What could an “ideal” Bristol service recast look like?

[cle]

I fully agree. It’s about broadening the ability to commute to these thriving regional centres. Bristol is also that - and of course has its own more local rail revolution happening.

Cherry Hinton to Bath a couple of times a year isn’t that.

So yes, nice that certain ad hoc and quirky journeys person are now better serviced, but they aren’t what EWR is ‘thinking’ about. Cherry Hinton isn’t even that certain. I do hope it happens though. But as I said, I think Cambridge needs (and the places around it need more) - doubling of all the local services, in time. More than eg a service to Leeds.

 

[The exile]

I fully agree. It’s about broadening the ability to commute to these thriving regional centres. Bristol is also that - and of course has its own more local rail revolution happening.

Cherry Hinton to Bath a couple of times a year isn’t that.

So yes, nice that certain ad hoc and quirky journeys person are now better serviced, but they aren’t what EWR is ‘thinking’ about. Cherry Hinton isn’t even that certain. I do hope it happens though. But as I said, I think Cambridge needs (and the places around it need more) - doubling of all the local services, in time. More than eg a service to Leeds.

Indeed - and while there is almost certainly demand for a cross- Oxford service, I would expect that the prime movers in that would be for journeys such as Oxford Parkway to “the West” and Milton Keynes to Swindon rather than Cambridge to Bath. Regional Express Bristol - Milton Keynes and another one Cambridge to Oxford has less potential for spreading delays with probably little loss of potential patronage.

 

[cle]

I’m torn on Bristol - MKC. Mainly due to Oxford.

It’s like Birmingham - Cambridge at Peterborough. Nice connectivity but crossing the mainline kills capacity and might be better having two terminators either side than a single long distance trundler with plenty of delay risk.

I’d do Bristol - Oxford - Moor St (to be ignored for Briz/Brum journeys of course) and EWR goes to Cowley and the bays.

 

[The exile]

I’m torn on Bristol - MKC. Mainly due to Oxford.

It’s like Birmingham - Cambridge at Peterborough. Nice connectivity but crossing the mainline kills capacity and might be better having two terminators either side than a single long distance trundler with plenty of delay risk.

I’d do Bristol - Oxford - Moor St (to be ignored for Briz/Brum journeys of course) and EWR goes to Cowley and the bays.

The driver for me is Oxford Parkway.

 

[Starmill]

The ORR dataset is based on a comprehensive administrative source, it is prepared by professional statisticians, and it is published as accredited official statistics. It is far superior as evidence to anything else we have.

It's reliable data alright. Nobody doubts it, that I've read? Certainly it's far from perfect but it's not something I'd be worried about.

What I've repeatedly challenged you on is your use of those data to draw conclusions which are unfounded.

The economic value is beneficial but its marginal. What's changed is the recognition that it is not as beneficial economically as local connectivity with the nearest fast growing big city, a relatively recent economic feature of the UK outside London.

Changed how? And by whom?

What Stamford, Oakham and Melton Mowbray need is a decent train service to Nottingham, their nearest regional big city.

I suspect everyone would agree with that. However I'm not sure how it can realistically be provided given the high priority for trains from Nottingham to serve Leicester. It would not fly if you tried to take away the through trains between Melton Mowbray and Leicester, or cut capacity between Loughborough and Leicester.

A Peterborough - Nottingham service running via Loughborough is the only good fit but this would be an enormous challenge to fit in. Much easier would be an extension of the Birmingham - Leicester services to Peterborough. Both proposals would be intensively subsidy-hungry compared with what's there today.

The ORR data is the evidence of the significance of rail commuting for the Cambridge economy.

It isn't. That's not a suitable method for doing economic appraisal.

Further reading can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/webtag-tag-unit-a1-1-cost-benefit-analysis-may-2018

 

[Magdalia]

What I've repeatedly challenged you on is your use of those data to draw conclusions which are unfounded.

I don't draw any conclusions, but I do make inferences on the basis of the statistical evidence.

Changed how? And by whom?

Try reading "Growth A Reckoning" by Daniel Susskind, published in 2024. It is a very thought provoking analysis of what drives economic growth. I don't agree with all of his analysis, but he is right that higher productivity drives growth, and that new ideas and innovation are what drive higher productivity.

Susskind is very dismissive of the part played by infrastructure investment, land use planning and education, all of which have been regarded as drivers of economic growth in the past. These are correlations, not cause and effect, higher productivity through innovation is the confounding variable. My view is that infrastructure investment, land use planning and education do matter, but only when their absence is a constraint on innovation and productivity growth. What I see happening in Cambridge is innovation being constrained by poor infrastructure and lack of houses. High productivity employment and innovation is mainly in and around big cities, because of agglomeration effects, and I suspect that it is happening in places like Bristol too.

More people being able to work in Cambridge, and to get between Oxford and Cambridge, is going to increase the UK's capacity for innovation and productivity growth. But a few more people making long distance journeys is not going to have a significant impact on either innovation or productivity.

Further reading can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/webtag-tag-unit-a1-1-cost-benefit-analysis-may-2018

Cost benefit analysis is a much misused tool. It was designed for small investment projects with a quick return in an era of low inflation and low interest rates, things like whether a manufacturing company should buy a new machine tool. It has never been a suitable tool for assessing big infrastructure investment projects which take a long time to deliver, and that's especially so when inflation and interest rates are high. And it is about as much use as a chocolate teapot for assessing what innovation and high productivity will result from an investment. The success of East West Rail will be through how many innovation startups on the Oxford Cambridge corridor turn into big successful companies like Raspberry Pi, ARM or Abcam, something that's impossible to estimate in a cost benefit analysis.

 

[Starmill]

Cost benefit analysis is a much misused tool. It was designed for small investment projects with a quick return in an era of low inflation and low interest rates, things like whether a manufacturing company should buy a new machine tool. It has never been a suitable tool for assessing big infrastructure investment projects which take a long time to deliver, and that's especially so when inflation and interest rates are high. And it is about as much use as a chocolate teapot for assessing what innovation and high productivity will result from an investment. The success of East West Rail will be through how many innovation startups on the Oxford Cambridge corridor turn into big successful companies like Raspberry Pi, ARM or Abcam, something that's impossible to estimate in a cost benefit analysis.

I'm afraid this is quite far from the truth. WebTAG isn't perfect, but it is far closer to the economic reality than Susskind's book is. It's true some wider benefits are hard to monetise, but that doesn’t mean they're impossible. In any case it's the law that these processes are followed when you're spending such enormous chunks of public money on things. Which is a good thing, because the alternative is that the Prime Minister might get to decide to do a Donald Trump.

 

[Topological]

As an economist, I do see some sense in what Susskind is saying. Get more from the same resources and you have more. That is growth.

However, the way it is presented here misses the point on infrastructure. If you have a resource in Bath, another in Milton Keynes and another in Bedford, then you gain more when you connect those resources than leaving each to its own. Absent the infrastructure, many resources remain unconnected and far below their productive capabilities. The argument is less about doing what you do better, more about being able to do new things that are more productive than what you can do now.

So really, the better connected we are, the better we can identify what exactly it is we can do better with our resources. In short, Bristol needs connecting to Cambridge, even if no one is making the full trip at the moment.

We could do with a train from Manchester to Cambridge as well. WCML and turn off at Bletchley would be great. That is outwith the discussion of Bristol, but my reasoning for stating the sense stems from exactly the same arguments as having a Bristol to Cambridge.

Then we are not just talking about startups on the Oxford-Cambridge corridor, but wider with associated wider benefits.

 

[William3000]

I’m torn on Bristol - MKC. Mainly due to Oxford.

It’s like Birmingham - Cambridge at Peterborough. Nice connectivity but crossing the mainline kills capacity and might be better having two terminators either side than a single long distance trundler with plenty of delay risk.

I’d do Bristol - Oxford - Moor St (to be ignored for Briz/Brum journeys of course) and EWR goes to Cowley and the bays.

The Cross Country line and the East Coast Mainline are effectively kept separate at Peterborough. They then run alongside each other between Helpston and Peterborough albeit the ECML down slow and Cross Country line eastbound (not sure which is up and down) effectively duplex for a short distance.

 

[The exile]

Th

The Cross Country line and the East Coast Mainline are effectively kept separate at Peterborough. They then run alongside each other between Helpston and Peterborough albeit the ECML down slow and Cross Country line eastbound (not sure which is up and down) effectively duplex for a short distance.

That is of course something that cannot be achieved at Oxford - at least not without incredibly expensive (if even possible) new infrastructure.

 

[cle]

Even still, at Oxford a p4/5 and p1-3 (future 0?) split would keep things tidier as it keeps growing in service.

Bristol, back to topic, is at least provisioned with a lot of platforms (and the historical shed) for options, even if through running and building out a proper S Bahn for the area with good colour coding, branding and signage - would be best.

 

[BayPaul]

A few ideas that I don't think have come up yet...
I'd like to see Portsmouth - Cardiff 'promoted' to an intercity service, with fewer stops, higher speeds and improved trains. This service connects some large population centres, has poor competing roads and is pretty crowded.

This would obviously be expensive, as it would need infrastructure improvements to allow a stopper to be overtaken and higher speeds, but on a speculative thread I think its worth considering.

This would obviously mean a second Southampton - Bristol service would be needed. I wonder about extending it to Brighton, taking over a Southern semi-fast path. Obviously it would be run with bi-modes that could use 3rd rail. Probably a bad idea for importing delays, but it would help connect the South Coast.

 

[PTR 444]

A few ideas that I don't think have come up yet...
I'd like to see Portsmouth - Cardiff 'promoted' to an intercity service, with fewer stops, higher speeds and improved trains. This service connects some large population centres, has poor competing roads and is pretty crowded.

This would obviously be expensive, as it would need infrastructure improvements to allow a stopper to be overtaken and higher speeds, but on a speculative thread I think its worth considering.

This would obviously mean a second Southampton - Bristol service would be needed. I wonder about extending it to Brighton, taking over a Southern semi-fast path. Obviously it would be run with bi-modes that could use 3rd rail. Probably a bad idea for importing delays, but it would help connect the South Coast.

Not a bad idea, although will most likely need some adjustments to the network for it to fit in.

Realistically speaking, I think the only stops you could remove from the Cardiff - Portsmouth service are Filton Abbey Wood, Bradford-on-Avon and Trowbridge, and even then that would likely be dependent on implementation of the improved MetroWest service pattern.

It would be great if such a service could be operated with Class 800/802 units, or a future dual voltage bi-mode if one becomes available.

 

[NCT]

A few ideas that I don't think have come up yet...
I'd like to see Portsmouth - Cardiff 'promoted' to an intercity service, with fewer stops, higher speeds and improved trains. This service connects some large population centres, has poor competing roads and is pretty crowded.

This would obviously be expensive, as it would need infrastructure improvements to allow a stopper to be overtaken and higher speeds, but on a speculative thread I think its worth considering.

This would obviously mean a second Southampton - Bristol service would be needed. I wonder about extending it to Brighton, taking over a Southern semi-fast path. Obviously it would be run with bi-modes that could use 3rd rail. Probably a bad idea for importing delays, but it would help connect the South Coast.

It's not a particularly long distance, and the locations served aren't that big. Between Cardiff and Bristol, the only local stations are Patchway and Filton Abbey Wood. Patchway need to be served as Cardiff - Bristol is the only suitable candidate service to serve it. Removing Filton Abbey Wood (which currently is on the Exeter service) would mean it losing northbound connectivity.

Between Bristol and Salisbury there aren't any stops you can pull. The market isn't big enough for anything more than a 2tph service. For this kind of geography you want to optimise the timetable to services connect at network nodes to attract passengers you can't provide direct trains for. Lengthening all services to 5 cars would be the way to create sufficient capacity. Given the generally low line speeds and stop frequency, you actually want regional rolling stock (at the comfort end not the metro end) to minimise dwell times.

 

[Topological]

It's not a particularly long distance, and the locations served aren't that big. Between Cardiff and Bristol, the only local stations are Patchway and Filton Abbey Wood. Patchway need to be served as Cardiff - Bristol is the only suitable candidate service to serve it. Removing Filton Abbey Wood (which currently is on the Exeter service) would mean it losing northbound connectivity.

Between Bristol and Salisbury there aren't any stops you can pull. The market isn't big enough for anything more than a 2tph service. For this kind of geography you want to optimise the timetable to services connect at network nodes to attract passengers you can't provide direct trains for. Lengthening all services to 5 cars would be the way to create sufficient capacity. Given the generally low line speeds and stop frequency, you actually want regional rolling stock (at the comfort end not the metro end) to minimise dwell times.

Agreed

This is the same with the Marches and countless other lines. YES the trains go between big cities, but they are the way to provide service to many small towns on the route. Speeds are not high and you want to give everyone the best service. I do much prefer the TfW 197s with their wide mid carriage doors, even when travelling end to end, because I know that we will not be long at each station and that the people leaving and joining the train will be happier than watching the limited stop ones passing them by. There are other platforms available, and no doubt GWR will go for something different, but the idea of the 197 is basically right for a route like Portsmouth to Cardiff.

Filton Abbey Wood feels like a place that will grow. I may be wrong because I am not in Bristol Planning, but I would be surprised if it does not justify more than its current service soon.

 

[NCT]

Filton Abbey Wood feels like a place that will grow. I may be wrong because I am not in Bristol Planning, but I would be surprised if it does not justify more than its current service soon.

Filton Abbey Wood justifies a turn-up-and-go service. Filton isn't just a residential trip generator - it's an employment attractor too (MOD, UWE). 2tph Henbury, 2tph Cardiff and 2tph Gloucester should all call. (I'd up Henbury to 4tph if it can be pathed through Temple Meads - Brabazon will need it).

 

[JohnRegular]

I think the 'what stops could be pulled from the Portsmouth-Cardiff services?' discussion has been had before, and IMO the answer is probably none of them.

Filton isn't some wayside halt, it is a well used station next to a large employment site (MOD), close to a university campus, and otherwise near lots of housing.

Bradford-on-Avon is also very well used, especially relative to the size of the town it serves. Perhaps if there were 3tph stopping.

Trowbridge is around the same size as Salisbury and growing. The station is busy and justifies the call.

Some trains stop at Dilton Marsh, those calls could probably be dropped!

Portsmouth-Cardiff will never be an 'Intercity' service and that's fine.

 

[Manutd1999]

My proposal was to remove the Filton, Patchway and Severn Tunnel Jn stops, plus perhaps also Bradford-upon-Avon.

The stops would instead served my 2ph Taunton-Cardiff and 2ph Gloucester-Frome/Salisbury.

Filton Abbey Wood would also get 4ph MetroWest to Henbury and Yate.

 

[Dr Day]

Surprised for a speculative thread there aren’t more calls for 3 if not 4 tph on all commuter corridors- including Cardiff serving the proposed new stations. Ok, there are plenty of capacity constraints but surely an ‘ideal’ commuter service would have more than 2 tph at stations within half an hour of the key employment areas?

 

[The exile]

Surprised for a speculative thread there aren’t more calls for 3 if not 4 tph on all commuter corridors- including Cardiff serving the proposed new stations. Ok, there are plenty of capacity constraints but surely an ‘ideal’ commuter service would have more than 2 tph at stations within half an hour of the key employment areas?

Quite a few are still getting used to the “luxury” (!) of 2tph so need to recover from the shock first. But yes, I agree.

 

[NCT]

'Ideal' needs to be for the taxpayer too.

 

[The exile]

'Ideal' needs to be for the taxpayer too.

Surely not in the speculative forum!

 

[lachlan]

Wouldn't ideal for the taxpayer be zero services - so completely at odds with "ideal" for the rail user!

 

[The exile]

Wouldn't ideal for the taxpayer be zero services - so completely at odds with "ideal" for the rail user!

Not if they are “revenue positive” - ie make a profit. And indeed, given the fact that the taxpayer in question may also be a passenger, or live on a road where congestion has been reduced by people switching to the train - “taxpayers’ interests” in fact not entirely financial.

 

[freetoview33]

Here is my idea, now this is contigent on plans on other parts of the network and some infrastructure improvements to enable it.

London Paddington - Old Oak Common - Reading - Swindon - Chippenham - Bath Spa - Bristol Temple Meads - Weston-super-Mare. 1tph, GWR, 9 Car Class 800.
Increased from every 2 hours to every hour, to give a good fast service from Bristol to Weston-super-Mare.

London Paddington - Old Oak Common - Reading - Didcot Parkway - Swindon - Chippenham - Bath Spa - Bristol Temple Meads. 1tph, GWR, 9 Car Class 800.
Current service, as is, no changes.

London Paddington - Old Oak Common - Swindon - Bristol Parkway, Split 1 Bristol Temple Meads, Split 2 Newport - Cardiff Central. 2tph, GWR, 2 x 5 Car Class 800.
A reintroduction of the super fast services from London, but splitting at Bristol Parkway to save paths in/out of London.

London Paddington - Old Oak Common - Reading - Swindon - Bristol Parkway - Newport - Cardiff Parkway - Cardiff Central - Bridgend - Port Talbot Parkway - Neath - Swansea. 1tph, GWR, 9 Car Class 800.
Current service, as is, no changes.

London Paddington - Old Oak Common - Reading - Swindon - Bristol Parkway - Newport - Cardiff Parkway - Cardiff Central - Bridgend - Port Talbot Parkway - Neath - Llanelli - Carmarthen. 1tph, GWR, 9 Car Class 800.
The current Cardiff terminating service but extended to Carmarthern, this is instead of the new Lumo service, this would better serve South Wales and give better links to/from West Wales.

Manchester Piccadilly - Stockport - Macclesfield - Stoke-on-Trent - Stafford - Wolverhampton - Birmingham New Street - Worcestershire Parkway - Cheltenham Spa - Bristol Parkway - Bristol Temple Meads - Taunton - Tiverton Parkway - Exeter St David's, Extension 2hrly Dawlish - Newton Abbot - Torquay - Paignton. 1tph, XC, 1 X 7 Car Class 8XX.
The current Manchester to Bristol service, extended to Exeter with 2 hourly extensions to Paignton, Paignton sees a lot of demand from Bristol. Also some better rolling stock for XC.

Newcastle - Durham - Darlington - York - Doncaster - Derby - Burton-on-Trent - Birmingham New Street - Worcestershire Parkway - Cheltenham Spa - Bristol Parkway - Bristol Temple Meads - Taunton - Tiverton Parkway - Exeter St David's, Extension 2hrly Dawlish - Newton Abbot - Totnes - Ivybridge - Plymouth. 1tph, XC, 1 X 7 Car Class 8XX.
The current service, but focusing on the core of the route, as customers can change at Exeter for services to all of the South West and better rolling stock too.

Cardiff Central - Cardiff Parkway - Newport - Filton Abbey Wood - Bristol Temple Meads - Bath Spa - Bradford-on-Avon - Trowbridge - Westbury - Warminster - Wilton Parkway - Salisbury - Romsey - Southampton Central. 1tph, GWR, 1 X 5 Car ClassXXX.
As the current service but stopped at Southampton Central, as better connections can be provided from there, with an EMU express service from Southampton to Portsmouth.

Cardiff Central - Cardiff Parkway - Newport - Filton Abbey Wood - Bristol Temple Meads - Weston-super-Mare - Highbridge & Burnham - Bridgwater - Taunton - Wellington - Tiverton Parkway - Cullompton - Exeter St David's. 1tph, GWR, 1 X 5 Car ClassXXX.
As the current service but with a more clockface timetable than currently, with stops removed to speed up the service, and local stops moved onto stopping services.

Worcester Foregate Street - Worcester Shrub Hill - Ashchurch for Tewkesbury - Cheltenham Spa - Cam & Dursley - Bristol Parkway - Filton Abbey Wood - Bristol Temple Meads - Bath Spa - Bradford-on-Avon - Trowbridge - Westbury - Warminster - Wilton Parkway - Salisbury - Romsey - Southampton Central. 1tph, GWR, 1 X 5 Car ClassXXX.
The current service between Worcester and Bristol but with stops removed to make this service semi-fast, intermediate stops moved to other services, also providing a 2nd semi-fast service between Bristol and Southampton, to connect with a new fast service to/from Brighton.

Worcester Foregate Street - Worcester Shrub Hill - Ashchurch for Tewkesbury - Cheltenham Spa - Cam & Dursley - Bristol Parkway - Filton Abbey Wood - Bristol Temple Meads - Weston-super-Mare - Highbridge & Burnham - Bridgwater - Taunton - Wellington - Tiverton Parkway - Cullompton - Exeter St David's. 1tph, GWR, 1 X 5 Car ClassXXX.
An additional service to/from Worcester, and an additional service between Bristol and Exeter. To provide intermediate stations such as Ashchurch and Bridgwater with a half hour service without slowing down Intercity services.

Bristol Temple Meads - Bath Spa - Bradford-on-Avon - Trowbridge - Westbury - Frome - Bruton - Castle Cary - Yeovil Pen Mill - Thornford - Yetminster - Chetnole - Maiden Newton - Dorchester West - Upwey - Weymouth. 1tph, GWR, 1 X 5 Car ClassXXX.
The current service, but speeded up with local calls in and around Bristol and Bath removed and frequency improved to finally provide an hourly service.

Bristol Temple Meads - Bath Spa - Chippenham - Swindon - Wantage & Gove - Oxford. 1tph, GWR, 1 X 5 Car ClassXXX.
As the "new" service to be "re"introduced soon.

Cardiff Central - Cardiff East - Cardiff Parkway - Newport West - Newport - Somerton - Llanwern - Magor & Undy - Severn Tunnel Junction - Pilning - Patchway - Filton Abbey Wood - Lockleaze - Ashley Down - Stapleton Road - Lawrence Hill - Bristol Temple Meads. 2tph, Transport for Wales, 3 Car Class 197.
This would take over stops at Pilning (Have a further idea for how this would be served) and Patchway to allow speeded up GWR services from Cardiff to Bristol (See Below)

Gloucester - Cam & Dursley - Charfield - Yate - Bristol Parkway - Filton Abbey Wood - Lockleaze - Ashley Down - Stapleton Road - Lawrence Hill - Bristol Temple Meads. 2tph, GWR, 3 Car ClassXXX.
Effectively a metro service between Bristol and Gloucester. There isn't a need for additional services between Gloucester and Cheltenham Spa. With other planned services, and changes can be made at Bristol Parkway or Cheltenham Spa.

Weston-super-Mare - Weston Milton - Worle - Yatton - Nailsea & Backwell - Long Ashton - Parson Street - Bedminster - Bristol Temple Meads - Lawrence Hill - Stapleton Road - Montpelier - Redland - Clifton Down - Sea Mills - Shirehampton - Portway Park & Ride - Avonmouth Extension hrly St Andrews Road - Severn Beach. 2tph, GWR, 3 Car Class XXX.
Service every 30 mins, with an hourly extension to Severn Beach.

Portishead - Portbury - Pill - Ashton Gate - Parson Street - Bedminster - Bristol Temple Meads - Lawrence Hill - Stapleton Road - Ashley Down - Lockleaze - Filton Abbey Wood - Bristol Brabazon - Henbury. 1tph, GWR, 3 Car ClassXXX.
The current Bristol Temple Meads to Filton Abbey Wood service, as it is proposed to extend it to Henbury and Portishead respectively once the stations are opened.

Portishead - Portbury - Pill - Ashton Gate - Parson Street - Bedminster - Bristol Temple Meads - St Annes Park - Keynsham - Saltford - Oldfield Park - Bath Spa - Corsham - Chippenham - Royal Wotton Bassett - Swindon. 1tph, GWR, 3 Car ClassXXX.
A second train per hour to/from Portishead to Swindon, via a new station at Corsham.

Severn Beach - Henbury - Bristol Brabazon - Filton Abbey Wood - Lockleaze - Ashley Down - Stapleton Road - Lawrence Hill - Bristol Temple Meads - St Annes Park - Keynsham - Saltford - Oldfield Park - Bath Spa - Freshford - Avoncliff - Bradford-on-Avon - Trowbridge - Westbury. 1tph, GWR, 3 Car ClassXXX.
A new service from Severn Beach via the Henbury loop, Bristol Temple Meads and onwards to Westbury, to provide better links to the new arena.

Other services
Swindon - Royal Wootton Bassett - Chippenham - Melksham - Trowbridge - Westbury - Frome - Bruton - Castle Cary - Somerton - Taunton
Swindon - Royal Wootton Bassett - Chippenham - Melksham - Trowbridge - Westbury - Dilton Marsh - Warminster - Wilton Parkway - Salisbury

 

[mds86]

Here is my idea, now this is contigent on plans on other parts of the network and some infrastructure improvements to enable it.

London Paddington - Old Oak Common - Reading - Swindon - Chippenham - Bath Spa - Bristol Temple Meads - Weston-super-Mare. 1tph, GWR, 9 Car Class 800.
Increased from every 2 hours to every hour, to give a good fast service from Bristol to Weston-super-Mare.

London Paddington - Old Oak Common - Reading - Didcot Parkway - Swindon - Chippenham - Bath Spa - Bristol Temple Meads. 1tph, GWR, 9 Car Class 800.
Current service, as is, no changes.

London Paddington - Old Oak Common - Swindon - Bristol Parkway, Split 1 Bristol Temple Meads, Split 2 Newport - Cardiff Central. 2tph, GWR, 2 x 5 Car Class 800.
A reintroduction of the super fast services from London, but splitting at Bristol Parkway to save paths in/out of London.

London Paddington - Old Oak Common - Reading - Swindon - Bristol Parkway - Newport - Cardiff Parkway - Cardiff Central - Bridgend - Port Talbot Parkway - Neath - Swansea. 1tph, GWR, 9 Car Class 800.
Current service, as is, no changes.

London Paddington - Old Oak Common - Reading - Swindon - Bristol Parkway - Newport - Cardiff Parkway - Cardiff Central - Bridgend - Port Talbot Parkway - Neath - Llanelli - Carmarthen. 1tph, GWR, 9 Car Class 800.
The current Cardiff terminating service but extended to Carmarthern, this is instead of the new Lumo service, this would better serve South Wales and give better links to/from West Wales.

Manchester Piccadilly - Stockport - Macclesfield - Stoke-on-Trent - Stafford - Wolverhampton - Birmingham New Street - Worcestershire Parkway - Cheltenham Spa - Bristol Parkway - Bristol Temple Meads - Taunton - Tiverton Parkway - Exeter St David's, Extension 2hrly Dawlish - Newton Abbot - Torquay - Paignton. 1tph, XC, 1 X 7 Car Class 8XX.
The current Manchester to Bristol service, extended to Exeter with 2 hourly extensions to Paignton, Paignton sees a lot of demand from Bristol. Also some better rolling stock for XC.

Newcastle - Durham - Darlington - York - Doncaster - Derby - Burton-on-Trent - Birmingham New Street - Worcestershire Parkway - Cheltenham Spa - Bristol Parkway - Bristol Temple Meads - Taunton - Tiverton Parkway - Exeter St David's, Extension 2hrly Dawlish - Newton Abbot - Totnes - Ivybridge - Plymouth. 1tph, XC, 1 X 7 Car Class 8XX.
The current service, but focusing on the core of the route, as customers can change at Exeter for services to all of the South West and better rolling stock too.

Cardiff Central - Cardiff Parkway - Newport - Filton Abbey Wood - Bristol Temple Meads - Bath Spa - Bradford-on-Avon - Trowbridge - Westbury - Warminster - Wilton Parkway - Salisbury - Romsey - Southampton Central. 1tph, GWR, 1 X 5 Car ClassXXX.
As the current service but stopped at Southampton Central, as better connections can be provided from there, with an EMU express service from Southampton to Portsmouth.

Cardiff Central - Cardiff Parkway - Newport - Filton Abbey Wood - Bristol Temple Meads - Weston-super-Mare - Highbridge & Burnham - Bridgwater - Taunton - Wellington - Tiverton Parkway - Cullompton - Exeter St David's. 1tph, GWR, 1 X 5 Car ClassXXX.
As the current service but with a more clockface timetable than currently, with stops removed to speed up the service, and local stops moved onto stopping services.

Worcester Foregate Street - Worcester Shrub Hill - Ashchurch for Tewkesbury - Cheltenham Spa - Cam & Dursley - Bristol Parkway - Filton Abbey Wood - Bristol Temple Meads - Bath Spa - Bradford-on-Avon - Trowbridge - Westbury - Warminster - Wilton Parkway - Salisbury - Romsey - Southampton Central. 1tph, GWR, 1 X 5 Car ClassXXX.
The current service between Worcester and Bristol but with stops removed to make this service semi-fast, intermediate stops moved to other services, also providing a 2nd semi-fast service between Bristol and Southampton, to connect with a new fast service to/from Brighton.

Worcester Foregate Street - Worcester Shrub Hill - Ashchurch for Tewkesbury - Cheltenham Spa - Cam & Dursley - Bristol Parkway - Filton Abbey Wood - Bristol Temple Meads - Weston-super-Mare - Highbridge & Burnham - Bridgwater - Taunton - Wellington - Tiverton Parkway - Cullompton - Exeter St David's. 1tph, GWR, 1 X 5 Car ClassXXX.
An additional service to/from Worcester, and an additional service between Bristol and Exeter. To provide intermediate stations such as Ashchurch and Bridgwater with a half hour service without slowing down Intercity services.

Bristol Temple Meads - Bath Spa - Bradford-on-Avon - Trowbridge - Westbury - Frome - Bruton - Castle Cary - Yeovil Pen Mill - Thornford - Yetminster - Chetnole - Maiden Newton - Dorchester West - Upwey - Weymouth. 1tph, GWR, 1 X 5 Car ClassXXX.
The current service, but speeded up with local calls in and around Bristol and Bath removed and frequency improved to finally provide an hourly service.

Bristol Temple Meads - Bath Spa - Chippenham - Swindon - Wantage & Gove - Oxford. 1tph, GWR, 1 X 5 Car ClassXXX.
As the "new" service to be "re"introduced soon.

Cardiff Central - Cardiff East - Cardiff Parkway - Newport West - Newport - Somerton - Llanwern - Magor & Undy - Severn Tunnel Junction - Pilning - Patchway - Filton Abbey Wood - Lockleaze - Ashley Down - Stapleton Road - Lawrence Hill - Bristol Temple Meads. 2tph, Transport for Wales, 3 Car Class 197.
This would take over stops at Pilning (Have a further idea for how this would be served) and Patchway to allow speeded up GWR services from Cardiff to Bristol (See Below)

Gloucester - Cam & Dursley - Charfield - Yate - Bristol Parkway - Filton Abbey Wood - Lockleaze - Ashley Down - Stapleton Road - Lawrence Hill - Bristol Temple Meads. 2tph, GWR, 3 Car ClassXXX.
Effectively a metro service between Bristol and Gloucester. There isn't a need for additional services between Gloucester and Cheltenham Spa. With other planned services, and changes can be made at Bristol Parkway or Cheltenham Spa.

Weston-super-Mare - Weston Milton - Worle - Yatton - Nailsea & Backwell - Long Ashton - Parson Street - Bedminster - Bristol Temple Meads - Lawrence Hill - Stapleton Road - Montpelier - Redland - Clifton Down - Sea Mills - Shirehampton - Portway Park & Ride - Avonmouth Extension hrly St Andrews Road - Severn Beach. 2tph, GWR, 3 Car Class XXX.
Service every 30 mins, with an hourly extension to Severn Beach.

Portishead - Portbury - Pill - Ashton Gate - Parson Street - Bedminster - Bristol Temple Meads - Lawrence Hill - Stapleton Road - Ashley Down - Lockleaze - Filton Abbey Wood - Bristol Brabazon - Henbury. 1tph, GWR, 3 Car ClassXXX.
The current Bristol Temple Meads to Filton Abbey Wood service, as it is proposed to extend it to Henbury and Portishead respectively once the stations are opened.

Portishead - Portbury - Pill - Ashton Gate - Parson Street - Bedminster - Bristol Temple Meads - St Annes Park - Keynsham - Saltford - Oldfield Park - Bath Spa - Corsham - Chippenham - Royal Wotton Bassett - Swindon. 1tph, GWR, 3 Car ClassXXX.
A second train per hour to/from Portishead to Swindon, via a new station at Corsham.

Severn Beach - Henbury - Bristol Brabazon - Filton Abbey Wood - Lockleaze - Ashley Down - Stapleton Road - Lawrence Hill - Bristol Temple Meads - St Annes Park - Keynsham - Saltford - Oldfield Park - Bath Spa - Freshford - Avoncliff - Bradford-on-Avon - Trowbridge - Westbury. 1tph, GWR, 3 Car ClassXXX.
A new service from Severn Beach via the Henbury loop, Bristol Temple Meads and onwards to Westbury, to provide better links to the new arena.

Other services
Swindon - Royal Wootton Bassett - Chippenham - Melksham - Trowbridge - Westbury - Frome - Bruton - Castle Cary - Somerton - Taunton
Swindon - Royal Wootton Bassett - Chippenham - Melksham - Trowbridge - Westbury - Dilton Marsh - Warminster - Wilton Parkway - Salisbury

So you're giving Gloucester a 2 tph service to Bristol which will take around 1 hour 10 mins for a journey that can be done in about 45 minutes by car? For my home city with a population of over 130,000 that's rubbish and hardly going to be attractive to get people onto the train. For reference 115k journeys were made between Gloucester and Bristol Temple Meads in 2024/25. For Cam and Dursley you give 4 tph, but Yate is only 2 tph with a lot more commuting to Bristol?

You're also removing the only services that connect Gloucester to Worcester Shrub Hill/Foregate Street, and the majority of services to Ashchurch for Tewkesbury. The services you do provide to Worcester are overkill and one 3 car unit per hour would be more than adequate on all but the busiest of services when in the Bristol area

 

[The exile]

So you're giving Gloucester a 2 tph service to Bristol which will take around 1 hour 10 mins for a journey that can be done in about 45 minutes by car? For my home city with a population of over 130,000 that's rubbish and hardly going to be attractive to get people onto the train. For reference 115k journeys were made between Gloucester and Bristol Temple Meads in 2024/25. For Cam and Dursley you give 4 tph, but Yate is only 2 tph with a lot more commuting to Bristol?

You're also removing the only services that connect Gloucester to Worcester Shrub Hill/Foregate Street, and the majority of services to Ashchurch for Tewkesbury. The services you do provide to Worcester are overkill and one 3 car unit per hour would be more than adequate on all but the busiest of services when in the Bristol area

Indeed - Gloucester gets a raw deal and needs at least one of the Worcester semi fasts to stop (in addition to the Cardiff Birmingham). Charfield will also need serving somehow!
Swindon - Taunton seems a bit like being neat on a map. What Melksham is missing is a direct connection to Bath / Bristol (via a reinstated Bradford north curve and stations at Holt and/or “Trowbridge North”

 

[zwk500]

Weston-super-Mare - Weston Milton - Worle - Yatton - Nailsea & Backwell - Long Ashton - Parson Street - Bedminster - Bristol Temple Meads - Lawrence Hill - Stapleton Road - Montpelier - Redland - Clifton Down - Sea Mills - Shirehampton - Portway Park & Ride - Avonmouth Extension hrly St Andrews Road - Severn Beach. 2tph, GWR, 3 Car Class XXX.
Service every 30 mins, with an hourly extension to Severn Beach.

Portishead - Portbury - Pill - Ashton Gate - Parson Street - Bedminster - Bristol Temple Meads - Lawrence Hill - Stapleton Road - Ashley Down - Lockleaze - Filton Abbey Wood - Bristol Brabazon - Henbury. 1tph, GWR, 3 Car ClassXXX.
The current Bristol Temple Meads to Filton Abbey Wood service, as it is proposed to extend it to Henbury and Portishead respectively once the stations are opened.

Portishead - Portbury - Pill - Ashton Gate - Parson Street - Bedminster - Bristol Temple Meads - St Annes Park - Keynsham - Saltford - Oldfield Park - Bath Spa - Corsham - Chippenham - Royal Wotton Bassett - Swindon. 1tph, GWR, 3 Car ClassXXX.
A second train per hour to/from Portishead to Swindon, via a new station at Corsham.

Severn Beach - Henbury - Bristol Brabazon - Filton Abbey Wood - Lockleaze - Ashley Down - Stapleton Road - Lawrence Hill - Bristol Temple Meads - St Annes Park - Keynsham - Saltford - Oldfield Park - Bath Spa - Freshford - Avoncliff - Bradford-on-Avon - Trowbridge - Westbury. 1tph, GWR, 3 Car ClassXXX.
A new service from Severn Beach via the Henbury loop, Bristol Temple Meads and onwards to Westbury, to provide better links to the new arena.

The 'inner Bristol' services should be as simple as possible, and run as a metro service (i.e. simple paired destination/origin 'lines').

Weston-super-Mare - Severn Beach 1tph
Weston-super-Mare - Avonmouth 1tph
Portishead - Henbury 2tph.

Gives 2tph from Bristol Temple Meads to Weston sM, Portishead, Avonmouth and Henbury, and 4tph between Parson Street and Stapleton Road while keeping the 'metro' services off the Filton Main lines for XC and GWR's longer distance services.
With electrification and growth, this could eventually grow to 3tph on both arms to give 6tph through the 'Core' and a 20-minute service to Clifton Down.

Services from the bath direction should not try and reverse across all 6 tracks, and the arena would be served by running Bristol Temple Meads - Henbury extras at event times.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Portishead - Henbury 2tph.

Whilst I think say the idea of 6tph for Ashely Down is let's say unlikely to happen, I defo think it should get a similar 4tph to what you are proposing for the other suburban stations. And I'd also say as much should be done as possible to allow the Severn Beach line to get 3 or 4tph too.

 

[zwk500]

Whilst I think say the idea of 6tph for Ashely Down is let's say unlikely to happen, I defo think it should get a similar 4tph to what you are proposing for the other suburban stations. And I'd also say as much should be done as possible to allow the Severn Beach line to get 3 or 4tph too.

Remember that under this plan, Filton Abbey Wood to Bristol Temple Meads would have 2tph all-stations from Cardiff Central as well. The Bristol rail network isn't particularly well suited to moving around the city either, so I wouldn't expect heavy rail to be able to fully capture the demand for travel from e.g. Henbury, even if it ran a train every 2 minutes.
Henbury also has to deal with the single track chord at the moment.

On the Severn Beach Line, going any further than the existing service requires more track (maybe not full double-tracking but definitely extending the existing loops at Clifton Down and Avonmouth to take in 2 or 3 stations). However I agree that Clifton Down could really do with at least a 20-minute service, and probably to Avonmouth as well. However Sea Mills and Shirehampton have the A4 Portway bus services and there's Portway P&R competing against the train, which takes quite a long time to loop round Bristol City Centre and drop you at Temple Meads, which isn't all that close to the Harbourside or Old city, even if the office district has largely moved to Redcliff now.