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SWR class 458/4 - possible withdrawal speculation

JonathanH

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SE will need at least 15 more 377s to make that happen, and for 12-car 377s to be permitted on these services. In theory this is doable, but how many SE get depends on how much of a net gain Southern need.
Unless some 377/3s suddenly become available, then 10-car 377 formations can work to Tunbridge Wells, as they do with Networkers. Freeing those up from the Coastway and sending them to Southeastern seems to have its merits.

What net gain can we identify Southern needing?
 
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SECR 65

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What net gain can we identify Southern needing?
BML services are really busy - they need to be 12 car ideally. With the loss of the 455s and the 313s services are becoming shorter. As I mentioned above the recent NR report identified the need for capacity upgrades on the Brighton Mainline. Imo the easiest way to start going about this is make all trains 12 coaches where possible due to infrastructure. As far as I can tell GTR do not currently have enough stock to do this.
 

brad465

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Unless some 377/3s suddenly become available, then 10-car 377 formations can work to Tunbridge Wells, as they do with Networkers. Freeing those up from the Coastway and sending them to Southeastern seems to have its merits.
Southeastern will likely want to avoid the 5-car units for commonality reasons, as all their 377s are 4-car. 12-car would increase capacity, as even 10-car Networkers get crowded in the peaks, mainly because they're the only fast Orpington peak services. The only other alternative is more mainline services that run fast to/from Orpington in the peak, whether terminating at Orpington or further south, but the paths and stock probably don't exist for this.
 

JonathanH

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Southeastern will likely want to avoid the 5-car units for commonality reasons, as all their 377s are 4-car. 12-car would increase capacity, as even 10-car Networkers get crowded in the peaks, mainly because they're the only fast Orpington peak services. The only other alternative is more mainline services that run fast to/from Orpington in the peak, whether terminating at Orpington or further south, but the paths and stock probably don't exist for this.
I was thinking of 4+3+3 (or even 4+4+3) formations using the 377/3s. I'm sure that the 5-car units aren't on offer.
 

SECR 65

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Southeastern will likely want to avoid the 5-car units for commonality reasons, as all their 377s are 4-car. 12-car would increase capacity, as even 10-car Networkers get crowded in the peaks, mainly because they're the only fast Orpington peak services. The only other alternative is more mainline services that run fast to/from Orpington in the peak, whether terminating at Orpington or further south, but the paths and stock probably don't exist for this.
It was established on another thread somewhere that a 12 377 will not fit in the Tunbridge Wells turnback siding - this was discussed in some detail iirc
 

Ridgeblog

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On the other threads it's being speculated that the 458/4s might see further use at GTR, but could that still apply also to the 458/5s? The 5s have now already been withdrawn but as they're a non standard microfleet it seems they may be withdrawn permanently unless the refurbishment gets extended to make them like the 4s, which is probably unlikely, unless somehow they're used together without modifications. Evidently both are not seeing further use with SWR since there's more than enough 701s to replace them even without the 701/5s which I think still are waiting to run in service?
 

billybox

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On the other threads it's being speculated that the 458/4s might see further use at GTR, but could that still apply also to the 458/5s? The 5s have now already been withdrawn but as they're a non standard microfleet it seems they may be withdrawn permanently unless the refurbishment gets extended to make them like the 4s, which is probably unlikely, unless somehow they're used together without modifications. Evidently both are not seeing further use with SWR since there's more than enough 701s to replace them even without the 701/5s which I think still are waiting to run in service?
would be nice to see the 458/4s on the south london metro routes. this could perhaps indirectly revive service cuts. but what’s the chances
 

BerkshireRails

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It would seem easier to have them work on the Coastway like the 313s did. Raw workings seem to be:
2 units Brighton to Eastbourne
3 units Brighton to Ore
3 units Brighton to Seaford
8 units Brighton to Southampton
3 units Brighton to Chichester
3 units Brighton to Portsmouth

28 units for 24 diagrams, releasing 387s for Gatwick Express and 377/3s for Metro or possibly 10-car work, although the return of 4tph Gatwick Express is not something most would want to see.
If the other 8 458/5s are converted to 458/4s. Would that permit more Coastway services to switch over to 458/4s or running 8 car sets on Southamptons?
 

Ridgeblog

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If the other 8 458/5s are converted to 458/4s. Would that permit more Coastway services to switch over to 458/4s or running 8 car sets on Southamptons?
Yeah I don't see how that can work otherwise, unless 28 of them enough and the rest are scrapped, as I don't see how 4 car and 5 car of the same unit type can run together on the same line? Yet another problem caused by the poor planning and messy refurbishment scheme.
 

317 forever

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They could have pantographs fitted and allocated to Northern to replace 323s and 769s, possibly with a carriage removed.

However, with Northern looking at new trains en masse from 2031 this seems expensive for such a short-term venture.
 

D365

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They could have pantographs fitted and allocated to Northern to replace 323s and 769s, possibly with a carriage removed.

However, with Northern looking at new trains en masse from 2031 this seems expensive for such a short-term venture.
Indeed. And how would the above be of any benefit to Porterbrook, which owns all of these fleets.
 

Kite159

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They could have pantographs fitted and allocated to Northern to replace 323s and 769s, possibly with a carriage removed.

However, with Northern looking at new trains en masse from 2031 this seems expensive for such a short-term venture.

I can't see the 458/4s getting converted to AC when the 350/2s are in storage
 

swt_passenger

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I can't see the 458/4s getting converted to AC when the 350/2s are in storage
Also, there are loads of previous threads, going back to the SWR 2017 decision to get rid of them, explaining that it was not cost effective to fit AC equipment.
 

Snow1964

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It would seem easier to have them work on the Coastway like the 313s did. Raw workings seem to be:
2 units Brighton to Eastbourne
3 units Brighton to Ore
3 units Brighton to Seaford
8 units Brighton to Southampton
3 units Brighton to Chichester
3 units Brighton to Portsmouth

28 units for 24 diagrams, releasing 387s for Gatwick Express and 377/3s for Metro or possibly 10-car work, although the return of 4tph Gatwick Express is not something most would want to see.
There is a lot of logic in keeping them in a dedicated geographical area and not mixing them with London trains. I would probably limit it to just the western coastway routes

I guess could also introduce some variations eg extend Southampton terminators to Lymington if it is all one big operator.

Whilst not the best choice, the real key is if it releases 377s that are desperately needed to strengthen Southern or SouthEastern services. Have to accept those covid era commuting projections from 6 years ago, of permanent cuts 5 days a week have been overtaken by back to office, and waiting 4-5 years for new units to be built is no longer going to be a serious scenario either.
 

JonathanH

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I would probably limit it to just the western coastway routes
Why? The network is centred on Brighton, and 28 units gives flexibility and sufficient fleet size to cover both sides.

What is more interesting is being able to set up 458/4s for DCO in the manner of the 377 fleet.
 

stssts1985

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I’ve been using the 458/4s recently and they are honestly great units. The 2+2 seating is comfortable and the ride quality is good.


It just seems like a massive waste of money to see them basically "rattling around" the Hounslow Loop as a stop-gap. They were specifically shortened and refurbished for the Portsmouth fasts at huge expense only a couple of years ago. Surely SWR and the DfT knew what their fleet requirements were going to look like once the 701s finally arrived?


Even with lower passenger numbers post-Covid, the amount of money spent on these just to potentially scrap or store them feels like the 442 disaster all over again. Does anyone else feel like the business case for the refurb has been totally undermined? It’s frustrating to see such nice sets left without a home after so much was spent on them.
 

Sutton in Ant

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I think that when the 458/4s are withdrawn by SWR. I would only think that it will go to an operator who uses 3rd rail electrification, and I really don't believe that Southeastern Railway will be getting more 377s from Southern, as the 465s that are being refurbished will be enough for Southeastern Railway to go on at this moment.

Also, I would think that it could take 2 to 3 years for the 458/4s if they were to come to Southern. By that time. Southeastern Railway could well be introducing its new rolling stock to replace the networkers and the 377s that are with Southeastern Railway could be given back to Porterbrook and possibly given to Southern Railway. I don't believe that Southeastern Railway's new rolling stock will be in passenger service until I would say around September 2029.
 
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SC318250

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How is the corrosion been on the 458s when they have gone for relivery?
I know the 334s in Scotland are bad in places but I dont know if this was because they operated Ayrshire coast services years ago but also they go past the Clyde on the way to Helensburgh
 

Rick1984

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Could you transfer the class 458/4 to Southern and cascade class 387 from GWR using the class 350/2?

Allowing strengthening of Southern services and cascading more class 377 to Southeastern. Or would this create an excess?
 

Peter Mugridge

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Also, I would think that it could take 2 to 3 years for the 458/4s if they were to come to Southern.
On page 39 of Rail 1060, Laurence Bowman is quoted as saying the first 458s will be withdrawn in a couple of weeks - which could well mean a couple of weeks from the interview date rather than publication date, in which case around now.

He also states later on the same page that the suburban fleet will be a single simple type - meaning the 701s - by early next year, so yes the 458s are going, and they'll all be gone in around 7 or 8 months from now.

There are no clues given as to where they would go, if anywhere.
 

DelW

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I’ve been using the 458/4s recently and they are honestly great units. The 2+2 seating is comfortable and the ride quality is good.


It just seems like a massive waste of money to see them basically "rattling around" the Hounslow Loop as a stop-gap. They were specifically shortened and refurbished for the Portsmouth fasts at huge expense only a couple of years ago. Surely SWR and the DfT knew what their fleet requirements were going to look like once the 701s finally arrived?


Even with lower passenger numbers post-Covid, the amount of money spent on these just to potentially scrap or store them feels like the 442 disaster all over again. Does anyone else feel like the business case for the refurb has been totally undermined? It’s frustrating to see such nice sets left without a home after so much was spent on them.
I agree with what you say, but just to note, it could have been worse. At one stage, while the refurb/conversion programme was still in progress, SWR proposed never to put them into service - the converted units would be stored unused for the minimum lease period, then offloaded (and possibly scrapped without ever having carried a passenger). At the time, it was said that penalty clauses in the refurb contract made it cheaper to do this than to stop the rebuilding work. It was only the extraordinarily delayed 701s not being available to replace the 707s, that meant the 458/4s have been used at all. Unfortunately the conversion arguably made them less suitable for the available work than they had been previously.

It does seem spectacularly stupid to abandon a newly rebuilt fleet not once but twice in quick succession, but SWR aren't the only ones, GWR's 769/9s have never been used either.
 

3RDGEN

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I’m struggling to find this, can anyone quote some text? Thanks!
Page 13 of the May issue, "No home has been confirmed for the EMU's,....., there are suggestions they could transfer to GTR", nothing more than that.
 

Sutton in Ant

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On page 39 of Rail 1060, Laurence Bowman is quoted as saying the first 458s will be withdrawn in a couple of weeks - which could well mean a couple of weeks from the interview date rather than publication date, in which case around now.

He also states later on the same page that the suburban fleet will be a single simple type - meaning the 701s - by early next year, so yes the 458s are going, and they'll all be gone in around 7 or 8 months from now.

There are no clues given as to where they would go, if anywhere.
Yeh. I can understand what you are saying. I would feel that it could be the same situation as it was with the 379s. It took over 3 years for GN Railway to get the 379s, even though it was rumoured that it was going to GN in 2019, and it took till 2025 for the 379s to be in passenger service. I would say that 458/4s would be a good fit for GTR Southern Railway or SouthEastern Railway. But I wouldn't think that it is definite.
 

321362

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Friend of mine at SWR has said that they're likely to still be in service after the December timetable change, but IF they do end up going (apparently isn't 100% decided either way) May 27 will likely be the final 458 diagram for SWR. Also apparently unclear if they are headed for GTR or just for scrap - GTR have apparently shown interest but nothing more yet.

Source: word of mouth, a week or so ago - unsure if I can say any more without getting people in trouble.
 

43096

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Friend of mine at SWR has said that they're likely to still be in service after the December timetable change, but IF they do end up going (apparently isn't 100% decided either way) May 27 will likely be the final 458 diagram for SWR. Also apparently unclear if they are headed for GTR or just for scrap - GTR have apparently shown interest but nothing more yet.

Source: word of mouth, a week or so ago - unsure if I can say any more without getting people in trouble.
Why would some random at SWR know about GTR interest? Apart from anything else, GTR ceases to exist at the end of this month and any talking would be with DfT and Porterbrook.
 

Snow1964

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Why would some random at SWR know about GTR interest? Apart from anything else, GTR ceases to exist at the end of this month and any talking would be with DfT and Porterbrook.
The only possibility I can think of is the owner Porterbrook arranged a visit to inspect with potential future customer (either at depot, or off record checking a unit in service), Someone saw or heard conversation and converted it to likely deal outcome.
 

D365

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Why would some random at SWR know about GTR interest? Apart from anything else, GTR ceases to exist at the end of this month and any talking would be with DfT and Porterbrook.
Bear in mind that the various fleet teams within SWR are oftentimes privy to conflicting information.

Not that I imagine this being at all unique for SWR as a TOC, and I agree that GTR interest (or lack thereof) has nothing to do with SWR or First Group.
 

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