The Labour Party under Andy Burnham

[Topological]

I've created a new thread to discuss the "how do we tax Starbucks" spinoff:

Ways of stopping large business (e.g. the coffee chains) avoiding tax / ways of taxing more fairly?

This is a terrible idea and goes against fundamentals of tax. The principle of taxing a profit is that there's a gain, and the goverment takes a slice of that gain. A turnover tax means if a business owner lost money, you then get penalised further with a tax! mods note - quoted posts are...

www.railforums.co.uk

Good thread.

What is clear from the broader discussion is the importance of actually having a vision. Whether we each agree with a vision or not, the whole point is parties put forward different visions.

 

[styles]

Good thread.

What is clear from the broader discussion is the importance of actually having a vision. Whether we each agree with a vision or not, the whole point is parties put forward different visions.

Indeed, and a clear vision I find lacking in the current Labour Party and in Starmer.

 

[Tetchytyke]

How many are there, what rate of tax do they need to pay to make a difference.

According to the Sunday Times Rich List, there are about 275 families who have a net worth of more than £500M. There are about 155 families with a net worth of more than £1Bn.

Assuming those 275 families have an average net worth of £1Bn (they don't- it's much higher) a 1% wealth tax would net about £3Bn a year.

The Sunday Times Rich List 2026

The Rich List 2026 is our definitive guide to the wealth of the UK’s richest people. Read profiles and interviews, and see all the facts and figures

www.thetimes.com

For context, the cost of asylum seeker financial support is about £4Bn a year.

The Home Office’s annual report and accounts for 2024/25 show that spending on asylum support, resettlement and accommodation totalled £4 billion, down from £4.7 billion the previous financial year.

This comparison of asylum support, benefit fraud and tax avoidance costs is still wrong – Full Fact

A post circulating on Facebook features several inaccurate figures about the cost of “asylum seeker benefits”, benefit fraud and error and tax avoidance.

fullfact.org

So a 1% wealth tax would pretty much generate the same amount of money that people demand is saved from targeting the small boats.

How do you stop them leaving the country to go somewhere else where they pay less tax?

There are numerous ways of doing it.

We could charge an exit tax, like the Swiss do.

We could do what the Americans do, and make anyone with UK citizenship declare their worldwide income to HMRC, irrespective of where they live.

We could cut the number of days you're allowed to be in the UK without becoming liable to pay UK tax.

We could change the rules so that you're deemed to be resident for UK tax purposes if you own property in the UK (either directly or indirectly).

A land tax could be applied. Anders Povlsen might be able to move to Dubai, but he can't take his 90,000 hectares of Scottish forests with him.

Of course some people will up sticks to Dubai and never come back, but the more friction you add the fewer people will do it. Dubai is lovely in the winter but these people would like to visit the UK sometimes. Make it harder.

What is clear from the broader discussion is the importance of actually having a vision. Whether we each agree with a vision or not, the whole point is parties put forward different visions.

Definitely.

You might agree or disagree with a vision, but at least you know there is one. What does this current iteration of Labour actually stand for? What do they actually believe?

This is my issue with the way that Labour are trying to ape Reform and the Tories. Why? Reform are always going to out-Reform the other parties, whatever the other parties suggest Reform will go one step further. We've seen that this week: Labour say they'll make it harder to get citizenship for people with leave to remain, so Reform respond by saying they'll simply deport them, even if they've done everything by the book. I fundamentally disagree with Reform and everything it stands for, but at least I know what it stands for.

People who want Reform policies will vote Reform, they won't go for the sugar-free version being offered by the Conservatives or Labour.

 

[Crithylum]

Labour have just lost the Gorton and Denton by-election behind both the Greens and Reform, by some margin:
Green: 14,980 (40.7%)
Reform: 10,578 (28.7%)
Labour: 9,364 (25.4%)

Comparison to 2024:
Labour: 18,555 (50.8%)
Reform: 5,142 (14.1%)
Green: 4,810 (13.2%)

Interestingly, Electoral Calculus had Reform significantly ahead according to their MRP model (31.7% vs 23.4%). Maybe the Greens are doing better (or Reform worse) than the pollsters currently suggest?

Furthermore, Lucy Powell mentioned that they should stop trying to out reform Reform. Is a policy rethink incoming?

 

[styles]

Labour have just lost the Gorton and Denton by-election behind both the Greens and Reform, by some margin:
Green: 14,980 (40.7%)
Reform: 10,578 (28.7%)
Labour: 9,364 (25.4%)

Comparison to 2024:
Labour: 18,555 (50.8%)
Reform: 5,142 (14.1%)
Green: 4,810 (13.2%)

Interestingly, Electoral Calculus had Reform significantly ahead according to their MRP model (31.7% vs 23.4%). Maybe the Greens are doing better (or Reform worse) than the pollsters currently suggest?

Furthermore, Lucy Powell mentioned that they should stop trying to out reform Reform. Is a policy rethink incoming?

I wonder how Labour would've fared if they'd let Burnham stand.

 

[JamieL]

Hardly a surprise that Labour lost the Gorton and Denton by-election - the Labour Government has been a massive disappointment to nearly every cohort of society. Their anti-immigration rhetoric is disgusting and alienates many whilst not being anywhere near the required ferocity to appeal to Reform voters. Their inability to progress with any issue without U-turning, backtracking and capitulating to the left-extremists has framed the Government as weak and ineffective. Their excessive taxation of the middle classes has haemorrhaged their support amongst 'middle England' that sees Governments elected in this country. Their focus on pumping money into Welfare claimants, at the expense of the broader society, has done nothing to grow or strengthen the economy and improve life for all. Their inability to wholeheartedly renounce Brexit as an absolute debarcle and embrace re-integration with the EU leaves the UK as a whole poorer, weaker and generationally disadvantaged.

Labour have been a crushing disappointment in Government. Marginally better than the Tories who proceeded them, but still totally unfit for Government and it seems unlikely they will recover their position ahead of 2029. Unfortunately, the parties that will replace them - the Greens and Reform - are even worse. Dark days ahead for the UK.

 

[martin butler]

Labour though still have time to change it round, a new PM, one with a vison, and guts, and policies that are fair, and stop pandering to people who will never vote for them in a month of Sundays,

First action should be to enact the leverson findings, to regulate the media and press industry expose who is funding what, and to clamp down on fake media that sets out to mislead, such as the many pro far right sites spreading the airwaves,

Ban Britain first, and other organisations, for hate crime, arrest the leading people who are often at the head of such protests when they openly Insite public disorder and hate, and charge them, bring them to court, imprison them, make it clear that we don't want their filth here.

 

[AlterEgo]

Excellent defenestration of Labour last night. Well deserved.

 

[PGAT]

Labour though still have time to change it round, a new PM, one with a vison, and guts, and policies that are fair, and stop pandering to people who will never vote for them in a month of Sundays,

First action should be to enact the leverson findings, to regulate the media and press industry expose who is funding what, and to clamp down on fake media that sets out to mislead, such as the many pro far right sites spreading the airwaves,

Ban Britain first, and other organisations, for hate crime, arrest the leading people who are often at the head of such protests when they openly Insite public disorder and hate, and charge them, bring them to court, imprison them, make it clear that we don't want their filth here.

Sounds nice in theory but who is actually cut out to do that??

 

[styles]

Sounds nice in theory but who is actually cut out to do that??

Bring back Ed Miliband. Just keep him away from the bacon sarnies.

 

[brad465]

Hardly a surprise that Labour lost the Gorton and Denton by-election - the Labour Government has been a massive disappointment to nearly every cohort of society. Their anti-immigration rhetoric is disgusting and alienates many whilst not being anywhere near the required ferocity to appeal to Reform voters. Their inability to progress with any issue without U-turning, backtracking and capitulating to the left-extremists has framed the Government as weak and ineffective. Their excessive taxation of the middle classes has haemorrhaged their support amongst 'middle England' that sees Governments elected in this country. Their focus on pumping money into Welfare claimants, at the expense of the broader society, has done nothing to grow or strengthen the economy and improve life for all. Their inability to wholeheartedly renounce Brexit as an absolute debarcle and embrace re-integration with the EU leaves the UK as a whole poorer, weaker and generationally disadvantaged.

Labour have been a crushing disappointment in Government. Marginally better than the Tories who proceeded them, but still totally unfit for Government and it seems unlikely they will recover their position ahead of 2029. Unfortunately, the parties that will replace them - the Greens and Reform - are even worse. Dark days ahead for the UK.

This is not going to change without a wholesale reform of the political system. One of the lesser-talked about costs of Brexit is the notable downhill trajectory in politician competency that's followed it. I reckon this started with competent individuals not wanting to touch the issue with a bargepole, and then when we did leave, the way the issue trashed trust in politics overall has led many competent people to stay away, knowing there are several other professions that they can work in with much less public visibility, responsibility and even better pay.

 

[Vinnym]

Sounds nice in theory but who is actually cut out to do that??

Totall agree with you, don’t see any promising candidates in the background

 

[JonathanH]

Their excessive taxation of the middle classes has haemorrhaged their support amongst 'middle England' that sees Governments elected in this country. Their focus on pumping money into Welfare claimants, at the expense of the broader society, has done nothing to grow or strengthen the economy and improve life for all.

You may consider it excessive taxation, but what are the Greens going to do to bring in more money to support those with less affluence?

In her victory speech, the Green Party MP said:

"Except things have changed a lot over the last few decades, because working hard used to get you something.

"It got you a house, a nice life, holidays, it got you somewhere.

"But now, working hard, what does that get you?

"Because talk to anyone here and they will tell you, the people work hard but can't put food on the table, can't get their kids school uniforms, can't put their heating on, can't live off the pension they worked hard to save for, can't even begin to dream about ever having a holiday, ever.

"Because life has changed. Instead of working for a nice life, we're working to line the pockets of billionaires. We are being bled dry."

Yes, there may be more money to generate from billionaires, but where is the rest coming from. Do the Green Party, Labour Party, or anyone, have an answer to that?

Those suffering at the bottom can only generate more money from being paid more, which means higher prices and a vicious circle, or being eligible for welfare.

 

[JamesT]

The other issue with changing leader is that at least some voters punish disloyalty. Is there a tentative replacement whose leadership will overcome being seen as a scheming backstabber who defenestrated a Labour leader who delivered a landslide general election victory less than two years ago?

 

[styles]

You may consider it excessive taxation, but what are the Greens going to do to bring in more money to support those with less affluence?

In her victory speech, the Green Party MP said:

"Except things have changed a lot over the last few decades, because working hard used to get you something.

"It got you a house, a nice life, holidays, it got you somewhere.

"But now, working hard, what does that get you?

"Because talk to anyone here and they will tell you, the people work hard but can't put food on the table, can't get their kids school uniforms, can't put their heating on, can't live off the pension they worked hard to save for, can't even begin to dream about ever having a holiday, ever.

"Because life has changed. Instead of working for a nice life, we're working to line the pockets of billionaires. We are being bled dry."

Yes, there may be more money to generate from billionaires, but where is the rest coming from. Do the Green Party, Labour Party, or anyone, have an answer to that?

Those suffering at the bottom can only generate more money from being paid more, which means higher prices and a vicious circle, or being eligible for welfare.

I suppose I don't want to go into too much detail here as this is a thread about the Labour Party under Starmer.

But their wealth taxes they suggest will raise £50bn. For context, the budget deficit for 2025-26 is forecast by the OBR to be £52bn.

The Greens also take a different view towards the economy than Conservatives, Reform, Lib Dems, and often even Labour. Their proposals are to say increase energy security through investing in renewable energy, including encouraging households to adopt measures to generate their own power, or reduce their energy usage through e.g. better energy efficiency. That's to take one policy area where government investment may involve a high capital investment but should deliver instant and long-term bills discounts, for example. Assuming the rest of the Greens' manifesto follows a similar pattern, that's basically how they'll do it.

If Labour were taking the same approach, we'd have grants back on already for solar panels. Labour have introduced the Warm Homes Plan (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/warm-homes-plan) but it's pretty weak. I don't live in England, but I checked my last address and, to date, I wouldn't be eligible for anything, because the EPC rating is a C.

That is a different economic model to what we've had for a long time now which is just - reduce the deficit, practically at any cost.

 

[JonathanH]

I suppose I don't want to go into too much detail here as this is a thread about the Labour Party under Starmer.

Yes, I posted here rather than in the Green thread as I think the question I have is what can Labour do better to address the move of its support to the Green Party in the critical aspect of making poorer people feel better off.

 

[AlterEgo]

Yes, I posted here rather than in the Green thread as I think the question I have is what can Labour do better to address the move of its support to the Green Party in the critical aspect of making poorer people feel better off.

It also isn't so much "making people feel better off". Some voters do count the pennies, of course, but what is more important is the sense of managed decline and long term malaise that a grey, NPC solicitor is unable to address. The man does not even sincerely hold his own opinions.

A lot of the decline in the UK is based on two significant cultural problems - using broadly the same economic model since 1980, and refusing to address boiling frog issues. Governments here are afraid of enacting policy by fiat and we are subjected endlessly to rounds of consultation, compromise and capitulation.

I hope they are massacred in the May elections. Only the Greens and Reform are offering significantly different visions of a future UK. It is no surprise both parties did well in last night's by-election. Labour are outflanked on the right by Reform and on the left by the Greens.

 

[Falcon1200]

First action should be to enact the leverson findings, to regulate the media and press industry

That is a very dangerous road to go down; The press does not get everything right but no political party should dictate what can be published, especially when that did not in any way, as far as I recall, form any part of their manifesto or promises in 2024, and was certainly not in any shape or form why I voted Labour back then.

Regardless, Starmer is finished, well he was anyway but the by-election result simply confirms it.

 

[Class73Electro]

Have we reached the point were, sadly, this just isn't possible?

You lower taxes - public spending gets squeezed even more then we currently have
Increase minimum wage - Companies complain, prices go up, back to square 1
Increase benefits to minimum wage earners - Increased costs with no income source to pay for them
Tax higher earners - risky if they then leave...

Only possibility... lower taxes, and hope the increased spending offsets this?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Feb 2026 ==

That is a very dangerous road to go down; The press does not get everything right but no political party should dictate what can be published, especially when that did not in any way, as far as I recall, form any part of their manifesto or promises in 2024, and was certainly not in any shape or form why I voted Labour back then.

I agree, in the sense that the free press should be free...

Trouble is when its quite clear that there is... a distinct bias. You defintley feel there is a "Labour (and Greens!) is EVIL!" vibe from the big newspapers

 

[Topological]

It is only the morning after, but already I see the BBC are using the language of protest vote. Both Green and Reform offer visions. Yet it is still framed as if people choose which party beats Labour in a by-election.

The Green vision is further from my vision than Reform, but both are far from my own vision. It may just be that significant proportions of Gorton and Denton do align with one of those two visions.

For Labour the problem is that they cannot counter both Green and Reform. My feeling is that Labour need to go back to being Labour, accept that there will be constituencies that are lost, but recognise that there is a huge chunk of the UK that would still return a Labour government under FPTP.

For the Conservatives, there is less panic. They should not go after Reform either. Provide a clear version of what Conservatves are in terms of individualism and smaller state and they will see of Reform. Reform cannot out Conservative the Conservatives.

I dont think this is a signal to replace Starmer. It is a signal to provide vision and lead as a Labour party.

 

[JamieL]

Have we reached the point were, sadly, this just isn't possible?

You lower taxes - public spending gets squeezed even more then we currently have
Increase minimum wage - Companies complain, prices go up, back to square 1
Increase benefits to minimum wage earners - Increased costs with no income source to pay for them
Tax higher earners - risky if they then leave...

Only possibility... lower taxes, and hope the increased spending offsets this?

The aim is create an environment where the economy can grow. High taxes just stifle growth as people, not just millionaires but average middle incomers, try and preserve what they have. We also need to incentivise work - the aim should be to create a huge delta between non-working on benefits and working wealth.

 

[weeklycommuter]

Excellent defenestration of Labour last night. Well deserved.

In this Gorton and Denton by-election compared to the General Election on 4 July 2024 the vote share changes are Green +28% Labour -25% Reform UK +15% Conservatives -9%. The 48% by-election turnout is about the same as at the General Election.

It is impossible to know the reasons every voter decided on their voting choice. The vote share changes are almost entirely Conservative to Reform UK and Labour to Green. There is no switch from Labour to Reform UK. It is possible that many Labour voters decided to vote Green to block the Reform UK candidate as they concluded that voting Green was the way to do this.

 

[AlterEgo]

It is only the morning after, but already I see the BBC are using the language of protest vote.

Where have they said this? I haven't noticed them say this.

 

[Topological]

Have we reached the point were, sadly, this just isn't possible?

You lower taxes - public spending gets squeezed even more then we currently have
Increase minimum wage - Companies complain, prices go up, back to square 1
Increase benefits to minimum wage earners - Increased costs with no income source to pay for them
Tax higher earners - risky if they then leave...

Only possibility... lower taxes, and hope the increased spending offsets this?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Feb 2026 ==


I agree, in the sense that the free press should be free...

Trouble is when its quite clear that there is... a distinct bias. You defintley feel there is a "Labour (and Greens!) is EVIL!" vibe from the big newspapers

Lower tax is the approach the Conservatives should be promoting. That comes with being "nasty" but there is no reason for the Conservatives not to own that space. It might look bad in papers, but lets face it the UK votes for "nasty".

For Labour it is about investment. Projects that clearly have long term paybacks that interest the capital markets. There is an allergy to deficits in this country that is unfounded. Defecits should not be used to fund day-to-day spending, but they should be used for capital projects. Also it is fine to run deficits in the bad times, but you should run surplus in the good times (see failings of Blair and Brown in the mid 2000s). Labour need to own that narrative and become a party which invests in future.

I think then you have the clear water between the two main parties and genuinely have a two party system that secures the UK.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Feb 2026 ==

Where have they said this? I haven't noticed them say this.

This is from the live feed:

Recent by-elections show just how fragmented British politics has becomepublished at 07:58
07:58​

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent

But what if some of those voters come to see the Greens, instead, as their best hope of stopping Reform? After all, that’s the decision voters here in Gorton and Denton made.

But, what if people just see Green as the right fit?

 

[RT4038]

Trouble is when its quite clear that there is... a distinct bias. You defintley feel there is a "Labour (and Greens!) is EVIL!" vibe from the big newspapers

That is pretty good. 'Quite clear' is underpinned by 'definitely feel'. Hardly concrete evidence then.....

 

[martin butler]

Have we reached the point were, sadly, this just isn't possible?

You lower taxes - public spending gets squeezed even more then we currently have
Increase minimum wage - Companies complain, prices go up, back to square 1
Increase benefits to minimum wage earners - Increased costs with no income source to pay for them
Tax higher earners - risky if they then leave...

Only possibility... lower taxes, and hope the increased spending offsets this?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Feb 2026 ==


I agree, in the sense that the free press should be free...

Trouble is when its quite clear that there is... a distinct bias. You defintley feel there is a "Labour (and Greens!) is EVIL!" vibe from the big newspapers

Obviously, I'm going to disagree, the media cannot be trusted to police its own house, hence why we see the overwhelming pro right bias with no moderation to control the more dangerous bits

Racists are now emboldened to show themselves for what they are, and it is making an already sensitive cross community situation worse, it's almost like the 1970's with the national front, but worse, because it's now on social media, and people do believe what they read, and then act, most of it is lies, a few loud mouths being given a platform, to spread their hate.

 

[Topological]

Obviously, I'm going to disagree, the media cannot be trusted to police its own house, hence why we see the overwhelming pro right bias with no moderation to control the more dangerous bits

Racists are now emboldened to show themselves for what they are, and it is making an already sensitive cross community situation worse, it's almost like the 1970's with the national front, but worse, because it's now on social media, and people do believe what they read, and then act, most of it is lies, a few loud mouths being given a platform, to spread their hate.

Whilst there is a danger that we are going to drift off topic, I would make two key points:

1. The Mirror and Guardian are not right wing papers and are mainstream
2. Papers do what sells. Businesses may be "evil" but they are businesses. They switch around to make sure that they make money. If the middle papers are going right it is because they believe that is the angle to sell.

It is also worth saying that the majority of papers will go against the government. Currently we have a Labour government and hence the majority of the papers position against Labour.

I would also point out the commentary on Trump is not favourable and Trump is very much not left.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Are labour going to take this result and finally result they cannot out reform Farage, and instead they need to be worried about losing the left of their vote share to the greens? This has already happened in soke places like Bristol but is clearly a huge blind spot for them given their constant attempts at winning support from reform supporters.

 

[Tetchytyke]

2. Papers do what sells. Businesses may be "evil" but they are businesses. They switch around to make sure that they make money. If the middle papers are going right it is because they believe that is the angle to sell.

The issue with that analysis is that, quite simply, newspapers don't sell anymore. Newspapers aren't profitable.

This means that they have become hobbies for very rich people who want a veneer of respectability. It also means that they no longer have to chase circulation. They have increasingly become nothing more than the mouthpieces of the people who own them. Look how the Independent and the Evening Standard lurched to the right when Lebedev bought them, likewise look how the i lurched to the right when Rothermere bought it.

The only exception seems to be the newspapers owned by Reach PLC. And Reach just take the sensible business decision by hedging their bets and covering all bases; the Daily Mirror and the Daily Express are published from the same offices by largely the same people.

Are labour going to take this result and finally result they cannot out reform Farage, and instead they need to be worried about losing the left of their vote share to the greens?

I certainly hope so.

People who want Reform policies want full fat Reform policies. They don't want the sugar-free version. As I've been saying for a long time, you don't go and see the tribute act when the real band are in town.

Sounds nice in theory but who is actually cut out to do that??

Labour are in the position because their rogue political adviser Dominic Cummings Morgan McSweeney spent so long briefing and leaking against his opponents that they're all damaged goods. A year ago I'd have said someone like Rayner would have been a good replacement but she's still damaged goods because of the stamp duty thing (and I wonder who in Labour leaked that, eh, Morgan?)

I live in fear that they'll go for someone like Wes Streeting, who is one of the most unpleasant people I have ever had the misfortune of having to work with.

 

[brad465]

In this Gorton and Denton by-election compared to the General Election on 4 July 2024 the vote share changes are Green +28% Labour -25% Reform UK +15% Conservatives -9%. The 48% by-election turnout is about the same as at the General Election.

It is impossible to know the reasons every voter decided on their voting choice. The vote share changes are almost entirely Conservative to Reform UK and Labour to Green. There is no switch from Labour to Reform UK. It is possible that many Labour voters decided to vote Green to block the Reform UK candidate as they concluded that voting Green was the way to do this.

We must remember that some voters from 2024 stayed at home yesterday, and some absent voters in 2024 turned out today. Vote swings is not as black and white as seen on paper.