Northern Future fleet updates

[Class 323 Fan]

It's surprising that they're saying 23m when most newer stock (including 195/331) is 24. Are there platforms where that extra 3-4m in a unit would actually be a problem? In modern terms, 23m would be a custom length pushing the price up, 20 and 24 are usually what is on offer, Stadler aside.

I’ve thought about this, and the only reason this may be because is, so the whole unit, including a power car, can fit fully into platforms, this is the only theory I can think of.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I’ve thought about this, and the only reason this may be because is, so the whole unit, including a power car, can fit fully into platforms, this is the only theory I can think of.

They might of course just mean "not 20, and not 26". In reality "23m units" vary a bit from 22.something to 23.something, and (like Pendolinos) the end vehicles are often a different length to the intermediates.

 

[Snow1964]

DfT are now showing a date of 02/03/2026 against this entry on the procurement pipeline as estimated commencement date, so just 1.5 weeks time.

Replacement of Northern Trains Limited’s (NTL’s) oldest rolling stock of 15X vehicles over the coming years with options to replace northerns remaining fleet in a framework agreement over 8 years

Interestingly that date is just before the Spring Statement by the Chancellor, so is it just coincidence or are they intending to spread any positive news announcements over few days for higher PR impact

DfT and associated bodies listing of future commercial contracts (commercial pipeline) - GOV.UK

www.gov.uk

The other Northern procurement for 3 lots now has estimated date of 27th May 2026

And for a different thread, the 29 trains for Transpennine now has estimated commencement date of Monday 30th March, so just 5.5 weeks to go (assuming DfT stick to their estimated dates, which is big if)

 

[ENC Rail]

DfT are now showing a date of 02/03/2026 against this entry on the procurement pipeline as estimated commencement date, so just 1.5 weeks time.

Replacement of Northern Trains Limited’s (NTL’s) oldest rolling stock of 15X vehicles over the coming years with options to replace northerns remaining fleet in a framework agreement over 8 years

Interestingly that date is just before the Spring Statement by the Chancellor, so is it just coincidence or are they intending to spread any positive news announcements over few days for higher PR impact

DfT and associated bodies listing of future commercial contracts (commercial pipeline) - GOV.UK

www.gov.uk

The other Northern procurement for 3 lots now has estimated date of 27th May 2026

And for a different thread, the 29 trains for Transpennine now has estimated commencement date of Monday 30th March, so just 5.5 weeks to go (assuming DfT stick to their estimated dates, which is big if)

That's some good news then!

 

[Rail Quest]

DfT are now showing a date of 02/03/2026 against this entry on the procurement pipeline as estimated commencement date, so just 1.5 weeks time.

Replacement of Northern Trains Limited’s (NTL’s) oldest rolling stock of 15X vehicles over the coming years with options to replace northerns remaining fleet in a framework agreement over 8 years

Interestingly that date is just before the Spring Statement by the Chancellor, so is it just coincidence or are they intending to spread any positive news announcements over few days for higher PR impact

Fantastic news! The sooner the ball gets rolling with this, the better!

100% this will get at the very least a mention in the Spring statement. The government are gagging for good news at the moment, and the replacement of old trains in the North will definitely be seen as not only something positive to include but will also provide an opportunity for them to tout the benefits of GBR in some way.

This date change comes less than a month after Northern appointed a "Director of New Rolling Stock Programmes" for the upcoming procurement, as seen in the article linked below, so they look to be picking up the pace.
Source: https://www.railadvent.co.uk/2026/01/new-director-to-oversee-delivery-of-up-to-450-new-trains.html
[URL redirects to Rail Advent article discussing Northern's appointment of a new Director of New Rolling Stock Programmes]

 

[Stephen42]

DfT are now showing a date of 02/03/2026 against this entry on the procurement pipeline as estimated commencement date, so just 1.5 weeks time.

Replacement of Northern Trains Limited’s (NTL’s) oldest rolling stock of 15X vehicles over the coming years with options to replace northerns remaining fleet in a framework agreement over 8 years

Interestingly that date is just before the Spring Statement by the Chancellor, so is it just coincidence or are they intending to spread any positive news announcements over few days for higher PR impact

DfT and associated bodies listing of future commercial contracts (commercial pipeline) - GOV.UK

www.gov.uk

The other Northern procurement for 3 lots now has estimated date of 27th May 2026

And for a different thread, the 29 trains for Transpennine now has estimated commencement date of Monday 30th March, so just 5.5 weeks to go (assuming DfT stick to their estimated dates, which is big if)

The dates in those spreadsheets are often laughably inaccurate. Some other government departments have listed procurements being issued on Christmas Day in the past.

Northern's appointment of director for new trains press release states early 2027 for contract award. The submissions from manufacturers were only due this month. Depot feasibility studies are expected to be second half of this year. Last week a financial support contract was awarded to support the evaluation process. I'd expect the outputs from the depot feasibility studies would need to go into the business case before it gets signed off.

Northern could make a direct award for existing off lease stock where nature of requirements mean no effective competition. That would be separate from those listed procurements and the listed dates won't be relevant for it.

 

[3RDGEN]

Northern only issued the final tender requests in late 2025 with the EMU bid expected in late Feb 2026, they then need reviewing and final sign off by the DfT so contract sign off / announcement would still be expected late 2026 at the earliest. Unless the EMU contract is now going to be a cascade of existing units I can't see how there can be any confirmed announcements in the next few months.

EDIT:
From Northern website;

"https://www.northernrailway.co.uk/about-us/newtrains" - "Following confirmation from the Department for Transport, we have now issued an Invitation to Submit a Final Tender (ISFT) to manufacturing candidates, ..... How Long Will it Takw - It's not a quick exercise. We expect to be able to award contracts for new trains in late 2026/early 2027."

 

[Snow1964]

Northern only issued the final tender requests in late 2025 with the EMU bid expected in late Feb 2026, they then need reviewing and final sign off by the DfT so contract sign off / announcement would still be expected late 2026 at the earliest. Unless the EMU contract is now going to be a cascade of existing units I can't see how there can be any confirmed announcements in the next few months.

They are final bids, not preliminary bids and discussion points.

It really does not take months to observe the bid price, check the bid against a tick list of specs and announce it. The idea you get this far and only then start to ask if it will get approval is not right. It should be pre-approved if compliant (otherwise no point in spending tens of thousands appraising bids if not approved in principle), so should only take days.

If it takes longer then someone somewhere is stalling, or they never had pre-approval to get this far in the process. Not going to be very popular with bidders (or they will raise prices to cover cost of messing about) if not ready to go.

 

[Class 323 Fan]

DfT are now showing a date of 02/03/2026 against this entry on the procurement pipeline as estimated commencement date, so just 1.5 weeks time.

Replacement of Northern Trains Limited’s (NTL’s) oldest rolling stock of 15X vehicles over the coming years with options to replace northerns remaining fleet in a framework agreement over 8 years

Interestingly that date is just before the Spring Statement by the Chancellor, so is it just coincidence or are they intending to spread any positive news announcements over few days for higher PR impact

DfT and associated bodies listing of future commercial contracts (commercial pipeline) - GOV.UK

www.gov.uk

The other Northern procurement for 3 lots now has estimated date of 27th May 2026

And for a different thread, the 29 trains for Transpennine now has estimated commencement date of Monday 30th March, so just 5.5 weeks to go (assuming DfT stick to their estimated dates, which is big if)

Could I ask, does this mean that the successful bidder/s will be announced in 1.5 weeks?

 

[Snow1964]

Could I ask, does this mean that the successful bidder/s will be announced in 1.5 weeks?

Unlike Government tenders in many other countries where announcements are at date and time indicated. DfT has a rather casual attitude to dates on its indications, sometimes being weeks or months later.

However the Government Spring Statement (when Chancellor announces spending) is definitely Tuesday 3rd March. But it is guesswork if any transport spending ( which is new and not just a rehash of old news) is actually announced. Although with regional elections early May might want to get some feel good projects announced

 

[Class 323 Fan]

Unlike Government tenders in many other countries where announcements are at date and time indicated. DfT has a rather casual attitude to dates on its indications, sometimes being weeks or months later.

However the Government Spring Statement (when Chancellor announces spending) is definitely Tuesday 3rd March. But it is guesswork if any transport spending ( which is new and not just a rehash of old news) is actually announced. Although with regional elections early May might want to get some feel good projects announced

That's confused me, so the announcement for spending is in 1.5 weeks, and then in may the successfull bidder is announced

 

[Killingworth]

Unlike Government tenders in many other countries where announcements are at date and time indicated. DfT has a rather casual attitude to dates on its indications, sometimes being weeks or months later.

However the Government Spring Statement (when Chancellor announces spending) is definitely Tuesday 3rd March. But it is guesswork if any transport spending ( which is new and not just a rehash of old news) is actually announced. Although with regional elections early May might want to get some feel good projects announced

Governments love to add positive padding to any financial statement so I strongly suspect they'll be working to see how they can make the most of this transport spending for the north. A fairly easy win if it's ready. Rehash is quite the normal way they do things.

Now if they announced that they'd found a way for Northern to operate their full Sunday timetable from May (or even December) that really would be a win, but that's several times more difficult.

 

[Snow1964]

That's confused me, so the announcement for spending is in 1.5 weeks, and then in may the successfull bidder is announced

No one knows date when the successful bidder will be announced.
It's been floating around as a concept for few years, and been refined over time, so how much longer they chose to dither over it (when everyone knows it will happen sometime, because old trains cannot go on forever without hugely expensive life extension work, which would be worse value) is an unknown time period.

There is another possible consideration, there are restrictions on what can be announced in the few weeks before an election (known as purdah). But most elections in England are local or Council so it won't be relevant. But where a mayoral contest is involved where mayor has Transport budget it might not happen in a purdah period. But next week is before the purdah anyway.

 

[Class 323 Fan]

I see, makes sense now, going off topic but do you personally have a preferred bidder? Who do you want to win?
You can respond here https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...at-manufacturers-northern-will-choose.295202/

 

[Snow1964]

Dft has updated its procurement spreadsheet March 2026

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69a6a120bc86a487b52c71a9/dft-future-commercial-contracts-dft-partners.csv

Looks like Northern still has 2 procurements and I think dates have been changed (again)

One is supply and maintenance

Supply of new rolling stock and maintenance supply services.
Replacement of Northern Trains Limiteds (NTLs) oldest rolling stock of 15X vehicles over the coming years with options to replace northerns remaining fleet in a framework agreement over 8 years

I assume they mean remaining 15x fleet over 8 years, (not remaining whole fleet).


Second one doesn't mention maintenance, just supply.

Procurement of new rolling stock
The procurement establishes a framework agreement with an 8 year term and this procurement relates to the Phase One requirements which are:
Lot 1: - EMU required for passenger service 2029-30 with an estimated requirement of 12 x 3-vehicle units.
Lot 2: - MMU required for passenger service 2030-31 with an estimated requirement of 48 x 3-vehicle units and 64 x 4-vehicle units.
Lot 3: - BEMU required for passenger service 2032 with an estimated initial requirement of 8 x 4-vehicle units.

note the 3 lots have different delivery dates, so in theory could all go to one company, rather than multiple bidders, who build them at same time.

 

[Stephen42]

Dft has updated its procurement spreadsheet March 2026

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69a6a120bc86a487b52c71a9/dft-future-commercial-contracts-dft-partners.csv

Looks like Northern still has 2 procurements and I think dates have been changed (again)

One is supply and maintenance

I assume they mean remaining 15x fleet over 8 years, (not remaining whole fleet).


Second one doesn't mention maintenance, just supply.

note the 3 lots have different delivery dates, so in theory could all go to one company, rather than multiple bidders, who build them at same time.

A reminder that these procurement spreadsheets are primarily aimed at early pipeline visibility than for updates on well progressed procurements. The information is often stale for ones already in flight compared to updates in press releases/stakeholder presentations.

Most rolling stock procurements have two rows, one for the manufacturer and one for the financier competition. This is the case for Northern, none of the information has changed within the description and they are a brief summary of the already published procurement notices. Commencement date wise the manufacturer competition has changed from 2nd March 2026 to 19th March 2027. The finance one remains 19th May 2026. It looks like some of the details are against the wrong row as well.

What's likely happened is the compiler has noticed the date would be in the past when next iteration published and asked for an update on that row. Someone has then provided a new estimated date that matches what has been posted on here previously. The linked finance procurement had a different date (as was issued later) and still in the future so that row hasn't been changed.

Mystic Meg is not required to predict that both awards will be made at similar times and would suggest ignoring all these commencement dates as it's clear they are not frequently updated.

 

[waverley47]

A reminder that these procurement spreadsheets are primarily aimed at early pipeline visibility than for updates on well progressed procurements. The information is often stale for ones already in flight compared to updates in press releases/stakeholder presentations.

Most rolling stock procurements have two rows, one for the manufacturer and one for the financier competition. This is the case for Northern, none of the information has changed within the description and they are a brief summary of the already published procurement notices. Commencement date wise the manufacturer competition has changed from 2nd March 2026 to 19th March 2027. The finance one remains 19th May 2026. It looks like some of the details are against the wrong row as well.

What's likely happened is the compiler has noticed the date would be in the past when next iteration published and asked for an update on that row. Someone has then provided a new estimated date that matches what has been posted on here previously. The linked finance procurement had a different date (as was issued later) and still in the future so that row hasn't been changed.

Mystic Meg is not required to predict that both awards will be made at similar times and would suggest ignoring all these commencement dates as it's clear they are not frequently updated.

Also important to note that in the slipping of the award date back to spring next year, they will slip down the queue to be after ScotRail, and most likely after the awarding of the GWR contract which is expected (albeit will probably also be delayed) in the autumn.

 

[GoneSouth]

Maybe Scotrail and GWR will have taken all of CAFs capacity and Northern will just have to make do with Flirts

 

[Snow1964]

Maybe Scotrail and GWR will have taken all of CAFs capacity and Northern will just have to make do with Flirts

More seriously various parts are made in European factories, and there have already been a number of big European EMU and BEMU orders in last 2 months.

Every extra week the DfT dithers over orders (that everyone knows are going to have to happen at some stage, because age of what needs replacing), the risk that factory production slots for key components are already taken up for next few years.

These are not nice to have replacements of 25-30 year old trains, we are talking about replacing 34-40 year old trains, so waiting then discovering that since bids originally went in, build queue has grown from 3 years to 5+ years (which based on hundreds of trains ordered in Europe in last few weeks seems reasonable) is not a smart way to minimise costs.

 

[Bornin1980s]

A reminder that these procurement spreadsheets are primarily aimed at early pipeline visibility than for updates on well progressed procurements. The information is often stale for ones already in flight compared to updates in press releases/stakeholder presentations.

Most rolling stock procurements have two rows, one for the manufacturer and one for the financier competition. This is the case for Northern, none of the information has changed within the description and they are a brief summary of the already published procurement notices. Commencement date wise the manufacturer competition has changed from 2nd March 2026 to 19th March 2027. The finance one remains 19th May 2026. It looks like some of the details are against the wrong row as well.

What's likely happened is the compiler has noticed the date would be in the past when next iteration published and asked for an update on that row. Someone has then provided a new estimated date that matches what has been posted on here previously. The linked finance procurement had a different date (as was issued later) and still in the future so that row hasn't been changed.

Mystic Meg is not required to predict that both awards will be made at similar times and would suggest ignoring all these commencement dates as it's clear they are not frequently updated.

Does this mean that we won't even get the shortlist of bidders for another year?

 

[Russel]

Does this mean that we won't even get the shortlist of bidders for another year?

Really dragging this out if that is correct.

Do the DFT / Treasury not realize that can kicking only adds to the overall cost?

 

[3RDGEN]

Does this mean that we won't even get the shortlist of bidders for another year?

Northern have published the initial shortlist, as below, final bids should now have been received from those manufacturers who have committed to final bidding.

"https://www.northernrailway.co.uk/about-us/newtrains" - "How long will it take - It's not a quick exercise. We expect to be able to award contracts for new trains in late 2026/early 2027. The timescales for the introduction of the trains will be developed as part of the procurement process, however, we have set bidders challenging targets to deliver as soon as possible with an aim to have first trains delivered to us in 2030."
"Who will build the new trains - Following an initial shortlisting process we’ve invited five suppliers – Alstom, CAF, Hitachi, Siemens and Stadler – to enter into discussions for the detailed tender process. "

Currently the EMU announcement is hopefully late 2026 with the MMU & BEMU in early 2027, those dates may yet slip once the final quotes come in but if the service dates are to be achieved there is little room for further slippage.

 

[Stephen42]

Also important to note that in the slipping of the award date back to spring next year, they will slip down the queue to be after ScotRail, and most likely after the awarding of the GWR contract which is expected (albeit will probably also be delayed) in the autumn.

As far I'm aware GWR have only done a pre-market engagement. They haven't got a initial procurement notice and the GWR quote to rail magazine was the timescales for rolling stock replacement were uncertain. ScotRail might, but even then the latest finance procurement notice has a commencement dated noted for 2028.

More seriously various parts are made in European factories, and there have already been a number of big European EMU and BEMU orders in last 2 months.

Every extra week the DfT dithers over orders (that everyone knows are going to have to happen at some stage, because age of what needs replacing), the risk that factory production slots for key components are already taken up for next few years.

These are not nice to have replacements of 25-30 year old trains, we are talking about replacing 34-40 year old trains, so waiting then discovering that since bids originally went in, build queue has grown from 3 years to 5+ years (which based on hundreds of trains ordered in Europe in last few weeks seems reasonable) is not a smart way to minimise costs.

The DfT aren't sitting on it. Northern will not be ready to make an order. Even if they've managed to narrow down to a manufacturer, the financier competition will typically be dependent on that winning manufacturer bid price. The depot upgrade feasibility work hasn't completed. The manufacture submissions will be complex, I'd guess with quality scoring as well as minimum specs and verification that the proposal is deliverable to avoid issues during rollout. The whole life cost exercise will be a task in itself and that's before going into all the non-financial aspects of the business case.

 

[Snow1964]

The DfT aren't sitting on it. Northern will not be ready to make an order. Even if they've managed to narrow down to a manufacturer, the financier competition will typically be dependent on that winning manufacturer bid price. The depot upgrade feasibility work hasn't completed. The manufacture submissions will be complex, I'd guess with quality scoring as well as minimum specs and verification that the proposal is deliverable to avoid issues during rollout. The whole life cost exercise will be a task in itself and that's before going into all the non-financial aspects of the business case.

The point I am trying to make is, the longer they take to appraise the bids, the higher the risk any suggested production date will slip, because factories will get other orders for train parts. And cannot complete a train if parts are not available.

This week Alstom has accepted orders for additional 36 Adessia stream commuter trains for Portugal (taking total ordered in October upto 153 trains) and all with accelerated delivery schedule. Today Siemens has announced extra 17 ice3 Neo (taking total to 90 trains) for Germany.

It doesn't take a genius to work out these sort of orders and accelerated delivery schedules have now taken up some component manufacturing capacity. I suspect Northern are going to discover the delivery dates suggested in bids are no longer possible because others (in Europe) have locked in component production slots.

I hope I am wrong, but the way the procurement is going with nothing yet signed, I really cannot see anything getting into service before 2030, maybe even 2032

 

[Killingworth]

The point I am trying to make is, the longer they take to appraise the bids, the higher the risk any suggested production date will slip, because factories will get other orders for train parts. And cannot complete a train if parts are not available.

This week Alstom has accepted orders for additional 36 Adessia stream commuter trains for Portugal (taking total ordered in October upto 153 trains) and all with accelerated delivery schedule. Today Siemens has announced extra 17 ice3 Neo (taking total to 90 trains) for Germany.

It doesn't take a genius to work out these sort of orders and accelerated delivery schedules have now taken up some component manufacturing capacity. I suspect Northern are going to discover the delivery dates suggested in bids are no longer possible because others (in Europe) have locked in component production slots.

I hope I am wrong, but the way the procurement is going with nothing yet signed, I really cannot see anything getting into service before 2030, maybe even 2032

Northern have already said 2031.

 

[GraphitProjekt]

How far does it go before the supply chain scales up.

 

[Class 323 Fan]

The point I am trying to make is, the longer they take to appraise the bids, the higher the risk any suggested production date will slip, because factories will get other orders for train parts. And cannot complete a train if parts are not available.

This week Alstom has accepted orders for additional 36 Adessia stream commuter trains for Portugal (taking total ordered in October upto 153 trains) and all with accelerated delivery schedule. Today Siemens has announced extra 17 ice3 Neo (taking total to 90 trains) for Germany.

It doesn't take a genius to work out these sort of orders and accelerated delivery schedules have now taken up some component manufacturing capacity. I suspect Northern are going to discover the delivery dates suggested in bids are no longer possible because others (in Europe) have locked in component production slots.

I hope I am wrong, but the way the procurement is going with nothing yet signed, I really cannot see anything getting into service before 2030, maybe even 2032

I agree, they need to try and speed it up, as a lot of their manufacturers are getting orders. It'll delay the process more

 

[rattyben]

The point I am trying to make is, the longer they take to appraise the bids, the higher the risk any suggested production date will slip, because factories will get other orders for train parts. And cannot complete a train if parts are not available.

This week Alstom has accepted orders for additional 36 Adessia stream commuter trains for Portugal (taking total ordered in October upto 153 trains) and all with accelerated delivery schedule. Today Siemens has announced extra 17 ice3 Neo (taking total to 90 trains) for Germany.

It doesn't take a genius to work out these sort of orders and accelerated delivery schedules have now taken up some component manufacturing capacity. I suspect Northern are going to discover the delivery dates suggested in bids are no longer possible because others (in Europe) have locked in component production slots.

I hope I am wrong, but the way the procurement is going with nothing yet signed, I really cannot see anything getting into service before 2030, maybe even 2032

I’d still say they are sitting on it, putting up the need for a business case for trains that’ll be pushing 45 years old by that time feels like they’ve been sitting on this known problem for some time.

The reality of this is a lack of preparation, either due to political nonsense or an excessively bureaucratic process.

They know the age of these trains, they know the longer they leave it the more degraded they’ll become and inflation will add to the pressure. They know the time is takes to get these things into service and yet here we are in 2026 trying to keep 40 ish year old trains, that aren’t fit for work they are given going for potentially another 5+ years with no order in sight, no business case completed, no authorisation and not much of a published plan.

If that’s not sitting on it then I’m not sure what is.

Even if Northern keep these units going in some form for another 5 years the increase in demand is going to strain them to their limits.

 

[D365]

Even if Northern keep these units going in some form for another 5 years the increase in demand is going to strain them to their limits.

It will be closer to 10 years before the Class 150s and Class 156s are fully replaced.

 

[Snow1964]

It will be closer to 10 years before the Class 150s and Class 156s are fully replaced.

Northern has the prototype units (from 1984), some early 150/0 (from 1985) and the first part of 150/2 build (from 1986). Some of these are already over 40 years old. So not having any replacements on order (yet) seems bonkers.

Northern 156s date from 1987-88. (The build continued into 1989, but 1989 build ones are in Scotland)

For completeness the small fleet of 155s were built in 1987-88