I'm afraid that if you concentrate all the political and economic power in one corner of the country, it will have to pay for services elsewhere for the good of the Realm. That's the way the cookie crumbles.
There is plenty of rail demand for services in the North. The railway establishment needs to concentrate on getting costs down, such as not having leasing costs for depreciated rolling stock.
Merseyrail and T&W Metro disagree.
From the various sources I can gather, in 2018/19 (choosing a pre-Covid year), London Underground and L&SE commuter operators generally generated 20p per passenger km. Interestingly T&W Metro also generated around that, but Merseyrail was only at 12p per pax km.
In 2018/29, London's Bakerloo line (the Cinderella line) carried 118m passenger journeys (published) and generated ~£200-250m in revenue (my triangulation). In the same year Merseyrail's passenger revenue was £63.5m, T&W Metro's was £64.4m.
Merseyrail required a subsidy of £114m, T&W Metro (if my reading of Nexus accounts is correctly) £24.6m.
In other words, T&W Metro's commercial income (passenger and other) account for around 75% of operating costs; Merseyrail's income accounted for less than half of operating costs.
I *think* the financial figures I've quoted are nominal figures for the year 2018/19 - those from actual year statements almost certainly will be, but I might have missed some notes in some of the data tables in my skim reading.
If the 'best in class' systems only generate a small fraction of Bakerloo line revenues and need this level of subsidy, then this is not sustainable or scalable and Treasury will NOT with to replicate this model. Both systems should in the long run aim to generate Bakerloo line levels of income and require no subsidy.
Going back to the thread question 'what could be done to increase rail usage' - I think Merseyside are making progress. There's a lot of high-density development at Baltic Triangle, which along with the proposed Merseyrail station should hopefully represent a significant extension of Liverpool city centre. Birkenhead is currently an embarrassing wasteland, but the
approved masterplans are genuinely encouraging and exciting.
Tyne and Wear seem a bit behind in developing urban regeneration strategies. Gateshead now has a
regeneration plan but it looks less mature than the Wirral masterplans. Freight village has started on site which will add some foot passengers to Gateshead Station, but the density is disappointing. Overall the scale of ambition with regards to the town centre of the Baltic Quarter is pointing in the right direction. There are signs of activity in North Tyneside with the biggest current opportunity being the Beacon Centre in North Shields. The biggest impact would come from relocating North Tyneside Council and Cobalt Park to urban settings - around Northumberland Park station and Wallsend town centre seem to have ample developable land.
If Greater Liverpool and T&W can demonstrate ability to reurbanise, grow public transport demand and reduce subsidy requirements, then existing funding sources can be diverted to new corridors and Treasury will feel greater confidence in investing in urban rail outside of London and the South East.
Data sources
This release contains information on rail finance in Great Britain
dataportal.orr.gov.uk
Data on light rail and tram systems in England, including statistics on Glasgow Underground and Edinburgh Tram systems, produced by Department for Transport.
www.gov.uk
Quarterly performance reports to the Board on our operational and financial performance, and on the delivery and budget performance of our Investment Programme
tfl.gov.uk
Questions to the Mayor: For each year 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 how many people used each tube line in London?
www.london.gov.uk
Nexus' Annual Reports and Accounts appear here along with other Nexus publications available for
www.nexus.org.uk