Effect of higher petrol prices on rail usage?

[absolutelymilk]

I can't see another thread on this, so just wondering if there's been any short-term impact on rail usage due to higher fuel prices since the start of March?

 

[The Ham]

I can't see another thread on this, so just wondering if there's been any short-term impact on rail usage due to higher fuel prices since the start of March?

Potentially, although it's unlikely that we'd see anything from the data for ac while.

The impact is likely to be limited unless fuel prices stay high for a prolonged period.

The most likely change could be a shift from air to rail if regional fights see cuts to reduce the fuel burn.

 

[Dr Hoo]

Could make a difference with intermodal freight. HGV costs are far more affected by diesel prices than rail haulage.

 

[The Planner]

How should the railway react to an influx of new users due to a prolonged increase in the cost of petrol?

If the price of petrol remains high, as it is expected to do, how should the railway react to an influx of new users. Was there any noticeable uptake of train usage during previous occasions where this had happened, should? Services on branch lines and less used rail corridors be scaled back in...

www.railforums.co.uk

One from a few weeks back.

Its any shortages that will be the issue. Even £2 a litre of unleaded won't make a noticable dent.

 

[Starmill]

Last time there was a shock the effects on usage were so small there wasn't a lot to notice. At the end of the day the service is either nonexistent or useless for most existing car journeys. Even a 100% increase in fuel prices is likely to result in... People finding more money to spend on car fuel and less on something else.

 

[evergreenadam]

Potentially, although it's unlikely that we'd see anything from the data for ac while.

The impact is likely to be limited unless fuel prices stay high for a prolonged period.

The most likely change could be a shift from air to rail if regional fights see cuts to reduce the fuel burn.

I saw the latest airline on the publicly subsidised Newquay to Gatwick air route has thrown in the towel.

 

[coppercapped]

The effect of higher petrol prices cannot be seen in isolation. The price of crude oil has practically doubled over the past two months so the costs of everything, fertiliser, food, manufacturing, distribution, everything, will rise if the price remains high. This will reduce economic activity worldwide so the demand for discretionary passenger rail travel - in fact discretionary travel by all modes - will fall until a new equilibrium is found.

 

[Starmill]

I saw the latest airline on the publicly subsidised Newquay to Gatwick air route has thrown in the towel.

Indeed. Cornwall Council has decided it doesn't want to continue its substantial contribution under the Public Service Obligation regime so the Skybus service is ending by the last day of next month. I think a very minimal commercial service is being introduced afterwards by Easyjet.

 

[AlterEgo]

The effect of higher petrol prices cannot be seen in isolation. The price of crude oil has practically doubled over the past two months so the costs of everything, fertiliser, food, manufacturing, distribution, everything, will rise if the price remains high. This will reduce economic activity worldwide so the demand for discretionary passenger rail travel - in fact discretionary travel by all modes - will fall until a new equilibrium is found.

Indeed, very astute. I wonder how much of the railway's revenue is from discretionary travel.

 

[dk1]

During the fuel blockades in the early 2000s there was a noticeable uplift in passenger numbers on the trains but it was only short lived.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Apr 2026 ==

I must say though that I have had friends saying they are using the train for longer journeys at the moment because of the worry of potentially not being able to fill up. How much of that is fuelled (excuse the pun) by social media hype I’m not sure.

 

[philosopher]

I saw the latest airline on the publicly subsidised Newquay to Gatwick air route has thrown in the towel.

I think it could cause some shift from aviation to rail, particularly on the Anglo Scottish routes if airlines increase air fares and / or reduce frequencies due to higher jet fuel prices and possible shortages of jet fuel. Some passengers may decide rail is the safer option if they think airlines will cancel flights due to jet fuel shortages.

 

[Steddenm]

I was on the 1033 Kings Cross to Newcastle LNER service today and albeit it was a 5 car Azuma, it was relatively quiet all the way up in both standard and first. Kings Cross and the tube from Liverpool Street to KXSP was also pretty quiet, which for a bank holiday weekend was a bit of a surprise.

The 0851 Southend Victoria to LST was quiet until we got to Billericay but then oddly emptied again at Shenfield (maybe they were getting the Elizabeth Line).

 

[Horizon22]

If there is an impact it will only be on routes which share both rail and road corridors. So something like between Bristol and Reading (versus M4). Or Winchester to Woking (versus M3). Also within urban areas. Where the time and "hassle" factor is not so pronounced between the car and train overall journey, and there are reasonable advance fares or pricing, then you may see some specific swaps. But I imagine the overall impact will be limited.

 

[Oxfordblues]

I seem to recall reading once that something like 60% of urban car journeys are of less than 2 miles. Most of those could be done by bicycle, as in more-developed countries such as The Netherlands. Many people choose to drive because that's what everybody else does and cycling is seen as being slightly-odd. But if there were a petrol shortage I would expect fewer local trips by car and only a marginal effect on rail travel.

 

[Bald Rick]

I was on the 1033 Kings Cross to Newcastle LNER service today and albeit it was a 5 car Azuma, it was relatively quiet all the way up in both standard and first. Kings Cross and the tube from Liverpool Street to KXSP was also pretty quiet, which for a bank holiday weekend was a bit of a surprise.

Easter Saturday is one of the quietest days of the year for rail travel.

Not only rail travel either, anecdata: I was on the M4 at 0830 this morning near Slough, and compared to a normal Saturday at that time it was absolutely dead.

 

[JKF]

I also wonder if there will be any impact on freight - whether flows lost to road might now be less competitive with rail, or not be able to run if we end up with rationing of diesel. One of the Middleton Towers sand flows has just gone over to road haulage for example.

Those new bi-mode electro diesels might also find themselves with a bit more work to do under the wires!

 

[Sonic1234]

But if there were a petrol shortage I would expect fewer local trips by car and only a marginal effect on rail travel.

If you only do short local trips, it can take a while to use a tank of fuel so the cost of filling up is soon forgotten in the same way the big annual costs of having a car (insurance, servicing, MOT) are soon forgotten. So using the car to pop to the supermarket feels like it's free. The separation of paying for travel and the act of travel with cars will always be a problem for public transport, where you are conscious of what each journey costs (and in my opinion is the reasoning behind Project Oval, it makes rail feel a bit more like using the car).

For those near stations (i.e. in urban areas), there may be some switching to rail for medium-distance leisure travel, which may involve going to a different destination.

 

[Llandudno]

During the fuel blockades in the early 2000s there was a noticeable uplift in passenger numbers on the trains but it was only short lived.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Apr 2026 ==

I must say though that I have had friends saying they are using the train for longer journeys at the moment because of the worry of potentially not being able to fill up. How much of that is fuelled (excuse the pun) by social media hype I’m not sure.

And fuelled by the Government ‘assuring’ people that there will not be any supply issues, which results in everyone panic buying fuel….!

 

[Dave61]

I can't see another thread on this, so just wondering if there's been any short-term impact on rail usage due to higher fuel prices since the start of March?

I would think if anything there will be more WFH (where the employer allows it!). Some countries have already enacted such policies.

 

[Bald Rick]

The impact of higher fuel prices on the railfreight industry is rather more than on the road freight industry.

 

[Peterthegreat]

Easter Saturday is one of the quietest days of the year for rail travel.

Not only rail travel either, anecdata: I was on the M4 at 0830 this morning near Slough, and compared to a normal Saturday at that time it was absolutely dead.

Pedant alert.
Today is actually Holy Saturday.
Easter Saturday is next week.
But you are correct. Today is a relatively quiet day for long distance travel.

 

[Sleepy]

I was on the 1033 Kings Cross to Newcastle LNER service today and albeit it was a 5 car Azuma, it was relatively quiet all the way up in both standard and first. Kings Cross and the tube from Liverpool Street to KXSP was also pretty quiet, which for a bank holiday weekend was a bit of a surprise.

The 0851 Southend Victoria to LST was quiet until we got to Billericay but then oddly emptied again at Shenfield (maybe they were getting the Elizabeth Line).

Full & standing 12 car services from Norwich / Ipswich to Liverpool St this morning, obviously day out in London market a bit different to Newcastle for which most people would travel yesterday and return Monday. Having said that surprisingly large numbers still travelling to East Anglia even at lunchtime today (I see some schools only finished for Easter on Thursday while in some areas schools have already had 1 week off) No wonder dft think Greater Anglia is the "golden child" TOC

 

[DarloRich]

Indeed, very astute. I wonder how much of the railway's revenue is from discretionary travel.

A good chunk but you aren't going to see that pay off for a while. People have booked events like London trips months in advance so will still go.

You might see a quicker drop off in people going on the pop in, say York, but I doubt it. People tend to find the cash for a day on the pop!

Give it a few months and see what bookings are like. Will people still book for that show in London in September when the booking window opens?

 

[absolutelymilk]

The impact of higher fuel prices on the railfreight industry is rather more than on the road freight industry.

I would have thought the fuel price per container was much lower for rail than for road?

 

[dk1]

I would think if anything there will be more WFH (where the employer allows it!). Some countries have already enacted such policies.

That was mentioned on the Jeremy Vine R2 show this week and shot down by one of the guests who said that very few drive into London so that would be a lame excuse not to attend the office.

 

[Bald Rick]

I would have thought the fuel price per container was much lower for rail than for road?

It is, and that’s the point. Rail companies don’t pay as much duty on fuel as rosd haulier, so when the price of fuel rises, rail sees more of an increase.

The price of Brent crude has nearly doubled since January. The price of diesel that a haulier pays is up about 30%, in that time, but for rail it is up 80-90%. Of course the big diesel users in the rail industry hedge the price of their forward supply, so may not be feeling the worst of it yet.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Apr 2026 ==

Pedant alert.
Today is actually Holy Saturday.
Easter Saturday is next week.
But you are correct. Today is a relatively quiet day for long distance travel.

Ah yes, I steadfastly refused to pay attention in my RS lessons.

 

[Swedenorer]

If I want to go from, say, Devizes to Beverston it won't make the slightest impact on rail usage! With only 2% of all pax trips made by rail the effects will be marginal at best.

 

[matthenj]

Fuel would have to go up an awful lot for the train to be cheaper than driving on most day to day routes.

People aren’t going to sell there cars because the cost per mile has gone up slightly - so you’re still comparing fuel to rail tickets (fixed costs are fixed), and fuel wins every time.

(Off the cuff example : £6.60 for a return to the village my Mother lives in by train, total distance (there and back) is about 20 mi by road, so £4.50 in fuel at *£2* a litre, @ 40 mpg.)

The only way the train ever wins on cost is if you either get a lucky advance ticket, or if parking is costly at the other end.

I think you’ll find most people just don’t go before they pay the railway for travel.

 

[absolutelymilk]

It is, and that’s the point. Rail companies don’t pay as much duty on fuel as rosd haulier, so when the price of fuel rises, rail sees more of an increase.

The price of Brent crude has nearly doubled since January. The price of diesel that a haulier pays is up about 30%, in that time, but for rail it is up 80-90%. Of course the big diesel users in the rail industry hedge the price of their forward supply, so may not be feeling the worst of it yet.

Ah I see, you're talking about the percentage increase. But if the price per container goes from (completely making up numbers here) £1 to £1.80 for rail, compared to going from say £7 to £9 per container for road, that's still a bigger absolute increase than for rail

 

[JKF]

The impact of higher fuel prices on the railfreight industry is rather more than on the road freight industry.

Do you know if increased electricity charges will feed in to the price freight users pay fairly quickly, or is it hedged on long-term contracts too? I’m curious if we’ll see less diesel haulage under the wires, which was something that increased last time there was an energy crisis. The impact on electricity prices is likely to be greater since gas supplies are more affected by the conflict and are already constrained by Russia being on the naughty step, but might not kick is as soon.