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I’d say it is unknown what could happen if anything happens to Trump, the midterms will be interesting as a starting point, along with the war against Iran.
Those who supported America First may complain, but I personally don’t think the war on Iran was Trump’s decision, and I am only seeing some podcasters and fringe media saying so.
Trump was willingly led up the garden path by Netanyahu. How he gets out of the massive hole he's found himself in is going to be messy.
It's going to be very messy for the US and the whole global order as new norms become set over decades. Trump has no respect for NATO and the UN so their power is already seriously diminished.
Can anyone see a future coherent US President capable of healing a fractured nation? Back in 1998 when travelling in the US I heard a suggestion that the western states should break away. Maybe New England too. Sounded far fetched back then, maybe not now!
Trump was willingly led up the garden path by Netanyahu. How he gets out of the massive hole he's found himself in is going to be messy.
It's going to be very messy for the US and the whole global order as new norms become set over decades. Trump has no respect for NATO and the UN so their power is already seriously diminished.
Can anyone see a future coherent US President capable of healing a fractured nation? Back in 1998 when travelling in the US I heard a suggestion that the western states should break away. Maybe New England too. Sounded far fetched back then, maybe not now!
What I find interesting - and mildly terrifying - is the prospect of who fills the vacuum.
His cult is rapidly diminishing in number. The threat of a complete demolition of the Republicans in the midterms is not impossible. Trump isn't a spring chicken. If Trump becomes a total electoral liability - assuming he reaches that stage before he gets fitted for a long wooden box - how is the GOP going to deal with him, and how will they deal with his legacy when it comes back to bite them in the years to come?
Even in 2024, I never thought I'd be asking this question. But at last, it seems that, after nearly six years of Trump in his various iterations, Texas Man is on the New Jersey Turnpike, looking for America.
I think the people that 'handle' the President, including Stephen Miller and the Project 2025 crowd, are taking full advantage of Trump's condition but, at the same time, people with dementia likely forget what they said before, and change their mind frequently.
There are SO many factors but they are all potentially contradictory, hence the mixed messages. The GOP then attempts to use various means to convince everyone that there's some big master plan and not to worry too much about the war being over, yet not over, being finished in a few weeks but possibly taking years.
The USA drills a lot of oil, and Trump already said they make more money when prices are high.. but the USA hasn't got an unlimited supply so Venezuela and Iran are good strategic acquisitions. Unfortunately Iran doesn't want to play ball (and we have no idea what will happen in Venezuela long-term either).
Israel has its own goals but must convince the USA to keep supporting it.. and it seems the USA can be a nice distraction from what Israel is doing (which includes continued invasions of Gaza and the West Bank, which nobody seems to talk about today). Thus this illegal war is helping Israel (hiding war crimes) and Trump (Epstein Files) and each side seems willing to spend whatever it takes to continue doing it.
Trump has got himself in a right mess. Israel does things long-term, but isn't likely to be going as far as the USA will have to. Trump wants prices to come back down, but Iran didn't capitulate and the rest of the world didn't step in to help.
He must be praying for a major terror attack to justify further assaults, including attacks on NATO members who might then step in for a defensive role. Thanks to Trump, our own security is now at risk - plus we all get to pay higher prices on goods and services, higher interest rates to come and a reduction in affordable loans and mortgages - and it's only one month in.
I'm surprised JD Vance came out of hiding to talk about the nuclear bomb vest nonsense, as I thought he'd keep way clear of all this to protect his future. But maybe they're pressuring him too now. Perhaps they know he'll be in power sooner rather than later. I know this sounds like a broken record, but Trump seems way worse in recent weeks with more and more gaffes and crazy talk.
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US industry needs heavy oil. Plus, it seems oil will be increasingly expensive to extract in ten years or so within the USA, so they need to look further afield for sources. Given Trump is halting so many renewable projects, the country is going to massively struggle in the future when oil is more expensive (potentially even rationed) and other countries are energy independent - which for things like industry will further make them more competitive than the USA could ever be.
I mean, the USA love their big pick-ups that see road fatalities going up year-on-year and some of these vehicles that avoid emission rules (as they're light trucks) do 15-20mpg. Americans don't have cars for convenience, they need them to do anything. Even popping out for a pint of milk almost certainly requires getting in a car - and some people have to drive 20-30 minutes to their nearest supermarket. When these people can't afford to drive, they'll be like prisoners in their own home.
How ironic that Americans keep saying that cars make you free and help stoke the fire when people talk about investing in public transportation, low traffic neighbourhoods/15 minute cities.
I do wonder if and expectation of future pressure from China has forced Israel and Trumps hand. China is building long range stealth aircraft, nuclear submarines and probably nuclear powered aircraft carriers. You don’t invest in nuclear submarines and carriers for them to stay at home. If 10 years from now China has a bomber, submarine and carrier fleet deployed accross the world then the US will be much more restricted in its operations. Particularly against regimes like Iran, Venezuela and Cuba which are supported by Russia and China.
The earliest laid down Nimitz class carriers are approaching their 50 years service life. The US navy is already stretched (for similar financial, procurement, manufacturing and operational reasons to the RN) its capital ships are old and becoming unreliable. US shipyards are struggling to replace them on a timeline that maintains the USN fleet size. Ships that have been completed are facing mechanical problems.
The next 10 years are going to be interesting and probably concerning times.
Well, yes, I do think the more immediate issues for him are a major factor - but when it comes to the long term strategy, we must remember how long Netanyahu has been on the scene.
While it hasn't perhaps been shown that much, there are anti-Government protests taking place in Israel at the moment.
Trump, I feel is only going to become more difficult for those who try to control him, Because, as his illness grows deeper, so his impulses will come to the fore more, the unhinged ramblings, the 3 Am texts, trump needs the limelight, like an alcoholic needs drink, and he will ignore any attempts to control him,
He will of course become more unhinged as his brain becomes more damaged and will inflict more self-harm on those who support him, he of course though won't realise it, and the utterance's will just become more unbelievable, If Death does not take him first, then someone is going to have to remove him, and He will see that as the worse betrayal that anyone can do it him, he will like all tyrants lash out, demanding arrests, even ordering they be executed, It possibly will ignite another civil war .
Trump, I feel is only going to become more difficult for those who try to control him, Because, as his illness grows deeper, so his impulses will come to the fore more, the unhinged ramblings, the 3 Am texts, trump needs the limelight, like an alcoholic needs drink, and he will ignore any attempts to control him,
He will of course become more unhinged as his brain becomes more damaged and will inflict more self-harm on those who support him, he of course though won't realise it, and the utterance's will just become more unbelievable, If Death does not take him first, then someone is going to have to remove him, and He will see that as the worse betrayal that anyone can do it him, he will like all tyrants lash out, demanding arrests, even ordering they be executed, It possibly will ignite another civil war .
We saw the difficulties Tories experienced (and continue to experience) after deposing Margaret Thatcher. Trump is very much more entrenched in an American bipartisan system that's heavily armed as well as divided. It could get very messy at home as well as in the Middle East.
We saw the difficulties Tories experienced (and continue to experience) after deposing Margaret Thatcher. Trump is very much more entrenched in an American bipartisan system that's heavily armed as well as divided. It could get very messy at home as well as in the Middle East.
One difference that might work the other way (ie de-escalatory) is that, whatever you think of her politics, Thatcher was dumped before there were any signs (detectable at the time) of dementia. Trump’s might still be deniable at the moment, but they might not be for long to all but the real hardcore.
I don't think ousting Trump now would cause much trouble even amongst MAGA. I think many have been affected by his actions and probably feel betrayed by the illegal war.
It's not like it means calling an election. Vance steps in and carries on.
We saw the difficulties Tories experienced (and continue to experience) after deposing Margaret Thatcher. Trump is very much more entrenched in an American bipartisan system that's heavily armed as well as divided. It could get very messy at home as well as in the Middle East.
Boris Johnson is a much better example in this analogy: involved in a whole manner of scandals, many of which he brushed aside (but would have brought down all his predecessors) and stayed on far longer due to cult-like status in the party and a lack of credible alternatives. It was only when he started being an electoral liability and the scandals intolerable that he was deposed.
We are seeing similar with Trump now: he's being an electoral liability in special elections, and currently looks set for a mid-terms' bloodbath, while the Iran war could be to him what Partygate was to Johnson. The Iran war is also Trump's "Read my lips, no new taxes!" moment.
Just read Palm Beach Airport is to be renamed as Trump International Airport this summer. This narcissitic penchant for renaming public places into his own continues... Oh dear.
Just read Palm Beach Airport is to be renamed as Trump International Airport this summer. This narcissitic penchant for renaming public places into his own continues... Oh dear.
In fairness I might be more worried about the billions being spent on Iran after having voted for the guy who ran on "No more wars"... A few million is pocket change in comparison.
In fairness I might be more worried about the billions being spent on Iran after having voted for the guy who ran on "No more wars"... A few million is pocket change in comparison.
In fairness I might be more worried about the billions being spent on Iran after having voted for the guy who ran on "No more wars"... A few million is pocket change in comparison.
And When the Trump name is rightfully reviled when everyone knows what a vile monster, he actually was, when the files are released in full, when the victims' stories come out, and he can't stop the truth, people will shudder at his name being on anything.
A bit like how we see Jimmy Saville now, at one time he was seen as saintly, but now his name is shunned.
Boris Johnson is a much better example in this analogy: involved in a whole manner of scandals, many of which he brushed aside (but would have brought down all his predecessors) and stayed on far longer due to cult-like status in the party and a lack of credible alternatives. It was only when he started being an electoral liability and the scandals intolerable that he was deposed.
We are seeing similar with Trump now: he's being an electoral liability in special elections, and currently looks set for a mid-terms' bloodbath, while the Iran war could be to him what Partygate was to Johnson. The Iran war is also Trump's "Read my lips, no new taxes!" moment.
The difference is that there was a fairly straightforward way of getting rid of Johnson as he was only there by the choice of the party’s MPs. As soon as the scales fell from their eyes, i.e. they realised that his unpopularity in the country might lose them their seats, they were able to get rid of him, even if the cult-like status delayed things a bit. Once the MPs have made the decision to oust him, there was little he could do except bluster.
Trump is in place by the direct ‘will of the people’ and, for reasonable historical reasons, there are only very limited ways of getting him removed. The 25th Amendment effectively requires the VP and Cabinet members to boot him out, which is unlikely as they are his appointees. If they did and the President challenged it, which one could assume Trump would, it goes to the House to decide: it would be interesting to see which side the members would come down on, but I bet it wouldn’t be the people’s.
(A very simple explanation of a complicated system which would be in unknown territory.)
Just read Palm Beach Airport is to be renamed as Trump International Airport this summer. This narcissitic penchant for renaming public places into his own continues... Oh dear.
When you consider the chaos that frequently follows revolutions, the US has done remarkably well in avoiding the “power falls into the hands of a megalomaniac” phase for 250 years….
I think we could very see Clacton, being twinned with Mar-a-largo and Moscow, Mar -a- Largo, because that's where he normally can be found kissing the orange ring, and Moscow, because that's who funded him.
I don't think ousting Trump now would cause much trouble even amongst MAGA. I think many have been affected by his actions and probably feel betrayed by the illegal war.
From Vance's point of view, the best tactic would be to remain loyal (and out of the way) until the inevitable disaster in the midterms. While anything can happen in politics, if we assume Trump loses the House and ends up on 50-50 in the Senate, then Vance has the perfect time to strike, as the remaining Republicans will be in full blown panic. Vance would also have two years to demolish the Trump cult, leaving him as a "potentially electable" candidate in 2028 as opposed to "one who might not even win in the primaries".
Either way, I don't see Trump ending his term in a remotely positive way.
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