Is there anybody on here in the know to tell us how much conversion to BEMU, conversion to 2+2 seating and internal refresh would cost per unit? I assume adding an engine, alternator, fuel pump and fuel tank costs more than batteries and alternator to cover conversion and a little more they would lose less capital cost than they would get in scrappage now.
A conversion could cost anything from £0.3m to £1.5m per unit depending on range you need, obviously not being originally designed for batteries, need to spread the racks around in whatever space is available, and also spread the extra weight.
There would need to be development costs and software modifications which would cost a lot to write and test, and certify. But this is more a one off lump sum (the more units that are converted the lower the average cost per unit). Time might be more a factor for this as could take many months (even year or two) for first unit to be modified and proven.
Refurbishment is needed anyway, so if any operator wants them for next 20 years, going to have to do it anyway. A full midlife refurbishment with new seats is probably going to cost at least £1.5m per unit (although will vary lot depending on work done and the quality of finishes) and could easily be nearer £3m per unit if lots of enhancements were added too. A basic light refresh would be much cheaper.
It might sound a lot of money, but ordering new units would probably be in region of £12-14m for a 4car electric unit nowadays. (Having to base it on European orders price because hasn't been any non high speed UK train orders for over 6 years).
Buying 37 x 4car units brand new is going to cost in region of £400m, so by comparison spending say £100m to enhance 17-18 year old units and using them for another 20-23 years is much better value economically.