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Wind Power and UK Energy Use

hwl

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Yes the ‘other’ category on gridwatch is certainly seeing more generation these days, especially at peak price times which I assumeis Batteries discharging. However it doesn’t appear to show negative when charging. Now that there are more and more battery systems connecting that are over 50MW, we should be seeing much more in this.
"other" should also include the 4 large gas engine plants that are sufficiently large to be in the stats. This might be one reason to explain why it doesn't go negative.
It probably about time "large scale battery" and "gas engine" were added to the categories list.
 
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Bald Rick

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"other" should also include the 4 large gas engine plants that are sufficiently large to be in the stats. This might be one reason to explain why it doesn't go negative.
It probably about time "large scale battery" and "gas engine" were added to the categories list.

Gridwatch does have an OCGT meter; could the gas engine plants be there?
 

The Ham

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Whilst only a local company and only quoting enquiries (not sales) the below is quite an uplift from 300 a month to 700 or 800 in a week (the article quotes both numbers):

Suffolk green energy company sees 800 inquiries in a week - BBC News https://share.google/A6lKdo3RHLKMJnq0V

A renewable energy company says it has had more than 800 inquiries in seven days due to the increasing price of heating oil.
Josh Young, 31, chief executive at Greenscape Energy based in Ipswich, said he was dealing with a mass of inquiries for things such as solar panels and air source heat pumps.
It comes as prices for heating oil, as well as petrol and diesel, have increased due to the US-Israel war with Iran in the Middle East.
"It's gone crazy in the last week," Young said.
"We've had over 800 inquiries in seven days; trying to deal with them is really tough at the moment, but we've had worse things to manage," he said.
"A normal month is around 250 to 300 inquiries, so to have nearly 700 in seven days is just off the charts, but it's very similar to the Ukraine scenario when Russia invaded.
"It's the same amount of volume coming through."
 

hwl

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Gridwatch does have an OCGT meter; could the gas engine plants be there?
They shouldn't be in there but there is some genuine OCGT that gets used occasionally and there doesn't seem to be much change in the OCGT numbers hence I suspect it is showing up in "other" which has suddenly started seeing numbers other than zero in the last year.
Knowing Elexon fairly well it might take a while to get useful extra categories (the underlying data will be fine, just the data crunching because users have to be ready for a change).

There are also lots of data quality issues with lots of the small scale renewables data and estimates thereof resulting in under counting and that will take several years to fix.
(There is also no chance of any sensible data (ever) from the proposed new plug-in micro-solar that the pre-consultation work has just started on).
 

takno

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They shouldn't be in there but there is some genuine OCGT that gets used occasionally and there doesn't seem to be much change in the OCGT numbers hence I suspect it is showing up in "other" which has suddenly started seeing numbers other than zero in the last year.
Knowing Elexon fairly well it might take a while to get useful extra categories (the underlying data will be fine, just the data crunching because users have to be ready for a change).

There are also lots of data quality issues with lots of the small scale renewables data and estimates thereof resulting in under counting and that will take several years to fix.
(There is also no chance of any sensible data (ever) from the proposed new plug-in micro-solar that the pre-consultation work has just started on).
If you want data from micro solar your best bet is probably to convince the manufacturers to build official stats-gathering into the control apps. Even then you're going to have to do a lot of estimation and modelling to cover people who don't share stats, and probably people who don't use the app.

At some point though I think the answer with micro-solar and domestic batteries is to accept that they are not part of the grid, and that treating them as if they were simple energy-efficiency gains is the best approach
 

hwl

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If you want data from micro solar your best bet is probably to convince the manufacturers to build official stats-gathering into the control apps. Even then you're going to have to do a lot of estimation and modelling to cover people who don't share stats, and probably people who don't use the app.

At some point though I think the answer with micro-solar and domestic batteries is to accept that they are not part of the grid, and that treating them as if they were simple energy-efficiency gains is the best approach
Agreed.
A reasonable sample size (and understanding the sample vs population size) is still need to understand the weather impact for modelling purposes due to regional effects.
 

richard_S

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When I started this I was thinking of generation for station infrastructure ( screen displays lighting etc) not for track power. A couple of kW wind and solar.
 

Crithylum

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If you want data from micro solar your best bet is probably to convince the manufacturers to build official stats-gathering into the control apps. Even then you're going to have to do a lot of estimation and modelling to cover people who don't share stats, and probably people who don't use the app.

At some point though I think the answer with micro-solar and domestic batteries is to accept that they are not part of the grid, and that treating them as if they were simple energy-efficiency gains is the best approach
I would do it a similar way to TV ratings, only taking data from a small subset of households and using that to estimate total production. As solar panels are visible from satellite imagery, it should be possible to get an accurate estimate of maximum production as well.
 

The Ham

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I would do it a similar way to TV ratings, only taking data from a small subset of households and using that to estimate total production. As solar panels are visible from satellite imagery, it should be possible to get an accurate estimate of maximum production as well.

Not sure how accurate that's going to be, given that I have panels (3 years old, which came with the house) with an energy rating 380, yet if I were install now they would likely be 460.

With good imagery you might tell the difference, but otherwise it's going to be tough. Also, given that 190,000 solar installations happened in 2022 (and it's grown year in year since then) you're going to need to keep updating your data a lot to keep on top of the numbers.
 

takno

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I would do it a similar way to TV ratings, only taking data from a small subset of households and using that to estimate total production. As solar panels are visible from satellite imagery, it should be possible to get an accurate estimate of maximum production as well.
I think you'll struggle with using satellite imagery. There's more and more panels going in vertically, which is much harder to spot. Balcony solar is typically only a couple of panels mounted vertically, which is likely to not register at all.

The other issue is batteries, since that will likely have more impact on peak usage than the solar they may not be attached to.
 

Class 317

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The solar generation is probably easier to work out via the reduced demand particularly as it should have a strong correlation to recorded weather etc. Home battery systems should also have telltale demand side data. I don't think we need to know an exact figure in real-time more and expected demand and forecast likely reduction based on forecast weather.and growth of installations etc.
 

HSTEd

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The maximum permissable export for a solar system is registered with the distribution operator. That's not quite the same as maximum output but its probably a reasonable proxy.
 

Class 317

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I think you'll struggle with using satellite imagery. There's more and more panels going in vertically, which is much harder to spot. Balcony solar is typically only a couple of panels mounted vertically, which is likely to not register at all.

The other issue is batteries, since that will likely have more impact on peak usage than the solar they may not be attached to.
You have remember that the grid receives demand signals from the aggregate data received area by area. Within each area their are tens of millions of connections all with different usage patterns from domestic to industrial. A individual battery or solar installation is insignificant in itself within this demand side data but the aggregate effect maybe more significant as they scale up and become more widespread. It is the aggregated effect of all demand side data that national grid use and are highly good at forecasting. Thier demand model has hundreds of variables in it. Only 10 or so are major factors and home battery plus solar systems are very far down this list.

I should explain that national grid view home solar as a reduction in demand not as generation.
 

takno

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You have remember that the grid receives demand signals from the aggregate data received area by area. Within each area their are tens of millions of connections all with different usage patterns from domestic to industrial. A individual battery or solar installation is insignificant in itself within this demand side data but the aggregate effect maybe more significant as they scale up and become more widespread. It is the aggregated effect of all demand side data that national grid use and are highly good at forecasting. Thier demand model has hundreds of variables in it. Only 10 or so are major factors and home battery plus solar systems are very far down this list.

I should explain that national grid view home solar as a reduction in demand not as generation.
The discussion was about how you might estimate solar and battery to get a robust idea of their effect on demand, because it's an interesting piece of data on its own merits, and about how useful satellite imagery might be in achieving that.

In terms of grid forecasting it's fairly obvious that you'd regard home solar as a reduction in demand, and I'm entirely sure that demand forecasting can continue to be done using previous demand figures.
 

Class 317

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The discussion was about how you might estimate solar and battery to get a robust idea of their effect on demand, because it's an interesting piece of data on its own merits, and about how useful satellite imagery might be in achieving that.

In terms of grid forecasting it's fairly obvious that you'd regard home solar as a reduction in demand, and I'm entirely sure that demand forecasting can continue to be done using previous demand figures.
The demand reduction already gives you a fairly robust idea of the effect on demand. It's already combined with data on installation rates to produce a good idea of the effects. It's just looking at it via a different and more easily measured way to estimate the effect. Unfortunately these figures are not in the public domain so I can't provide anymore details.

In addition to macro level forecasting a lot of work goes into looking at the effort of new technology on individual users. A good example is LED lighting. This massively reduced demand. The effect this would have was worked out at a user level by using theoretical users, both domestic and commercial created based on averages of real users. This was then modelled against various uptake rates based on various assumptions to produce a range of scenarios of demand implications. This was then updated as uptake levels changed.

A similar analysis would have been undertaken for home Solar and battery installations. The figure you seem to be after would already be available within the detailed figures of the demand reduction and within the estimates of the demand reduction. National grid are likely to publish this information once the effect becomes statistically significant which they may already have done so (it's not what I specialise in so I don't have all the details to hand). Essentially demand reduction and supply side measurements are just two different ways to get the same figures.

Hope this helps the discussion.
 

brad465

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The current wholesale price is around -£55/MWh, which must be among the lowest ever seen. Strong renewable performance combined with Easter Sunday having lower demand than both a weekday and a normal Sunday will be behind this I suspect.
 

Nottingham59

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The current wholesale price is around -£55/MWh, which must be among the lowest ever seen. Strong renewable performance combined with Easter Sunday having lower demand than both a weekday and a normal Sunday will be behind this I suspect.
Yet we're still importing electricity from France, Belgium and the Netherlands. So prices must be even more negative over there! https://gridwatch.co.uk/Int
 

Bald Rick

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The current wholesale price is around -£55/MWh, which must be among the lowest ever seen. Strong renewable performance combined with Easter Sunday having lower demand than both a weekday and a normal Sunday will be behind this I suspect.

the ”instantaneous” day ahead wholesale price record is -£99.01/MWh.

For one reason or another I’m routinely unasleep around 0500-0700 at weekends, and prices of -£70ish are far from unusual on windy days.

Yet we're still importing electricity from France, Belgium and the Netherlands. So prices must be even more negative over there! https://gridwatch.co.uk/Int

ah, thats the difference between long term and short term prices, and regional imbalances. ”We“ will be paying for the imports (at low prices) because we contracted it some time out, and/or because the local demand in the south east requires it.
 

brad465

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Gas is currently only producing 0.86GW, which is the lowest I can recall, and must be a sign that some sites have turned off completely, rather than on "warm".
 

Class 317

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Gas is currently only producing 0.86GW, which is the lowest I can recall, and must be a sign that some sites have turned off completely, rather than on "warm"
That should be correct I believe at the moment wind is forecast to be reasonable all day alongside a large solar output and demand being relatively low in the Easter half term
 

Simon11

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Gas is currently only producing 0.86GW, which is the lowest I can recall, and must be a sign that some sites have turned off completely, rather than on "warm".
Does anyone know which Gas plants are still producing energy today and if possible, share the reason for it?

I presume the plants would be in the South East where existing infrastructure cannot transfer enough renewable energy to?
 

Bald Rick

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Pretty sure the Solar record went again today. Almost 14GW by the looks of it.
 

quantinghome

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Does anyone know which Gas plants are still producing energy today and if possible, share the reason for it?
This is an amazingly detailed map of real-time and historical electricity production: https://renewables-map.robinhawkes.com/

This was the gas production at 11am today:
https://renewables-map.robinhawkes.com/?date=2026-04-07T10:00:00.000Z#5.91/52.336/-1.28

1775595357903.png

I presume the plants would be in the South East where existing infrastructure cannot transfer enough renewable energy to?
Not sure why. It may be to maintain back-up capacity which can be quickly brought online in the case of a large generator going off line. But that's just a guess on my part.
 

hwl

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Pretty sure the Solar record went again today. Almost 14GW by the looks of it.

Solar: equalled last July's record of 14.0GW (achieved on several days in July).

We might be on for a new solar record tomorrow.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Gas is currently only producing 0.86GW, which is the lowest I can recall, and must be a sign that some sites have turned off completely, rather than on "warm".
CCGT: New record low of 0.848GW
 

HSTEd

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Not sure why. It may be to maintain back-up capacity which can be quickly brought online in the case of a large generator going off line. But that's just a guess on my part.
From the map, three gas plants were operating, Immingham (34MW/1180MW) was probably operating in hot standby using auxiliary turbines. Immingham is, I believe, coupled to the petrochemical complex, so who knows.

The other two Marchwood (480MW/840MW) and Grain (230MW/1378MW) were operating under system operator turn-up authority, apparently.

Grain is probably at or near minimum stable output on one unit, so is probably pulling system reserve duty, not sure about Marchwood. It might just be minimum stable output on both its units for the same reason.
 

Nottingham59

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Gas is currently only producing 0.86GW, which is the lowest I can recall, and must be a sign that some sites have turned off completely, rather than on "warm".
Remember there's biomass too, which also provides inertia to the grid. Today's the first time I've seen biomass exceeding CCGT generation.
 

brad465

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Solar: equalled last July's record of 14.0GW (achieved on several days in July).

We might be on for a new solar record tomorrow.
Is it reasonable to assume that if there was a higher level of battery storage available, both in homes with solar panels and large installations fed by solar farms, that more solar power can be achieved from existing capacity right now?
 

Class 317

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Is it reasonable to assume that if there was a higher level of battery storage available, both in homes with solar panels and large installations fed by solar farms, that more solar power can be achieved from existing capacity right now?
Not really an issue with curtailment from Solar yet.

This is because of 2 reasons.

The first one is because most utility scale solar is in locations not affected by grid constraints.

The second one is that home / business solar is connected to local DNO grids. At the moment as not very many connections to the DNO have solar, the excess from each DNO connection is very much soaked up by local demand.

Australia on the other hand is being affected by this issue due to the much larger share of connections having solar and local grids do sometimes run out of demand for it to supply. This is one reason Australia are pushing for more home batteries.
 

HSTEd

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In extremis, if the small scale solar situation becomes problematic, we can just attach large heating elements, probably electrode boilers, to the distribution system to soak up any power that cannot be exported. Electrode boilers in particular can be connected at any voltage level up to ~33kV without transformers.

The marginal cost of solar PV production is zero and the export rate most solar is paid is very small (and would have to be paid in a curtailment scenario anyway!).

The ramp capability of such heaters is so large that it would allow any "curtailed" solar to act as spinning reserve by controlling the heaters
 
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The Ham

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Yet another story about capacity being added:

UK’s largest power-generating solar farm approved amid energy crisis | The Independent https://share.google/s9q5uVodjxeRnawzm

The government has approved a solar energy project in Lincolnshire, poised to become the UK’s largest by power generation.

The Springwell Solar Farm, an 800-megawatt development, will feature battery storage and grid connection infrastructure in North Kesteven.

Developers claim it could power over 180,000 homes annually, equivalent to half the households across Lincolnshire.

Energy minister Michael Shanks said: “We are driving further and faster for clean homegrown power that we control to protect the British people and bring down bills for good.

“It is crucial we learn the lessons of the conflict in the Middle East – solar is one of the cheapest forms of power available and is how we get off the rollercoaster of international fossil fuel markets and secure our own energy independence.”

It comes alongside recent measures to roll out plug-in solar in UK stores, fitting solar on homes as standard and fast-tracking the next renewables auction to July this year."

Earlier this month, it was revealed renewables generated a record share of the UK’s electricity in 2025, according to provisional figures from the Energy Department (Desnz).

Springwell is the 25th nationally significant clean energy project approved by the Government since it came into office, which it says together will provide enough energy to power the equivalent of more than 12.5 million homes.

The data, released on Thursday, shows that output from renewable technologies such as wind and solar accounted for 52.5 per cent of electricity generation last year.

Together they generated 152.5 terrawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity – an increase of 5.7 per cent compared to 2024.

Desnz said the rise was driven by more renewables being rolled out across the UK, coupled with more favourable weather conditions.

The UK added 3.8 gigawatts (GW) of renewable capacity to the grid, bringing the total to 65.1 GW, up from 61.3 GW in 2024 and 9.3 GW in 2010, the figures show.

The thing I noticed about those numbers about growth in renewables, between 2024 to 2025 the increase was nearly 41% of the total capacity in 2010.

If anyone had predicted that level of growth in a single year for 15 years time a lot of people wouldn't have believed them, especially not if it was also said that royal capacity would be around 9 times the total.

Given the shift to EV's and heat pumps and generally the electrification of our energy, it's not impossible that I've the next 15 years we could see that repeat again, so total renewals being 9 times higher 0.55TW and an increase of 25GW.

To put that into perseverance here's what Google AI suggests is the total amount of energy used:

UK Total Energy Demand by Fuel Type (2024/2025 Estimates)
The final energy consumption by fuel type, based on 2024 data (published in 2025), is broken down as follows:

Oil (Petrol & Diesel): ~58.2 mtoe (~677 TWh with cars and vans accounting for around 400 TWh of this)— ~45.4%
Natural Gas: ~37.1 mtoe (~431 TWh) — ~29.0%
Electricity: ~23.4 mtoe (~272 TWh) — ~18.3%
Bioenergy, Heat, and Waste: ~8.5 mtoe (~99 TWh) — ~6.6%
Coal & Others: ~0.8 mtoe (~9 TWh) — ~0.6%

It also suggests that 43% of the above energy is imported.

That means that the total is 1,500 TWh, given renewables (excluding wood burning) was 103 TWh last year, a 9 fold increase to 2004 would be 927 TWh (61.8% of current energy use) it's would at first glance apear possible (although would require a lot of policy carrot and sick)

However, switching to EV's (possibly 95 of all cars) and ASHP (in the numbers required to hit that target) could actually reduce overall energy demand by 33% (including reduced refinery need and energy to transport oil and it's products).

As such 927 TWh out of a total of 1,000 TWh would almost certainly be impossible with current demand. Especially given aviation and marine fuel is likely to be hard to impact within that timeline.

There are a few things which could increase the total energy need

For example, potential at the lower end of total impact, we are likely to see population growth and demographic changes:
- a lower total number of children, as it's been reported that we've already passed peak primary school aged population, with secondary schools likely to see this hit them in the next few years
- quite significant increase in older people (total number and percentage of population), whilst they may not commute to work and typically do less driving some of them can have quite high energy use in the form of aviation travel, having large homes with a limited number of people in them and requiring the room temperature to be warmer (or if they are a widow or widower being able to set the room temperature higher than their other half would set it to) - as I've said not all, so there's could be some who's lifestyles mean that they reduce energy needs as they retire.

One which could potentially have a big impact on total energy use (especially if there's reliable times of negative energy costs) is green hydrogen production

Another factor which could see higher energy need is exporting energy to other countries if they shift to electrification of their energy use (industrial, EV's & ASHP) but don't manage to install as much green energy as fast.
 

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