More carriages for Northumberland Line?

[Trainz6013]

Hello, I have just read this attached article:

New carriages for Northumberland Line trains confirmed after ‘sensational’ demand

New carriages are coming to trains on the Northumberland Line after ‘sensational’ demand.

share.google

Council leader confirms new carriages for Northumberland Line trains after ‘sensational’ demand... expecting to have new carriages for the line by the summer.

Any ideas on what these new carriages may be? I assume 156s or 158s as they'd be based at Heaton?

 

[The exile]

Some preserved NER 0-6-0 pulling a couple of redundant Metro cars?

 

[bramling]

Hello, I have just read this attached article:

New carriages for Northumberland Line trains confirmed after ‘sensational’ demand

New carriages are coming to trains on the Northumberland Line after ‘sensational’ demand.

share.google

"Council leader confirms new carriages for Northumberland Line trains after ‘sensational’ demand... expecting to have new carriages for the line by the summer."

Any ideas on what these new carriages may be? I assume 156s or 158s as they'd be based at Heaton?

The only stock essentially spare are a small handful of 156s, reportedly in poor condition, and been stored for some while. TFW aren’t letting any further 150s go for the time being, which is the only other potential source of a cascade. So it’s hard to see where these might come from, except as part of an internal reshuffle within Northern.

 

[zwk500]

Hello, I have just read this attached article:

New carriages for Northumberland Line trains confirmed after ‘sensational’ demand

New carriages are coming to trains on the Northumberland Line after ‘sensational’ demand.

share.google

To quote from the article:

15 months after its first operational run back in December 2024.
Since then, an estimated 1.4 million passenger journeys have been made on the line, far exceeding any initial forecasts and predictions.

“It has given me a few sleepless nights because we, along with the government, were committing a significant amount of money to open this line up and we had no real clarity about how many would be using the line if it worked when it was first set up,” Sanderson said.

The demand modelling predicting 1.4m journeys once the 6 stations and 2tph service was running is publicly available on a quick google:

https://gat04-live-1517c8a4486c41609369c68f30c8-aa81074.divio-media.org/filer_public/8a/86/8a8630d6-93bf-44f6-8b0d-0bd6039d69d4/app40_-_outline_business_case_november_2019.pdf

So Given that the journey numbers are slightly exceeding the projects, but not by an awful lot, Question 1 is why the need for more carriages is coming as a great surprise to people.
Question 2 is why is the Council Leader outright lying about the information he was given (other than that he is a politician and therefore cannot do anything but lie).
Question 3 is when are Journalists going to actually do some research and hold politicians to account for this.

Mind you, I should be too surprised, I think even Green Signals jumped on the '5x projections, bl**dy consultants' bandwagon...

 

[The exile]

To quote from the article:



The demand modelling predicting 1.4m journeys once the 6 stations and 2tph service was running is publicly available on a quick google:

https://gat04-live-1517c8a4486c41609369c68f30c8-aa81074.divio-media.org/filer_public/8a/86/8a8630d6-93bf-44f6-8b0d-0bd6039d69d4/app40_-_outline_business_case_november_2019.pdf

View attachment 201434

So Given that the journey numbers are slightly exceeding the projects, but not by an awful lot, Question 1 is why the need for more carriages is coming as a great surprise to people.
Question 2 is why is the Council Leader outright lying about the information he was given (other than that he is a politician and therefore cannot do anything but lie).
Question 3 is when are Journalists going to actually do some research and hold politicians to account for this.

Mind you, I should be too surprised, I think even Green Signals jumped on the '5x projections, bl**dy consultants' bandwagon...

I should have thought that exceeding ridership figures by about 25% with, for most of the year, only 50% of the stations open, is rather more than “slightly”. Revenue figures a bit concerning, though.

 

[zwk500]

I should have thought that exceeding ridership figures by about 25% with, for most of the year, only 50% of the stations open, is rather more than “slightly”. Revenue figures a bit concerning, though.

25%? You might need to show your working.

OBC: 1.4m per year. Northern: 1.4m in 15 months, so 1.12m in 12 months (averaged*), or 80% of modelled demand.
As the line opened with only 2 stations and staggered the opening of the remaining 4, and the 2025 model year represents Year 3 of opening not Year 1, I think it's reasonable to conclude demand is actually outstripping modelled demand, but not by some of the ridiculous amounts journalists have been reporting.
* - average is probably underselling it because of staggered station openings.

And certainly nothing to support the council leader's remarks about having 'no real clarity'.

But then it's similar to how people parrot the idea that the Borders line has massively surpassed it's projections, when the Scottish Government's own report said it was within 2% of the projected number.

Northumberland Line needs greater capacity (lengthened trains and/or higher frequency)

For all the talk of fares being too cheap, the fares align with the fares charged on Metro, where the large car parks at Regent Centre, Four Lane Ends, and Northumberland Park are charged at £1.50 per day. It's been very good at doing what it was intended to do- get people out of their cars...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[amahy]

"New" carriages is a bold claim by the article, as none of Northern's new trains are expected to be in service until at least 2030!

Anyhow, many of Northern's routes have suffered from a lack of capacity for decades, with little improvement. I can only think that the reason behind the drive for the Northumberland line over all others is the fact that it's new.

 

[Tetchytyke]

The demand modelling predicting 1.4m journeys once the 6 stations and 2tph service was running is publicly available on a quick google:

It wasn't predicted to ramp up so quickly though. As you say, the prediction was that level of traffic would only be achieved after a few years of full operation. However, we've only had full operation for a fortnight and we're already at that amount.

The difficulty now is assessing whether the modelling was wrong and demand is much higher than expected, or whether traffic has ramped up more quickly than expected but will plateau about where it was expected to plateau. If the former then within 18-24 months the extra carriages will be very desperately needed, maybe not so much if the latter.

We've seen the rapid plateauing of traffic on the Borders Railway, which means that it was both 5x ahead of expectations but also exactly bang on expectations.

 

[The exile]

25%? You might need to show your working.

OBC: 1.4m per year. Northern: 1.4m in 15 months, so 1.12m in 12 months (averaged*), or 80% of modelled demand.
As the line opened with only 2 stations and staggered the opening of the remaining 4, and the 2025 model year represents Year 3 of opening not Year 1, I think it's reasonable to conclude demand is actually outstripping modelled demand, but not by some of the ridiculous amounts journalists have been reporting.
* - average is probably underselling it because of staggered station openings.

And certainly nothing to support the council leader's remarks about having 'no real clarity'.

But then it's similar to how people parrot the idea that the Borders line has massively surpassed it's projections, when the Scottish Government's own report said it was within 2% of the projected number.

Northumberland Line needs greater capacity (lengthened trains and/or higher frequency)

For all the talk of fares being too cheap, the fares align with the fares charged on Metro, where the large car parks at Regent Centre, Four Lane Ends, and Northumberland Park are charged at £1.50 per day. It's been very good at doing what it was intended to do- get people out of their cars...

www.railforums.co.uk

Misread the table!

 

[zwk500]

The difficulty now is assessing whether the modelling was wrong and demand is much higher than expected, or whether traffic has ramped up more quickly than expected but will plateau about where it was expected to plateau.

It's not that difficult, there's several examples now that it's the ramp-up factors that are wrong.

 

[Tetchytyke]

It's not that difficult, there's several examples now that it's the ramp-up factors that are wrong.

Possibly, possibly not. We won't know for a few years.

Having lived in the area I think the forecasts for the Northumberland Line were actually far too conservative. 1.4M single trips per year (700K return trips) is about 2,000 return passengers a day. Bedlington, Blyth, and Ashington combined have a population of about 100,000, and I'd be surprised if only 2% of the population were regularly going into Newcastle or North Tyneside for work or leisure each day.

As for whether the need for extra carriages is a surprise, I doubt it is really. Those 2,000 people won't be evenly distributed across all services in a day, and even if everyone breathes in you won't get much over 200 people on a 2-car 158. So, actually, the line probably already is at capacity and if any of the other 98,000 people in the area start using the train you're going to run into issues.

 

[Anvil1984]

Possibly, possibly not. We won't know for a few years.

Having lived in the area I think the forecasts for the Northumberland Line were actually far too conservative. 1.4M single trips per year (700K return trips) is about 2,000 return passengers a day. Bedlington, Blyth, and Ashington combined have a population of about 100,000, and I'd be surprised if only 2% of the population were regularly going into Newcastle or North Tyneside for work or leisure each day.

As for whether the need for extra carriages is a surprise, I doubt it is really. Those 2,000 people won't be evenly distributed across all services in a day, and even if everyone breathes in you won't get much over 200 people on a 2-car 158. So, actually, the line probably already is at capacity and if any of the other 98,000 people in the area start using the train you're going to run into issues.

I’m probably going massively against the grain here but the Northumberland line is no different to most of Northern’s routes but as it’s the newest it garners the most attention.

If you read half of the posts on here and what the local counsellors post you’d think that every single train is packed out. In reality it’s just the same as most over Northern lines, 2 or 3 busy trains on a morning and then weekends especially when Newcastle are at home are a challenge. The middle of the day and after 6pm then a 2 car is more than enough. It’s certainly no different to the Durham Coast line where we’ve been turning back double digits on certain Saturday trains from Hartlepool, Horden and Seaham for years with less publicity (the hourly 1J Durham Coast expresses have came in at the cost at the potential strengthening of the stoppers due to not having extra units).

In reality we are probably waiting for if and when the TFW 158s become available for any improvement. The ex TFW 150s would need a costly C6 plus driver training which wouldn’t be worth it. Reading elsewhere theres talk of of the remaining stored 156s being taken to pieces for parts as there’s a shortage due to age of the units (the ex EMR unit on Heaton is a very sorry sight right now as it gets raided). This leaves potentially only the 153s which haven’t moved for years or heaven forbid the ex ATW 769s

 

[Tetchytyke]

I’m probably going massively against the grain here but the Northumberland line is no different to most of Northern’s routes but as it’s the newest it garners the most attention.

If you read half of the posts on here and what the local counsellors post you’d think that every single train is packed out. In reality it’s just the same as most over Northern lines, 2 or 3 busy trains on a morning and then weekends especially when Newcastle are at home are a challenge.

Absolutely, Heaton hasn't had enough stock for as long as I can remember. I can remember how much of a battle it was to get the morning peak from Hexham to Newcastle strengthened from 1x142 to 2x142. Nothing much has changed.

I think the Northumberland Line is getting more scrutiny because it is new and shiny and already it is overcrowded at the peak times- weekday morning and evening peaks, and Saturday mornings. But yeah, it's always been an issue.

 

[StoneRoad]

I'll see how busy it is on my next trip, in a week / 10 days time ...

 

[DM352]

There are spare ex GWR class 769's which could be supplemented with a couple of thunderbir locos. /s

On a serious note, were there some parked off lease 156's at Ely? Remember seeing a drone youtube of them with s9me rusty roofed 153's.

 

[Snex]

Happy to be corrected, but I assume it's no go until May anyway unless they mess around swapping all the platforms in Newcastle every day?

Platform 5 is 2 car only, god knows who thought it was a good idea moving the Northumberland Line into there when they knew there was capacity issues.

 

[androdas]

Happy to be corrected, but I assume it's no go until May anyway unless they mess around swapping all the platforms in Newcastle every day?

Platform 5 is 2 car only, god knows who thought it was a good idea moving the Northumberland Line into there when they knew there was capacity issues.

If 6 is not being used then 5 & 6 can be combined. It happens rarely with TPE and LNER but I have seen an 80x unit in there and also in the combined 7/8 out the back. This is obviously not ideal as it takes a platform out but the dwell time before the working goes back to Ashington is not too bad.

 

[swt_passenger]

If 6 is not being used then 5 & 6 can be combined. It happens rarely with TPE and LNER but I have seen an 80x unit in there and also in the combined 7/8 out the back. This is obviously not ideal as it takes a platform out but the dwell time before the working goes back to Ashington is not too bad.

Looks like there’s about 220m of usable platform (ie that marked with tactiles) but they’ve painted themselves into a corner with modern signalling stand back rules?

 

[zwk500]

Looks like there’s about 220m of usable platform (ie that marked with tactiles) but they’ve painted themselves into a corner with modern signalling stand back rules?

From the TPRs

Station	Platform	Usable Length (m)	Notes
Newcastle	5	68
Newcastle	6	97	Platforms 5 and 6 can be combined with a total length of 217m
Newcastle	7	115
Newcastle	8	41	Platforms 7 and 8 combined with a total length of 209m in Down direction, and 212m in Up direction

97+68 = 157m, so losing 60m to signalling standback for 5/6
Platforms 7 and 8 have a crossover between them so you'd expect length to be lost.

Platforms 5/6 arguably should just be one long platform 5 using A/B ends and permissive working, but that would mean trains being brought in on Red aspects for the Calling-on indication whereas with mid-platform signals they can be given a yellow aspect into the platform. This benefit may be limited though if the signal protecting Platform 6 is held at Red for a warner route when 5 is occupied.
Notably, in the Sectional Appendix platforms 2-8 are authorised for Permissive Passenger working during service disruption or for booked attaching only.

 

[swt_passenger]

From the TPRs

Station	Platform	Usable Length (m)	Notes
Newcastle	5	68
Newcastle	6	97	Platforms 5 and 6 can be combined with a total length of 217m
Newcastle	7	115
Newcastle	8	41	Platforms 7 and 8 combined with a total length of 209m in Down direction, and 212m in Up direction

97+68 = 157m, so losing 60m to signalling standback for 5/6
Platforms 7 and 8 have a crossover between them so you'd expect length to be lost.

Platforms 5/6 arguably should just be one long platform 5 using A/B ends and permissive working, but that would mean trains being brought in on Red aspects for the Calling-on indication whereas with mid-platform signals they can be given a yellow aspect into the platform.
Notably, in the Sectional Appendix platforms 2-8 are authorised for Permissive Passenger working during service disruption or for booked attaching only.

Thanks for diving into the SA and rescuing the exact figures...

 

[zwk500]

Thanks for diving into the SA and rescuing the exact figures...

Haha it helps when you know which section of which document to look in

 

[Zooty]

From the TPRs

Station	Platform	Usable Length (m)	Notes
Newcastle	5	68
Newcastle	6	97	Platforms 5 and 6 can be combined with a total length of 217m
Newcastle	7	115
Newcastle	8	41	Platforms 7 and 8 combined with a total length of 209m in Down direction, and 212m in Up direction

97+68 = 157m, so losing 60m to signalling standback for 5/6
Platforms 7 and 8 have a crossover between them so you'd expect length to be lost.

Platforms 5/6 arguably should just be one long platform 5 using A/B ends and permissive working, but that would mean trains being brought in on Red aspects for the Calling-on indication whereas with mid-platform signals they can be given a yellow aspect into the platform. This benefit may be limited though if the signal protecting Platform 6 is held at Red for a warner route when 5 is occupied.
Notably, in the Sectional Appendix platforms 2-8 are authorised for Permissive Passenger working during service disruption or for booked attaching only.

So platform 8 is unusable on its own as the shortest trains are 46m? Surely 7/8 should just be one long platform?

 

[zwk500]

So platform 8 is unusable on its own as the shortest trains are 46m? Surely 7/8 should just be one long platform?

When the infrastructure was designed, presumably there were still single-car services operating, and 2x loco can be held in 8.

Also, using 7 on it's own allows departures directly to the Up Slow with the mid-platform crossover. This allows a parallel move with a movement into/out of Platform 6. Any movement into/out of the west end of 8 conflicts with the west end of 6.

 

[Kite159]

Also platform 8 was used when Northern still had Pacers and ran more Newcastle - MetroCentre shuttles.

 

[Anvil1984]

So platform 8 is unusable on its own as the shortest trains are 46m? Surely 7/8 should just be one long platform?

You can bring a unit into platform 8 from the North / High Level Bridge through 7 (The 1Jxx Middlesbrough to Carlisles often use platform 8) and then bring another unit into platform 7 on a normal colour light sequence (no stopping for a position light before the station)

Platform 5 can hold a 3 car if Northern had a shakearound of stock (contrary to the good book, 7 of the 8 doors on a double 156 just fit on.

There is gossip of extensions to platforms 5 and 8 but nothing has came to fruition yet

 

[Meole]

Remove the car park allowing reinstatement of the former coastal platforms.

 

[GuyGibsonVC]

Speaking of platforms, I read or heard somewhere that double units coming from Morpeth to Bedlington wouldn't fit onto the Platform 1 due to the junction.

It is rather moot at the moment as there is no Morpeth to Bedlington service but would this be the case?

 

[swt_passenger]

Speaking of platforms, I read or heard somewhere that double units coming from Morpeth to Bedlington wouldn't fit onto the Platform 1 due to the junction.

It is rather moot at the moment as there is no Morpeth to Bedlington service but would this be the case?

Yes, the points are very obviously well within the platform length. But a through Morpeth service is pure speculation, there’s no route capacity for more than the 2 tph Benton Jn to Ashington, so do you cut an Ashington train for it?

 

[Anvil1984]

Yes, the points are very obviously well within the platform length. But a through Morpeth service is pure speculation, there’s no route capacity for more than the 2 tph Benton Jn to Ashington, so do you cut an Ashington train for it?

I think he meant a Newcastle - Morpeth - Bedlington service extending off the current Newcastle - Morpeth service.

In which case a 4 car wouldn’t fit platform 1 because the platform follows the curve of the Ashington portion of the line. It would then need to do a shunt to cross over to reform the return service off platform 2 as there’s no signalling to allow a movement in that direction from Platform 1)

 

[GuyGibsonVC]

I think he meant a Newcastle - Morpeth - Bedlington service extending off the current Newcastle - Morpeth service.

In which case a 4 car wouldn’t fit platform 1 because the platform follows the curve of the Ashington portion of the line. It would then need to do a shunt to cross over to reform the return service off platform 2 as there’s no signalling to allow a movement in that direction from Platform 1)

Yes, this is what I was suggesting. I know various community groups keep suggesting it. Thanks for clarifying.

Not to go off topic, but I don’t think I’ve even seen a double unit on the Newcastle - Morpeth service, so my point is even more moot.