members since they were first elected to parliament, Declassified can reveal.


The list of recipients includes prime minister Keir Starmer, his deputy Angela Rayner, chancellor Rachel Reeves, foreign secretary David Lammy and home secretary Yvette Cooper.


Jonathan Reynolds, who will oversee arms exports to Israel as UK trade secretary, is another beneficiary, alongside Labour’s election mastermind Pat McFadden, whose responsibilities now include national security.


Some of the donations were provided by Labour Friends of Israel (LFI), a lobby group which takes MPs on “fact-finding” missions to the region.


Reeves, McFadden, Reynolds and technology secretary Peter Kyle were recently listed as vice-chairs of LFI.


Other major funders include pro-Israel businessmen Trevor Chinn and Stuart Roden.


The total value of the donations amounts to over £300,000.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Was Miriam Margoyles, effectively excommunicated for criticising, Israeli government policy.

I don’t know about Miriam, but the children’s author Michael Rosen received a lot of hate because he supported Corbyn. Michael Rosen is Jewish, yet a Director of the anti-Corbyn pressure group Labour Against Antisemitism photoshopped Rosen’s book ‘We’re Going on a Bear Hunt’ to reference the anti-Semitic Protocols of the Elders of Zion.

Weirdly, the Labour right didn’t seem to have an issue with that.

Michael Rosen condemns ‘loathsome and antisemitic’ manipulated image

Northumbria University is investigating one of its staff for sharing a doctored image of Jeremy Corbyn reading an antisemitic text, placed over Rosen’s We’re Going on a Bear Hunt

www.theguardian.com

Northumbria University is urgently investigating one of its academics after a doctored image was shared from his Twitter account showing Jeremy Corbyn reading from the notorious antisemitic forgery The Protocols of the Learned Elders of Zion. The title had been superimposed on the Michael Rosen book We’re Going on a Bear Hunt, which Corbyn was actually reading from, with Rosen describing the image as “loathsome and antisemitic”.

 

[JamieL]

Well, judgement day has arrived for the Starmer Government. Regrettably it seems most results are going to be withheld until tomorrow so it is going to be sometime before we get the electoral readout of how badly the Labour administration is viewed and to get a glimpse at what the political future of the UK may look like.

 

[Western Sunset]

Well, judgement day has arrived for the Starmer Government. Regrettably it seems most results are going to be withheld until tomorrow so it is going to be sometime before we get the electoral readout of how badly the Labour administration is viewed and to get a glimpse at what the political future of the UK may look like.

They're not being "withheld" Jamiel; most (if not all) the counts will be tomorrow.

 

[weeklycommuter]

Well, judgement day has arrived for the Starmer Government. Regrettably it seems most results are going to be withheld until tomorrow so it is going to be sometime before we get the electoral readout of how badly the Labour administration is viewed and to get a glimpse at what the political future of the UK may look like.

The elections are for the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments and councillors in London borough and some other councils in England. The results will inevitably be interpreted as a verdict on the Labour UK Government and this will influence the vote to some extent but they are not elections to the UK Parliament. Voters will be voting on policies and issues specific to Scotland and Wales in elections to the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments and policies and issues specific to their local areas in elections to local councils in England.

 

[nr758123]

Well, judgement day has arrived for the Starmer Government. Regrettably it seems most results are going to be withheld until tomorrow so it is going to be sometime before we get the electoral readout of how badly the Labour administration is viewed and to get a glimpse at what the political future of the UK may look like.

I'm voting for the candidates who I think are best equipped to represent me on my local council. There may be quite a few others doing the same. I'm not making a judgement on what I think of Starmer or Farage or any of the other party leaders.

I apologise for not treating this as an opinion poll on national politics.

 

[jon0844]

Well, judgement day has arrived for the Starmer Government. Regrettably it seems most results are going to be withheld until tomorrow so it is going to be sometime before we get the electoral readout of how badly the Labour administration is viewed and to get a glimpse at what the political future of the UK may look like.

Should they announce the results during the night before anyone has started counting?

Is this the latest conspiracy theory nonsense on social media now?

 

[Broucek]

I'm voting for the candidates who I think are best equipped to represent me on my local council. There may be quite a few others doing the same. I'm not making a judgement on what I think of Starmer or Farage or any of the other party leaders.

I apologise for not treating this as an opinion poll on national politics.

There's a lot to be said for this but people who are into politics often don't see it this way. For example, a friend is standing for the [not my team] party. He said, "you'd never vote for me". I said I would as he'd make a terrific local councillor - but he's in the next door Ward so.....

Also, councils differ. My Labour council (London Borough) is pretty good but the Labour administration in the next door Borough is truly awful.

 

[Snow1964]

I'm voting for the candidates who I think are best equipped to represent me on my local council. There may be quite a few others doing the same. I'm not making a judgement on what I think of Starmer or Farage or any of the other party leaders.

I apologise for not treating this as an opinion poll on national politics.

I know lot of people do that, even if it means voting for say candidates from 2 parties and an Independent. (Splitting the vote)

Got to be pretty obsessed with a party, just to vote exclusively for them, even if some of their candidates are mediocre, or not live locally

 

[JamieL]

The elections are for the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments and councillors in London borough and some other councils in England. The results will inevitably be interpreted as a verdict on the Labour UK Government and this will influence the vote to some extent but they are not elections to the UK Parliament. Voters will be voting on policies and issues specific to Scotland and Wales in elections to the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments and policies and issues specific to their local areas in elections to local councils in England.

Indeed. But I think many (most?) voters are smart enough to realise the impact that the regional vote may have on national politics. If Labour take a severe drubbing, it will make the PM's position very difficult and may contribute to his fall. Those looking beyond a superficial analysis will factor this into their consideration.

 

[sor]

Well, judgement day has arrived for the Starmer Government. Regrettably it seems most results are going to be withheld until tomorrow so it is going to be sometime before we get the electoral readout of how badly the Labour administration is viewed and to get a glimpse at what the political future of the UK may look like.

"withheld" - no, that's just how it tends to work for local elections. Councils aren't flush with cash as it is, and paying the counters and admin staff to work unsociable hours is not a good return on investment compared to general elections where the result may have international implications. Even then, some council areas "withhold" the result for a day or two where logistics make an overnight count impractical (eg island constituencies)

Green and Reform voters will still have plenty of time to celebrate at the weekend if the polls translate into reality.

 

[jon0844]

"withheld" - no, that's just how it tends to work for local elections. Councils aren't flush with cash as it is, and paying the counters and admin staff to work unsociable hours is not a good return on investment compared to general elections where the result may have international implications. Even then, some council areas "withhold" the result for a day or two where logistics make an overnight count impractical (eg island constituencies)

Green and Reform voters will still have plenty of time to celebrate at the weekend if the polls translate into reality.

I'm sure if Reform don't win as much as they hope, they're ready to claim foul play.

 

[The Ham]

Whatever your view on who should be in power, everyone should go and vote.

I often joke that if you don't vote then you can't complain.

 

[ChrisC]

I'm voting for the candidates who I think are best equipped to represent me on my local council. There may be quite a few others doing the same. I'm not making a judgement on what I think of Starmer or Farage or any of the other party leaders.

I apologise for not treating this as an opinion poll on national politics.

I’ve always done that in local elections both for the County Council and District Council elections. Whatever is happening nationally does not really have much influence on how I vote in local elections. At local elections I have always voted Conservative because I believe their candidates know and serve the immediate local area the best. The Conservative candidates have always been very local and are usually people who have already been serving on the Parish Council of one of the local villages.

 

[londonbridge]

I’ve had no election communication from Labour whatsoever…..the Lib Dem’s always claim that my area is a two horse race between them and the Conservatives and that “Labour can’t win here”…..hardly surprising if they make no or little effort at campaigning.

 

[gg1]

I'm sure if Reform don't win as much as they hope, they're ready to claim foul play.

They've definitely been prepping for that on social media. I've seen numerous Facebook posts the past week from Reform supporters and Reform branded groups telling people to take their own pens instead of using the supplied pencils at polling stations in order to prevent their ballot papers being changed.

 

[jon0844]

MSN

...So Nigel used his EU passport as ID to vote. Funny how so many people that were behind campaigns to leave the EU had dual-nationality to ensure they wouldn't personally be impacted.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Starmer wont have the best of nights but whatever the results he sits on a massive majority with three years to go so needs to dig in against the right wing press trying to undermine him.