Thoughts on the Trump presidency

[The Ham]

A few thousand of those drones they have may be enough to give them a scare

Especially if they really only have a few tens of km of line of sight to deal with them, that'sa very different prospect to dealing with something heading at them from over 50km or much further out.

 

[AM9]

I suspect they still have hundreds, if not thousands of Shahed drones. While one or two would be easily fought off, a large swarm might prove able to do some damage. A US capital ship might prove too tempting of a target to pass up.

I think the surface and underwater drones pose the biggest threat. It's thought that they have hundreds in storage, - very cheap to make, difficult to stop and carrying a large charge.

 

[Killingworth]

The contributors to this Forum and thread are not likely to include many MAGA activists, and if they do exist they'll wisely be keeping their heads down to avoid them being shot off.

However in the US they most certainly do exist and have considerable support. It must be 10 years since I had long conversations at 1 am with a former neighbour then living in Arizona. He'd be over 100 now but his likely views might even be to the right of Trump. I stopped communications with his widow because hers certainly would be. Both were very keen on being well armed and I gather their house was well fortified against possible intruders.

Recalling those conversations i can totally understand how a large minority are absolutely convinced that Trump is heading in the right direction. A nation of immigrants and descendants of immigrants happy to pull up the ladder for any more - most especially if not like us! Yet often incredibly ignorant about life outside their city suburb let alone state and nation. (OK, that goes for quite a lot in the UK too.)

Which makes it interesting when we come across 'Dame' Brigitte Gabriel and her ACT FOR AMERICA group, see https://www.actforamerica.org/aboutbrigitte

Brigitte Gabriel
New York Times Bestselling Author • National Security Expert • Political Commentator

Brigitte Gabriel is a globally recognized authority on national security, terrorism, geopolitics, and the preservation of Western civilization. A legal immigrant from Lebanon, she survived the brutality of the Lebanese War, spending seven years—ages 10 to 17—living in an 8×10-foot underground bomb shelter without electricity or running water as Islamic militants destroyed her community. These formative years forged her unmatched firsthand understanding of radical extremism and the global stakes of the fight for freedom.

In 1984, she relocated to Israel, where she became a prime-time news anchor for Middle East Television’s Arabic-language program World News, broadcast across Israel and throughout the Arab world. Her journalism career placed her face-to-face with international leaders including Margaret Thatcher, President George H.W. Bush, Queen Noor of Jordan, Yitzhak Rabin, and Shimon Peres.

After legally immigrating to the United States in 1989, Brigitte founded a successful television production and advertising company that served major networks such as ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, Discovery, TLC, History Channel, 20/20, Good Morning America, and The Oprah Winfrey Show.

Brigitte delivered high-level briefings to institutions around the world, including the United Nations, the Australian Prime Minister, the British Parliament, the U.S. Congress, the Pentagon, U.S. Special Operations Command, the FBI, and numerous intelligence and defense agencies.

A frequent expert commentator on major national and international media outlets, she is widely regarded as one of the most influential voices in national security today.

Brigitte is the founder and chairman of ACT for America, the largest national-security-focused grassroots organization in the United States, with over five million members and supporters.

A New York Times bestselling author, she has written three books, including her most recent and widely praised work RISE: In Defense of Judeo-Christian Values and Freedom. In 2016 she was knighted in Europe, receiving the title Dame Brigitte Gabriel, and in 2025 she was awarded the prestigious Menachem Begin Prize in recognition of her significant contribution to the people and the State of Israel.

Fluent in Arabic, French, English, and Hebrew, Dame Brigitte Gabriel is consistently ranked among the top 50 most influential public speakers in the United States. She remains a fearless advocate for truth, liberty, Western values, and the enduring promise of the American dream.

Authority? Where she got her damehood from (in Europe) is unclear but our likely opinion, fruitcake, won't be shared by her hardcore adherents. She is certainly not the only one but her ancestry in Lebanon, Catholic faith and being multilingual will convince a lot in America. She seems to know a lot more than most about the subject.

Unfortunately in the modern world attention spans are short. Ability to seriously question 'facts' is too often lacking - and in that regard we're all guilty sometimes of assuming something is AI enhanced when it's fully genuine!

There will be life after Trump but he and his acolytes will leave a mighty big mess to clear up. He's only just started.

 

[Krokodil]

Where she got her damehood from (in Europe) is unclear

Particularly considering that the only places the "title" is used are on her own websites. As far as I can see, only the UK bestows this title and as a non-British or Commonwealth citizen she would only be eligible for an honorary award. Handily Wikipedia provides a complete list of these and she does not appear: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_honorary_British_knights_and_dames

 

[The exile]

Particularly considering that the only places the "title" is used are on her own websites. As far as I can see, only the UK bestows this title and as a non-British or Commonwealth citizen she would only be eligible for an honorary award. Handily Wikipedia provides a complete list of these and she does not appear: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_honorary_British_knights_and_dames

Knights of St John / Knights of the Sovereign Order of Malta still exist, but I doubt she’s either of those.

 

[thenorthern]

Given how badly (i.e. it's not all over in 2 days) the US military is doing in Iran, I suspect that Cuba is a little relieved that they're less likely to be in the Trump crosshairs.



Indeed, however, the second article is in the context of him being an MEP and mostly confirming the will of the Hungarian parliament not to send weapons. That could well be a very different position to what he actuality would prefer.

Although, it will be good to see what he is actually like, however it does feel promising that it's such a clean break (given the size of the win) and for someone who is more aligned with the EU than Russia in comparison.

His position was mentioned in today's Guardian. It's less hardliner than Orban but nothing for Ukraine to celebrate about.

It reminds me very much of Macron in 2017 and Biden in 2020. Sure the less worse option for those on the left got in but its not something they should really be celebrating. Zack Polanski tweeted something supportive of the new bloke in Hungary which I thought went a bit far given the new blokes views.

For the time being, Magyar’s lines on Ukraine look similar to some of Orbán’s: the new prime minister has said he will push on with Hungary’s opposition to sending arms to the country and to fast-tracking EU entry for Kyiv. But the new government could well choose to show a more conciliatory direction by dropping its opposition to the €90bn EU loan; given his stated aim of repairing relations, it seems unlikely Magyar will wield vetos as freely as his predecessor.

The Kremlin has said it hopes to “continue pragmatic contacts with the new leadership”, while Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said his country was “ready for meetings and joint constructive work for the benefit of both nations, as well as peace, security and stability in Europe”.

What does Péter Magyar’s win in Hungary mean for the EU and Ukraine?

Tisza leader has promised to repair Budapest’s ties with Brussels after years of strained relations under Viktor Orbán

www.theguardian.com

 

[Falcon1200]

Where she got her damehood from (in Europe) is unclear

Probably got it from the same place as Dame Edna Everage.

 

[SargeNpton]

Knights of St John / Knights of the Sovereign Order of Malta still exist, but I doubt she’s either of those.

"This Solemn International Investiture of the Knights of Malta took place at the Palace of the Grand Master of the Knights of Saint John of Jerusalem, in the old city of Rhodes island, Greece."

The above taken from this website: https://www.nyrealestatelawblog.com...-blog/2016/november/knight-brigitte-gabriel-/

 

[thenorthern]

The contributors to this Forum and thread are not likely to include many MAGA activists, and if they do exist they'll wisely be keeping their heads down to avoid them being shot off.

However in the US they most certainly do exist and have considerable support. It must be 10 years since I had long conversations at 1 am with a former neighbour then living in Arizona. He'd be over 100 now but his likely views might even be to the right of Trump. I stopped communications with his widow because hers certainly would be. Both were very keen on being well armed and I gather their house was well fortified against possible intruders.

Recalling those conversations i can totally understand how a large minority are absolutely convinced that Trump is heading in the right direction. A nation of immigrants and descendants of immigrants happy to pull up the ladder for any more - most especially if not like us! Yet often incredibly ignorant about life outside their city suburb let alone state and nation. (OK, that goes for quite a lot in the UK too.)

Which makes it interesting when we come across 'Dame' Brigitte Gabriel and her ACT FOR AMERICA group, see https://www.actforamerica.org/aboutbrigitte



Authority? Where she got her damehood from (in Europe) is unclear but our likely opinion, fruitcake, won't be shared by her hardcore adherents. She is certainly not the only one but her ancestry in Lebanon, Catholic faith and being multilingual will convince a lot in America. She seems to know a lot more than most about the subject.

Unfortunately in the modern world attention spans are short. Ability to seriously question 'facts' is too often lacking - and in that regard we're all guilty sometimes of assuming something is AI enhanced when it's fully genuine!

There will be life after Trump but he and his acolytes will leave a mighty big mess to clear up. He's only just started.

Very true I remember back in 2016 when I was at Uni there was a student who went on an exchange trip to a university in Tennessee. When she returned she mentioned "can you actually believe I met a Trump voter" implying it was like seeing something very rare.

In reality Tennessee is an ultra Republican state meaning most the people there were probably Republican. It would be like being shocked to find a Brexit supporter in Lincolnshire.

 

[Krokodil]

"This Solemn International Investiture of the Knights of Malta took place at the Palace of the Grand Master of the Knights of Saint John of Jerusalem, in the old city of Rhodes island, Greece."

The above taken from this website: https://www.nyrealestatelawblog.com...-blog/2016/november/knight-brigitte-gabriel-/

Which appears to be self-published.

I'll treat it the same as I treat the "FIFA Peace Prize"

 

[Mr. SW]

Probably got it from the same place as Dame Edna Everage.

Probably filled in the form on the back of a packet of cornflakes, and sent it off enclosed with proof of purchase and a £5 postal order. Allow 28 days for delivery.

 

[AlterEgo]

The above taken from this website: https://www.nyrealestatelawblog.com...-blog/2016/november/knight-brigitte-gabriel-/

Tony Blaire (sic), haha.

 

[Killingworth]

The above taken from this website: https://www.nyrealestatelawblog.com...-blog/2016/november/knight-brigitte-gabriel-/

Not quite the same as a UK knighthood; https://orderofmaltaamerican.org/about-the-order/the-order-is/

And; https://www.orderofmalta.int/about-the-order-of-malta/knights-of-malta/

 

[bahnause]

The Orange Nero may have lost his marbles ages ago, he's reached a new low achieving something Hitler & Mussolini never did, by this extraordinary attack on the Pope.

Of all these attacks, this one bothers me the least. After all, the Pope is a head of state who represents an absolute elective monarchy without democratic legitimacy, and whose moral stance on numerous issues is more than questionable.

 

[The Ham]

Of all these attacks, this one bothers me the least. After all, the Pope is a head of state who represents an absolute elective monarchy without democratic legitimacy, and whose moral stance on numerous issues is more than questionable.

Whist there's quite a few areas where there's potential for questioning some of the moral standards of the Pope, I fear that when comparing against someone like Trump (given that Trump is the one raising the concerns) there's going to be more people supportive of the person who is currently the Pope than Trump (if we're gong to have to pick sides based morals).

Happy for anyone to put forwards a case for the opposition.

If we're gong to look at what the office of those individuals have done, that's a different point, however I would highlight that comparisons between (say) the 12th and 21st Centuries starts to get complicated (putting it mildly).

 

[AlterEgo]

Of all these attacks, this one bothers me the least. After all, the Pope is a head of state who represents an absolute elective monarchy without democratic legitimacy, and whose moral stance on numerous issues is more than questionable.

Does it bother you less than his attacks on the Iranian theocracy?

The Pope is one of the few global figures with the ability to influence a significant volume of Trump's base, so moralising about how the Pope himself is problematic is self-defeating.

 

[Yew]

I more meant how does the US Navy get its ships to the Iranian ports without passing within range of a country that they're currently involved in a war excursion with? Typically attacks on US vessels are deterred by not wanting to start a war.

The typical tactic is a "distant blockade" we did something similar with Germany in WW1, blockading the straight of dover, and across the North Sea from Scotland to Norway.
It'll probably be a case of sitting in the gulf of Oman, dispatching helicopters to intercept ships.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Apr 2026 ==

difficult to stop

An individual drone is easy to stop. A coordinated attack is more difficult, so presumably any Americas task force will be sent in sufficient strength to deal with them.

 

[bahnause]

Does it bother you less than his attacks on the Iranian theocracy?

The Pope is one of the few global figures with the ability to influence a significant volume of Trump's base, so moralising about how the Pope himself is problematic is self-defeating.

I suppose I’ll have to create a 'botheredness scale' at some point.

The Pope’s intervention is welcome in this case, of course. However, it would be a mistake to read a general sense of moral superiority into it. I am currently observing how this is happening with many people who have spent years paving the way for Trump with propaganda and lies, and who are now being touted as icons of reason for the slightest criticism of their idol. This sets a worrying precedent for future discussions, giving them an inordinate amount of airtime. In the Pope’s case, the situation is exacerbated by the fact that the number and significance of his claims are inversely proportional to the supporting facts.

 

[Gloster]

The typical tactic is a "distant blockade" we did something similar with Germany in WW1, blockading the straight of dover, and across the North Sea from Scotland to Norway.
It'll probably be a case of sitting in the gulf of Oman, dispatching helicopters to intercept ships.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Apr 2026 ==

If I understand it (and I am far from an expert on the Law of the Sea) you have a problem. Where does one country stopping ships of other countries at will in international waters differ from piracy? While such action may accepted when there is an international coalition and action between combatants is the norm during a war, as the IRS Dena found, an open-eded stopping of other countries ships that might or might not be connected to their enemy, rather being known to be trading with them, is on a very fine line. But I expect that the US’s attitude is that they will do what they want.

 

[ainsworth74]

Where does one country stopping ships of other countries at will in international waters differ from piracy?

Piracy is defined by UNCLOS as being:

Piracy consists of any of the following acts:

(a) any illegal acts of violence or detention, or any act of depredation, committed for private ends by the crew or the passengers of a private ship or a private aircraft, and directed:

(i) on the high seas, against another ship or aircraft, or against persons or property on board such ship or aircraft;​

(ii) against a ship, aircraft, persons or property in a place outside the jurisdiction of any State;
​

(b) any act of voluntary participation in the operation of a ship or of an aircraft with knowledge of facts making it a pirate ship or aircraft;

(c) any act of inciting or of intentionally facilitating an act described in subparagraph (a) or (b).

USN ships aren't private ships and the sailors therein wouldn't be doing it for private ends. Therefore it is not an act of piracy. There's a reason that a blockade is generally seen as an act of war giving casus belli for the state who is being blockaded against those doing the blockading.

 

[Cdd89]

The first question is what happens if (eg) China decides to escort their tanker with a token military ship. Russia has been doing this, both to Cuba and on shadow fleet tankers in UK waters, which has been successful on the grounds that nobody wants to start an actual war. (Or in Trump's case, not another one).

The other question is once the US Navy has interdicted a tanker... what do they actually do with the thing? Hopefully the White House has thought this through in advance rather than waiting until it actually happens.

 

[najaB]

The other question is once the US Navy has interdicted a tanker... what do they actually do with the thing? Hopefully the White House has thought this through in advance rather than waiting until it actually happens.

I take it that you haven't been watching most of this series...

 

[ainsworth74]

The first question is what happens if (eg) China decides to escort their tanker with a token military ship. Russia has been doing this, both to Cuba and on shadow fleet tankers in UK waters, which has been successful on the grounds that nobody wants to start an actual war. (Or in Trump's case, not another one).

The other question is once the US Navy has interdicted a tanker... what do they actually do with the thing? Hopefully the White House has thought this through in advance rather than waiting until it actually happens.

These are all good questions which I'm sure have been given due to consideration by the crack team in the Trump administration who are definitely not lurching from crisis to crisis without a clue how any of this works and most of the time are just trying to turn the increasingly deranged ramblings of their dementia addled leader into something vaguely having the appearance of a coherent policy intending to achieve defined and clear aims.

 

[Cowley]

I take it that you haven't been watching most of this series...

Yeah that sentence made me shudder too!

 

[Cdd89]

In response to the two posts above, I should like to note that @ainsworth74 is more skilled at communicating sarcasm than me.

 

[adc82140]

There are increasing parallels between Trump and a certain Michael Jackson:

Questionable behaviour with people under age

Portraying yourself as some sort of Christ figure

Making increasingly unhinged statements

And both of them surrounded by "yes" men who encouraged them to believe their own hype.

The difference is, for all his major flaws, initially MJ had some talent.

 

[Annetts key]

These are all good questions which I'm sure have been given due to consideration by the crack team in the Trump administration who are definitely not lurching from crisis to crisis without a clue how any of this works and most of the time are just trying to turn the increasingly deranged ramblings of their dementia addled leader into something vaguely having the appearance of a coherent policy intending to achieve defined and clear aims.

On the subject of thinking ahead...

Normally about ⅕ (20%) of the world's liquefied natural gas and ¼ (25%) of seaborne oil trade (about 20% of worldwide oil) passes via the Strait of Hormuz. Now, both Saudi Arabia and UAE are using oil pipelines that are available to them to bypass the Strait of Hormuz so providing a fraction of the normal flow of oil out of the region.

In the meantime, the world is using oil and gas that is in storage (for oil, that's the strategic oil reserves) to make up the shortfall in the world market, which is why the prices are going up slowly or are somewhat stable.

If all oil trade is stopped via the Strait of Hormuz (Iran not allowing "unfriendly countries" tankers to pass and the U.S. not allowing ships with Irian oil), this will further reduce the amount on the worldwide market, as China and India will be forced to buy on the worldwide market.

The oil market has been disrupted for 46 days so far.

Now, what happens when the oil storage levels start getting low?

Despite the bull from Trump about the U.S.A. having their own oil, oil is not oil, there are different grades. And oil refineries need the correct grade. Plus, just as with "our" North Sea oil, it's traded on international markets.

So, as the worldwide price of oil starts to rise again, so will gasolene prices in the U.S. and around the world, with transport and food prices also increasing even more...

This err, "policy" is just going to speed up the problem, as I don't see Iran backing down. Iran doesn’t have to worry about mid-term elections...

Quotes:

From Aljazeera:

Which countries have strategic oil reserves – and how much?​

Members of the International Energy Agency have agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves.

According to the IEA, its members currently hold more than 1.2 billion barrels of these public emergency oil stocks with a further 600 million barrels of industry stocks held by private organisations but under government mandate to be available to supplement public needs.

Other reserves are also held by non IEA members like China.

China - strategic oil reserve bases:

“The bases are designed to maintain strategic oil reserves of an equivalent to 30 days of imports, or about 10 million tonnes”.

US

Of the IEA members, the US holds one of the largest strategic oil reserves with 415 million barrels of oil. The stores are maintained by the US Department of Energy. It has confirmed that it will release 172 million barrels of oil from its SPR over this year as its contribution to coordinated efforts with the IEA.

On Friday, the Trump’s administration announced that it has already lent 45.2 million barrels of crude from the SPR to oil companies.

Japan

An IEA member, Japan also has one of the world’s largest strategic oil reserves.

According to Japanese media Nikkei Asia, at the end of 2025, the country held about 470 million barrels of in emergency reserves which is enough to meet 254 days of domestic consumption. Out of this amount, 146 days worth of oil are government-owned, 101 days are owned by the private sector, and the remainder is jointly stored by oil-producing countries.

UK

As of February 26, according to the UK Department of Energy Security and Net Zero, the UK holds about 38 million ⁠barrels of crude oil and 30 million barrels of refined products, as strategic reserves. The reserves are thought to be able to last around 90 days.

The UK government will be contributing 13.5 million barrels as a part of the release.

EU

EU member nations including Germany, France, Spain and Italy, all IEA members, also hold strategic oil reserves.

Germany has 110 million barrels of crude oil and 67 million barrels of finished petroleum products which are held by the government and can be released in a matter of days, according to Germany’s economy ministry.

France reported about 120 million barrels’ worth of crude and finished products in reserve at the end of 2024, the most recent data publicly available. About 97 million barrels of that is held by SAGESS, a government-mandated entity, with ‌a breakdown ⁠of about 30 percent crude oil, 50 percent gasoil, 9 percent gasoline, 7.8 percent jet fuel and some heating oil. Another 39 million barrels are held by the country’s oil operators.

On March 16, Spain approved the release of around 11.5 million barrels of oil reserves over 90 days to counter ⁠supply shortages caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Energy Minister Sara Aagesen told reporters. This is the country’s contribution to the IEA release. The country has around 150 million barrels of crude oil reserves in total.

Italy, by law, was holding about 76 million barrels of reserves, representing 90 days of Italy’s average net oil imports, in 2024.

IEA Oil Market Report - April 2026​

• Oil demand is expected to contract by 80 kb/d this year, as the Iran war upends our global outlook. This is 730 kb/d less than in last month’s Report and a forecast 1.5 mb/d 2Q26 decline would be the sharpest since Covid-19 slashed fuel consumption. Initially, the deepest cuts in oil use have come in the Middle East and Asia Pacific, mainly for naphtha, LPG and jet fuel. However, demand destruction will spread as scarcity and higher prices persist.
• Global oil supply plummeted by 10.1 mb/d to 97 mb/d in March, with continued attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and ongoing restrictions to tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz leading to the largest disruption in history. OPEC+ production fell 9.4 mb/d m-o-m to 42.4 mb/d while non-OPEC+ supply declined 770 kb/d m-o-m to 54.7 mb/d, as lower Qatari output offset gains in Brazil and the United States.
• Global crude throughputs continue to struggle with disruptions to feedstock supplies and infrastructure damage that are tightening global product markets. In April, Middle East and feedstock-constrained refineries in Asia have cut runs by around 6 mb/d, to 77.2 mb/d. Global crude runs are now expected to decline by 1 mb/d on average in 2026, to 82.9 mb/d. Refining margins temporarily surged as middle distillate cracks reached all-time highs.
• Global observed oil inventories fell by 85 mb in March, with stocks outside of the Middle East Gulf drawn down by a significant 205 mb (-6.6 mb/d) as flows through the Strait of Hormuz were choked off. At the same time, with limited outlets after the effective closure of the Strait, floating storage of crude and oil products in the Middle East rose by 100 mb and onshore crude stocks in the region were up by 20 mb. China added 40 mb of crude to tanks.
• Oil prices posted their largest-ever monthly gain in March in the wake of the most severe oil supply shock in history. Spot crude benchmarks and differentials soared, outpacing futures markets, as refiners anxiously scrambled to replace locked in Middle Eastern cargoes. At the time of writing, North Sea Dated crude was trading around $130/bbl – $60/bbl above pre-conflict levels.

Disruptions mount​

The announcement last week of a two-week ceasefire in the conflict in the Middle East provided some welcome respite to global oil markets just as the impact of disruptions to supply and trade were spreading globally. However, at the time of writing, it remains unclear whether the ceasefire will turn into a lasting peace and a return to regular shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz. With oil-importing nations scrambling to source replacement barrels from an increasingly shrinking pool of supply, physical crude oil prices surged to record levels near $150/bbl, far above the prices in futures markets, with the physical-futures disconnect becoming increasingly acute. Even steeper gains have been seen for refined products, with middle distillate prices in Singapore reaching all-time highs above $290/bbl.

Resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most important variable in easing the pressure on energy supplies, prices and the global economy. The latest development in the fast-evolving situation is the announced US blockade on vessels entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, which was due to go into effect soon after the time of writing. In early April, shipments through the Strait remained severely restricted, with loadings of crude, natural gas liquids and refined products averaging around 3.8 mb/d, compared with more than 20 mb/d in February ahead of the crisis. Exports through alternative routes – most notably from the west coast of Saudi Arabia and Fujairah on the east coast of the UAE, as well as the ITP pipeline that runs from Iraq to Ceyhan in Türkiye – had increased to 7.2 mb/d from less than 4 mb/d before the war. The overall loss in oil exports exceeds 13 mb/d, with associated production curtailment and damage to energy infrastructure in the region resulting in cumulative supply losses of more than 360 mb in March and 440 mb projected for April.

Consumers and refiners alike are tapping into oil inventories to mitigate the immediate impact of supply disruptions. In March, global observed oil stocks fell by 85 mb despite an accumulation of both on-land and offshore inventories in the Middle East and further builds in China. The largest decline came from oil on water following the near halt to sailings from Gulf producers dependent on the Strait. Crude oil stocks in importing countries in Asia dropped by 31 mb, with further declines expected in April.

Where oil inventories could not bridge the gap, demand has taken a hit. Most notably, Asian petrochemical producers have curtailed operating rates as feedstock supply dried up. Households and businesses using LPG have also been impacted, while flight cancellations across the Middle East, parts of Asia and Europe have led to a sharp drop in jet fuel consumption. A growing number of countries have implemented policies to reduce demand, while others have put in place measures to shield consumers from the full impact of rising fuel prices. Overall, global oil demand is estimated to contract by 800 kb/d year-on-year in March and by 2.3 mb/d in April. Global oil demand is now projected to decline by 80 kb/d on average in 2026, compared to growth of 730 kb/d expected in last month’s Report.

The prospects for a lasting negotiated settlement to the conflict remain unclear at this stage. In this Report, we present a forecast that assumes a resumption of regular deliveries of oil and gas from the Middle East to international markets by mid-year, although not back to pre-conflict levels. We recognise that this scenario could prove too optimistic, considering the high degree of uncertainty over how the situation may develop. We also present an alternative case where risks to energy production and trade in the Middle East remain high due to a prolonged conflict (see Strait Down – Stocks Draw as the Loss of Hormuz Flows Tightens Balances). In this case, energy markets and economies around the world need to brace for significant disruptions in the months to come.

Note: mb/d stands for million barrels per day.

(Facts taken from Wikipedia, IEA and Aljazeera)

 

[dorsetdesiro]

With China ignoring his blockade, the Orange Emperor has no clothes

 

[Bantamzen]

With China ignoring his blockade, the Orange Emperor has no clothes

Well it is Taco* Tuesday....

(*Trump Always Chickens Out)

 

[The exile]

With China ignoring his blockade, the Orange Emperor has no clothes

Thank you for putting that image in my head and completely ruining my lunch!