Thoughts on the Trump presidency

[SuspectUsual]

What’s the commute like from Mar A Lago to Caracas?

 

[3141]

Among many alarming aspects of this is where it leaves attempts to achieve peace in Ukraine and Gaza. Trump has just abandoned any moral position he might have had. He's taken the view that "might is right" as Putin and Netenyahu have done. It's another destabilising action in the world.

Past experience should tell the US that restoring order in a country you've invaded is somewhere on the scale between difficult and impossible.

 

[Darandio]

The RMT aren't happy about it....

RMT statement on US military attack against Venezuela

General secretary Eddie Dempsey said: “We condemn the illegal military attack carried out by the United States of America on Venezuela which resulted in President Maduro being kidnapped by US special forces.

www.rmt.org.uk

General secretary Eddie Dempsey said: “We condemn the illegal military attack carried out by the United States of America on Venezuela which resulted in President Maduro being kidnapped by US special forces.

“In accordance with international law and respect for sovereign nations, the UK Government must demand the immediate cessation of military hostilities towards Venezuela and the return of its President.

“Only by following the UN Charter can we create a framework for peace, stability and mutual respect between nations.

“We send our solidarity to the people of Venezuela and stand with them against this violent intervention.”

 

[OuterDistant]

Laughing politicians meme: "And then I said,'but even the RMT are against this!'"

 

[JamieL]

Trump has announced the US is going to run Venezuela. Perhaps we should start calling it the US Conquest of Venezuela?

President Trump says the US is going to "run" Venezuela

Rubio says US not at war with Venezuela, as Maduro set to appear in New York court on Monday

The secretary of state says the US will retain "multiple levers of leverage" if Venezuela's leaders don't "make the right decisions".

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[adc82140]

Even the US doesn't have the ability to waltz in to a country and help itself to the President in the space of a handful of hours, without some significant help on the inside.

Was this a backchannel arranged event, under quite a lot of duress ("we will come in and arrest you and bring you to the US for a trial. The alternative is that we bomb your country into submission and kill you")

 

[Annetts key]

Does this mean that any leader in the world can arrest any other leader of any other country they don't like and charge them with any old stuff?

Unless you have a nuclear deterrent that is hard to track and destroy...

"We're going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition,"

Isn't that what every bully or dictator says?

That's what it's always been about. Sovereign rights and the welfare of the people whose country they're assaulting are an irrelevence at best; never has that been more true than it is now.

Absolutely. Trump and the people behind him just want power, control, money and for their ultra right "principles" to be made real

If this were the case and if I were in Starmer's position, I'd lure the Orange Turd in with the promise of another state visit with King Charles, then arrest him as soon as he sets foot off the plane at Prestwick. Stuff him into Broadmoor (or the Tower of London; may as well give him the full royal experience eh?) and once the 'trial' concludes, toss him onto Rockall.

Have you been lurking in my head, that's what I was thinking...

Ukraine allegedly targets Putin. Trump horrified.

Trump targets Maduro...

Quite. Nice double standards...

 

[Gloster]

Even the US doesn't have the ability to waltz in to a country and help itself to the President in the space of a handful of hours, without some significant help on the inside.

Was this a backchannel arranged event, under quite a lot of duress ("we will come in and arrest you and bring you to the US for a trial. The alternative is that we bomb your country into submission and kill you")

I doubt it very much. The US has probably been collecting intelligence and preparing for such a mission for a long time. The main problem is whether Maduro is where they want him to be, but if this can be sorted out, not necessarily by having people on the ground, then the military can be ready if they get the political go-ahead. Then a quick in and out by special forces is relatively straightforward.

It can go wrong, like Operation Eagle Claw, as Carter found out. But they do seem to have, for once, adopted the KISS principle: Keep It Simple, Stupid.

 

[jfollows]

Trump has announced the US is going to run Venezuela. Perhaps we should start calling it the US Conquest of Venezuela?

Rubio says US not at war with Venezuela, as Maduro set to appear in New York court on Monday

The secretary of state says the US will retain "multiple levers of leverage" if Venezuela's leaders don't "make the right decisions".

www.bbc.co.uk

If done with the support of Delcy Eloína Rodríguez Gómez, the existing vice president and part of the former regime, it will be a disaster.
Using overwhelming military force without a proper long term objective won’t work. If they don’t involve the obvious winners of the 2024 election, then they won’t be taken seriously.
Funded by the “proceeds of oil”? I believe Iraq has a lot of oil and this didn’t end well there either.

 

[nw1]

including the UK - so much for the "special relationship"

It's not a special relationship, it's an abusive relationship.

(For point of clarification, it is the Federal US Government that I am criticising here, not the sane Americans who actually have to live under this bunch of contemptibles. The people who would benefit most from a change in regime in the USA would be Americans themselves).

 

[DarloRich]

I bet there is a deal on a Ukraine behind this: We let you take Venezuela you let us take Ukraine

Munroe doctrine and all that (and a new Soviet version!)

 

[BAFRA77]

Cuba will be next in the crosshairs...

 

[JamieL]

Cuba will be next in the crosshairs...

Then Greenland and Panama.

 

[Gloster]

What about Iran? It comes fourth on the list of countries with the largest oil reserves. It is not far behind third-placed Canada, which means they are probably thinking hard in Ottawa.

 

[Cowley]

Then Greenland and Panama.

I’d have thought Greenland before Cuba, however the potential percentage of oil revenues finding their way into Trumps bank account seems like a strong motivating factor for pushing this Venezuela thing forward.

I don’t know what would be in it for him when it comes to Cuba?

 

[ainsworth74]

Cuba will be next in the crosshairs...

Possibly but it is almost certain to precipitate an energy/economic crisis in Cuba. Cuba relies on Venezuela for a lot of its crude oil and at a discounted rate as well. They were already struggling prior to the US invasion and take-over (whatever form that takes):

Venezuelan oil flows to Cuba have stopped for now and cargoes to other destinations are grinding to a halt, sources tell Argus, as US pressure on Caracas continues to build.

With the exception of crude cargoes chartered by Chevron and a few other foreign oil majors working with state oil firm PdV, very little crude tanker traffic is moving out of Venezuela's main ports, according to industry and government sources. The US seizure of a crude cargo earlier this month and US threats to strike targets in the country are leading some shippers to divert ships heading to pick up Venezuelan crude. Operational problems caused by a cyberattack on PdV systems over the weekend are also impeding cargo loadings.

[...]

Of those seven cargoes that have left Venezuela so far this month, four are on their way to the US, one is destined to Malaysia, another to China and another to Cuba, according to Vortexa, although the final destinations may change.

[...]

Cuba, which relies heavily on Venezuela for crude, has been the first to feel the pinch in constrained flows. Cuban premier Miguel Diaz-Canel said this week the disruption of crude supplies from Venezuela — including from the ship seized by the US earlier this month that appeared to be en route to Cuba — is creating a dire economic situation on the island.

Venezuela crude flows slow, Cuba feels sting | Latest Market News

Venezuelan oil flows to Cuba have stopped for now and cargoes to other destinations are grinding to a halt, sources tell <i>Argus,</i> as US pressure on Caracas continues to build.

www.argusmedia.com

Seems a safe assumption that Cuba is not going to be getting a drop of Venezuelan crude oil and will have to buy at market rates on the global oil markets. Anyone ready for the Cuban state to collapse? Perhaps another Haiti in the making?

 

[brad465]

What about Iran? It comes fourth on the list of countries with the largest oil reserves. It is not far behind third-placed Canada, which means they are probably thinking hard in Ottawa.

Iran is where my money would be for who's next up for US-led regime change: there is existing unrest against the current regime, and the US has already dropped bombs there in the last year. Throw in that Israel will actively encourage and help the US in overthrowing the Iranian regime and it looks irresistible to Trump and his acolytes.

 

[jon0844]

At a time when crude oil prices are at their lowest for many, many years (since 2021), with the price likely to continue falling as consumption levels off or starts to fall as other energy sources gradually make up more of the energy market.

It's the heavy oil that the US badly needs, in case there was ever any doubt that everything leading up to this was simply about the oil.

 

[ainsworth74]

Iran is where my money would be for who's next up for US-led regime change: there is existing unrest against the current regime, and the US has already dropped bombs there in the last year. Throw in that Israel will actively encourage and help the US in overthrowing the Iranian regime and it looks irresistible to Trump and his acolytes.

That's where my money would be as well. Trump is already on record of saying he'd intervene:

US President Donald Trump has warned Iran's authorities against killing peaceful protesters, saying Washington "will come to their rescue".

In a brief post on social media, he wrote: "We are locked and loaded and ready to go," but gave no further details.

A senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei responded by saying Trump should "be careful" if he intervened, warning of potential chaos across the Middle East.

At least eight people are reported to have been killed in Iran after almost a week of mass protests sparked by worsening economic conditions.

In Friday's post on Truth Social, Trump wrote: "If Iran shots [sic] and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue."

In his post, the US president did not specify what action Washington could take against the Iranian authorities.

Iran: Trump warns US will intervene if Iran kills protesters

The US president says "we will come to their rescue" after days of demonstrations and clashes.

www.bbc.com

With a new found taste for regime change I absolutely can believe he (and more accurately the people behind the curtain pulling his strings) would be up for deposing the Iranian leadership given the opportunity.

 

[generalnerd]

The RMT aren't happy about it....

RMT statement on US military attack against Venezuela

General secretary Eddie Dempsey said: “We condemn the illegal military attack carried out by the United States of America on Venezuela which resulted in President Maduro being kidnapped by US special forces.

www.rmt.org.uk

Why are they getting involved?

 

[Bayum]

Interesting that VP Delcy Rodriquez whom Trump has sworn in is standing firm that Maduro is still president.

 

[AlterEgo]

Why are they getting involved?

We all need a hobby.

 

[nw1]

Why are they getting involved?

Perhaps it's what the RMT actually think. They have as much right to voice their opinion as anyone else.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Jan 2026 ==

Among many alarming aspects of this is where it leaves attempts to achieve peace in Ukraine and Gaza. Trump has just abandoned any moral position he might have had. He's taken the view that "might is right" as Putin and Netenyahu have done. It's another destabilising action in the world.

Putin, Trump and Netanyahu. The unholy trinity. Lovers of war, all three of them.

 

[brad465]

Perhaps it's what the RMT actually think. They have as much right to voice their opinion as anyone else.

I wouldn't have a problem if Dempsey and/or other RMT figures voiced an opinion like this in their own capacity. But doing so through the RMT channels speaking as the union, given this union has absolutely nothing to do with any government capacity or a diplomatic capacity doesn't make sense to me, despite the fact by and large I agree with the substance of their statement. Besides, I doubt the union did a ballot in the short timeframe to gauge if the membership as a whole holds that point of view.

 

[nw1]

I wouldn't have a problem if Dempsey and/or other RMT figures voiced an opinion like this in their own capacity. But doing so through the RMT channels speaking as the union, given this union has absolutely nothing to do with any government capacity or a diplomatic capacity doesn't make sense to me, despite the fact by and large I agree with the substance of their statement. Besides, I doubt the union did a ballot in the short timeframe to gauge if the membership as a whole holds that point of view.

To be fair, when a given union proclaims a particular point of view, I assume this is the view of the leadership, not necessarily all or even a majority of members.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Jan 2026 ==

It's the heavy oil that the US badly needs, in case there was ever any doubt that everything leading up to this was simply about the oil.

It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. Republican US governments have had plenty of form in the past on this.

 

[Tester]

To be fair, when a given union proclaims a particular point of view, I assume this is the view of the leadership, not necessarily all or even a majority of members.

In which case, why is it of any more note than, say, your or my view?

 

[najaB]

Interesting that VP Delcy Rodriquez whom Trump has sworn in is standing firm that Maduro is still president.

Say what now?

 

[AndrewE]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...n-for-the-us-attack-on-venezuela-trump-maduro (Is there any legal justification for the US attack on Venezuela?) includes

What precedent could this set globally?​

If the US faces no consequences for the invasion of Venezuela, experts believe it could embolden other countries to carry out operations which may contravene international law.

“The most obvious consequence is that China will take the opportunity to invade Taiwan,” Robertson said. “This is the most appropriate time for it to do so, bolstered by the precedent of Trump’s invasion of Venezuela and of course his appeasement of Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. In fact, I would say that Trump’s invasion of Venezuela is the crime of aggression, the same crime Putin has committed by invading Ukraine.”

and there is another quote somewhere in which trump openly states that Cuba is in his sights too
p.s. it's here https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/03/putin-russia-us-foreign-policy-venezuela (The ‘Putinization’ of US foreign policy has arrived in Venezuela)

What unfolded overnight in Venezuela will cause immediate anxiety to governments like Iran and Denmark, against which Trump has expressed enthusiasm for taking radical action.

In recent days, Trump has said the US would come to the defence of Iranian anti-government protesters, and his officials have kept up a drumbeat of threats to take control of Greenland by any necessary means. Last month, the Danish Defence Intelligence Service labelled the US as a security risk, a declaration that would have been unthinkable just a short time ago for a Nato ally.

In his press conference on Saturday, Trump added Cuba to the list of countries in his sights, suggesting it was “very similar” to Venezuela “in the sense that we want to help the people in Cuba”. His secretary of state, Marco Rubio, added that Havana should feel “concerned” in the wake of the events in Venezuela.

It accelerates the slide from a mostly rules-based world to one of competing spheres of influence, to be determined by armed might and the readiness to use it. One US commentator, David Rothkopf, called it the “Putinization of US foreign policy”.

 

[Mogster]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...n-for-the-us-attack-on-venezuela-trump-maduro (Is there any legal justification for the US attack on Venezuela?) includes

and there is another quote somewhere in which trump openly states that Cuba is in his sights too
p.s. it's here https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/03/putin-russia-us-foreign-policy-venezuela (The ‘Putinization’ of US foreign policy has arrived in Venezuela)

Denmark is a founder member of NATO. Greenland is a semi autonomous part of the Kingdom of Denmark in the same way Scotland is a country within the UK with semi autonomy. I don’t thing Denmark and Greenland have much to worry about.

Cuba and Iran however… It also demonstrates to countries in S America that “support” from Russia and China is completely worthless.

 

[Cowley]

Say what now?

Hm. Definitely a little bit of wires crossed there I think…