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Will AI take your job? (Dispatches C4)

Bletchleyite

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OK - then it is structured differently - but as income tax will presumably continue to exist and have higher rates for higher earners any UBI will eventually be de facto clawed back from higher earners-

It will in the sense that very high earners would pay tax on their earned income that if you earn enough may (will) exceed the amount of the UBI. But...

just as (AIUI - not being personally affected !) the personal tax allowance starts to be clawed back under current arrangements once you hit a certain income.

This is one of the most incredibly stupid things in the tax system and needs to be removed, not perpetuated further into any UBI system. It is regressive by creating a marginal tax rate of 60% on what is a high but not super-high band of income. A higher percentage on higher income/capital gains is much more appropriate.
 
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styles

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This is one of the most incredibly stupid things in the tax system and needs to be removed, not perpetuated further into any UBI system. It is regressive by creating a marginal tax rate of 60% on what is a high but not super-high band of income. A higher percentage on higher income/capital gains is much more appropriate.
67.5% up here in bonny Scotland :)

Plus 2% NI, 9% student loans...
 

Sun Chariot

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This is one of the most incredibly stupid things in the tax system and needs to be removed, not perpetuated further into any UBI system. It is regressive by creating a marginal tax rate of 60% on what is a high but not super-high band of income. A higher percentage on higher income/capital gains is much more appropriate.
I'll drift OT for a mo..

100% agree. My wife and I were both affected by that exact scenario - me 2 years ago, my wife this year - with different employers for different employer errors. Employers' owings to us (in my case, 3 years' underpayment) pushed us out of our PSA entitlement.
Worst of all, we were each made redundant in the same tax year that our PSA was removed - straining already-strained finances.
 

styles

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I'll drift OT for a mo..

100% agree. My wife and I were both affected by that exact scenario - me 2 years ago, my wife this year - with different employers for different employer errors. Employers' owings to us (in my case, 3 years' underpayment) pushed us out of our PSA entitlement.
Worst of all, we were each made redundant in the same tax year that our PSA was removed - straining already-strained finances.
The usual trick here, unless you're earning a significant amount over £100k, is to salary sacrifice it for a cycle to work scheme bike, pension, company EV, buying annual leave days; or make net pay pension contributions and claim tax relief on the contributions.

But yeah otherwise it sucks. With NI and student loans in Scotland you see a little over a fifth of the additional income. And yeah £100k is a decent salary, but it's hardly so high that it justifies this tax hit.
 

deltic

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Even if we got to a point where no airline pilots were required, I think that a lot of passengers would feel uncomfortable flying in a fully staffless plane. My prediction is that there will still be a requirement for cabin crew to be on board, who can take over control of the plane in an emergency.
China is already on the verge of launching pilotless air taxis.

What we have seen with other technological developments is that while large numbers of jobs are destroyed, countless more are created. You dont have to go back many generations to when most of us would have worked on the land, then a high proportion would have worked in manufacturing and now most of us are in the service sector. In my lifetime we have lost staffed telephone exchanges and typing pools - work mainly undertaken by women, but there are now more women in the workforce than ever before. Innovations like spreadsheets and computers have wiped out lots of roles in my area of work but has enabled to do analysis that would have been impossible in the past and AI is likely to have the same impact. we will have access to more and more insights to improve decision making or have to spend more time trying to see the wood for the trees as we drown in data.
 

Sun Chariot

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The usual trick here, unless you're earning a significant amount over £100k, is to salary sacrifice it for a cycle to work scheme bike, pension, company EV, buying annual leave days; or make net pay pension contributions and claim tax relief on the contributions
Normally, yes - but not when we were each made redundant within two months of getting our owed paynent. We couldn't even have it adjusted on our tax code to pay as installments over a whole tax year. Nope - just one big tax hit each...

Neither redundancy was due to AI, btw.
 
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cactustwirly

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The bigger picture for me if is AI takes say 50% of the jobs how does the economy survive with 50% less consumers?

A universal basic income? How do you deal with the inequalities between those who go to work and those how get a free ride?

Another alternative I have seen proposed is much early retirement maybe at 45 or 50 but again how do we support a much bigger none earning contingent?

How do we rebalance the economy for the new reality?
Our country will collapse basically, if 50% become unemployed it will be a total disaster.
Consumption will drop because no one will be able to afford to buy anything and tax income will fall dramatically.

All this talk of UBI is nonsense, it's complete pie in the sky, the current welfare state is unaffordable, so how does a much larger state get paid for on 50% less tax? It doesn't

The whole concept I am against totally, it's basically communism. You can't work to have nice things, you're trapped on a stagnant income with no meaningful life
 

cactustwirly

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With regard to reducing tax income, it means changing what you tax from income to wealth and business profits
made from AI use.
Yes because large corporations like Amazon and Starbucks are already good taxpayers and don't have any complex schemes to avoid tax at all...

Wealth taxes do not work because they ignore places like the Channel Islands, Isle of Man etc
 

Railwaycat

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This is a good one:


"Footage shows the moment Russia's first anthropomorphic robot, AIdol, fell just seconds after its debut at a technology event in Moscow.
The robot was being led on stage to the soundtrack from the film 'Rocky', before it suddenly lost its balance and fell. Assistants could then be seen scrambling to cover it with a cloth - which ended up tangling in the process"

Seems like robotics (apart from the "dogs") is a long way behind AI - Have I Got News For You showed a couple of similar disastrous demonstrations last week!
 
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najaB

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Seems like robotics (apart from the "dogs") is a long way behind AI - Have I Got News For You showed a couple of similar disastrous demonstrations last week!
Yes, and no. Andromorphic robots are a pain because the human body was designed by committee - evolution had to work with what it had, rather than designing from scratch. A bipedal, upright gait with a top-heavy body is difficult - just look at how hard long it takes for babies to start walking.
 

styles

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Well, I installed an insiders version of my go-to dev environment, and it was a bit creepy. The grey bit is an AI suggested autocomplete, and something I didn't even have to enable.

1763064070368.png
 

brad465

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In a few weeks we will get Time Person of the Year for 2025. Two bookies are offering odds with AI as the favourite with 5/2, just ahead of Trump on 3/1. This is why I'm not worried about AI, because if it wins this award, Trump will shut AI down (or at least put 100% tariffs on it) for revenge ;)
 

brad465

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"The Architects of AI" are TIME magazine's "person" of the year:


Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2025 is not a single person.
Instead, the magazine has given its annual award recognising the year's most influential figure to "the architects" of artificial intelligence (AI).
Nvidia boss Jensen Huang, Meta head Mark Zuckerberg, X owner Elon Musk and AI "godmother" Fei-Fei Li are among those depicted on one of the magazine's two covers.
Experts say it highlights how quickly AI, and the firms behind it, are reshaping society.
It comes as a boom in the technology, ushered in by OpenAI's launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, continues at pace.
The firm said in September its chatbot is used by around 700 million people every week.
Big tech firms are pouring billions of dollars into AI and the infrastructure behind it in a bid to stay ahead of rivals.
There are two covers this year - one a piece of art depicting the letters AI surrounded by workers, and another a painting focused on the tech leaders themselves.

Waiting now for Trump to put tariffs on AI as he doesn't feature anywhere.
 

najaB

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Waiting now for Trump to put tariffs on AI as he doesn't feature anywhere.
Don't worry, [picks a sporting body at random] World Aquatics will probably name him their person of the year and give him a medal.
 

Broucek

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Yay! Increased electricity and water consumption, reduced white collar hiring and slop!

It's vital that we recognise the fantastic contribution these folk are making /s

Aside from the Pope, are there any other influential people who are concerned about what AI might do to society?
 

DerekC

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There is an excellent article in the Indy today. It puts into words much better than I can the concerns I have about likely impact of AI on the UK (and the rest of the world):

https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/ai-job-losses-tech-sector-b2892803.html?lid=a9i2dw06nrp7&utm_medium=email&utm_source=braze&utm_campaign=The%20Weekend%20Edit%20(Subscriber%20version)%2004-01-2026&utm_term=IND_Weekend_Edit&empar=298d4843031c0862a7d7a4725851a22687f7ff72385029c74a1e381b4bc70f4


Britain has made a huge miscalculation – the era of the AI unemployables is here. 04 January 2026 06:00 GMT

While the government heralded plans for Britain’s first automated research lab, leading AI expert Professor Yu Xiong, who previously chaired the UK all-party parliamentary group on the metaverse and web 3.0, says there is a shocking lack of preparedness for the potential .

It is estimated that in Britain alone, eight million jobs could now be exposed to AI-powered automation (Getty/iStock)
When the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, warns that AI will displace workers as profoundly as the industrial revolution, the era of blinkered optimism is over. Britain has spent decades assuming that services and research would protect it from its post-industrial decline. Now, as we enter the automated Now, as we enter the automated age, that promise is truly collapsing.
At the end of last year, Google’s AI arm, DeepMind, unveiled plans for Britain’s first automated research lab – one strand of Silicon Valley’s $40bn push into new AI infrastructure. While ministers welcomed it as evidence that Labour’s global AI ambitions were finally taking shape, such promises deserve caution
Many assumed that, unlike the automation that hollowed out British agriculture and manufacturing jobs, research and development would remain a stubbornly human preserve. DeepMind is ending that illusion.

Part of the miscalculation lies in what we think AI does. Many believe it understands ideas in broadly human terms. But as experts like Sachin Dev Duggal and Gary Marcus point out, today’s systems are not reasoners at all. They are powerful statistical engines – “reasoning parrots” – extracting patterns from existing work and turning knowledge into repeatable processes machines can perform faster than people. That is why so much supposedly cognitive work has proved easier to automate than expected.

There is no mystery how this ends. As far back as 2016, at Foxconn, a supplier in China for Apple and Samsung, more than 60,000 factory workers were replaced by robots. Ten years on, according to recent reports, Amazon will use more robots in its warehouses than human employees.


Already more than 1 million machines are deployed across facilities doing the heavy lifting warehouse work, picking items down from tall shelves and moving goods around facilities. According to The Wall Street Journal, others are becoming advanced enough to help humans sort and package orders.

In December, speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, the Bank of England’s governor, Andrew Bailey, suggested the widespread adoption of AI could mirror previous profound societal shifts. Mr Bailey said: “As you saw in the industrial revolution, now over time, I think we can now sort of look back and say it didn’t cause mass unemployment, but it did displace people from jobs, and this is important.

“My guess would be that it’s most likely that AI may well have a similar effect. So we need to be prepared for that, in a sense.”


‘Godfather of AI’ Geoffrey Hinton is one of many experts to warn of the impact of AI on jobs (AP)
However, just a few days ago, Geoffrey Hinton, the computer scientist known as the “godfather of AI”, was even more stark in his unequivocal assessment. In an interview on CNN’s State of the Union, he said that AI will have the “capabilities to replace many, many jobs” in 2026.

“We’re going to see AI get even better. It’s already extremely good,” Hinton said. “Each seven months or so, it gets to be able to do tasks that are about twice as long.” Noting that AI has already moved from “a minute’s worth of coding” to “whole projects that are, like, an hour long”, he added: “In a few years’ time, it’ll be able to do software engineering projects that are months long, and then there’ll be very few people needed.”

It is estimated that in Britain alone, eight million jobs could now be exposed to AI-powered automation. In earlier transitions, those displaced could regain economic footing elsewhere. Today, automation cuts across sectors at once, from manufacturing to white-collar jobs, leaving fewer routes back into paid work. Research and development jobs will fare no better. And once even this middle-class refuge gives way, what comes next?

The worry is that those in power don’t understand the gravity of the situation. In my recent work chairing the all-party parliamentary groups on the metaverse, web 3.0, and blockchain, the mood inside the government was not one of ignorance so much as a structural mismatch. Ministers, advisers, and civil servants focused on competitiveness – on not “missing the next wave” of growth – while the consequences of automation were treated as downstream problems.


Gary Marcus, Professor Emeritus at New York University, has warned that AI systems are not ‘reasoners’ (AFP/Getty)
What was concerning to me was how little attention was being given to how these technologies would reshape labour and how quickly it would happen. AI policy prioritised acceleration over preparedness and the worry is that governments will be left racing to respond to social consequences that will arrive faster than its institutions are designed to handle.

The risk is that this narrow focus on growth produces something far less benign: An AI-driven underclass, permanently displaced from work and pushed towards dependence – a modern lumpenproletariat. In my view, there wasn’t and isn’t enough thought given to just how little capacity the state had to manage large-scale displacement.

And this is no longer a sometime-in-the-future problem, either. The outlines of this new caste are already visible. A recent King’s College study found that firms most exposed to AI reduced employment by 4.5 per cent, while job listings fell by nearly a quarter. The study found that high-paying firms and professional occupations had experienced the most significant declines in employment and wages due to AI.

This matters because social spending is already at record levels, with close to a third of a trillion pounds being devoted to welfare. At the same time, millions are economically inactive through sickness or exclusion. Add another cohort of AI unemployables – especially in the high-wage sectors who have traditionally propped up Britain’s economic and social model, and you can see how it begins to fail. While conversations are being had about universal basic income, a lot fewer are being had about who exactly is going to pay for it.

Doom prepping by tech billionaires isn’t because they are worried that the robots will turn their guns onto humans or instigate a catastrophic biotech event. Those at the top of the tech tree understand that it won’t be war or plague that drives anyone underground. If AI hollows out the middle class – the most productive part of society, responsible for two-thirds of income tax receipts – the entire system collapses. It may be that those fretting about billionaires busy building their bunkers are onto something.


Google DeepMind’s Aeneas AI has been used to decipher context in ancient Roman Latin texts (Robbe Wulgaert)
You don’t need to indulge apocalyptic fantasies to see the danger. Displaced workers often seek narratives that give their anger shape. Left feeling underpaid, underappreciated and under-employed, people quickly mobilise and look for someone to blame. This ire and dissatisfaction can be readily exploited by those offering easy yet untested answers. Even industry voices warn that large-scale AI-driven displacement, if left unmanaged, carries the seed of social unrest.

But perhaps the biggest crisis of all lies in what happens to our collective self-worth. AI now presents a paradoxical promise – liberation through replacement. Machines can already outperform us in precision, endurance, and analysis. Yet in modern Britain, vocation is not just how people earn a living, it is the organising principle of adult life. Remove that at scale and what follows is a loss of identity that neither welfare nor rhetoric can easily repair.

That is why, as we enter the new year, this moment is not only about jobs, but the future of social purpose. And this is where AI forces us to confront the question we have spent decades avoiding.

Marx once sought to free humanity from the alienation of labour. Automation may yet complete that project, not through revolution, but through technological inevitability – much as the cotton gin displaced manual work. But if its gains accrue only to those who own the systems, efficiency quickly curdles into hierarchy. As wealth and power concentrate in the hands of the few who own the machines, without safeguards, the digital age could remake economic dependence into a kind modern serfdom masked as progress.

The danger is that the government remains stuck measuring progress through paid employment, while the nature of work quietly changes underneath it. But an AI future could point towards an opportunity too – what could be described as Human 3.0. Not a world of leisure, per se, but one in which fewer people live to work and instead live to generate value for themselves and others. If creation, ownership and autonomy begin to matter as much as wages, we could move towards what I call “participatory economy” – one that recognises value beyond monies earned.

Cultural production, local leadership and civic work already sustain society, yet sit outside the labour market. If automation is to work politically, its gains must be shared through participation and dividends, not simply higher returns to capital. Ultimately, as a society, we need to understand how to measure, celebrate and reward human contribution beyond the wage packet. Efficiency alone is no longer a valid metric of success. The difficulty is how we measure this worth; contribution outside employment is hard to see, let alone reward. Could AI help us with that?
 

Broucek

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Apologies if I've said this before, but the new Pope seems to be one of very, very few global figures who are concerned about this.

Automation has historically replaced back-breaking manual jobs. Now it's replacing junior lawyers....
 

brad465

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Something I've believed will happen is now getting backed up by articles, which is that AI populism is on the cards. Such a movement is basically anti-AI in a lot of ways, including data centres, dodgy AI tools/programs and thrives on fears of lost jobs. What's also noticeable is this has transcended political boundaries in a different way, where in the US bipartisan support for AI controls exist, but also with resistance being across normal political boundaries:


Securing American primacy in artificial intelligence has become a central aim of President Donald Trump’s second term. Washington’s objectives are clear: to preserve America’s lead in artificial intelligence, spread its preferred “AI stack”—the full set of chips, software, data and cloud infrastructure that make advanced systems work—and extend the country’s military, intelligence, and economic edge.
To achieve this, the Trump Administration and its allies in Silicon Valley argue for policies that prize innovation over regulation, and for a rapid buildout of the infrastructure AI requires: data centers, high-capacity power supplies, and fiber networks. Trump began this push on his first day back in the White House, when he rolled back the AI safety regulations and guardrails of the Biden era. The president’s July 2025 AI Action Plan presented a blueprint for achieving global AI dominance by accelerating AI innovation, cutting regulation, and taking a “build, baby, build” approach to AI infrastructure. And, in December, Trump signed an executive order designed to constrain the ability of states to regulate AI—including by threatening to deny federal funds to states with “the most onerous and excessive laws” that “threaten to stymie innovation.”

A significant segment of the American population opposes Trump’s laissez-faire approach, and the absence of broad popular support would threaten America’s quest for dominance in artificial intelligence. Popular opposition to data centers is likely the canary in the coal mine. Propelled by concerns about data centers driving up the price of electricity and water, and creating pollution, community resistance against data center construction is growing across the country. Politicians are taking note, with growing bipartisan calls for tech companies to pay their “fair share” of utility costs––including from the president himself. If 2026 proves to be the year of AI takeoff, the concerns of numerous Americans about its effects on our economy, politics, and human relationships could coalesce into a potent populist political force.
Until recently, policy debates around AI have been the preserve of wonks and technology specialists. That reality is changing as Americans begin to feel the early tremors of the coming AI earthquake: skyrocketing electricity bills, disappearing jobs, and mind-boggling applications such as Moltbook, a new social network where AI bots engage with and learn exclusively from one another.

AI policy is ascending as a priority in American political discourse, particularly around questions of affordability and jobs. State-level elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and Georgia last year have already illustrated its importance. The midterm elections in November will likely crystallize this shift. By the time voters head to the polls in the 2028 presidential election, we will have entered a new era of AI politics, with artificial intelligence poised to emerge as a defining issue of that race.

Americans and the AI anxiety​

Public opinion polling on AI remains remarkably sparse, but the little that exists paints a portrait of anxiety. Six in 10 Americans distrust AI and almost all agree that regulations prioritizing AI safety and security are essential, according to Gallup. A recent Pew Research Center survey found that half of Americans feel more concern than excitement about AI’s increasing presence in daily life; 57% rate its risks to society as high, while only a quarter see the benefits as high. According to YouGov, 77% worry that AI could eventually pose a threat to humanity.

Perhaps most revealing is the gap between the AI experts building the future and the public living in it: the experts express far greater optimism about AI’s potential to benefit everything from the economy to education to the environment.
My research points to similar conclusions. Late last year, I convened more than 300 Americans—with a focus on the swing states of Arizona, Michigan, and Georgia—to solicit their views of the future of America’s role in the world. I met Republicans, Democrats, and independents from 29 states, ranging from Gen Z college students to mayors and small business owners. I had come to ask about U.S. foreign policy and global cooperation. What they wanted to discuss was AI.
Many Americans I met recognized that AI enhances American economic and military power, but they were far more concerned about its long-term costs for their families and communities. I heard them worry aloud about the inadequacy of AI regulation in protecting children and preventing the wildfire spread of misinformation.

I found them anxious about AI exacerbating economic inequality, jeopardizing their employment prospects, and amplifying political polarization while eroding the quality of education and degrading Americans’ capacity to perform critical cognitive tasks. I heard immediate, tangible complaints about the impact of AI on their communities: electricity bills climbing skyward and the incessant hum of data centers disrupting once-quiet neighborhoods.
Rather than a boon to the local economy, data centers were seen as a drain on local resources—operations that benefit from generous incentives, drive up utility costs for communities, and generate few permanent jobs in return. Tech industry insiders were bullish on the need for rapid AI innovation. Nearly everyone else sounded a note of deep pessimism.
Similar sentiments are already reshaping politics at the state and local levels. For now, the most intense debates focus on data center construction, a particularly charged issue in swing states that host some of the largest data center markets, which helps explain why it caught President Trump’s attention. Electricity costs figured prominently in Virginia’s gubernatorial election last November, where data centers are proliferating and typical facilities consume as much electricity as 100,000 households. In Georgia, Democrats secured their first seats on the state utility regulatory commission since 2007, propelled by similar concerns. And in Arizona, local opposition has already blocked several major data center projects.

These rumbles are only the beginning. As companies deploy AI more aggressively and workforce disruptions ripple across industries and regions, job elimination may well become the next political lightning rod. And as the rate of technological change outpaces society’s ability to adapt to it, the U.S. will soon be ripe for a full-blown populist backlash against artificial intelligence. National security arguments for a zero-regulation environment that helps the U.S. outrun China are unlikely to resonate with voters who have watched their middle class jobs evaporate or who struggle to pay surging electricity bills. The chasm between the promises of the tech oligarchy and the reality of Main Street will give birth to furious political battles.

The new politics of AI​

The emerging politics of AI does not map onto the traditional left-right ideological spectrum, and is already spawning unexpected coalitions. Once again, the debate over data centers offers a preview. Socialist Vermont Senator, Bernie Sanders and conservative Florida Governor, Ron DeSantis have emerged as leading opponents of AI data center construction—even as Sanders’s proposed moratorium failed to win over fellow progressives. At the local level, Republicans and Democrats have united behind community movements to block proposed facilities. And Republican senators including Josh Hawley, Katie Britt, and Marsha Blackburn are demanding tougher AI regulation—a stance notably at odds with their president’s.

This political muddle reflects a deeper reality: neither party has found its footing on AI policy. Given President Trump’s anti-regulation policies and conspicuous coziness with Big Tech, Democrats should be winning this argument. They are not. Though majorities in both parties favor stronger AI regulation, neither party has established a clear political advantage.
To prevail, Democrats need to develop a fresh political vocabulary for AI policy. Americans have never voted with AI as an electoral issue, and most politicians have yet to master the debate. Democrats must acknowledge the tangible difficulties, losses, and anxieties Americans are experiencing, even as the AI boom lifts stock markets and innovation promises revolutionary productivity gains. They cannot let the voters forget how much of the Trump Administration’s AI agenda appears designed to benefit the tech moguls who helped propel him to power and continue to fill his political coffers.

The policy challenge is to craft an agenda that is responsible rather than reactionary. Public opinion seems to favor a balanced approach: one that prioritizes rules and consumer protection over sprinting to compete with China, without abandoning AI progress entirely. A new Democratic platform might rest on three planks. The first is regulation covering everything from data center construction to privacy protections, trust and safety standards, and legal liability frameworks. The aim should be to ensure AI is developed safely and securely, and to hold companies accountable for negligent behavior, while maintaining space for rapid innovation.
The second plank is social policy: new government programs to support people impacted by AI development, from retraining for workers impacted by AI-related layoffs to price stabilization in electricity markets strained by data centers. The third is national security policy that extends America’s AI advantages such as export controls restricting China’s access to the most sophisticated AI chips. Such measures would buy Washington time to develop prudent policies and manage AI-related disruptions without ceding leadership to Beijing.

Across all three planks, Democrats should reject the Trump Administration’s deference to the private sector, seeking instead a more sustainable balance between commercial interests (which often arrive with campaign contributions attached), concerns about economic equity, and the broader national interest.

The AI race is undoubtedly the most consequential strategic competition of our time. But geopolitics will not supersede retail politics. If politicians, tech leaders, and national security experts do not quickly adapt to this reality, a populist backlash could derail America’s AI ambitions.
 

nw1

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To be quite honest, tight and robust legislation against unethical uses of AI, including its use to replace jobs, is needed.

I realise this is probably seen as a far-left point of view, but I think something urgently needs to be done before we see huge numbers of unemployed people in the UK alone.

Just who is the use of AI for mass replacement of jobs benefiting? CEOs and shareholders, mostly. Basically, the elite. It certainly doesn't seem to be of any benefit to society as a whole. We will just end up with millions of people in poverty and little tax income. Time the politicians realised this and acted. The directors and shareholders might whinge and whine, but the rest of us would feel a hell of a lot more secure.
 
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Sun Chariot

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I fuĺly agree with the principle of ensuring AI will only be used ethically - across aĺl purposes, all nations, all governments, all private and public sector organisations.
As to how that is implementable, let alone governable, I really cannot conceive.

I've seen a value-add of AI within (non-UK) medical predictive prognoses, enabling an identification of most likely future sufferers of Alzheimers (with those people enrolled into mitigating trials / treatments, several years before the fiirst signs of their actual symptoms).

I remain unconvinced about mandating "no jobs at risk". AI serves to unblock intensive and/or inefficient human interventions. The notion of "keep working how we work now, or how we always do it" misses the point of AI a little, in my view.

As an aside - considering job losses not AI related - I cannot get meaningful accurate stats of how many UK jobs have been lost since the Covid-19 pandemic began.
I have (with AI: oh, the irony!) high-level stats for UK company insolvencies a) since start of Covid-19 and b) under the current ruling UK Government. Stats attached.
 

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XFeed

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I'm sure we once said this about rail, but driverless trains are very much a thing now, even if not in the UK so much.

I don`t think AI is ever going to replace me with my head in a train electrical cupboard replacing a faulty component.
 

Bantamzen

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I don`t think AI is ever going to replace me with my head in a train electrical cupboard replacing a faulty component.
Probably not, however in time AI may be able to redesign components that will fail less.
 

nw1

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The notion of "keep working how we work now, or how we always do it" misses the point of AI a little, in my view.
But isn't that what perhaps should happen to an extent, to avoid possible mass unemployment, a huge benefits bill, drastically reduced tax revenue, and a possible breakdown of society as a result?

Do we want to live in a world where a vast range of jobs, from service jobs to highly-skilled technical and professional jobs, have been replaced by AI?
 
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Class 317

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Probably not, however in time AI may be able to redesign components that will fail less.
For a lot of manual jobs like kitchen fitters, plumbers etc AI is unlikely to replace them directly. However if society does not handle the reduction in jobs we'll then it will reduce demand and therefore jobs in these areas.

Rather than the AI itself being a problem I see it more as how society chooses to reshape to deal with it. For example if AI takes 30% of jobs everyone could work 30% less hours and have more free time. However to achieve this the older generations would have to accept people working less hours for similar pay to keep the economy going or prices have to fall particularly for housing.

It's going to be a tough transition to manage and get right.
 

nw1

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For a lot of manual jobs like kitchen fitters, plumbers etc AI is unlikely to replace them directly. However if society does not handle the reduction in jobs we'll then it will reduce demand and therefore jobs in these areas.
My concern is for the non-manual jobs at all levels. If you don't have manual skills (not all of us are good with their hands - I'm not and I've known this since childhood) will it become difficult to find work, unless you have very special "elite" skills? And even if you do have manual skills, presumably there will be much more competition for said jobs?
Rather than the AI itself being a problem I see it more as how society chooses to reshape to deal with it. For example if AI takes 30% of jobs everyone could work 30% less hours and have more free time. However to achieve this the older generations would have to accept people working less hours for similar pay to keep the economy going or prices have to fall particularly for housing.

It's going to be a tough transition to manage and get right.

But if people work 30% less hours then they are presumably paid 30% less. Result: a pretty miserable life, and a downright struggle for those on lower pay.

I'd agree AI itself isn't the problem, but the use (or we could say, abuse) of AI to reduce jobs is.

It's telling to me that the biggest proponents of unregulated AI include Donald Trump and billionaire tech bros. Do these people honestly reflect society as a whole?
 
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Sun Chariot

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But isn't that what perhaps should happen to an extent, to avoid possible mass unemployment, a huge benefits bill, drastically reduced tax revenue, and a possible breakdown of society as a result?

Do we want to live in a world where a vast range of jobs, from service jobs to highly-skilled technical and professional jobs, have been replaced by AI?
I look at it in two ways:

1) technology has been driving changes to ways of working / orgs' size + structure / roles + headcount for years. It's not a new thing.

2) AI - used properly and ethically - enables better use of the "human interventions" within a role or organisation. I've come from safety critical sectors, where AI provides a "safety-net" for the required rapid decision-making.
 
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Topological

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The challenge with any transition is that no one really knows what comes next.

My job as a university academic is a case in point. I work for the University of Manchester, not the best in the UK, but certainly one of the best. As we all have experience of education, then hopefully the following will resonate.

In a class a teacher provides knowledge to the class. At the university level that knowledge is just one step of the learning. Lectures are the introduction and the signpost for further reading. The communication with students is clear. For each hour of contact we expect 4 hours of work outside the classroom.

Traditionally, the lecturer would leverage their own knowledge and expertise. The students would be directed to the library to read the knowledge of others that had been committed to paper. The lecturer is guiding the learning. Tutorials/Seminars then ask students to discuss what they read. The students would write essays and take exams to evidence their learning and the highest marks would be reserved for those who evidenced they had really followed the self-development trajectory. A university degree is a signal of effort and engagement far more than it is the specific knowledge covered.

At each stage of this process there is a role for AI. As lecturers we can get AI to write content, produce fancy graphics, develop interactive elements and really enhance the "feel" of the work. But I in Manchester have access to the same AI as someone in The University of Neath (there is not one, hence the choice to avoid offence). A homogenisation of material in the sector is becoming clear. However, it is not just within the lecture theatres that homogeneity hits. Students can access the same materials online, they could feasibily get Manchester materials without meeting Manchester entry requirements, or indeed paying Manchester fees. MIT and others have provided materials online for free since well before the pandemic. AI just reduces the differential of MIT.

The students used to go to the library and get books. They then got the internet and could read online. That was a good balance because it increased accessibility and students were not competing for the 10 copies of a text that were available to the 800 students in the class (we have modules over 1000 at the moment). We did see a downsizing of libraries, but nothing too drastic and libraries were not a massive section anyway. More roles were creating sorting the electronic archives. AI now does the reading, summarises texts and takes the learning away. This worries my colleagues greatly. However, I just see it as an opportunity to let the classification genuinely reflect the difference between those who have engaged with the paper and those who use a surface level summary from a generalist AI. The impact is likely to be a reversal of the grade inflation we have seen in the sector for decades.

Seminars and tutorials are the platform for discussion. In oxbridge they have the very small groups, but the financial reality of government cuts (tuition fees lagging inflation - off topic, but a huge hit to the sector) These platforms are still there. AI offers routes to reduce effort on the part of the students and the seminar leader. Indeed with Agentic AI the whole process can be simulated. Much of the discussion of the sector focuses on the lectures and sleep-walking into homogenisation. However, I actually think that the seminar is where AI needs to be addressed the most. Will this mean the end of jobs for the PhD students as demonstrators? I don't know, but if it does it will have a seismic shift as it is the seminar delivery wage that supports students through their PhDs in so many cases.

Assessment is the main focus of the AI question. AI can write essays, even theses, but they just are not very good. By definition they will never be any good. AI draws from a generalist pool. Even focused academic AIs are never going to be able to block out more "relevant" results because they fall below academic thresholds. Then the AIs develop answers they think sounds right to the reader. The reader is (again by definition) a student who is learning, not an expert who knows to tell the AI it is wrong. We get a lot of slop. At the moment there is a push for students to have to declare use of AI, provide prompts etc. However, to me that is as daft as asking my generation to list every question we put into Ask Jeeves, or my wife's cohort who finally had Google Scholar. Of course, exams in person are a solution, but they are going to become ever more detached and wont let us assess if students have the skills they truly need in the workplace.

Most sectors will see similar impacts at each stage of their flow. There will be some change and some adaptation. In higher education we do risk massive reductions in institution numbers. However, if the government want to get hold of it then we have the experience of handling transition before and can handle this one. Sadly, the sector is in decline and hamstrung by both parties insistence on using a fee-based structure makes it impossible to get the money in that even inflation linked fees would have given us. Instead increasingly under pressure institutions are losing staff and making staff firefight. AI gives a way out. It is sad.

I do not share the gloom on here and certainly do not see the end of life as we know it. However I do make two predictions:

  1. Globalisation is now unstoppable - AI does not have borders, we have to act at the global level. Multinational corporations laughing at our tax system was already a thing, but we could at least ban them. AI (and specifically generative AI and agentic AI) will not respect local laws. Unlike physical stores, we cannot ban AI.
  2. Government will be too slow to act - We are entering the equivalent of de-industrialisation and the 1970s/80s. Putting politics aside, the country has recovered on average. The country will recover again. There will be a bumpy ride and someone needs to provide a vision of the future like Thatcher did (and Monetarism did internationally). I dont know what vision will emerge, but the gulf is already forming and a vision is desparately needed. Reform is a reaction not a vision and can only ever be part of the turbulence.
These are obvious predictions perhaps, but they emphasise how poorly both parties have governed over the past decade.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

I look at it in two ways:

1) technology has been driving changes to ways of working / orgs' size + structure / roles + headcount for years. It's not a new thing.

2) AI - used properly and ethically - enables better use of the "human interventions" within a role or organisation. I've come from safety critical sectors, where AI provides a "safety-net" for the required rapid decision-making.
I should add these two points are completely accurate. I just hope my first part of the post signals how the "human interventions" are being trained.
 

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