It's been an interesting thread, and
@TheGrandWazoo has, in my opinion, summed things up excellently, as is often the way!
I do think a lot of people made the mistake of expecting there to be immediate change, not realising that companies take a long time to turn around. I'll admit, I've also fallen into that trap once or twice (e.g. that Merseyside bids may have gone in under previous management), and it's also very tempting to think that as CEO, Martijn Gilbert (MG) will be making the same sort of changes he would as an MD. I have spoken to a few local drivers who met him on his tour of the depots and the feedback was unanimously positive, echoing much of what I'd seen and heard was his style at Go North East.
iSquared have not gone into this with their eyes closed: they were after Arriva the first time it was up for sale, tried First, and were on the second Arriva announcement quickly. It's hard not to see that as having been after a UK Bus company for a while... they also don't seem to sell very much of what they purchase. They've headhunted MG back from rail, and seem willing to spend the money... at least in the short term. If they'd done their due diligence, they would have known even before thy bought it that much investment was going to be required - and may have secured a purchase price accordingly.
If the experiences of enthusiast organisations have been anything to go by, Arriva seem to have been rather anti anyone with a business interest in recent years, whether that's enthusiast, busman or enthusiastic busman. A change in interpretation may also help in the long run, bringing people interested in their work back into the business. That may also stop some of the lunacy we see with customer services, such as my local company spending more time advertising local coffee shops and football matches on its' Facebook page than it does service changes...
Arriva Midlands and Shires - Leicester has been the most obvious recipient of investment though Luton has also benefitted and those two centres (and Derby) are the main areas that they could invest and develop. Tamworth is overdue its EVs and they are investing in the Shropshire ops. Certainly, the commercial team seem to be amongst the most active. MK is certainly one depot that might be challenging to get right but I'd say it's the OpCo with the greatest scope to develop operations.
External money has certainly helped across the board in Leicester, and Luton benefits extensively from the Airport - I spent some time there on a Sunday last summer and was surprised by the frequencies, even on routes not directly serving the airport, and there was a good deal of interchange at the Station. The contrast with, say, Aylesbury, couldn't be stronger.
Arriva Cymru - this operation has really declined over recent years, possibly as a result of Welsh Govt approaches but also Arriva's failings - they really have made some oddly bad decisions. It really does need some investment but, of course, the spectre of franchising is looming large.
Arriva Yorkshire - another operation that has suffered with a lack of investment though there is some fleet replacement being done. Of course, franchising is the great unknown and they have a lot to lose with extensive operations in Wakefield borough and the former Woollen districts
Arriva Merseyside/NW - this is the big news currently, and arguably one of the powerhouse operations. They've lost the franchises for Wirral and St Helens, and were the dominant operator with most to lose. Arriva didn't participate in Greater Manchester, and perhaps that was a missed opportunity as it could have enabled them to learn the rules of a game that isn't the same as in London.
Lumping these three together, partially out of lack of knowledge but also because they face the same sort of issues. Newer bids, with the stronger financing behind it, may do better than earlier ones. Ultimately, franchising will be much closer to the European ops, and where the money is likely to be made. There is then "pocket money" to play around with the remaining deregulated areas.
Arriva North East/Northumbria - the Northumberland operations are in reasonable shape and will continue with the ability to operate into Tyneside on a permit basis. The bigger threat is the abstraction of trade by the reopened rail line against their killer routes from Ashington, Bedlington and Blyth - new vehicles have appeared there sporadically and there are new EVs arriving. It's the North East operations that have really declined, especially in Co Durham where the network is now skeletal. New vehicles are arriving and Darlington/Belmont are getting electrics but there's a lot to do and it's not the most economically active of areas.
Having only seen ANE operations once, in 2022, even in "cheap seats" territory the fleet looked tidier in the NE than the SE. 'Reasonable' seems about right, but that was before the closure of Jesmond (? The one closest to the city centre).
Arriva Southern Counties - this is the real concern. It seems bereft of a strategic plan and a lack of investment is evident in the age of the fleet and continuing cuts. In some respects, the old M&D ops in Kent should seem to be a perfect area to invest and develop, and a supportive LA should enable Herts to be better than it is. Yes, places like Harlow and Hemel will always be challenging but there should be a business to be created; I just don't know if Arriva has a plan yet.
As a long-suffering passenger and long-hopeful enthusiast, I can only agree. The plan seems to be death by a thousand cuts, with no real idea of what passengers want: the fares go up, the level of service goes down. The shadow fares for my 3 mile journey into town are now something like £4.50 single. The only adult fare under £3 is now for a journey of up to 0.5 miles (£2.70). Season tickets rose by teen-percentages in summer, and we've just had another fare increase a fortnight ago. A previous fare increase only worked out from the start of the route, so you could get a less-than-£3 fare from the town centre to, say, five stops down the road, but at the far end of the route, you couldn't even get a bus around the corner for less than £3. The worst anomalies seem to have been fixed this time around, even if there isn't much difference between £2.70 and £3.
At the same time, we have ludicrous timetables with different times the entire day for schooldays and school holidays (erm... what if you don't have children, and Kent and Medway now regularly have different holiday days, including a whole week in October). My local route is now less frequent in the M-F PM peak than the same time on Saturdays, because a recent change to the road layout pumped 5 minutes into every journey, for a journey time that is marginally different at best, depending on how you catch the traffic lights.
Then we get to things like the 701 (Maidstone - Bluewater), which was so popular in Summer 2024 that it was bought back for Christmas, yet in 2025 was "not commercially viable" (which seems to have been shorthand for "not enough drivers"), and still gets regular requests on company social media for it to make a return.
There is definitely possibility for careful expansion - or perhaps un-retrenchment, to coin a phrase - here in Kent, but it's going to take quite a while to win back passenger confidence. Very pleased to see some new vehicles on order to replace our vehicles that are old enough to buy alcohol if you took to them to a pub, and nobody necessarily expects 10 minute frequencies back where they are now 20, but 20 to 15, or 15 to 12, shouldn't be too difficult on busy town centre routes, especially at the three depots in Kent (of four) that are allegedly fully staffed.
news.railbusinessdaily.com
www.flickr.com
