Realistic outlook for new lines in London

[cle]

But the Metropolitan line through Harrow is parallelled by the Overground line - Wembley, Kenton, Harrow & Wealdstone, Hatch End for Pinner etc, so people from those areas of Met. Line stations (Wembley Park, Northwick Park, Harrow on the Hill, Pinner etc) can access Watford Junction from them. The more inconvenient journeys which require a change anyway such as the Uxbridge Line or Rickmansworth and north to Watford High St or Watford Junction are unlikely to be that that large a flow to justify the capital spend required.
The scheme was a nice to have, but surely hardly a priority in the nation's improvement to rail services. TfL couldn't afford it, and certainly Hertfordshire couldn't either.

I don't disagree that it isn't nationally critical. But it did have benefits and would have added network connectivity, and placemaking (and potential for lots of homes, Watford has already grown a fair bit with developments - as I said it's very well connected and there are a lot of diverse job opportunities nearby - as well as v quick to London). Would have made some sense... but yes it's super competitive and Herts certainly would need to do a better deal with TfL. Or bring some developers onboard. Or attract a Science Park, as is the way. Maybe one day.

 

[Mikey C]

But the Metropolitan line through Harrow is parallelled by the Overground line - Wembley, Kenton, Harrow & Wealdstone, Hatch End for Pinner etc, so people from those areas of Met. Line stations (Wembley Park, Northwick Park, Harrow on the Hill, Pinner etc) can access Watford Junction from them. The more inconvenient journeys which require a change anyway such as the Uxbridge Line or Rickmansworth and north to Watford High St or Watford Junction are unlikely to be that that large a flow to justify the capital spend required.
The scheme was a nice to have, but surely hardly a priority in the nation's improvement to rail services. TfL couldn't afford it, and certainly Hertfordshire couldn't either.

Exactly. Obviously all schemes will generate some benefit, and the Met extension would have benefited some people, but it's hardly a game changer for NW London. Watford is hardly a super important regional centre, when you're a London borough with direct trains into the City and West End. I'm sure the vast majority of people in Harrow never go there regularly.

 

[Magdalia]

I want to understand your outlook on the key 3 current projects in London: DLR to Thamesmead, West London Orbital and Bakerloo line extension, as well as a few more speculative ones. I propose the following categories depending on when you would expect the official go ahead: 2020s, 2030s, 2040s and “not in our lifetime”

The list of projects is as follows:
1. DLR to Thamesmead

Thamesmead was in the Budget today see here from the Budget Report:

3.48 The government welcomes confirmation that London will deliver the DLR extension to Thamesmead, funded through Transport for London (TfL) and Greater London Authority (GLA) borrowing. The majority of the costs will be met by TFL and GLA, with the government also contributing over the long term. The government will continue to work with London to finalise funding details and will continue to work with the GLA to look at options for innovative financing to support the delivery of infrastructure projects in the capital.

 

[Thirteen]

WLO probably will happen next as it's quite cost effective although it doesn't unlock housing unlike with the DLR extension and BLE.

 

[Mikey C]

WLO probably will happen next as it's quite cost effective although it doesn't unlock housing unlike with the DLR extension and BLE.

To me the West London Orbital is, to an extent, a solution looking for a problem. If the track didn't exist, nobody would look to build a railway running along that route.

Of course as the tracks are there, there is a logic that they should be used more, but it's not really a step change for London like the Bakerloo Line extension would be.

 

[renegademaster]

I don't see any of the tram extensions ever happening unless cars get heavily restricted so that congestion becomes no longer an issue.
The easy routes have already been done and most of the proposed routes depend too heavily on street running to not be painfully slow, expensive buses.

 

[Thirteen]

The Sutton Link's biggest hurdle is not the cost but the disruption to roads, I wonder if a Superloop from Sutton to Wimbledon would be better.

I wonder if the news of tourist tax in London may enable these big ticket projects to happen?

 

[stuu]

Watford is hardly a super important regional centre, when you're a London borough with direct trains into the City and West End. I'm sure the vast majority of people in Harrow never go there regularly.

It is, or at least it was when I lived there until ~2010. Loads of people travelled to Watford for work and for shopping, the traffic on the roads between the two was horrendous, as in walking speed the whole way sometimes. I know the shopping centre has lost some of it's appeal so maybe the demand is lower these days but it definitely used to be significant

 

[Sad Sprinter]

To me the West London Orbital is, to an extent, a solution looking for a problem. If the track didn't exist, nobody would look to build a railway running along that route.

Of course as the tracks are there, there is a logic that they should be used more, but it's not really a step change for London like the Bakerloo Line extension would be.

Would be if it actually connected with crossrail

 

[kevin_roche]

Ian Visits reports:

Plans for the proposed West London Orbital railway linking Hendon and Hounslow have taken a step forward after £6.65 million was secured to progress the next stage of planning.

The newly agreed funding will support the next phase of development work, including the design of stations and other infrastructure, operational modelling and preparation for a public consultation expected in 2026.

The project’s backers say the new rail link could support the construction of more than 25,000 homes and 11,500 jobs, while encouraging a shift away from car use by enabling an estimated 650,000 fewer car trips each year. The improved connectivity would also strengthen access to the future Old Oak Common transport hub, which will link HS2 with the Elizabeth line and other rail services.

https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/article...ailway-plans-take-another-step-forward-87999/

 

[Recessio]

If we're going to be absolute crayonista's, I'd love to see the Northern line extended from Morden under the A24 to North Cheam (TfL still own a large plot of land there, the Sports Ground, that could be used as a station) via Morden South and Stonecot Hill.

However, it's never going to happen. Which, given the terrible PTAL ratings for most the route to North Cheam, and that most people along the A24 corridor just take buses straight up into Morden for the Northern line anyway, I'm surprised TfL are so dead against it.

Croxley Rail Link is dead too. I think there's more chance of that becoming part of the Hertfordshire Essex Rapid Transport (HERT) system, but given there's been no news about that project in over a year, again I doubt we'd see it anytime soon.

 

[BritishGuy54]

1. DLR to Thamesmead - 2030s
2. WLO - 2030s
3. BLE - Mid 2030s - early 2040s
4. Crossrail 2 - 2050s ha!
5. Southern rail approach to Heathrow: Elizabeth to Staines late 2030s; full on Southern access project: whenever the expansion happens
6. Croxley link - never, unfortunately, unless Herts find cash.
7. Northern Line extension to Clapham Junction - 2050s, if the split happens.
8. Tramlink to Sutton - can't decide.

I'll add
9. DLR Barking Riverside & Dagenham Dock - I can't see how doubling housing for this area can only rely on the Goblin and I think TfL are going to have to wake up on this. So dare I say, late 2030s-mid 2040s.
10. Barking Riverside - Abbey Wood - 2050s. It's bloody obvious and never should've been built on a viaduct
11. Parisian style orbital Tram lines - 2050s onwards
12. CrossRiver Trams - 2050-60s (should've happened a decade ago).
13. Elizabeth Line Dartford - 2050s

1. DLR to Thamesmead will likely occur in the early 2030’s.
2. WLO (Dudding Line) added to Overground in the 2030’s.
3. BLE to Lewisham in the late 2030’s, and to Hayes in the mid 2040’s.
4. Crossrail 2 in the 2060’s, oof.
5. Heathrow Rail to the south, maybe.
6. Croxley link never goes ahead.
7. Northern line to Clapham Junction, eventually. Maybe 2050’s.
8. Sutton tramlink up in the air.

9. DLR to Barking Riverside & Dagenham Dock, will end up being integrated into a brand new DLR section between Beckton/Romford and Bexley. First phase (Bexley-Beckton) in late 2030’s, second phase (Abbey Wood-Romford) in the 2040’s.
10. Overground will never go to Abbey Wood as the previous proposal does allow interchange to Abbey Wood. Despite that, Castle Green station will still open in the 2030’s out of nowhere.
11/12. Tramlines, maybe, IDK.
13. Elizabeth line to Dartford 2050’s.
14. Northern Inners get incorporated to the Overground in late 2020’s.

 

[TrenHotel]

9. DLR to Barking Riverside & Dagenham Dock, will end up being integrated into a brand new DLR section between Beckton/Romford and Bexley. First phase (Bexley-Beckton) in late 2030’s, second phase (Abbey Wood-Romford) in the 2040’s.

Bexley? It'd be good if you can clarify - it sounds like you're suggesting a DLR line through Bexleyheath or Crayford to Bexley.

 

[BritishGuy54]

Bexley? It'd be good if you can clarify - it sounds like you're suggesting a DLR line through Bexleyheath or Crayford to Bexley.

My suggestion would be a new DLR service between Beckton/Romford and Bexley via Bexleyheath.

It would probably go as follows:

• Romford
• Rush Green
• Eastbrook
• Dagenham East
• Dagenham Park
• Dagenham Dock
• Goresbrook
• Barking Riverside
• Thamesmead
• Southmere
• Abbey Wood
• Bostal Hill
• Bostal Heath
• Bexleyheath
• Bexleyheath Broadway
• Hall Place
• Bexley

It might need to be tweaked, but that’s how I can see an eastern branch of the DLR going.

 

[Cambus731]

I am aware that it’s been discussed in other threads, but I do feel that the Bromley North line should be incorporated in an extension of London Tramlink.

 

[Recessio]

I am aware that it’s been discussed in other threads, but I do feel that the Bromley North line should be incorporated in an extension of London Tramlink.

Extended onwards from Beckenham Junction? Is that feasible (I'm not familiar with the road layout in the area). I think there's been other proposals to either extend the DLR from Lewisham, and some crayonista efforts at another branch of the Bakerloo (so it would take over the Hayes/Beckenham Junction as planned, and also have a second branch from Lewisham to Bromley North). I feel like the DLR is probably the most likely/least unlikely of the lot though.

 

[Cambus731]

Extended onwards from Beckenham Junction? Is that feasible (I'm not familiar with the road layout in the area). I think there's been other proposals to either extend the DLR from Lewisham, and some crayonista efforts at another branch of the Bakerloo (so it would take over the Hayes/Beckenham Junction as planned, and also have a second branch from Lewisham to Bromley North). I feel like the DLR is probably the most likely/least unlikely of the lot though.

Yes, it has been discussed on here. The consensus seemed to be that it could be extended from Beckenham Junction past Shortlands station then up Beckenham Lane To Bromley town centre. It is uphill but a tram could handle it. The incline is similar to that in Rochdale between the tram terminus and the railway station.

 

[Instinct04]

I think in London, Crossrail 2 would have the biggest impact, with that we can extend the Northern Line to Clapham Junction, finally split the line into 2 and of course, 4 track the West Anglia Main Line.

Without this, the growth of the Meridian Water development and the Stansted Express cannot happen. I cannot stress enough how essential WAML 4 tracking is.

The real priority should be improving connectivity in Outer London boroughs like Havering.

Outer London connectivity is incredibly poor. The 1st superloop phase did nothing for residents in Barnet, Enfield, Chingford and Romford. It simply does not go out far enough.

Enfield Town, and the surrounding area (Southbury, Ponders End, Lower Edmonton, Enfield Highway etc) is so badly connected to East London. A bus running every 20 - 30 minutes providing the only link along the lea valley road is not good enough.

I have been on route 313 several times where the buses are packed out, and too often bunching which leaves 40 minute gaps. Yet, in North West and West London connectivity between suburbs have improved.

 

[TrenHotel]

My suggestion would be a new DLR service between Beckton/Romford and Bexley via Bexleyheath.

It would probably go as follows:

• Romford
• Rush Green
• Eastbrook
• Dagenham East
• Dagenham Park
• Dagenham Dock
• Goresbrook
• Barking Riverside
• Thamesmead
• Southmere
• Abbey Wood
• Bostal Hill
• Bostal Heath
• Bexleyheath
• Bexleyheath Broadway
• Hall Place
• Bexley

It might need to be tweaked, but that’s how I can see an eastern branch of the DLR going.

Thank you - often City Hall will say "Bexley" when they really mean Belvedere or Erith as they don't really understand that borough, so I appreciate the clarification.

 

[brad465]

Some extra things I’d like to see include:
-Victoria line extension southbound beyond Brixton;

In my fantasy I'd extend this all the way to at least Bromley - the link already points towards Herne Hill; if it's extended all the way down the Chatham mainline to Bromley South, with stations mimicking the metro stations on the Orpington services, then I would close all the above ground stations except Herne Hill, Beckenham Jct and Shortlands (to maintain interchanges). This would increase capacity for more faster SE services, including retaining some Orpington services on an effective semi-fast pattern into Victoria, while the Vicky line gives the metro area a much enhanced frequency into Victoria.

 

[Mikey C]

If I had a big pot of gold to spend, I wouldn't extend the Victoria Line until I've first rebuilt key Central London platforms and stations like Oxford Circus and Green Park, which already can't cope with the numbers.

Massively expensive and disruptive, but it's the platforms and stations which are restricting the numbers who can use it, as it takes an eternity to clear the platforms.

 

[cle]

Bakerloo to Hayes and Beckenham to me would be hugely transformational. It would put a ton of new areas on the tube, would not be slower overall for many - and create a lot of new connections and hubs. It's also the tube line with the most capacity, and in sync with being desperate for new trains. No brainer. I think it would be hugely popular. And the new straight bits between E&C and Lewisham would be very nippy. And it clears up a valuable 4tph each way through London Bridge for frequency to other SE services - two fasts, and two via Lewisham.

Northern line to Clapham Junction - with a station at the northern side by the Overground, to give tube access to Battersea proper. I think many would stay on their trains vs change at CJ, especially on the busier Southern and Wimbledon side - - - - Windsor lines assemble! ----- and with the upgrades (split, Camden) to 30tph or so, could handle it comfortably. The Charing Cross branch does have capacity too.

Victoria line to Chingford - I'm not 100% convinced on this one - and could be 12tph or so with a rebuild at Walthamstow, as over-supply - but I do wonder if taking 4tph off the WA lines would be useful to redeploy - if they even could be. Clapton would be a tricky one though.

 

[The Ham]

5. Heathrow Rail to the south, maybe.

It depends, if its truly funded privately (although I believe that could be a bit of fudge, in that there's some potential ongoing government costs) then it could happen at any time.

One area where it could pushed through is if the third runway has a requirement for extra public transport.

 

[Instinct04]

Victoria line to Chingford - I'm not 100% convinced on this one - and could be 12tph or so with a rebuild at Walthamstow, as over-supply - but I do wonder if taking 4tph off the WA lines would be useful to redeploy - if they even could be. Clapton would be a tricky one though.

The northern/eastern end of the Victoria Line is crowded enough as it is. Extending to Chingford would only cause more problems. I do think that an extension to Woodford or Leytonstone would be useful, though unlikely.

I’d rather the hall farm curve be rebuilt and a new bay platform built at Stratford to allow an additional 2-4tph from there to Chingford.

 

[renegademaster]

Yes, it has been discussed on here. The consensus seemed to be that it could be extended from Beckenham Junction past Shortlands station then up Beckenham Lane To Bromley town centre. It is uphill but a tram could handle it. The incline is similar to that in Rochdale between the tram terminus and the railway station.

The issue is that it will just be stuck in traffic the whole time and theirs not an easy way to reroute traffic like what happened with Addisscombe road. Especially considering Superloop is a thing now and they'll be a faster route for end to end passengers

 

[DynamicSpirit]

If I had a big pot of gold to spend, I wouldn't extend the Victoria Line until I've first rebuilt key Central London platforms and stations like Oxford Circus and Green Park, which already can't cope with the numbers.

Massively expensive and disruptive, but it's the platforms and stations which are restricting the numbers who can use it, as it takes an eternity to clear the platforms.

Could the trains cope with the extra numbers if you rebuilt the platforms? From what I've seen when I've used the Victoria line, the trains are typically already rammed, and with trains so frequent that the next one is often arriving practically as soon as the previous one has pulled out of the station, there's unlikely to be any scope to increase frequencies.

 

[Recessio]

Could the trains cope with the extra numbers if you rebuilt the platforms? From what I've seen when I've used the Victoria line, the trains are typically already rammed, and with trains so frequent that the next one is often arriving practically as soon as the previous one has pulled out of the station, there's unlikely to be any scope to increase frequencies.

This might be naive (mis)understanding on my part, but if the tph remains the same, then the newer trains would be further back along the extension: so wouldn't the flow of passengers exiting the Central London station remain the same? (especially if a lot of people that would be served by this extension currently take buses to Brixton or NR trains to Victoria and join the Victoria line there anyway? )

 

[DynamicSpirit]

This might be naive (mis)understanding on my part, but if the tph remains the same, then the newer trains would be further back along the extension: so wouldn't the flow of passengers exiting the Central London station remain the same? (especially if a lot of people that would be served by this extension currently take buses to Brixton or NR trains to Victoria and join the Victoria line there anyway? )

I think it would have some impact. In my experience, Victoria line trains are essentially rammed north of Victoria. If you extended the line to Croydon, you'd (obviously) attract a lot of new passengers travelling from destinations between Croydon and Brixton into central London. It seems reasonable to presume that a significant number of those will travel beyond Victoria, and so will add more passengers to the already-rammed trains.

 

[cle]

The northern/eastern end of the Victoria Line is crowded enough as it is. Extending to Chingford would only cause more problems. I do think that an extension to Woodford or Leytonstone would be useful, though unlikely.

I’d rather the hall farm curve be rebuilt and a new bay platform built at Stratford to allow an additional 2-4tph from there to Chingford.

Maybe 2tph Chingford-Stratford and 2tph Chingford-Liverpool St would be a good mix. The former would of course bring many connections, and Crossrail/DLR/Jubilee options... probably a similar journey time to TCR and quicker to Canary Wharf.

And then 2tph are freed up to send up to Tottenham Hale and beyond - although they'd still need to call at Clapton.

 

[BritishGuy54]

The northern/eastern end of the Victoria Line is crowded enough as it is. Extending to Chingford would only cause more problems. I do think that an extension to Woodford or Leytonstone would be useful, though unlikely.

I’d rather the hall farm curve be rebuilt and a new bay platform built at Stratford to allow an additional 2-4tph from there to Chingford.

It is a common proposal to have the Victoria line take over the Central line to Hainault via Leytonstone.

It could have some uses beyond that, if it wasn’t just fields and forest.