Thoughts on the Trump presidency

[perstreperous]

It is clear that Trump made two obvious mistakes:

1. Assumed that Iran would fold more or less instantly (same mistake as Russia made vis-a-vis Ukraine);

2. Overestimated the importance of the Supreme Leader (well, he would have!)

Now we have a complete muddle.

 

[AlterEgo]

The major issue is that this is a war of regime change with two points on a map. One, bombing, and two, Persian utopia. Quite how one gets from one point to the other isn't mapped out. Very stupid. This will be the end of Trump as a political force. It's his Iraq, or another massive TACO.

 

[Harpo]

It is clear that Trump made two obvious mistakes:

1. Assumed that Iran would fold more or less instantly (same mistake as Russia made vis-a-vis Ukraine);

2. Overestimated the importance of the Supreme Leader (well, he would have!)

3 Failed to understand how wide the repercussions would be, especially as Middle Eastern issues don’t conform to his very binary ‘Issue 1-2-1 threat/make 1-2-1 deal’ MO.

 

[bleeder4]

The repercussions shouldn't last for much longer though should they? At some point Iran is going to exhaust its stockpile of cruise missiles, or the US will destroy all the launch sites. At the moment Iran is essentially doing what any of us would do if we were being forcibly pummelled to the ground: they're lashing out indiscriminately for as long as they still have strength left.

 

[martin butler]

The repercussions shouldn't last for much longer though should they? At some point Iran is going to exhaust its stockpile of cruise missiles, or the US will destroy all the launch sites. At the moment Iran is essentially doing what any of us would do if we were being forcibly pummelled to the ground: they're lashing out indiscriminately for as long as they still have strength left.

Then will come the asymmetric warfare campaign, cells hitting soft targets in the region, and beyond, When US troops start arriving back in bodybags, the people won't be backing Trump, for very much longer, his backers will drop him,

To Pacify Iran will mean boots on the ground. Will congress allow it? otherwise you have just given an already fanatical part of the population a reason to want to destroy everything the US, and Isreal stands for.

 

[The exile]

The repercussions shouldn't last for much longer though should they? At some point Iran is going to exhaust its stockpile of cruise missiles, or the US will destroy all the launch sites. At the moment Iran is essentially doing what any of us would do if we were being forcibly pummelled to the ground: they're lashing out indiscriminately for as long as they still have strength left.

Suicide bombers need very few resources - 7/7 should have taught us that. Or more to the point, it should have taught Washington that as the folk memory within our security services must still encompass the IRA campaigns.

 

[edwin_m]

The repercussions shouldn't last for much longer though should they? At some point Iran is going to exhaust its stockpile of cruise missiles, or the US will destroy all the launch sites. At the moment Iran is essentially doing what any of us would do if we were being forcibly pummelled to the ground: they're lashing out indiscriminately for as long as they still have strength left.

The question may be whether Iran has more missiles than America and allies have interceptors. I have a suspicion Iran has anticipated these events and got hold of a lot more on the quiet since last summer's attacks. It will be interesting if any forensics surfaces on the downed missles showing, for instance, evidence of Chinese manufacture.

 

[martin butler]

I am rather more concerned that Trump will get bored, and the US forces will stop the attacks and just distance themselves as much as possible. They will claim that they have taught Iran a lesson and given its people a chance to take the reins. Even Netanyahu may not be able to stop Trump doing this.

This will leave an appalling mess in the region and emboldened terrorists all over the place. Meanwhile the Iranian state apparatus will once again turn on its people.

It's well known that Trump has a very short attention span, and even then, does not fully understand what he might be being told, if he isn't being praised, he switches off, and pays no interest. so its entirely possible that he will decide on who whispered in his ear last, and what hold they have over him.

 

[Harpo]

the folk memory within our security services must still encompass the IRA campaigns.

Although those with other agendas prefer to ignore that the only recent co-ordinated campaign of terrorism in the UK was conducted by white christians.

 

[AlterEgo]

Although those with other agendas prefer to ignore that the only recent co-ordinated campaign of terrorism in the UK was conducted by white christians.

"Coordinated" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there.

 

[gg1]

Although those with other agendas prefer to ignore that the only recent co-ordinated campaign of terrorism in the UK was conducted by white christians.

Also conveniently forgetting that the primary source of foreign funding for that campaign was the USA.

 

[Killingworth]

Back in the 1960s when Ban the Bomb and CND were at their peak it was pointed out that anyone using a bomb was countered by their adversary being able to retaliate so they didn't.

For over 80 years diplomacy has kept nuclear powers apart, just. Eliminating Iran's nuclear capability won't make Iranians love Israel or the US. Turning Tehran into a Gaza like demolition site won't either.

History will record these events from the side of the winner. The winner not this week but in 20-50-100 years time. After Trump has gone and Vance has added his contribution, which may be even worse. He'll have a mighty legacy to defend.

Currently Democrats are in a very hard place.

 

[nw1]

Currently Democrats are in a very hard place.

Democrats?

I'd have thought, if anything, their chances of success are increasing all the time. I wonder if we will ever have a President Vance, more likely Trump will bluster on until 2028 and then they'll lose, badly.

 

[AndrewE]

Currently Democrats are will be in a very hard place.

Democrats?

I'd have thought, if anything, their chances of success are increasing all the time. I wonder if we will ever have a President Vance, more likely Trump will bluster on until 2028 and then they'll lose, badly.

The Republicans will lose badly, but the next Democrat government (and many afterwards) will be saddled with the legacy of hatred and mistrust that Trump is bringing on them all. It will make it very difficult to break out of the current isolationist stance.

 

[Gloster]

I am afraid that I think that Trump will only be allowed to stagger on until after the mid-terms or, if Vance gets his way, the end of January. They need him to bring in the MAGA vote for the GOP in a way that Vance can’t, but his health seems to be declining worryingly fast and there will be a point where even the most loyal and loony MAGA voters will realise that he is too far gone.

 

[The exile]

Democrats?

I'd have thought, if anything, their chances of success are increasing all the time. I wonder if we will ever have a President Vance, more likely Trump will bluster on until 2028 and then they'll lose, badly.

At the moment we’re in the phase that happens in any conflict where all but the most vociferous opponents will find it hard to appear to “stab their own country in the back”. It doesn’t always last long….

 

[jon0844]

The short term oil price may have gone up as may have the price of LNG. However, the higher oil price may not last as there is an excess of oil production world wide. And Russian crude is already trading at a substantial discount as Europe and India move away from Russian oil.

Also, the price of LNG is unlikely to stay at elevated levels, as spring is approaching in the important European markets. So demand will reduce.

So it's unlikely to help Russian finances much, which are in an increasing dire state.

My gas unit rate has gone up 1.6p per kWh since Sunday (on a smart tracker tariff) which is the most expensive rate in over a year. But I hope we're moving towards warmer days now.

 

[najaB]

To those saying that Iran won't be able to hold out for long, I'm old enough to remember that the Iran-Iraq war lasted a wee bit longer than a few weeks...

 

[Russel]

To those saying that Iran won't be able to hold out for long, I'm old enough to remember that the Iran-Iraq war lasted a wee bit longer than a few weeks...

Did Iran have a functioning and coordinated leadership during the Iran-Iraq ware though?

 

[AlterEgo]

Did Iran have a functioning and coordinated leadership during the Iran-Iraq ware though?

No. The war started in the midst of Iran's constitutional crisis following the overthrow of the Shah. Iran was an extremely dysfunctional country and Iraq expected to be able to easily crush the Iranians.

 

[ainsworth74]

To those saying that Iran won't be able to hold out for long, I'm old enough to remember that the Iran-Iraq war lasted a wee bit longer than a few weeks...

And in some respects they may not need to hold out that long.

The real race is between whether the US/Isreal (and possibly Gulf States) can destroy enough Iranian launch infrastructure and munitions stockpiles before they run out of anti-air/drone missiles. The US has deep magazines, far deeper than almost anyone else, but even theirs are not inexhaustible. If they begin to reach critically low levels of available munitions before they can degrade Iranian missile and drone launching capabilities....

 

[brad465]

And in some respects they may not need to hold out that long.

The real race is between whether the US/Isreal (and possibly Gulf States) can destroy enough Iranian launch infrastructure and munitions stockpiles before they run out of anti-air/drone missiles. The US has deep magazines, far deeper than almost anyone else, but even theirs are not inexhaustible. If they begin to reach critically low levels of available munitions before they can degrade Iranian missile and drone launching capabilities....

I wouldn't put it past Trump and Netanyahu to firebomb Tehran if they start running out of other ammo and there is still no clear sign of any end to Iran's attacks. They are clearly, to pardon the pun, loose cannons who will get very desperate if things are not looking good for them.

 

[thenorthern]

The FCDO now have an advise against all travel Israel and Iraq. Prior to this it was either check guidance befor traveling or avoid all but essential travel.

UAE, Bahrain, Lebanon, Qatar and Jordan have an FCDO all but essential travel warning. Scary to think that just over 3 years ago the World Cup was in Qatar and that 8 years ago the World Cup was in Russia which has had an FCDO advise against all travel since the start of the Ukraine invasion in 2022. I should point out that with Russia the FCDO do not travel is due to the fact that if a British Citizen has a problem in Russia the FCDO would struggle to help them rather than any risk of war or conflict.

Iran has been an FCDO advise against all travel for more than 10 years I think.

Given the UAE (in particular Dubai) and Bahrain are very popular with wealthy immigrants from Western countries, I wonder if this latest war will put people off moving there.

 

[Krokodil]

Scary to think that just over 3 years ago the World Cup was in Qatar and that 8 years ago the World Cup was in Russia which has had an FCDO advise against all travel since the start of the Ukraine invasion in 2022.

So given that the US is the upcoming host, can we expect travel advisories for there by 2030?

 

[jon0844]

Thanks Trump. As someone on a smart tariff, my gas rate has gone up almost 2p per kWh. Most energy providers have withdrawn a bunch of tariffs entirely so if you didn't change already then you'll be likely forced onto a standard variable one.

The only plus side is that I was able to export almost £8 of electricity today thanks to the grid requiring power and paying a lot for it (£1 per kWh, on top of the standard export rate from my energy provider).

Trump is going to impact a lot of British people already struggling to pay their electric and gas bills.

 

[thenorthern]

So given that the US is the upcoming host, can we expect travel advisories for there by 2030?

If history is anything to go by then the United States, Canada and Mexico should be very worried yes.

I know it's 8 years away but FIFA will probably had very minor discussions about the 2034 World Cup which is due to be held in Saudi Arabia given the situation in the region.

 

[brad465]

Given the UAE (in particular Dubai) and Bahrain are very popular with wealthy immigrants from Western countries, I wonder if this latest war will put people off moving there.

As someone who thinks their business model is morally wrong (tax havens built on slave labour) and damaging other countries' abilities to fund services properly, this is the silver lining from this conflict, though I'd rather it didn't happen because of war. However, it hasn't stopped some desperate individuals and a bot army on social media claiming Dubai with missiles overhead is still safer than London (while probably secretly fleeing Dubai for places like London).

 

[nw1]

So given that the US is the upcoming host, can we expect travel advisories for there by 2030?

Quite frankly there should already be travel advisories, at least until Trump/(Vance) is no longer president.

 

[thenorthern]

Quite frankly there should already be travel advisories, at least until Trump/(Vance) is no longer president.

The rhetoric and language used by the Trump administration is on another level but in a lot of ways the Labour government in the Uniited Kingdom actually has a much stricter immigration policy than the United States.

 

[Krokodil]

The rhetoric and language used by the Trump administration is on another level but in a lot of ways the Labour government in the Uniited Kingdom actually has a much stricter immigration policy than the United States.

I don't recall ever seeing masked armed thugs dragging people out of their cars in the UK for looking a bit brown (regardless of their actual immigration status).