Grand Central apply for Newcastle - Brighton direct

[FGWHST43009]

With all such services the main market is likely to be people doing various segments of the overall route rather than doing anything even as much as 50% of the distance, let alone the whole way.

However, there will be some, and if they are doing so due to price (I.e. advanced ticket) they wouldn't be getting in the next train whatever the route, unless there's disruption and then chances are going the same route may not be an option.

Likewise, going direct can be useful. As you just sit in your seat and (mostly) stay there until you get to the other end.

I suspect that there's probably even other reasons.

Direct services are rather useful. I've used daily Cardiff-Edinburgh XC service and its southbound counterpart a few times for Cardiff-Newcastle and Newcastle-Cardiff. Whenever I've been on that service (albeit few times), there have been a few others in the same coach making similar journeys. Some go the full way because of the convenience of going direct. It probably also gets a good number going to or from York, Leeds and Sheffield. The only issue I have is that the northbound service is considerably slower than the southbound service, but nonetheless it is a useful service

 

[stadler]

I’m guessing because we haven’t heard anything that December 2026 opening is very unlikely, if the paths are actually granted.
It’s a shame, I would’ve liked the direct service from Birmingham to Brighton without needing to change in London, and having a direct link to Gatwick Airport from the north east would’ve been pretty cool.

I doubt it will be approved. Brighton Main Line is a very busy two track railway with very few spare paths. I doubt they want extra odd services to complicate the line and risk more chance of delays.

 

[Howardh]

I doubt it will be approved. Brighton Main Line is a very busy two track railway with very few spare paths. I doubt they want extra odd services to complicate the line and risk more chance of delays.

Fair point, I doubt due to the distance involved the proposed service would need those paths at peak hours, so would there be availability outside peak times?

 

[JonathanH]

Fair point, I doubt due to the distance involved the proposed service would need those paths at peak hours, so would there be availability outside peak times?

Their proposed timetable envisages occupying a platform in Brighton in the evening peak, that isn't available. There are plenty of concerns raised by GTR about the impact of through services on te Brighton line.

https://www.orr.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2026-01/gcrc-newcastle-brighton-industry-consultation-responses.pdf

Govia Thameslink Railway Limited have reviewed your application in detail and have the following comments
and observations:
1. We have assessed the timetable impact of sample Grand Central paths, specifically between Redhill and
Brighton. We have made assumptions regarding the working timetable given the limited detail. Attached is a
summary of the main issues that have been found with each path.
a. We have assumed that these trains will use the slow lines between Redhill and Balcombe Tunnel Jn
in both directions.
b. In general, there are some significant issues with all paths south of Gatwick to and from Brighton,
with the section between Redhill and Gatwick being less problematic but not free from issue either.
c. GTR is particularly concerned that southbound paths have been timetabled between out 9T
(Bedford to Brighton) and 9S (Cambridge to Brighton) therefore forcing a later arrival of 9S at
Brighton. This will extend the journey time of our 9S Cambridge to Brighton in the hours where the
GC train operates and will reduce turnaround times at Brighton. In the northbound direction at
1139, this path is precisely on top of an existing Gatwick Express path departing at 1139.
d. Platforming of Grand Central trains at Brighton will need a significant number of changes to GTR
services, especially with layovers from 1617 to 1747 and 1820 to 2046. We don’t believe a platform
exists to accommodate Grand Central trains in the evening.
e. There are also inconsistencies in running times e.g. 1Z06 has 20 minutes Brighton to Haywards
Heath, 1Z08 has 11 minutes Haywards Heath to Gatwick the latter is impossible to achieve.
f. There is a lot of work required to enable compliant paths before any performance considerations
are factored in.
2. We have assessed the performance impact of sample Grand Central paths.
a. Given the work required to deconflict the timetable, this is likely to place additional pressures on
Brighton Main Line performance. Whilst we have not undertaken any modelling at this stage, we
would encourage Arriva to ensure the train paths are compliant against the planned December 2025
timetable and assess performance against it.
b. The assertion that GC are unused and vacant capacity doesn’t appear to be the case south of Redhill
with many other train schedules needing to be flexed to accommodate.
c. The current Gatwick Airport-Reading paths are poor and unreliable exporting significant delays to
the Redhill corridor, BML and wider GTR and National Rail network. Additional trains on this route
would make a bad situation worse. Redhill is an area of constraint with a high number of
southbound reversals and is often an area for reactionary delay.
d. The BML is a key area of focus to ensure on-time presentation to the Thameslink Core and is critical
to other arteries (MML / ECML) so adding further links with other routes are likely to degrade this
position further.
e. The intended fleet to be used is of concern, class 180 units are not known for their reliability [any
fleet comment?]

 

[Starmill]

Their proposed timetable envisages occupying a platform in Brighton in the evening peak, that isn't available. There are plenty of concerns raised by GTR about the impact of through services on te Brighton line.

https://www.orr.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2026-01/gcrc-newcastle-brighton-industry-consultation-responses.pdf

I did think that was very poorly drafted to be honest. The point about 180s is an unevidenced conjecture that looks half-finished. Although I don't disagree with it one bit, it has to be read in that context. There's no attempt to explain what's "poor" about the GWR services, much less evidence it.

Nonetheless there is no chance of anything like the draft schedules being offered so I wouldn't worry about any of it. It's absolutely not going to happen in that format.

 

[Mgameing123]

Agreed. Can’t see how this is going to create many new travel opportunities or attract people from other modes of transport.

Also, plenty of scope for services to be delayed here given the multiple complex junctions… will be an interesting one for Network Rail to timetable, if the application ever gets that far in the approval process.

Oxford to Gatwick Airport direct, Reading and North Downs to Brighton direct. Intercity trains back to Brighton? It's definitely going to win some customers who just want a direct train.

 

[weeklycommuter]

Oxford to Gatwick Airport direct, Reading and North Downs to Brighton direct. Intercity trains back to Brighton? It's definitely going to win some customers who just want a direct train.

AIUI GWR previously considered extending their Gatwick Airport to Reading services to Oxford but there is surely no capacity South of Three Bridges to extend North Downs services to Brighton. For this reason even if paths are found on the rest of the proposed route I cannot see the Office of Rail and Road approving the Grand Central application. It is academic that a new direct train service would attract customers if there are no available paths to run it.

 

[The exile]

Oxford to Gatwick Airport direct,

Clearly there will be some people for whom a direct Oxford - Gatwick service would be very convenient but it’s hardly likely to be a massive number, given that few have the luxury of choosing their flight times to suit an infrequent train service.

 

[JamesT]

Clearly there will be some people for whom a direct Oxford - Gatwick service would be very convenient but it’s hardly likely to be a massive number, given that few have the luxury of choosing their flight times to suit an infrequent train service.

There’s the existing coach service if you want to get on public transport in Oxford and not have to move till Gatwick.

 

[Zomboid]

For Oxford specifically there is also the hourly coach which runs 24 hours a day. It does take 2 hours and run via Heathrow, but a much more useful frequency than 5 times a day or whatever it is.

 

[Topological]

Clearly there will be some people for whom a direct Oxford - Gatwick service would be very convenient but it’s hardly likely to be a massive number, given that few have the luxury of choosing their flight times to suit an infrequent train service.

Not suggesting for a second that you would, but in theory could the Reading - Gatwick use the dive under at the East end of Reading and then use the higher platforms before taking the reliefs to Didcot?

Given the Oxford-Didcot, it is only Didcot-Reading that does not currently have stock allocated.

I cannot see why you would try to add more services, especially not Open Access.

 

[The exile]

There’s the existing coach service if you want to get on public transport in Oxford and not have to move till Gatwick.

Exactly though as has been noted many times before, trains are better at getting people out of their cars than buses / coaches are. An occasional through train service from Oxford to Gatwick is going to provide an infinitesimally small incentive to get people out of their cars.

 

[zwk500]

Not suggesting for a second that you would, but in theory could the Reading - Gatwick use the dive under at the East end of Reading and then use the higher platforms before taking the reliefs to Didcot?

In theory yes, but the 13 & 14 are used basically constantly for Elizabeth line trains, so you'd be mainly focusing on 12 and 15 with the other RL services, and then there's the freight joining at Reading West Jn as well as the fact that trains from Oxford to Gatwick are fine, but trains from Gatwick to Oxford would be limited to a flat crossing and using platform 13-15 so would have a very small set of windows to fit through.

 

[Zomboid]

The dive under doesn't have access to 12, but trains towards Oxford could use the connection to the down fast and use the other grade separated fast to slow connection at the west of the station.

 

[zwk500]

The dive under doesn't have access to 12, but trains towards Oxford could use the connection to the down fast and use the other grade separated fast to slow connection at the west of the station.

True, or indeed just run FL to Didcot. Also all connections between GWML and SW lines at Reading are not electrified, although this would only be a problem if the hope had been to wait until Oxford was electrified and then use existing dual-voltage units.

 

[The Ham]

For Oxford specifically there is also the hourly coach which runs 24 hours a day. It does take 2 hours and run via Heathrow, but a much more useful frequency than 5 times a day or whatever it is.

From the website:

Oxford To Gatwick Bus - the airline

Book now for our direct luxury coaches that take you faster between Oxford, High Wycombe and Gatwick. Departing up to every 60 minutes.

www.theairline.co.uk

Oxford to Gatwick South Terminal – 2 hours 15 minutes to 2 hours 50 minutes
Oxford to Gatwick North Terminal – an additional 10 mins from Gatwick South Terminal

Likewise, from National Express:

National Express Route LGW, Oxford to Gatwick Airport (North) — National Express Timetables

timetables.nationalexpress.com

Oxford 12:30
Gatwick South 15:15
Gatwick North 15:25

(During the middle of the night it's sightly quicker at 2:12)

In comparison the direct train service is likely to be around 1:45 with limited stops between Reading and Gatwick.

Whist 5 trains a day is on average one every 3 hours and so quite a gap between services, it's not entirely unlikely that someone could be happy to turn up with more time at the airport booked on a train knowing that if the train doesn't turn up they can go and talk to someone and due to the conditions of carriage be likely put into a taxi at no extra charge to them.

 

[Topological]

In theory yes, but the 13 & 14 are used basically constantly for Elizabeth line trains, so you'd be mainly focusing on 12 and 15 with the other RL services, and then there's the freight joining at Reading West Jn as well as the fact that trains from Oxford to Gatwick are fine, but trains from Gatwick to Oxford would be limited to a flat crossing and using platform 13-15 so would have a very small set of windows to fit through.

I use Reading a bit as someone who goes to Heathrow from Swansea and does not really want to pay to go via Paddington. There is usually one of 13 or 14 free to run through. So it could work.

I dont think you would do it as the connection at Reading is pretty straightforward from Oxford trains onto the Gatwick.

Maybe if Gatwick expands use of the diveunder would be something to explore more seriously (or indeed Gatwick to Oxford using the Western dive under.

You could therefore have an hourly train that might encourage modal shift.

None of this makes a case for an open access operator doing a few trains a day out of pattern.

 

[VItraveller]

I think you’re underestimating the Birmingham to Brighton potential market, of course it’s difficult to determine suppressed demand but I would say that more people would rather go to Brighton Beach than Bournemouth Beach If given the chance without needing to change in London, and Bournemouth of course has an hourly service from Birmingham.
besides which, a direct service from Birmingham to Gatwick could be useful for those catching flights from there.

 

[The Planner]

I think you’re underestimating the Birmingham to Brighton potential market, of course it’s difficult to determine suppressed demand but I would say that more people would rather go to Brighton Beach than Bournemouth Beach If given the chance without needing to change in London, and Bournemouth of course has an hourly service from Birmingham.
besides which, a direct service from Birmingham to Gatwick could be useful for those catching flights from there.

This is all tenuous though, and if XC reinstate all their Reading paths, it goes nowhere anyway.

 

[The exile]

From the website:

Oxford To Gatwick Bus - the airline

Book now for our direct luxury coaches that take you faster between Oxford, High Wycombe and Gatwick. Departing up to every 60 minutes.

www.theairline.co.uk

Likewise, from National Express:

National Express Route LGW, Oxford to Gatwick Airport (North) — National Express Timetables

timetables.nationalexpress.com

Oxford 12:30
Gatwick South 15:15
Gatwick North 15:25

(During the middle of the night it's sightly quicker at 2:12)

In comparison the direct train service is likely to be around 1:45 with limited stops between Reading and Gatwick.

Whist 5 trains a day is on average one every 3 hours and so quite a gap between services, it's not entirely unlikely that someone could be happy to turn up with more time at the airport booked on a train knowing that if the train doesn't turn up they can go and talk to someone and due to the conditions of carriage be likely put into a taxi at no extra charge to them.

No - but risking just missing one after a delayed arrival at the airport is rather more off putting!

 

[zwk500]

I think you’re underestimating the Birmingham to Brighton potential market, of course it’s difficult to determine suppressed demand but I would say that more people would rather go to Brighton Beach than Bournemouth Beach If given the chance without needing to change in London, and Bournemouth of course has an hourly service from Birmingham.

I'm not convinced there's a big seasider market from Birmingham to Brighton. Bournemouth has a much nicer sandy beach than Brighton's shingle, and on any day worth being by the seaside Brighton will already be full with Londoners before the first train has departed Birmingham New Street.

It would be interesting to know what loadings were like on XC services to Bournemouth vs Brighton when the Brighton route still had reasonably good timings achieved. Comparisons of the very end of service probably aren't very fair as the capacity crunches in the London area presumably slowed down the Brighton services substantially.

besides which, a direct service from Birmingham to Gatwick could be useful for those catching flights from there.

I would expect Gatwick to be behind Birmingham, Heathrow, Luton, Manchester, and Stansted as the airport of use for residents of the West Midlands. Would be interesting to see some stats on it though.

 

[Bald Rick]

It's definitely going to win some customers who just want a direct train.

ans how many customers would be lost from the trains that potentially have to be removed to fit these ones in?

I think you’re underestimating the Birmingham to Brighton potential market, of course it’s difficult to determine suppressed demand but I would say that more people would rather go to Brighton Beach than Bournemouth Beach If given the chance without needing to change in London, and Bournemouth of course has an hourly service from Birmingham.
besides which, a direct service from Birmingham to Gatwick could be useful for those catching flights from there.

Anecdote: I lived in Birmingham for a while, and know many people who still do. Not once did I, or any people I knew, consider Brighton as a beach destination, and that includes when there were direct trains.

 

[Mgameing123]

I'm not convinced there's a big seasider market from Birmingham to Brighton. Bournemouth has a much nicer sandy beach than Brighton's shingle, and on any day worth being by the seaside Brighton will already be full with Londoners before the first train has departed Birmingham New Street.

It would be interesting to know what loadings were like on XC services to Bournemouth vs Brighton when the Brighton route still had reasonably good timings achieved. Comparisons of the very end of service probably aren't very fair as the capacity crunches in the London area presumably slowed down the Brighton services substantially.

I would expect Gatwick to be behind Birmingham, Heathrow, Luton, Manchester, and Stansted as the airport of use for residents of the West Midlands. Would be interesting to see some stats on it though.

Well we don't know what market Brighton has when getting to Brighton is a nightmare.

 

[Snow1964]

What exactly happening with this at ORR, the opening post of the thread says application made by 25 April 2025

We are now just 3 days short of a year, I realise it's not a not a quick tick box validation that can be done in hours, and need to gather some comments from others, but why is ORR taking a whole year to give what is ultimately a simply yay or nay answer.

 

[Zomboid]

The answer is simple, but the question isn't.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 Apr 2026 ==

Well we don't know what market Brighton has when getting to Brighton is a nightmare.

Brighton does quite well enough with the population who can get to it easily, I don't think it's crying out for occasional trainloads from the west midlands.

Though where do people from that part of the world go if they want to see the sea? It's not close in any direction.

 

[Bald Rick]

Though where do people from that part of the world go if they want to see the sea? It's not close in any direction.

Not Brighton. Typically Weston, Somerset, Devon, South and North Wales.

 

[SECR 65]

Given that Southern run peak extra services from the East and West Coastways to London Bridge, presumably there must be some spare paths in the south section of the BML off-peak?

 

[Bald Rick]

Given that Southern run peak extra services from the East and West Coastways to London Bridge, presumably there must be some spare paths in the south section of the BML off-peak?

Not reliably.

 

[class26]

Not Brighton. Typically Weston, Somerset, Devon, South and North Wales.

I lived in brum for 30 years and Weston SM was the seaside destination of choice usually

 

[zwk500]

Given that Southern run peak extra services from the East and West Coastways to London Bridge, presumably there must be some spare paths in the south section of the BML off-peak?

Theres freight to Ardingly and Newhaven, NR departmental test/inspection trains that need that capacity as well.