ORR estimates of station usage 2024/25

[The exile]

you do have to be a bit careful here, as there will be some supposedly travelling from liverpool central to edinburgh as well, (there are to the 2 glasgow stations), so the numbers aren't perfect for station to station where stations are grouped together like liverpools are, (maybe edinburgh's are too) in the ticket database.

Oh indeed, pinches of salt are always advisable!

 

[70014IronDuke]

For those that may be interested, the ORR released the latest Origin Destination Matrix (ODM) on Wednesday. The ODM shows an estimation of how many passengers travelled between individual station pairs on the GB mainline network during the 2024/25 period.
I've added the latest dataset to the usual section of the RailwayData website, with other websites likely to have already added or will add the data in due course.

Interesting, some of these. But Hellifield looks extremely strange.

Top flow, Leeds - 5,668.
2nd - Skipton - 3,988
OK
3rd - Glasgow C - 2066 - Really?
4th - Settle - 1,674 - no probs.
5th - Glsgow QS - 1,322 - Really?

Can 3,388 be flowing twixt tiny Hellifield and mighty Glasgow stations?

Methinks this must be a split ticket anomaly. And, presumably, splitting at Hellifield would allow, eg Sheffield to Glasgow via both Appleby and Lancaster?
This would also account for a chunk of the extra Leeds traffic (up 2,000 - +54%).

 

[yorksrob]

Interesting, some of these. But Hellifield looks extremely strange.

Top flow, Leeds - 5,668.
2nd - Skipton - 3,988
OK
3rd - Glasgow C - 2066 - Really?
4th - Settle - 1,674 - no probs.
5th - Glsgow QS - 1,322 - Really?

Can 3,388 be flowing twixt tiny Hellifield and mighty Glasgow stations?

Methinks this must be a split ticket anomaly. And, presumably, splitting at Hellifield would allow, eg Sheffield to Glasgow via both Appleby and Lancaster?
This would also account for a chunk of the extra Leeds traffic (up 2,000 - +54%).

Even if it is, is it germane to highlight it on a public forum ?

 

[splashoutradio]

Interesting, some of these. But Hellifield looks extremely strange.

Top flow, Leeds - 5,668.
2nd - Skipton - 3,988
OK
3rd - Glasgow C - 2066 - Really?
4th - Settle - 1,674 - no probs.
5th - Glsgow QS - 1,322 - Really?

Can 3,388 be flowing twixt tiny Hellifield and mighty Glasgow stations?

Methinks this must be a split ticket anomaly. And, presumably, splitting at Hellifield would allow, eg Sheffield to Glasgow via both Appleby and Lancaster?
This would also account for a chunk of the extra Leeds traffic (up 2,000 - +54%).

Looking at the stats for Hellifield, there seems to have been an all-round increase in passengers travelling to/from Scotland this year - Glasgow playing a big part in this, but not solely.
2018/19: 257
2019/20: 1,661
2020/21: 293
2021/22: 1,656
2022/23: 879
2023/24: 1,149
2024/25: 4,552
Source: https://www.railwaydata.co.uk/odm/g...llifield [2656]&dest=R-Scotland&ord=&srt=2425

 

[Magdalia]

Interesting, some of these. But Hellifield looks extremely strange.

Even if it is, is it germane to highlight it on a public forum ?

Having had experience of data collection and dissemination, I do wonder about the power of some open source data cleansing here. I was trained on the mantra of "if it is interesting it is wrong", but this is such a big dataset that I doubt that ORR have the resources to identify and check every interesting number.

Two that I have already noticed:

Kings Lynn: the five most popular destinations are Kings Cross, Cambridge, Downham Market, Ely, Watlington, but sixth is, er, Dartford?
(Dartford is also highly ranked at Watlington and Downham Market)

Pulborough: the four most popular destinations are Victoria, Horsham, Gatwick, Chichester, but fifth is, er, Hatfield?
(Hatfield is also highly ranked at Billingshurst and Amberley-I picked these up from looking at Hatfield)

I suspect that there are some coding errors here that have not been cleaned out.

3rd - Glasgow C - 2066 - Really?
4th - Settle - 1,674 - no probs.
5th - Glsgow QS - 1,322 - Really?

Here the Central/Queen Street numbers look like a possible 60/40 split of Glasgow BR tickets?

 

[Djgr]

Well, if I’ve read those figures correctly the current flow averages out at 99 per day (ie 1 carriage and a bit).

Well, using the same approach, those figures show the current Manchester Piccadilly to Edinburgh flow is less than 2 carriages a day!

 

[weeklycommuter]

The number of entries and exits at Woolston Station in Southampton nearly doubled from 103,844 April 2023 to March 2024 to 180,344 April 2024 to March 2025. This is undoubtedly the result of the new GTR Southern West Coastway Timetable that started in June 2024 making Woolston a stop on the half hourly Brighton-Southampton Monday to Saturday service, increasing the number of trains calling at this station Monday to Saturday from one a hour each way (the all stops SWR Portsmouth and Southsea to Southampton Central train) to three an hour each way.

 

[70014IronDuke]

Even if it is, is it germane to highlight it on a public forum ?

You got me there. I had to look up "germaine" (as you originally spelled it) to ascertain meaning.

I then learned "germane" means "relevant".

I would say it is 100% relevant, certainly in this thread.

If you mean, is it "sensible" or "appropriate" to do so publicly, I didn't think talking about such splits was out of bounds at all. (As opposed to genuine cheap-fare glitches, which are likely to be changed by eagle-eyed employees of TOCs who presumably read posts in here.)

 

[yorksrob]

You got me there. I had to look up "germaine" (as you originally spelled it) to ascertain meaning.

I then learned "germane" means "relevant".

I would say it is 100% relevant, certainly in this thread.

If you mean, is it "sensible" or "appropriate" to do so publicly, I didn't think talking about such splits was out of bounds at all. (As opposed to genuine cheap-fare glitches, which are likely to be changed by eagle-eyed employees of TOCs who presumably read posts in here.)

I should learn to spell

I just worry that someone in power will try and eliminate the split.

 

[Stephen42]

Having had experience of data collection and dissemination, I do wonder about the power of some open source data cleansing here. I was trained on the mantra of "if it is interesting it is wrong", but this is such a big dataset that I doubt that ORR have the resources to identify and check every interesting number.

Two that I have already noticed:

Kings Lynn: the five most popular destinations are Kings Cross, Cambridge, Downham Market, Ely, Watlington, but sixth is, er, Dartford?
(Dartford is also highly ranked at Watlington and Downham Market)

Pulborough: the four most popular destinations are Victoria, Horsham, Gatwick, Chichester, but fifth is, er, Hatfield?
(Hatfield is also highly ranked at Billingshurst and Amberley-I picked these up from looking at Hatfield)

I suspect that there are some coding errors here that have not been cleaned out.


Here the Central/Queen Street numbers look like a possible 60/40 split of Glasgow BR tickets?

I don't think this is data coding errors in the traditional sense. Many are likely instances of tickets bought for different journeys than the origin/destination pair. While the ODM has some adjustment for split ticketing, the accompanying notes don't give any indication how comprehensive it is or exactly how it's done. This was first added in the 2023/24 numbers, at Sevenoaks the year before New Cross was in 4th place but then went down 75% the next year which adjusted for split ticketing. (Sevenoaks has 1 direct train a day to New Cross and the numbers were mainly season ticket holders splitting particularly for travelcards. This has been well publicised elsewhere)

The Kings Lynn to Dartford example is likely buying a ticket for a longer distance for a similar (or lower) price than the journey being made. Tickets to the other side of the London area are often priced near the London terminals ticket. The benefit of the longer distance ticket is they include cross London travel and sometimes different restrictions. There are plenty of these examples from Kings Lynn, but people tell each other a particular station or sometimes at a ticket office so the numbers clump together. The problem with longer distance tickets across London is for many it's hard to know where the passenger actually went.

For Hellifield do 16% of passenger journeys from that station go to Glasgow? It seems unlikely even before getting into the Glasgow BR split.

 

[70014IronDuke]

I should learn to spell

Well, most of us could improve on that point

I just worry that someone in power will try and eliminate the split.

Do such people exist? I thought split tickets was an open secret. I certainly would not wish to harm S&C traffic numbers.

For Hellifield do 16% of passenger journeys from that station go to Glasgow? It seems unlikely even before getting into the Glasgow BR split.

Before getting into the Glasgow split, I doubt 1.6%, ie 16 in 1,000, boarding at Hellifield are bound for Glasgow. Or even north of Carlisle.

 

[yorksrob]

Well, most of us could improve on that point

Do such people exist? I thought split tickets was an open secret. I certainly would not wish to harm S&C traffic numbers.

Could be me being paranoid.

 

[paddy1]

Another intriguing one is the Nuneaton-Stockport (two way) flow. Minimal up until 2022/23, then jumps to nearly 47k per year in 2023/24 and same again for 2024/25. Same happens with the Nuneaton-Manchester flow. Minimal up until 2022/23 then increases to over 21k in 2023/24 then to over 31k in 2024/25. I expect that some of this will be down to Avanti Manchester services now calling hourly at Nuneaton, but it seems illogical that the Stockport flow would be substantially in excess of that for Manchester, when you would expect the opposite to be the case?

 

[Magdalia]

The Kings Lynn to Dartford example is likely buying a ticket for a longer distance for a similar (or lower) price than the journey being made. Tickets to the other side of the London area are often priced near the London terminals ticket. The benefit of the longer distance ticket is they include cross London travel and sometimes different restrictions. There are plenty of these examples from Kings Lynn, but people tell each other a particular station or sometimes at a ticket office so the numbers clump together. The problem with longer distance tickets across London is for many it's hard to know where the passenger actually went.

Thanks for this helpful explanation.

 

[g22]

Another intriguing one is the Nuneaton-Stockport (two way) flow. Minimal up until 2022/23, then jumps to nearly 47k per year in 2023/24 and same again for 2024/25. Same happens with the Nuneaton-Manchester flow. Minimal up until 2022/23 then increases to over 21k in 2023/24 then to over 31k in 2024/25. I expect that some of this will be down to Avanti Manchester services now calling hourly at Nuneaton, but it seems illogical that the Stockport flow would be substantially in excess of that for Manchester, when you would expect the opposite to be the case?

There were no Nuneaton to Manchester Standard Advances made available. Nuneaton to Stockport Standard Advances were available however in both directions until earlier this year but last time I checked the southbound ones appeared to have been removed from availabilty. The split ticket adjustment does not appear to correct this.

 

[paddy1]

There were no Nuneaton to Manchester Standard Advances made available. Nuneaton to Stockport Standard Advances were available however in both directions until earlier this year but last time I checked the southbound ones appeared to have been removed from availabilty. The split ticket adjustment does not appear to correct this.

Thanks. That makes sense in terms of accounting for these erroneous flow discrepancies.

 

[FenMan]

Having had experience of data collection and dissemination, I do wonder about the power of some open source data cleansing here. I was trained on the mantra of "if it is interesting it is wrong", but this is such a big dataset that I doubt that ORR have the resources to identify and check every interesting number.

Two that I have already noticed:

Kings Lynn: the five most popular destinations are Kings Cross, Cambridge, Downham Market, Ely, Watlington, but sixth is, er, Dartford?
(Dartford is also highly ranked at Watlington and Downham Market)

The popularity of Dartford tickets is down to the power of Facebook, so is well known in West Norfolk and has been for many years.

 

[barbette165]

The Interchanges data shows 0 for both Dorridge and Hatton. On the hours when the Stratford to/from Leamington shuttle doesn't run a change between the WMR Stratford to Birmingham (and beyond) and the Chiltern service to/from London is offered in the journey planners, and indeed it is common to see passengers making this interchange. Less common, but still offered by the journey planner, is to take the Birmingham-Leamington shuttle to Hatton and to change onto the Leamington-Stratford shuttle. Train managers do announce "Change here for Stratford-upon-Avon" when the train arrives in Hatton. (The Dorridge change works in both directions, the Hatton change only works in the southbound direction).

(I also do another interchange at Dorridge, although I'm not sure how it could be detected. I often take the XX:45 Chiltern service out of Birmingham Moor Street to Marylebone rather than wait 10 minutes for the XX:55 WMR service to Stratford. Changing at Dorridge gives me 20 minutes to pop into the Sainsbury's near the station before the Stratford service departs (it waits about 4 minutes at Dorridge so that it doesn't arrive at Hatton North Junction before the northbound service has cleared the single track section from Bearley)).

 

[zwk500]

The Interchanges data shows 0 for both Dorridge and Hatton. On the hours when the Stratford to/from Leamington shuttle doesn't run a change between the WMR Stratford to Birmingham (and beyond) and the Chiltern service to/from London is offered in the journey planners, and indeed it is common to see passengers making this interchange. Less common, but still offered by the journey planner, is to take the Birmingham-Leamington shuttle to Hatton and to change onto the Leamington-Stratford shuttle. Train managers do announce "Change here for Stratford-upon-Avon" when the train arrives in Hatton. (The Dorridge change works in both directions, the Hatton change only works in the southbound direction).

Some of the decision about how to allocate certain journeys (particularly non-obvious ones) will always be difficult to make. There's usually a methodology note published alongside the ODM.

(I also do another interchange at Dorridge, although I'm not sure how it could be detected. I often take the XX:45 Chiltern service out of Birmingham Moor Street to Marylebone rather than wait 10 minutes for the XX:55 WMR service to Stratford. Changing at Dorridge gives me 20 minutes to pop into the Sainsbury's near the station before the Stratford service departs (it waits about 4 minutes at Dorridge so that it doesn't arrive at Hatton North Junction before the northbound service has cleared the single track section from Bearley)).

The gateline data is normally used so potentially could pick it up however unless it's statistically significant such an adjustment is unlikely to be made for an individual journey at an individual station.

 

[MerlinRail 804]

Is Sudbury & Harrow Rd still the least used in London? I’m guessing considering the lack of fuss that it’s a yes