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Wind Power and UK Energy Use

quantinghome

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See previous point on LCOE of gas plants, at today's gas prices a CCGT plant would deliver electricity at less cost than all the offshore wind contracts bar the AR4 2021 costs. Those wind turbines were priced cheap because there was a low oil price due to COVID and most of the inputs to a wind turbine are dependant on primary energy costs. The CCGT costs more than wind because of policy choices to run them less often and then apply carbon levies.

The whole sale electricity cost is a pretty low fraction of the bill, bills are expensive because we are paying for more renewables, more storage, more peakers and more grid upgrades.
Presumably that's the cost of an unabated gas plant, not including CCS? Given the reality of man-made climate change that would be an entirely hypothetical comparison.

The increased cost of wind power is not due to the oil price. Wind, like nuclear, is essentially all up-front cost so interest rates are the main factor.

The whole argument relies on the assumption that today's gas prices will prevail. But that clearly will not happen. Norway is the only significant producer of gas in Europe and will soon enter decline due to long term depletion of its fields - especially as it has had to increase production following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the near future, the whole of Europe (including the UK of course) will be entirely dependent on imports piped from Russia and North Africa or LNG from the ME or US. All these are problematic either economically, geopolitically, or both.

Furthermore, the adoption of renewables to date has displaced a significant amount of demand for gas, without which today's European gas price would be significantly higher.
 
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Bald Rick

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See previous point on LCOE of gas plants, at today's gas prices a CCGT plant would deliver electricity at less cost than all the offshore wind contracts bar the AR4 2021 costs.

Does that include the amortised cost of building the CCGT plant(s), hooking the up to the Grid, and the overheads / profits of the generators concerened?
 

HSTEd

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Does that include the amortised cost of building the CCGT plant(s), hooking the up to the Grid, and the overheads / profits of the generators concerened?
Well it would have to be extant CCGTs, because the queue for new turbine sets stretches into the mid 2030s.

And that means the efficiency of the CCGTs would be 45%, not 63%.
 

brad465

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According to this TicTok there's likely to be a government announcement on breaking the link Bryan electricity prices and gas prices next week:




Same video is also available on Facebook:

And here it is being reported ahead of an official announcement:


The government is to announce on Tuesday a plan to weaken the link between electricity and volatile gas prices, which it says will better protect consumers from energy shocks triggered by international conflicts.
The government wants some older renewable energy generators to move to fixed-price contracts, rather than the current system, which often pays them based on the variable price of gas.
It hopes this switch will take place within the next year, so that electricity prices would not be so prone to sudden rises in fossil fuel prices.
The government has not put a number on the savings but believes they could be "significant". The Conservatives said Labour's targets would raise bills.
The changes will be announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband in separate statements on Tuesday.
"For Britain and so many other countries, clean energy is now the only route to financial security, energy security and national security," Miliband will say in a speech.
He is expected to call for the government to "double down" on its clean power push, arguing that "our action must now be faster, deeper and more wide-ranging" in response to the war in the Middle East, as well as to tackle climate change.
Even though renewable energy is generating more electricity than ever before, the relatively cheap running costs of wind and solar are not fully reflected in people's bills.
That is partly because the price of electricity on the wholesale market is set, under the current system, by the last unit of electricity needed to meet demand at any given time.
In Britain, that last unit is often gas – which means that when gas prices spike, so do electricity bills.
The government has decided – for now – against revamping the entire system, with gas still playing an important role when the Sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing.
But the government wants to shift older, clean energy projects – which account for about one-third of Britain's electricity generation - on to fixed-price contracts.
That would bring them in line with more recent renewable energy developments, and analysts say it would better protect households against fossil fuel price spikes.

The government does not have a firm estimate for savings on bills, but says it is confident it will save people money.

The plans to weaken the link between electricity and gas prices will be subject to consultation, but the government believes the changes could be in place in about a year's time.

On Tuesday the chancellor could also announce increases to the so-called windfall tax on electricity generators, which was introduced in 2023. The tax applies to some generators with older renewable energy contracts, who would otherwise make large profits when gas prices spike.

The government hopes that the threat of a tax increase will incentivise these generators to make the voluntary switch to fixed-price contracts, which would not be taxed in this way.

Miliband will also announce plans to amend planning laws to make it easier for those without a driveway to charge electric cars and to enable more businesses to install solar panels.

In response, shadow energy secretary Claire Coutinho accused Miliband of "piling on cost after cost onto people's electricity bills", pointing to taxes and levies on bills on top of wholesale prices.

"If we want people to use electricity, then we need to make it cheap," she said.

Liberal Democrat energy spokesperson Pippa Heylings said the government should act and break the link between electricity and gas prices.

"We have consistently argued that if Britain is generating more and more cheap renewable electricity, households should feel the benefit in lower bills," she said.

Green Party energy spokesperson Carla Denyer said she was "relieved" to hear the plans but accused the government of being too slow to act.

"It is nearly two years since the election - two years in which they could have prevented a crisis like this rather than just respond to it," she said.

Plaid Cymru also welcomed the proposed changes but called for the government to go further.

"As long as electricity prices are tied to volatile gas markets, households and businesses will continue to pay the price," its energy spokesperson Llinos Medi said.

Reform UK and the SNP have been contacted for comment.

Northern Ireland is part of a separate energy market.
 

The Ham

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And here it is being reported ahead of an official announcement:


Thanks, an investing response from the Tories within that article:

In response, shadow energy secretary Claire Coutinho accused Miliband of "piling on cost after cost onto people's electricity bills", pointing to taxes and levies on bills on top of wholesale prices.

"If we want people to use electricity, then we need to make it cheap," she said.

As unless I'm living in a parallel universe to the Shadow Energy Secretary on the 1st April my electrify bill went down due to Labour taking levies off of the electricity bills. Also, assuming this works as expected it is also likely to reduce bills (i.e. the very end goal they want).

I'm not aware of any additional taxes or levies being added since the general election (although some, like the Climate Change Levy when applied to business bills, have seen a with inflation increase), happy for others to highlight any I've missed.

It's also out of kilter with the responses from the other opposition parties quoted (although I note Reform and the SNP were asked for comment which hadn't been received at the time of publication, which if they both have a similar tone to the Tories may alter this point, how've if only one, say SNP, align with the Tories and the other aligns withthe remaining opposition parties the point still stands) who, whilst wanting it go as far as possible in cutting the link, broadly welcome the announcement.
 

Snow1964

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A couple of news stories have been released at 7am today, eg

Of note to this forum is solar panels on railway embankments

Ministers are announcing plans to break the link between electricity and gas prices to protect households and businesses from gas price spikes.

In a speech on Tuesday, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is expected to outline measures to “double down not back down” on the shift to clean energy, including speeding up the rollout of renewables and electrifying heating and transport to get homes and businesses off fossil fuels.

These include expanding renewables on publicly owned land, including solar panels alongside railway lines, and making it easier for people to install green technology such as electric vehicle chargers when they do not have driveways.

 

Snow1964

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Formal Government announcement now released

  • Families across the country will be better protected from energy crises, as government moves to break link between gas and electricity prices.
  • New plans include long‑term fixed‑price contracts for renewables, protecting families when gas prices spike.
  • Immediate action to tax excess profits through the Electricity Generator Levy by raising the rate from 45% to 55%, ensuring an increased proportion of the extraordinary revenue generated when the gas price spikes is available to government to support businesses and households with the cost-of-living.
  • Comes as government doubles down on drive for clean, homegrown power with raft of measures to unlock public land, speed up planning and cut bills for families.

 

InTheEastMids

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Of note to this forum is solar panels on railway embankments
The announcement actually says:

Public land​

Driving forward plans to massively expand renewables across the Public Estate – including using brownfield land, industrial sites and railway sites to host solar panels and wind turbines. This could unlock up to 10 GW of capacity, even using only a fraction of government land, powering the equivalent of around 5 million homes.

I don't know what NR's studies have told them, but having done work on something similar, the conclusion we came to was that the moment you have any impacts on the operation of the infrastructure itself, it makes installation or maintenance looks quite costly and may struggle to look like an effective use of taxpayer funding.

More effective options that I'd be asking Network Rail about what they are/are not going to do would include
- Rooftop, where a bit of Google Earth time makes me think not much has been done, even where it's unlikely there's heritage issues (e.g. even brand new stations like Winslow do not seem to have any solar, which I find baffling)
- Redundant land that is, or can be fenced off from the railway and therefore developed as a conventional project, note this could include some quite big landholdings that are no longer in
- solar car ports, where there's a number of non-rail examples in the UK, but economics are more difficult due to the steelwork
- more ambitiously, perhaps solar could help the business case for platform canopies and waiting rooms
- Even more ambitiously, let's develop all the land still held for HS2 Ph2 into solar/wind farms. That'll please the Nimbies :D
 

jon0844

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Thanks, an investing response from the Tories within that article:



As unless I'm living in a parallel universe to the Shadow Energy Secretary on the 1st April my electrify bill went down due to Labour taking levies off of the electricity bills. Also, assuming this works as expected it is also likely to reduce bills (i.e. the very end goal they want).

I'm not aware of any additional taxes or levies being added since the general election (although some, like the Climate Change Levy when applied to business bills, have seen a with inflation increase), happy for others to highlight any I've missed.

It's also out of kilter with the responses from the other opposition parties quoted (although I note Reform and the SNP were asked for comment which hadn't been received at the time of publication, which if they both have a similar tone to the Tories may alter this point, how've if only one, say SNP, align with the Tories and the other aligns withthe remaining opposition parties the point still stands) who, whilst wanting it go as far as possible in cutting the link, broadly welcome the announcement.

Thanks to our PM, and Labour in general, being pathetic at communicating things to the public - we've allowed social media and American/Russian/Israeli funded bots to push narratives about increased taxes since Labour got in. People (well, more likely bots or foreigners posing as Brits) keep saying they're being taxed more now than ever in their lifetime and I keep wondering what all these new taxes are, but nevertheless it spreads and people believe it.

It's no wonder that the same people have been able to push and push that renewables are the cause of high energy prices too.
 

JamesT

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Thanks to our PM, and Labour in general, being pathetic at communicating things to the public - we've allowed social media and American/Russian/Israeli funded bots to push narratives about increased taxes since Labour got in. People (well, more likely bots or foreigners posing as Brits) keep saying they're being taxed more now than ever in their lifetime and I keep wondering what all these new taxes are, but nevertheless it spreads and people believe it.

It's no wonder that the same people have been able to push and push that renewables are the cause of high energy prices too.
Higher taxation is a fact. 2024 Budget - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rachel-reeves-budget-tax-rise-b2638355.html
Rachel Reeves gambled on a £40bn tax rise in Wednesday’s historic Budget in a bid to boost public services and grow the economy.
...
She announced a string of measures targeting the wealthy and the middle class, including:

Employers’ national insurance contributions to rise from 13.8 per cent to 15 per cent
Capital gains tax increased from 10 per cent to 18 per cent
Non-dom status abolished and replaced with a residency tax
Inheritance tax expanded to include pensions and farms
Stamp duty raised to 5 per cent for existing homeowners
2025 Budget - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c246npmq1n4o
Rachel Reeves has said she is "asking ordinary people to pay a little bit more" after unveiling £26bn of tax rises in a Budget that also saw her scrap the two-child benefit cap.

The chancellor extended a freeze on tax thresholds for an extra three years in a move that will drag millions into paying more tax.
 

quantinghome

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There must be quite a number of large redundant railway sites dotted around former coal mining areas which are (1) cheap and (2) easy to connect to the grid given their proximity to former power stations.
 

brad465

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Once again our lack of east-west rail routes is exposed as a strategic weakness...
A weakness perhaps in terms of rail capacity, but there are a numerically large number of them when it comes to physical solar installation locations, including some decent length ones like the GWML, WEML, the SEML east of Tonbridge, TransPennine route and of course EWR (I'd add the many Edinburgh-Glasgow routes, but this part of the world is not as sunny and already does well with wind power). I'd also say some routes like the SWML, GEML and WCML south of Birmingham/Stafford can still do well with SE/SW panel orientations.
 

HSTEd

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Formal Government announcement now released



Yet another set of tweaks to try and preserve the aesthetic of a 1990s electricity market, but without meaningfully preserving an electricity market.

Why bother with all of this if the prices will all be functionally set by state fiat regardless? Might as well just return to the previous vertically integrated monopoly which has advantages to offset the disadvantages. The Government's apporach will give us the worst of both worlds.

Generators will be forced to "voluntarily" sign disfavourable power purchase contracts, with failure to comply apparently being punished with confiscatory tax increases that are designed to destroy their business models.
 

jon0844

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A lot of that isn't impacting the ordinary man and woman on the street. Income tax, tax-free allowances, VAT and so on is unchanged. That's what most people seem to think has gone up massively.

We certainly do hear enough from the companies making millions or even billions moan about their NI contributions though, and farmers.
 

The Ham

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A lot of that isn't impacting the ordinary man and woman on the street. Income tax, tax-free allowances, VAT and so on is unchanged. That's what most people seem to think has gone up massively.

We certainly do hear enough from the companies making millions or even billions moan about their NI contributions though, and farmers.

Most of the complaints actually relate the minimum wage (£1,400 for 35 hours at minimum wage) increase rather tab the NI (£950), although admitting would be bad PR.
 

JamesT

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A lot of that isn't impacting the ordinary man and woman on the street. Income tax, tax-free allowances, VAT and so on is unchanged. That's what most people seem to think has gone up massively.

We certainly do hear enough from the companies making millions or even billions moan about their NI contributions though, and farmers.
Those allowances being unchanged do affect ordinary people. Fiscal drag pulls more people into higher bands of taxation.

One step removed, but the increases in costs of employment (of which NI is one), don't help if people are looking for work. Correlation isn't causation, but the employment market has certainly been tougher since those budgets.
 

jon0844

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Of course everything has an impact, but it's not the highest level of taxation and regulation in someone's lifetime. That's just right-wing nonsense spouted by organisations that are for small Government and the freedom to do whatever they want.
 

JamesT

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Of course everything has an impact, but it's not the highest level of taxation and regulation in someone's lifetime. That's just right-wing nonsense spouted by organisations that are for small Government and the freedom to do whatever they want.
The tax burden (i.e. the percentage of taxes versus GDP), is at its highest level since the second world war. That is a simple fact. It may be being shouted by those on the right wing, but that doesn't make it any less true.
In terms of regulations, how often do governments actually remove laws? Isn't the usual response of government to a problem to ban it? Dragging this back on topic, have the regulations governing building renewables got any simpler, or does every new requirement get layered on top?
I don't think it's necessarily the domain of small government enthusiasts to wonder if some of the bureaucracy is just for the sake of it, rather than doing anything worthwhile.
 

yorksrob

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The announcement actually says:


I don't know what NR's studies have told them, but having done work on something similar, the conclusion we came to was that the moment you have any impacts on the operation of the infrastructure itself, it makes installation or maintenance looks quite costly and may struggle to look like an effective use of taxpayer funding.

More effective options that I'd be asking Network Rail about what they are/are not going to do would include
- Rooftop, where a bit of Google Earth time makes me think not much has been done, even where it's unlikely there's heritage issues (e.g. even brand new stations like Winslow do not seem to have any solar, which I find baffling)
- Redundant land that is, or can be fenced off from the railway and therefore developed as a conventional project, note this could include some quite big landholdings that are no longer in
- solar car ports, where there's a number of non-rail examples in the UK, but economics are more difficult due to the steelwork
- more ambitiously, perhaps solar could help the business case for platform canopies and waiting rooms
- Even more ambitiously, let's develop all the land still held for HS2 Ph2 into solar/wind farms. That'll please the Nimbies :D

Network rail has a lot of car parks. Could solar farms be constructed over these ?
 

AndrewE

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The announcement actually says:


I don't know what NR's studies have told them, but having done work on something similar, the conclusion we came to was that the moment you have any impacts on the operation of the infrastructure itself, it makes installation or maintenance looks quite costly and may struggle to look like an effective use of taxpayer funding. :D
Even worse than the economics of trying to maintain pv alongside an operating railway I would try to alert people to the fall-out from wheel/rail wear.
It can be a really difficult grime to remove and I guess it would cut pv panel output dramatically. (It's nothing like as adhesive as the hot particles from cast iron brake blocks which used to weld themselves to paint, but it is still a dark-coloured deposit.)
It would be interesting to know what weight of rail steel has disappeared when the rails come to be replaced, maybe even Tonnes per mile - plus what has been released from the wear of wheelsets. Multiplied by the number of tracks as well, of course!
 

N1

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Network rail has a lot of car parks. Could solar farms be constructed over these ?
Some years ago (4 I think) I was working on a project at Stoke on Trent station. Avanti / Network Rail were working on a solar carport design at the same time which I needed to allow for. Dont think it ever got beyond GRIP 3 stage (pre-dated PACE), nothing happens quick on the railway. Main issue at Stoke was you would get the Route Asset Manager or engineer out for them to review the design, and there would always be something wrong with the station (urgent roof repairs, station glazing falling down etc.)
 

yorksrob

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Some years ago (4 I think) I was working on a project at Stoke on Trent station. Avanti / Network Rail were working on a solar carport design at the same time which I needed to allow for. Dont think it ever got beyond GRIP 3 stage (pre-dated PACE), nothing happens quick on the railway. Main issue at Stoke was you would get the Route Asset Manager or engineer out for them to review the design, and there would always be something wrong with the station (urgent roof repairs, station glazing falling down etc.)

Yes, SoT is a grand old station which requires a lot of TLC I imagine.
 

Bald Rick

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Network rail has a lot of car parks. Could solar farms be constructed over these ?

In scale terms it would be more of a solar allotment rather than a farm, but yes, subject to the usual planning permissons and DNO connection availability.
 

edwin_m

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Even worse than the economics of trying to maintain pv alongside an operating railway I would try to alert people to the fall-out from wheel/rail wear.
It can be a really difficult grime to remove and I guess it would cut pv panel output dramatically. (It's nothing like as adhesive as the hot particles from cast iron brake blocks which used to weld themselves to paint, but it is still a dark-coloured deposit.)
It would be interesting to know what weight of rail steel has disappeared when the rails come to be replaced, maybe even Tonnes per mile - plus what has been released from the wear of wheelsets. Multiplied by the number of tracks as well, of course!
The question would be how far these are from the tracks. From the installation/maintenance point of view they would definitely have to be far enough not to require track safety competencies, and I think this would also put them far enough away from the worst of the contamination.

I'm thinking the slopes of embankments or maybe cuttings would be the best sites, perhaps with a fence above them to delineate the railway danger zone. Unfortunately this would mean new cable routes for the power generated, rather than using any spare space in the lineside troughing. There are probably many other solar panel sites though, that are easier to tackle than those alongside a railway.
 

Elecman

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Some years ago (4 I think) I was working on a project at Stoke on Trent station. Avanti / Network Rail were working on a solar carport design at the same time which I needed to allow for. Dont think it ever got beyond GRIP 3 stage (pre-dated PACE), nothing happens quick on the railway.
Correct it died a death and wasn’t taken forward got a couple of reasons
 

Krokodil

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The tax burden (i.e. the percentage of taxes versus GDP), is at its highest level since the second world war. That is a simple fact. It may be being shouted by those on the right wing, but that doesn't make it any less true.
It predominantly falls on middle and high earners. For lower earners, UK taxes are incredibly low thanks to our very high Personal Allowance.
 

InTheEastMids

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There must be quite a number of large redundant railway sites dotted around former coal mining areas which are (1) cheap and (2) easy to connect to the grid given their proximity to former power stations.
...but probably not now in Network Rail ownership (if they ever were). Who Owns England got the entire NR priory portfolio in GIS format about 10y so and it doesn't look like they own a lot that isn't the operational railway.
Network rail has a lot of car parks. Could solar farms be constructed over these ?
Yes. It is not rocket science. Bentley in Crewe have had a very big system for several years now. They are mandatory in France for car parks over a certain size. But obviously it's a bit sunnier in France so the challenge in the UK has been the economics as it's a lot of steel to get these panels 3m or more off the ground...

Dont think it ever got beyond GRIP 3 stage
... Plus if there's a chance to suffocate things with process, it'll probably be taken. I expect there's a consultant telling NR that they need to spend 2y and a couple of hundred thousand writing rail standards for it all. Whereas SNCF has just been cracking on with it.
Unfortunately this would mean new cable routes for the power generated, rather than using any spare space in the lineside troughing
You put the wire through the fence, eg with an interface cabinet in the fence line for circuit breakers. The issues are not likely boring practical things like vandalism, vegetation growth and so on which kill of sites that are small and/or remote
 

The Ham

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You put the wire through the fence, eg with an interface cabinet in the fence line for circuit breakers. The issues are not likely boring practical things like vandalism, vegetation growth and so on which kill of sites that are small and/or remote

Which leads to the question, could NR create a solar fence which could be maintained from either side (potentially very useful for sites where there's a road along the boundary).

If the panels are sat 0.8m from ground level that should reduce the need for as much vegetation trimming (especially if the road isn't on the north side of the fence).

You could even create a design where they sit on the south side (in a cutting) where the lower 600mm is used to create a flat area for access with the planes acting as a second fence line to limit trespass. This would also reduce the risk of landslide and being a standard design could be fairly cheap to implement (standard gravel boards are used by many house builders to create s step between properties of 600mm).

The complex element would be designing a 1.8m long mounting unit to hold the 1.7m long solar panels in a way which means that they can easily be skid into the fence parts but with a way to secure them to stop them being the next target for theft.
 

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