GusB
Established Member
What utter rubbish.
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The Labour Party under Andy Burnham
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Topological
Established Member
In which way?
I mean you are very entitled to your opinion, but it is usual to explain.
If it helps my point is made from my own research, electoral results in the Red Wall constituencies and the sales figures of newspapers such as The Sun or The Daily Mail.
I personally disagree that the Greens are not beneficial for the average white voter, but I do agree with you with how many people may perceive them in that part of the world anyway. Particularly for anyone whose main concern is immigration winning them over is an uphill battle to say the least..
Topological
Established Member
This is the problem so many in academia and the political classes have. Clearly (and as I said) the Greens offer exactly the investment package that is needed. In that way, the Green Party probably offers the best return on a vote for someone in a left-behind area. Remaining in the EU offered the best economic return for those people.
The EU vote tended to go in the opposite direction to the projected economic benefit/cost in pretty much every area.
I am not even 100% sure that immigration is the issue. I think the issue is others (Reform paint that as immigrants) getting something that they did not work hard enough for. It can just as easily be that "all the infrastructure investment is in the south", or "government is run by the City of London", etc. All that is very clear is that Labour are not doing anything to address that narrative.
All we are seeing from Labour is an echoing of the "no money to invest" narrative from the Conservatives. Yet, ask which large business has ever halted a strong project because they did not have the capital. You only have to look how leveraged the big technology firms are to know that austerity is not the only way. Yes, higher borrowing costs mean higher interest payments and projects need higher return. However, someone should look at the costs of not investing (which is how a business would approach it) and realise that those are much higher.
Fair play to Reform on immigration, and The Conservatives on austerity, for getting their position entrenched in the national psyche, but Labour do not have to do either.
edwin_m
Veteran Member
You are quoting a post of mine which was in response to a comment regarding traditional Tory-voting seats. Many of these, particularly in the southeast, were strongly Remain. The LibDems made many gains there in 2024, and the Tories appeal to those voters even less now.
The greens are pretty clearly not trying to win people over who are concerned about immigration. There is probably some merit to this as a political strategy, since a lot of people (myself included!) find the anti-migration drum quite offputting and every other party is pushing this.
Oddly the party I can see this most affecting in the next General Election is Labour, as while they lose progressive votes to the Greens, the Tories/Reform will play up the possibility of an electoral pact and highlight the Greens' views to a wider audience - similar to how the Tories implied that Miliband would be in Salmond's pocket.
Indeed, I love in such a location and my local (county) Tory candidate's literature was basically saying "Reform are bad (effectively cutting Kent and Worcestershire as examples without mentioning them) and don't vote Lib Dems as you may end up with Reform", which is unlikely given that Reform got 1/3 of the votes of the Lib Dems at the general election and 1/6 of the votes of the total of the Lib Dems and Tories.
The Lib Dems one was much more about what they've been doing as a party.
I doubt I'll see anything from Labour as even before Reform they were very much in third place, and at the general election they were only just behind Reform.
Whilst a lot of the area which is covered by the County Council voting ward is rural, the local schools covering the largest "urban"* settlement are fairly multicultural.
* Note, it's only classed as urban as it's population is just over 10,000 and that's the government definition for it. Many locals would object to such a definition!
martin butler
Member
- Joined
- 9 Oct 2018
- Messages
- 883
I'm disappointed with Labour too timid, they have a massive majority in Parliament, yet act as if they are at best only just scraping by,
They should have gone with real change, taking the Water companies back into public ownership for one, bringing in measures to limit rent rises , and to tackle falling illiteracy levels, invested in education, in jobs that pay people a wage they can live on, rather than giving people top ups, a hand up, not a hand out,
Short term, yes, it might cost money, but longer term better educated people, are likely to earn better wages, so cutting down on social help,
They should have gone with real change, taking the Water companies back into public ownership for one, bringing in measures to limit rent rises , and to tackle falling illiteracy levels, invested in education, in jobs that pay people a wage they can live on, rather than giving people top ups, a hand up, not a hand out,
Short term, yes, it might cost money, but longer term better educated people, are likely to earn better wages, so cutting down on social help,
Gloster
Veteran Member
But what would the Daily Mail say? Starmer is frightened stiff of upsetting the Mail and its like by doing anything that might hint at the possibility of higher taxes for the rich: although the Mail would claim that it is the voice of Britain (*), it is the voice of a very few who own much of Britain. And of course we are never, ever going to get into that nasty foreign practice of long-term planning, unless it is to keep the multi-nationals happy.
* - Years ago David McKie of the Guardian wrote in answer to this claim that, ‘Britain should sue.’
edwin_m
Veteran Member
Unlike the 1997 Blair government, this one is not in the fortunate position of having a strong economy and tax base to fund these things, and some combination of Covid and behaviour of previous governments has left the national debt at about 100% of GDP and the economy damaged and generating less tax revenue. So it's very difficult to do these things without extra income, but the Labour manifesto had ruled out increasing the major taxes and if they had done so then the Mail etc would be howling.
Topological
Established Member
The Mail would certainly howl, and how loud.
However, are we governed by the Mail?
The Conservatives never seem to have any issue giving the Mirror something to moan about.
A lot of Mail readers vote Labour, I'll bet not many Mirror readers vote Tory.
I agree with this and perhaps it could become a winning strategy. Migration has had the most salience in general although this could be diluted if the talking point about wealth inequality becomes more mainstream.
Topological
Established Member
They probably read the Mail and want higher taxes. They likely read the mail for other reasons than fiscal stance.
Labour really need to grow a pair and start actually investing in the UK, instead of complaining that they havent inherited the strong economy Blair inherited.
Actually probably cannot say "grow a pair" anymore. Please insert some other slogan that deliberately upsets Labour so they will go on about the slogan rather than the fact they actually need to do something about the economy.
edwin_m
Veteran Member
Sometimes it seems like we are (and the Telegraph and the Express etc).
Can you suggest some things they could do where you consider the benefits would outweigh the downsides?
There is lots of investment going on, such as Northern Powerhouse Rail. The problem is that investment in the modern economy will not make much difference to the left-behind or make them feel less left-behind. On the contrary they will complain that too much is going to the big cities even if they aren't in the southeast of England.
As we've seen from the numerous U-turns, Starmer may have a majority, but it's not one he can rely on. He's boxed in economically, they can't make massive spending commitments without either raising taxes (which would be deeply unpopular and quite possibly ineffective), cutting spending (what can they cut that the backbenchers won't object to?), or raising borrowing (cue Liz Truss).
Although many papers have stopped reporting circulations, The Metro (DMG-owned), The Mail, and The Sun were way out in front, several times the circulation of the next. (The Mirror). There is the age-old debate over whether the media are leading or following the public, I tend to believe it's the latter. So if you irritate Daily Mail readers, you probably won't remain in office past the next election. You can't make changes from the opposition benches.
Although many papers have stopped reporting circulations, The Metro (DMG-owned), The Mail, and The Sun were way out in front, several times the circulation of the next. (The Mirror). There is the age-old debate over whether the media are leading or following the public, I tend to believe it's the latter. So if you irritate Daily Mail readers, you probably won't remain in office past the next election. You can't make changes from the opposition benches.
I see this a lot.
Yes, it is from Facebook, but there are complaints about areas of the same Borough/Council getting more investment. For example: an affluent area gets a new leisure complex while traditional Labour voting areas are left with decaying roads and infrastructure, they also have a Labour MP.
The local Reform Group are posting about this and unfortunately, people are going to vote for them.
== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
In the past, yes, not so much now.
See my post #3667.
Railwaycat
Member
Snow1964
Established Member
Appears from polls that Labour have dropped to around 17% (it was 35% at the General election).
Reform have also slipped about 6% from their highs last Autumn to 23% from 29%
Greens seem to be continuing to slowly creep upwards.
A table of recent polls is in this article
www.markpack.org.uk
Meanwhile with the early May elections now only few weeks away, articles are starting to appear with predictions, eg this one (not quoting as long, but typed summary below)
shows how Labour might be trashed in some areas
Predictions :
1) Newcastle Labour minority to Green + Independents
2) Blaenau Gwent Labour might be 4th in 100 year stronghold
3) Galloway and Dumfries switch to SNP
4) Birmingham Labour expected to lose sizeable majority
5) Lincoln Labour expected to lose control
6) Barnsley potential Labour wipeout to Reform
7) Hackney where Labour might change to Green
8) Pontypridd likely to split Reform, Labour, Plaid
9) Essex Reform win from Conservatives
10) Lewisham switch from Labour
If these predictions come true and May elections are a disaster for Labour, then have to wonder if Kier Starmer can survive, although it would be rather a poisoned chalice for any successor.
novaramedia.com
Reform have also slipped about 6% from their highs last Autumn to 23% from 29%
Greens seem to be continuing to slowly creep upwards.
A table of recent polls is in this article
Latest voting intention and leadership ratings opinion polls
See the latest national voting intention polls for the next UK general election, along with MRP projections party leadership ratings.
www.markpack.org.uk
Meanwhile with the early May elections now only few weeks away, articles are starting to appear with predictions, eg this one (not quoting as long, but typed summary below)
shows how Labour might be trashed in some areas
Predictions :
1) Newcastle Labour minority to Green + Independents
2) Blaenau Gwent Labour might be 4th in 100 year stronghold
3) Galloway and Dumfries switch to SNP
4) Birmingham Labour expected to lose sizeable majority
5) Lincoln Labour expected to lose control
6) Barnsley potential Labour wipeout to Reform
7) Hackney where Labour might change to Green
8) Pontypridd likely to split Reform, Labour, Plaid
9) Essex Reform win from Conservatives
10) Lewisham switch from Labour
If these predictions come true and May elections are a disaster for Labour, then have to wonder if Kier Starmer can survive, although it would be rather a poisoned chalice for any successor.
10 Seats to Watch in the Local Elections | Harriet Williamson
The elections on 7 May are widely predicted to be a referendum on Keir Starmer’s leadership. Harriet Williamson rounds up the seats to keep an eye on.
novaramedia.com
Falcon1200
Established Member
Most unfortunately, Morgan McSweeney, the PM's former chief of staff, appears to have had his mobile phone, which may have contained messages pertinent to the Mandelson debacle, stolen.
www.bbc.co.uk
What on earth was a senior Government official doing using his Government-issue phone, containing top-level Government messages, in the street, in the dark, in a city where mobile phone theft is not exactly unknown? Not for the first time, the judgement of people at the very top of Government is, quite frankly, unbelievable (as might possibly be other details of the incident.....)
Far-fetched to think McSweeney faked phone theft, says Sir Keir Starmer
Messages relating to Lord Peter Mandelson's appointment as US ambassador could have been lost in the alleged theft.
www.bbc.co.uk
What on earth was a senior Government official doing using his Government-issue phone, containing top-level Government messages, in the street, in the dark, in a city where mobile phone theft is not exactly unknown? Not for the first time, the judgement of people at the very top of Government is, quite frankly, unbelievable (as might possibly be other details of the incident.....)
DarloRich
Veteran Member
Not everything is a conspiracy. It might not even be a cock up. The bloke might have been, you know, working. I don't know what you do for work but i have had jobs where you are never off duty and they weren't even as important or pressured as PM chief of staff.
If it is a conspiracy getting your phone nicked 6 months ahead of a crisis is certainly playing the long game mind!
Tetchytyke
Veteran Member
And Rebekah Vardy’s agent genuinely did accidentally drop her phone into the sea
DarloRich
Veteran Member
trust me i am fairly cynical but i don't think this is a conspiracy - if it is you will need to give McSweeny a lot more credit for his 4d chess skills than you have before!And Rebekah Vardy’s agent genuinely did accidentally drop her phone into the sea
Falcon1200
Established Member
Walking down the street, in the dark, holding for all to see his mobile phone, used for and containing sensitive Government information and communications, in a city where mobile phone theft is rife - I know precisely 2 people who live in London and one of whom had their phone stolen in almost identical circumstances. What work was so important that McSweeney had to do this, plus then seemingly fail to report the incident fully to the Police, ie not saying what the phone was used for, resulting in a serious lack of investigation?
Cock-up rather than conspiracy it may well be, but also an almighty failure to properly consider the safe and secure use of a vital Government asset.
Mandelson was sacked on 11th September last year. McSweeney's phone was stolen on 20th October last year.
greatkingrat
Established Member
- Joined
- 20 Jan 2011
- Messages
- 3,305
What is the point of having a mobile if you are not allowed to use it outside?
Indeed, however there are measures which could have been used to limit the risk (such as straps attached to the phone to make a snatching harder to do).
DarloRich
Veteran Member
or just by having it encrypted.
he was the government communication director so probably something to do with that! I don't think you are really ever off duty in a job like that especially if you are trying to manage a story.
Ok - I know precisely 17 people in London and none have had thier phones stolen. I go to London several times a week and haven't had my phone stolen. I even use it at night which seems a heinous crime and a massive risk!
it is clear you have an issue with Labour but I also think you might be a bit unrealistic in your position. It is one thing to use you mobile phone in the course of your job and have it pinched out of your hand. It is quite another to leave naval secrets on the train or at a bus shelter.