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London Buses Discussion

Mark L

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If they’re not normal days and they’re not bank or public holidays what exactly are they then??
Can I suggest that you take a look at the dictionary definition of “normal” and ask yourself whether a working day (ie not a bank/public holiday) on which demand on the bus network is known to be at least 20% below the average for a working day meets this?
 
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WibbleWobble

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The term used in all my jobs in the industry is "shoulder days". Normally refers to the "twixtmas" days between Christmas and New Year, but can extend to any time a non-standard timetable applies.
 

PeterC

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I suspect this isn't your firsthand experience, perhaps just an assumption. N routes in London are insanely popular, especially on Friday & Saturday evenings.
I remember my mother seeing a bus laying over at the terminus and sounding off about buses being "always empty".
 

Statto

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A Saturday service schedule is still busier than say Bank Holiday or Sunday service as well.

Because of when NYD falls, it's pointless putting normal service on 2nd January, much easier to reinstate it from the 5th.

Yep, most people are off work until the 5th January, thus mornings are quieter than normal (traffic can be like a Sunday morning until 10am), & passenger loadings are quieter than on a normal weekday too, Saturday service during the Festive season is fine.
 

700007

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Are you sure you aren't mistaking ISA with mobileye? Apologies if I've got this wrong, but I was quite certain that LTs aren't fitted with ISA.
In the same manner - Mobileye is only fitted on some LTs (Transport UK springs to mind who pretty much have it fleet wide). ISA isn't on every LT but some operators have had it installed and it has the speed limiter sign on the dash. My understanding with ISA on the LT is however it does not *usually* cap the bus to the local speed limit, but instead will produce a loud alarm sound if the bus is speeding over the limit with a prominent APPLY BRAKE warning in amber on the dashboard. This will only deactivate once the bus is under the speed limit again. It's a unique form of ISA compared to other buses. If I can ever find a photo or proof of it, I'll try remember to post it here!

I am unsure if Mobileye and ISA work in tandem together but I believe Mobileye can detect speeding and is aware of the local road speed limit? They even have Mobileye out in other countries such as Singapore now.

Why do TFL offer a Saturday bus service yesterday, today and Friday, which to all intents and purposes are normal working days?
It has been said above but mainly to do with the fact that a major chunk of workers in London will be off for the festive period. Even leisure activity falls between Christmas and the New Year for a variety of reasons; not limited to, but including financial pressures as a result of spending a lot of money at Christmas, people just wishing to recharge at home or perhaps being away from London for the festive period (perhaps out in the country, or out of the country). A lot of places close for the festive week or have limited opening hours, too. In (now) 2026 with the advent of home-working as well, the few office workers who are working will probably likely be able to work remotely from home or somewhere local and at more flexible times than the usual 9-5.

It is worth noting in London that most routes on a Saturday schedule have the same or virtually similar frequency (every 8 minutes as opposed to 7-8, or every 12 minutes instead of 10) as they would do on a normal weekday. The only difference is that the service is a bit slower to 'wake up' on an early Saturday morning as the 'peak' frequency will likely only be reached after 10am on most routes whereas on a weekday this would likely be in for 7am.

Traffic levels are also far, far lower during the festive week and a Saturday schedule with less running time works far better (and is likely cheaper to run) too. I would actually argue that today (Friday 2 Jan) should be a Saturday schedule as opposed to a normal weekday given that most people who are off over Christmas and New Year would likely return to work on Monday and not today.
 

Snow1964

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A number of London bus routes (after months of delay) are slowly receiving new electric buses, with latest routes being

31 White City - Camden with BYD B11 E02
47 Catford - Shoreditch with Wrightbus electroliner
 

darloscott

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I am unsure if Mobileye and ISA work in tandem together but I believe Mobileye can detect speeding and is aware of the local road speed limit? They even have Mobileye out in other countries such as Singapore now.
We have Mobileye on our (newer) fleet here in Queensland in Australia and from a driver perspective it is just simply annoying. It is indeed aware of the road speed limits however it is not foolproof as I have seen a few mistaken speed signs when driving on a Busway next to the highway. It doesn’t actively alarm with speeding at least on our fleet, but as soon as you cross a white line it goes off.
 

Edvid

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Bill Cahill, MD of First Bus London was recently interviewed by The Standard. It's a comprehensive piece but I've quoted just the first few paragraphs for brevity.

Sir Sadiq Khan’s ambition of electrifying the entire London bus fleet by 2030 will be “next to impossible to achieve”, according to a bus company executive.

Bill Cahill, managing director of First Bus London, said his firm was committed to hitting the mayor’s challenging target but said it involved far more than simply buying new buses.

More than 2,600 of 9,000 buses in the capital are now “zero emission” – almost 30 per cent - but Transport for London says it will take until 2034 to convert the entire fleet without Government funding.
 

MotCO

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Bill Cahill, MD of First Bus London was recently interviewed by The Standard. It's a comprehensive piece but I've quoted just the first few paragraphs for brevity.


Which could be interesting considering that most contract renewals using diesel buses finish in 2027/8. If there is no money for conversions to EV operation, will there be enough diesel buses still around in London to continue after 2027/28, which aren't 'time-expired'?
 

Snow1964

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Which could be interesting considering that most contract renewals using diesel buses finish in 2027/8. If there is no money for conversions to EV operation, will there be enough diesel buses still around in London to continue after 2027/28, which aren't 'time-expired'?
If it helps, the bus age profile is in the annual TfL bus fleet audit.

Normally TfL bases its fleet on 14 year London life, so if add 14 years to introduction date, get an approx withdrawal date. However the age profile is not very even, there are lean and busy renewal years.

Quoting the most recent (at 31 March 2025) fleet audit :

2015 buses 164 diesel, 609 hybrid, 0 electric (total 773)
2016 buses 247 diesel, 722 hybrid, 49 electric (total 1018)
2017 buses 305 diesel, 676 hybrid, 18 electric (total 999)
2018 buses 199 diesel, 478 hybrid, 66 electric (total 743)
2019 buses 174 diesel, 203 hybrid, 98 electric (total 475)
2020 buses 13 diesel, 130 hybrid, 170 electric, 4 hydrogen (total 317)
2021 buses 0 diesel, 0 hybrid, 318 electric, 26 hydrogen (total 334)
2022 (and later) all buses electric

Clearly unless TfL intends to retire lots of diesel and hybrids early and replace them by expensive electric buses, they are going to have diminishing number of diesel and hybrids until about 2034


So TfL have to make a decision at some stage if they want to renew contracts for diesel buses in 2027-28 (even if only for extra 2-5 years)
 

Mikey C

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There can't be that many pure diesels left, as hybrids have been the norm for double deckers for ages. Getting rid of the remaining pure diesel single deckers should be possible by 2028 certainly.

And a massively rushed order for enormous numbers of new electric buses by 2028 will create a massive bubble in bus orders, which will primarily benefit the giant Chinese suppliers, then leave a famine afterwards.
 

Hophead

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The issue, though, isn't so much ordering electric buses, as the article states; it's the lead times involved in electrifying the garages. I'm intrigued by the unique (if that's the word used - I read it earlier today) project under way at Stamford Brook.
 

MotCO

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If it helps, the bus age profile is in the annual TfL bus fleet audit.

Normally TfL bases its fleet on 14 year London life, so if add 14 years to introduction date, get an approx withdrawal date. However the age profile is not very even, there are lean and busy renewal years.

Quoting the most recent (at 31 March 2025) fleet audit :

2015 buses 164 diesel, 609 hybrid, 0 electric (total 773)
2016 buses 247 diesel, 722 hybrid, 49 electric (total 1018)
2017 buses 305 diesel, 676 hybrid, 18 electric (total 999)
2018 buses 199 diesel, 478 hybrid, 66 electric (total 743)
2019 buses 174 diesel, 203 hybrid, 98 electric (total 475)
2020 buses 13 diesel, 130 hybrid, 170 electric, 4 hydrogen (total 317)
2021 buses 0 diesel, 0 hybrid, 318 electric, 26 hydrogen (total 334)
2022 (and later) all buses electric

Clearly unless TfL intends to retire lots of diesel and hybrids early and replace them by expensive electric buses, they are going to have diminishing number of diesel and hybrids until about 2034


So TfL have to make a decision at some stage if they want to renew contracts for diesel buses in 2027-28 (even if only for extra 2-5 years)

Thanks for that. So, to get rid off all diesels by 2034, and to meet the 14 year age restriction, there have to be approx 1,100 new EVs. And it is unlikely that any non-London buses can be transferred into London since they are unlikely to meet TfL spec, e.g. dual door, frontal impact standards etc.
 

Intro298

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There can't be that many pure diesels left, as hybrids have been the norm for double deckers for ages. Getting rid of the remaining pure diesel single deckers should be possible by 2028 certainly.

And a massively rushed order for enormous numbers of new electric buses by 2028 will create a massive bubble in bus orders, which will primarily benefit the giant Chinese suppliers, then leave a famine afterwards.
The newest diesel double deckers still operating on the TfL network are Arriva's 65-reg Enviro400s. They have a bit of an uncertain future in London, as they're slated to be replaced by BD11s this year, but theoretically could operate on another new contract up to 2030 with no issues. Not very relevant, but before Sullivan's exited the London market, their 2017 diesel Enviro400 MMCs were the newest double decker diesels on the network, and I believe the last double deck diesels ever ordered for TfL services.

On the single deck side of things though, thanks to hybrid single deckers never becoming a viable option, new diesel single deckers were being ordered consistently until 2020, so it would be much harder to completely get rid of those diesels before 2030, especially with such short notice.
 

PGAT

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Diesel single deckers absolutely will not be gone before 2030 as plenty of those diesel routes have been given contracts up until 2030.

Something will need to be done about the 170 as every suitable battery electric bus is too tall to fit under the railway bridge on Lombard Road.
 

Thirteen

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Diesel single deckers absolutely will not be gone before 2030 as plenty of those diesel routes have been given contracts up until 2030.

Something will need to be done about the 170 as every suitable battery electric bus is too tall to fit under the railway bridge on Lombard Road.
Could the ieTram Bus work for the 170 or possibly the BYD B12? The only other option is rerouting.
 

Snow1964

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There can't be that many pure diesels left, as hybrids have been the norm for double deckers for ages. Getting rid of the remaining pure diesel single deckers should be possible by 2028 certainly.
The last diesels were the SDE class short 9m enviro200 for the K1 contract in spring 2020 (then operated by RATP)

Can combine the data in tables 7 and 2 of fleet audit to work out the numbers of pure diesel (not hybrid) in each year


2020 diesel, 13 single decks
2019 diesel, 174 single decks
2018 diesel, 199 single decks
2017 diesel, 305 single decks
2016 diesel, 181 single decks, 66 double decks
2015 diesel, 144 single decks, 20 double decks
2014 diesel, 66 single decks, 11 double decks

And a massively rushed order for enormous numbers of new electric buses by 2028 will create a massive bubble in bus orders, which will primarily benefit the giant Chinese suppliers, then leave a famine afterwards.
Another bulge has longer term consequences, the desire to be all low floor by early 2006 saw huge numbers of buses bought early 2000s, then virtually nothing new for 2 years to mid 2008. Then these early low floor all needed replacing around 12-13 years later, hence around 1000 buses each year mid 2015 to mid 2018, before dropping off to few hundred for next few years to 2024

In an ideal world would be replacing about 600-650 buses each year, (or around 50-55 per month) not having feast and famine.

In blunt terms if they went all electric by 2028, got to replace around 3000 buses early.
 

Mark L

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Could the ieTram Bus work for the 170 or possibly the BYD B12? The only other option is rerouting.
The clearance on the southbound side of the Lombard Road bridge is 3m. An ieTram is 3.3m and the BD12 is 3.2m. The only currently available EV that comes close in the Enviro 100EV, at 3.1m, but to accommodate this the bridge would need replating (I am assuming that there is more than 10cm of wriggle room!) but this would also require a change to established practice for determining height restrictions.

Alternatively something like this might be the answer (but without the roof pod!) - https://www.flickr.com/photos/166796028@N08/51168599681
 

700007

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I think 2030 is a struggle to make the entire network zero emissions. The lead time frame to introduce new electric buses from tender award to introduction seems to be around the 15-24 month mark. Several routes have been receiving their buses almost two years after the tender award. Much of it comes down to infrastructure provision as Bill Cahill mentioned in the article. No amount of money or willpower in the world from the operators, the manufacturers and TfL can get National Grid to keep up with the rapidly increasing demand to increase the amount of power to bus garages to enable fleet-wide electrification.

Some garages will have to wait ages for this, and other garages are unlikely to be suitable for full electrification due to space constraints. Installing chargers and generators eats into a lot of premium space which could make run-in and run-outs far more complex than with a traditional diesel set up and reduces overall garage capacity. At that point, the operator will have to ponder if they should 'deliberately' accept that they have to lose a bit of work to make everything fit, move routes to another garage (which comes with its own associated costs) or open up an additional or replacement garage that is better suited to EV operation.

You also have to look at the fact that TfL have only managed to get around 30% of the entire network electrified as of January 2026, despite only permitting zero-emission vehicle orders for the last 6 years and having started this whole process around 10 years ago. It's a huge and VERY ambitious task to try and achieve the remaining 70% in 4 years when you take everything into consideration. 2034 is somewhat more achievable because of the natural current set up of the tendering system in London but even the last few routes to be electrified I sense will still miss target just about solely due to the infrastructure limitations aforementioned. My prediction is we will still have internal combustion engined buses of sorts hanging about for at least another 10 years.

(will remind myself to visit this post 1st January 2036!)
 

Thirteen

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I assume whoever is the next Mayor of London might end up revising the targets.

The clearance on the southbound side of the Lombard Road bridge is 3m. An ieTram is 3.3m and the BD12 is 3.2m. The only currently available EV that comes close in the Enviro 100EV, at 3.1m, but to accommodate this the bridge would need replating (I am assuming that there is more than 10cm of wriggle room!) but this would also require a change to established practice for determining height restrictions.

Alternatively something like this might be the answer (but without the roof pod!) - https://www.flickr.com/photos/166796028@N08/51168599681
It is possible for the 170 to be rerouted or even altered so it avoids Lombard Road?
 

Mikey C

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The newest diesel double deckers still operating on the TfL network are Arriva's 65-reg Enviro400s. They have a bit of an uncertain future in London, as they're slated to be replaced by BD11s this year, but theoretically could operate on another new contract up to 2030 with no issues. Not very relevant, but before Sullivan's exited the London market, their 2017 diesel Enviro400 MMCs were the newest double decker diesels on the network, and I believe the last double deck diesels ever ordered for TfL services.

On the single deck side of things though, thanks to hybrid single deckers never becoming a viable option, new diesel single deckers were being ordered consistently until 2020, so it would be much harder to completely get rid of those diesels before 2030, especially with such short notice.
Diesel single deckers like the E200MMC are far easier to move on though than hybrid double deckers, as so many operators around the country use E200 type buses, often secondhand.

Politically, removing pure diesels asap, while phasing out the hybrids more slowly is the sort of compromise that I can see appealing to a London Mayor. That way every bus in London will be "electrified", even if some still have an engine.
 

Snow1964

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Diesel single deckers like the E200MMC are far easier to move on though than hybrid double deckers, as so many operators around the country use E200 type buses, often secondhand.

Politically, removing pure diesels asap, while phasing out the hybrids more slowly is the sort of compromise that I can see appealing to a London Mayor. That way every bus in London will be "electrified", even if some still have an engine.
Yes I agree, and I could also easily see a kind of fudge where reference is made to main network etc, rather than whole network. Or maybe apply the target to all of inner London, with outer London couple of years later (what is inner and outer could be bit vague politically).

My own thoughts are that school routes might get exemption for extra year, it could delay replacing around 120-200 buses which only do couple of trips for 200 days per year. Most of the school routes are in outer zones anyway.
 

MotCO

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The clearance on the southbound side of the Lombard Road bridge is 3m. An ieTram is 3.3m and the BD12 is 3.2m. The only currently available EV that comes close in the Enviro 100EV, at 3.1m, but to accommodate this the bridge would need replating (I am assuming that there is more than 10cm of wriggle room!) but this would also require a change to established practice for determining height restrictions.

Alternatively something like this might be the answer (but without the roof pod!) - https://www.flickr.com/photos/166796028@N08/51168599681
The northern side clearance is 3.2m, high enough for a BYD single-decker. Could the southbound buses also use this, aided by traffic lights for a southbound bus lane?
 

Mark L

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The northern side clearance is 3.2m, high enough for a BYD single-decker. Could the southbound buses also use this, aided by traffic lights for a southbound bus lane?
In theory yes but I suspect it would cause traffic chaos (not that this seems to worry those in power any more!).
 

Intro298

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In theory yes but I suspect it would cause traffic chaos (not that this seems to worry those in power any more!).
https://maps.app.goo.gl/DxtcTkzX8Hi4kcwN7
Google street view link to the relevant low bridge on Lombard Road.
If you click on the link and have a look around it quickly becomes apparent that in both directions, the road has been built to travel under the lowest section of each railway arch.

A sufficient height clearance could be achieved by rerouting the road through the middle of the existing railway arches. While a road realignment could still be costly, it's unlikely that any far more expensive work would need to be done to alter the railway bridge.

If necessary, a cheaper solution could be to only realign the road in one direction and create a bus gate under the bridge.
 

37114

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There are circa 20 - 30 BYD single deckers for Metroline awaiting deliveries in Portbury docks today, saw them as part of a work visit (the one I could see the number of was BEL3426), weird looking things...
 

Thirteen

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Was on the 31 bus and it looks like they've roll quite a few of the BD11s already with just the odd older bus.

Did notice while pasting Westbourne Park Garage that some of the 23s have been retrofitted with LED blinds.
 

Snow1964

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Was on the 31 bus and it looks like they've roll quite a few of the BD11s already with just the odd older bus.

Did notice while pasting Westbourne Park Garage that some of the 23s have been retrofitted with LED blinds.
Yes 18 of the BDE class have entered service on 31, (strictly 14 of route 31 batch and four from Route 18 batch), although none have been used on 18 as that is currently operated by the non electrified Park Royal garage, which is on a short lease and due to close for redevelopment
 

CyrusWuff

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TfL have launched a consultation on changes to bus routes to serve Phase 2 of the Meridian Water development.

In summary:
  • 192: Diverted at the Town Road/Montagu Road junction to Picketts Lock Lee Valley Athletics Centre
  • 341: Cut back to Northumberland Park
  • 444: Diverted at Montagu Road to serve the development via Glover Drive. Rejoins current line of route at Cooks Ferry Roundabout
  • 476: Extended from Northumberland Park to Meridian Water Harbet Road
  • N341: New Night Bus route providing a half hourly service between Waterloo and Meridian Water Harbet Road
  • W8: Diverted at the Bounces Road/Montagu Road junction to Tottenham Hale Station via the current 192 route, with a diversion through the development after Glover Drive Angel Road Superstores
 

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