William3000
Member
Worth noting that the population of Greater Cambridge is currently 312,000 and forecast to increase to 500,000 in the next 20 years. And Cambridge station is getting on for double the number of passengers of Oxford despite fewer long distance services - 11 million versus 6.7 million. And Cambridge South is due to open next year next to the Cambridge Biomedical Campus which is forecast to grow to 40,000 plus jobs alone within 15 years!That's not correct. As pointed out above, Reading is nearer to Birmingham than Cambridge. Also Oxford (67 miles via Solihull or 72 miles via Coventry) is nearer than Bedford (83 miles).
The populations are very different.
Reading+Oxford 375k
Cambridge+Bedford 250k
Furthermore, comparing entrances and exits:
Reading+Oxford 20.3m
Cambridge+Bedford 13.3m
Bedford-Birmingham is a journey that can already be made now. We can see the numbers:
Bedford-Birmingham New Street 2961
Bedford-Birmingham International 243
Bedford-Coventry 786
Total 3990
And even looking at the pre-pandemic numbers we have
Bedford-Birmingham New Street 5431
Bedford-Birmingham International 712
Bedford-Coventry 1865
Total 8008
Your calculation relies on Bedford contributing more than 70k journeys, clearly that's absurd.
I think we can disregard the contribution from Bedford here. When East West Rail opens the new destinations for 70k journeys to and from Bedford will be Oxford and Cambridge, not Coventry and Birmingham.
I take your point with regard to Cambridge-Coventry/Birmingham International. Using the Reading comparison, adding Coventry and Birmingham International to my Cambridge-Birmingham New Street 25k estimate would get the figure up to about 35k.
It is still a small number.
== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
Cambridge is about 105 miles by rail to Bedford without EWR - with EWR it reduces to about 35 milesThat's why I also quoted the pre-pandemic numbers. EWR did the same in the non-statutory consultation.
However it is measured, Reading is nearer than Cambridge and Oxford is nearer than Bedford. 65 and 57 are not similar, one is 14% further than the other.
They are enough to say that a direct journey won't send the numbers leaping from 8k to 70k.
What matters is that employees and businesses around Oxford and Cambridge have access to both universities.
This especially apples to couples, EWR will mean that they don't both have to work in one or the other, and don't have to live in either.
== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
Cambridge is about 105 miles by rail to Bedford without EWR - with EWR it reduces to about 35 milesThat's why I also quoted the pre-pandemic numbers. EWR did the same in the non-statutory consultation.
However it is measured, Reading is nearer than Cambridge and Oxford is nearer than Bedford. 65 and 57 are not similar, one is 14% further than the other.
They are enough to say that a direct journey won't send the numbers leaping from 8k to 70k.
What matters is that employees and businesses around Oxford and Cambridge have access to both universities.
This especially apples to couples, EWR will mean that they don't both have to work in one or the other, and don't have to live in either.
but the crow flying between say St Neots and Bedford IS relevant - it’s about the same journey time by rail from St Neots to York as it is from St Neots to Bedford. That’s because despite them being just 12 miles apart - one has to change at London St Pancras International to do the journey - which obvious virtually nobody does"As the crow flies" is fine for crows.
I judge the proximity of places by road and rail by the journey time and the cost for the journey.
However fast EWR trains are, I don't think the tickets will be cheap.
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