Great Northern - Northern City Line to TFL?

[bramling]

The GN inners run pretty well now, but sometimes lose time that can impact other services (but more often than not, it's another service being late getting caught behind a stopper). It will be interesting to see how everything fits together with the new timetable, with 2C/L/R services being retimed to reduce conflict at WGC when Sevenoaks services run (important if Sevenoaks services will run six days a week from 2027).

I’ve been playing the new timetable on the signal simulator, on balance I’d say it doesn’t offer any real performance improvement. It’s only really the down direction that’s changed anyway.

Is the all-day Sevenoaks service now being officially talked about?

One of the issues with the inners, especially the Welwyn route, is that people simply don’t really want to go to Moorgate as a destination, especially off-peak. That’s been the case right since the inners were moved to Moorgate in the 1970s. There is a level of demand to Highbury, but only because it offers convenient interchange especially to the Victoria Line.

Changing the seat covers and painting the stations orange isn’t going to change that. For a lot of people the Piccadilly Line is more useful because it takes them where they actually want to go, whilst on the Welwyn route the three busiest stations have faster services which people prefer to use, and can change at Finsbury Park onto LU to reach their ultimate destination.

I’ve no doubt we would have 4tph off-peak now had it now been for Covid, and even then it would probably have come back by now if it wasn’t for the whole issue of driver numbers. The inners were cut because they could sustain the decrease, which in general has proven correct - with 2tph the inners still have space for the most part (I realise there are times when this isn’t the case). It wouldn’t have been the best outcome to have 717s running up and down carrying fresh air (as they did when 4tph *did* run), whilst heavily used outers got thinned out.

 

[87015]

TFL will have the same problem of driver shortage, for starters.

How do you know which levels of establishment calculators are used between TfL and GTR for the same number of diagrams? Not sure why all of your points are about LU which clearly wont be running it. I dont recall huge cost and disruption when WA was split for Chingford depot to be cut out of a wider route card and multiple depots covering teh now LO routes, is there a thread?

 

[jon0844]

Is the all-day Sevenoaks service now being officially talked about?

December 2027 at the earliest from what I've heard, but it's definitely being talked about (to clarify; I refer to drivers I know who have been told it's a target to implement, not random people!).

It would definitely help those who were hoping to get trains through the core (WGC, Hatfield etc) but it does bring the potential for disruption when services get delayed - which will then cause havoc again with the turnarounds and impact to other services at WGC.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Dec 2025 ==

One of the issues with the inners, especially the Welwyn route, is that people simply don’t really want to go to Moorgate as a destination, especially off-peak. That’s been the case right since the inners were moved to Moorgate in the 1970s. There is a level of demand to Highbury, but only because it offers convenient interchange especially to the Victoria Line.

A lot of people don't know they can get on the Elizabeth Line at Moorgate, but certainly you're right about off-peak and weekends where demand to Moorgate is pretty low. Weekends have people going to Shoreditch, and some people go for a short walk to Liverpool Street (far quicker than going to King's Cross and taking the tube as I'm sure a lot of people do, especially with journey planners telling them to).

If there was the capacity, I think people at the smaller stations wanting the higher service frequency would actually want every other train to actually go to King's Cross than Moorgate - but that's really not doable.

 

[bramling]

How do you know which levels of establishment calculators are used between TfL and GTR for the same number of diagrams?

It doesn’t really make much difference. If TFL were to take over tomorrow, they’d have the same number of drivers available to them as do GTR/DFT today. If anything it would be less efficient because of the need to split up the depots.

Not sure why all of your points are about LU which clearly wont be running it.

It’s very relevant, because it shows that if TFL can’t get these things right on one area, why should we trust them to do so elsewhere? Issues like Central Line fleet have been running on for *decades*, and there’s been plenty of more recent shambles on TFL, not least the fit for the future stations programme. As a user of LU, I’d prefer TFL to focus their energy on getting LU running reliably, whereas in reality it has declined over the last 10-20 years. In other areas of life, if something isn’t working very well then we generally don’t look for *more* of whatever that poorly performing thing is.

I dont recall huge cost and disruption when WA was split for Chingford depot to be cut out of a wider route card and multiple depots covering teh now LO routes

This isn’t really a straight comparison, as for starters it was pre-Covid. Had TFL been looking to take over GN inners in 2019 they’d have taken it over with the 4tph off-peak service already running and the resources (mostly) in place. It’s a different ball game now.

The other factor is Welwyn-Sevenoaks. If it seems to be the case that there’s now a plan for this to run through the day (the infrastructure is essentially already there for it), it’s unlikely there would be a need for 4tph Moorgate-Welwyn. It seems most users on the Welwyn route would prefer the Sevenoaks service as opposed to more Moorgate trains, and I don’t think there’s any point in having both as the reliability disbenefits would outweigh any usefulness. Sevenoaks trains are also better as they offer more capacity, not being constrained to 6 cars.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

It doesn’t really make much difference. If TFL were to take over tomorrow, they’d have the same number of drivers available to them as do GTR/DFT today. If anything it would be less efficient because of the need to split up the depots.




It’s very relevant, because it shows that if TFL can’t get these things right on one area, why should we trust them to do so elsewhere? Issues like Central Line fleet have been running on for *decades*, and there’s been plenty of more recent shambles on TFL, not least the fit for the future stations programme. As a user of LU, I’d prefer TFL to focus their energy on getting LU running reliably, whereas in reality it has declined over the last 10-20 years. In other areas of life, if something isn’t working very well then we generally don’t look for *more* of whatever that poorly performing thing is.



This isn’t really a straight comparison, as for starters it was pre-Covid. Had TFL been looking to take over GN inners in 2019 they’d have taken it over with the 4tph off-peak service already running and the resources (mostly) in place. It’s a different ball game now.

The other factor is Welwyn-Sevenoaks. If it seems to be the case that there’s now a plan for this to run through the day (the infrastructure is essentially already there for it), it’s unlikely there would be a need for 4tph Moorgate-Welwyn. It seems most users on the Welwyn route would prefer the Sevenoaks service as opposed to more Moorgate trains, and I don’t think there’s any point in having both as the reliability disbenefits would outweigh any usefulness. Sevenoaks trains are also better as they offer more capacity, not being constrained to 6 cars.

Would the Welwyn branch become straight Thameslink then with the Hertford branch becoming self contained from Moorgate?

 

[jon0844]

Would the Welwyn branch become straight Thameslink then with the Hertford branch becoming self contained from Moorgate?

A lot of the inners run on a V pattern (WGC to Moorgate, Moorgate to Stevenage etc) so splitting it off would introduce other logistical issues (given the depot at WGC) but I suppose running Moorgate to Stevenage via Hertford would be theoretically possible, if the ECML got an alternative - like a train from WGC through the core, like the Sevenoaks. But Sevenoaks isn't going to run 4tph at peak times and there are other issues (like when there's a problem south of the river, in the core etc) so that's one for a speculation thread.

You could potentially run peak services to Moorgate for commuters working in the city (they would NOT be happy to lose Moorgate trains or have to change at Finsbury Park), but I do think there are still people who go all the way to connect with various Underground lines, and I think a better option would be as suggested above - keep the frequency from WGC to MOG the same, but interwork more Sevenoaks services.

I don't know how many extra units would be needed to run Sevenoaks services all day to WGC, but I believe there are lots of drivers based at Ashford not doing much given the 2Cxx services never ran through the core.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

A lot of the inners run on a V pattern (WGC to Moorgate, Moorgate to Stevenage etc) so splitting it off would introduce other logistical issues (given the depot at WGC) but I suppose running Moorgate to Stevenage via Hertford would be theoretically possible, if the ECML got an alternative - like a train from WGC through the core, like the Sevenoaks. But Sevenoaks isn't going to run 4tph at peak times and there are other issues (like when there's a problem south of the river, in the core etc) so that's one for a speculation thread.

You could potentially run peak services to Moorgate for commuters working in the city (they would NOT be happy to lose Moorgate trains or have to change at Finsbury Park), but I do think there are still people who go all the way to connect with various Underground lines, and I think a better option would be as suggested above - keep the frequency from WGC to MOG the same, but interwork more Sevenoaks services.

I don't know how many extra units would be needed to run Sevenoaks services all day to WGC, but I believe there are lots of drivers based at Ashford not doing much given the 2Cxx services never ran through the core.

I wonder if it would have been better to have completed the Northern Heights scheme and kept the Great Northern Electrics at Kings Cross

 

[Mattplans]

LU, Tramlink and the DLR all have issues.

All of these had their pre covid timetables restored pretty quickly. GTR haven’t even fulfilled the service promised in the TL prog and the Orpington-Lutons haven’t returned off-peak.

The management of Lu and DLR saw fit to restore their precovid timetable asap and so they experience closer to the precovid patronage.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Dec 2025 ==

important if Sevenoaks services will run six days a week from 2027

Why would they be..

 

[cle]

One of the issues with the inners, especially the Welwyn route, is that people simply don’t really want to go to Moorgate as a destination, especially off-peak. That’s been the case right since the inners were moved to Moorgate in the 1970s. There is a level of demand to Highbury, but only because it offers convenient interchange especially to the Victoria Line.

I think this has changed - with Crossrail at Moorgate, it has become busy all week and off peak. And this route offers H&I as mentioned - not just the incredibly easy Vic line change, but also high frequency on LO west, east (especially to Stratford) - and south-east on the ELL. It's incredibly well connected. Old Street is a leisure destination, but also has many jobs - and you can grab the Northern line there too.

A simple, high frequency service would see a lot of growth.

I would say:
4tph WGC (augmented by Sevenoaks to TL / remove calls from Potters Bar on the outers)
6tph Loop - 2 Gordon Hill, inc 2 to Hertford North + 2 to Stevenage

That would give 10tph all day - a lot at the outer stations, but a metro service for the inners and 10tph in the core tube. London services are far more used off peak than dormitory ones.

 

[Failed Unit]

December 2027 at the earliest from what I've heard, but it's definitely being talked about (to clarify; I refer to drivers I know who have been told it's a target to implement, not random people!).

It would definitely help those who were hoping to get trains through the core (WGC, Hatfield etc) but it does bring the potential for disruption when services get delayed - which will then cause havoc again with the turnarounds and impact to other services at WGC.

If the Moorgates ran as well, I don’t think problems in the core would cause many issues. Just cut back at Blackfrairs. Like they do now in the peak if the core is running at reduced capacity.

If the service did run - I assume that Moorgate would remain 2 tPh. Which would be fine. Much better then Stevenage to Peterborough gets when the core has a wobble

 

[bramling]

A lot of the inners run on a V pattern (WGC to Moorgate, Moorgate to Stevenage etc) so splitting it off would introduce other logistical issues (given the depot at WGC) but I suppose running Moorgate to Stevenage via Hertford would be theoretically possible, if the ECML got an alternative - like a train from WGC through the core, like the Sevenoaks. But Sevenoaks isn't going to run 4tph at peak times and there are other issues (like when there's a problem south of the river, in the core etc) so that's one for a speculation thread.

You could potentially run peak services to Moorgate for commuters working in the city (they would NOT be happy to lose Moorgate trains or have to change at Finsbury Park), but I do think there are still people who go all the way to connect with various Underground lines, and I think a better option would be as suggested above - keep the frequency from WGC to MOG the same, but interwork more Sevenoaks services.

I don't know how many extra units would be needed to run Sevenoaks services all day to WGC, but I believe there are lots of drivers based at Ashford not doing much given the 2Cxx services never ran through the core.

I don’t think many extra units would be required to run Sevenoaks all day. One or two less units for maintenance during the day, that’s about.

At the end of the day they would have to segregate Welwyn and Hertford differently with that service pattern. Should be fairly easy to run 4tph Moorgate-Hertford with 2tph continuing to Stevenage, and 2tph Welwyn-Moorgate, with 2tph Welwyn-Sevenoaks.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Dec 2025 ==

All of these had their pre covid timetables restored pretty quickly.

On paper, perhaps. But I can guarantee that LU isn’t running a pre-Covid service in practice, with many days seeing strings of cancellations. And remember a number of LU lines have had their timetable slimmed down over the last few years. Bakerloo, Central and Piccadilly for a start.

The management of Lu and DLR saw fit to restore their precovid timetable asap and so they experience closer to the precovid

They did so because the previous government insisted they do so as part of the funding package. I suspect if that hadn’t been the case then it wouldn’t have happened. As I say, in practice LU simply isn’t delivering 100% of their timetable, by a long way. For balance, I realise GTR isn’t great in this regard either.

 

[cactustwirly]

From experience of the Elizabeth line, TfL cannot be trusted with services outside of London. There will be no mechanism to hold TfL accountable for services in Hertfordshire

For NCL users in Hertford they will be left high and dry when there is disruption, with no option but to use "local London buses". The default option seems to cancel everything and abandon hope during disruption

At least the Elizabeth line has GWR to bail them out, they add extra stops on intercity services at Maidenhead and Slough etc.

All it does is change the colour of the stations and trains to orange, I don't think the NCL stations are any worse than the LU stations.
Look at a lot of the stations on the Bakerloo line which are tired and very dirty

 

[Transilien]

I know that this is impossible because of the Bank of England vaults, but if the Northern city line was extended south to London Bridge it would be a good alternative to the Thameslink core with Great Northern Inners crossing London to connect with the Southern suburban services that run out of London Bridge. You could even make it the third crossrail line.

 

[bramling]

I know that this is impossible because of the Bank of England vaults, but if the Northern city line was extended south to London Bridge it would be a good alternative to the Thameslink core with Great Northern Inners crossing London to connect with the Southern suburban services that run out of London Bridge. You could even make it the third crossrail line.

One of the problems with the NCL is that the infrastructure is set up for 6-car trains, and changing that is virtually impossible - though an extension beyond Moorgate would open up the possibility of longer trains using SDO.

This is partly why Welwyn-Sevenoaks is a better solution for the Welwyn route, as it enables 8-car trains to be used.

In an ideal world, Thameslink would have taken over Hertford as well, perhaps in preference to some of the Cambridge or Peterborough services. Moorgate has never been a great terminus, hence why many people alight at Finsbury Park or Highbury instead. For those on the Welwyn route, Moorgate is also duplicated by the Northern Line, with the journey time being about the same.

 

[Mattplans]

There will be no mechanism to hold TfL accountable for services in Hertfordshire

Why should there be? Can the residents of Hertfordshire hold anyone to account for their poor train services at the moment?

For NCL users in Hertford they will be left high and dry when there is disruption, with no option but to use "local London buses". The default option seems to cancel everything and abandon hope during disruption

I feel like this argument would be so much stronger if it had been a different ToC. But it's GTR we're talking about. There's an ongoing discussion approaching 600 posts about how poorly GTR manage disruption, and the thread was only started in March. GTR aren't exactly known for being supportive during disruption.

You say

The default option seems to cancel everything and abandon hope during disruption"

....but that is exactly how we have seen GTR behave during the disruption that's occured due to fatalities and signal failures over the past 7 days. I genuinely fail to believe it could get any worse. At least crews would be severed which would lead to less displacement and crews stuck south of the river. 03/12 - reports emerge of person struck by a train at Stevenage at 1:15. They were still cancelling trains due to this issue at the end of the morning peak the next day. Residual disruption probably lasted about 24 hours. As far as "cancelling everything and abandoning all hope during disruption" goes, I think we have a pretty clear example.

I know that this is impossible because of the Bank of England vaults, but if the Northern city line was extended south to London Bridge it would be a good alternative to the Thameslink core with Great Northern Inners crossing London to connect with the Southern suburban services that run out of London Bridge. You could even make it the third crossrail line.

I agree, I would've even said it should run to Slade Green via Greenwich and make that line Overground as well.

 

[Failed Unit]

One of the problems with the NCL is that the infrastructure is set up for 6-car trains, and changing that is virtually impossible - though an extension beyond Moorgate would open up the possibility of longer trains using SDO.

This is partly why Welwyn-Sevenoaks is a better solution for the Welwyn route, as it enables 8-car trains to be used.

In an ideal world, Thameslink would have taken over Hertford as well, perhaps in preference to some of the Cambridge or Peterborough services. Moorgate has never been a great terminus, hence why many people alight at Finsbury Park or Highbury instead. For those on the Welwyn route, Moorgate is also duplicated by the Northern Line, with the journey time being about the same.

There are actually a reasonable number of people that are going to the City. Granted this can be achieved by a change at St Pancras (for Old Street) or Farringdon (for Moorgate) However the traditional northern line can be a little crowded. I think there is a place for both and the minimum frequency between Moorgate and Alexandra Palace should be at least every 15 minutes. I think TFL will be wanting at least 10 minutes (which will be a challenge when you don‘t have separate infrastructure).

To me I would support this to be rid of GTR - However as we see with Northern and TPE a change of operator doesn’t fix the problems on GTR overnight. On the positive they seem to be able able so far to run the Saturday service in December. However the month is young….

 

[cactustwirly]

Why should there be? Can the residents of Hertfordshire hold anyone to account for their poor train services at the moment?

I feel like this argument would be so much stronger if it had been a different ToC. But it's GTR we're talking about. There's an ongoing discussion approaching 600 posts about how poorly GTR manage disruption, and the thread was only started in March. GTR aren't exactly known for being supportive during disruption.

You say

....but that is exactly how we have seen GTR behave during the disruption that's occured due to fatalities and signal failures over the past 7 days. I genuinely fail to believe it could get any worse. At least crews would be severed which would lead to less displacement and crews stuck south of the river.



I agree, I would've even said it should run to Slade Green via Greenwich and make that line Overground as well.

People of Hertfordshire have their MP, who can hold the DfT to account.
It is much harder for them to hold TfL to account as there is no direct reporting to the DfT
They don't care about Hertfordshire, that is extra baggage, just the service in London

My experience of TfL and GWR during disruption is night and day. One tries to run it as a tube line and does not have the experience of running the mainline. GWR aren't perfect by any means but will attempt to run a service, much more keen to think outside the box, swap things around and add extra stops to get people home

 

[Recessio]

People of Hertfordshire have their MP, who can hold the DfT to account.
It is much harder for them to hold TfL to account as there is no direct reporting to the DfT
They don't care about Hertfordshire, that is extra baggage, just the service in London

My experience of TfL and GWR during disruption is night and day. One tries to run it as a tube line and does not have the experience of running the mainline. GWR aren't perfect by any means but will attempt to run a service, much more keen to think outside the box, swap things around and add extra stops to get people home

TfL services already serve Hertfordshire through the Underground (Metropolitan line) and the Overground (Weaver and Lioness lines), and also Essex through the Central line. They seem to get a pretty good service, not "extra baggage".

I do agree with you that Elizabeth line service during disruption hasn't been fantastic. But then again GTR don't have a reputation for good service recovery either!

The TfL board also includes two members specifically to represent services users living outside of Greater London (which I imagine also therefore includes the Elizabeth line and the various Bus routes that go over the Greater London border).

 

[Failed Unit]

TfL services already serve Hertfordshire through the Underground (Metropolitan line) and the Overground (Weaver and Lioness lines), and also Essex through the Central line. They seem to get a pretty good service, not "extra baggage".

I do agree with you that Elizabeth line service during disruption hasn't been fantastic. But then again GTR don't have a reputation for good service recovery either!

The TfL board also includes two members specifically to represent services users living outside of Greater London (which I imagine also therefore includes the Elizabeth line and the various Bus routes that go over the Greater London border).

I agree - GTR set a very low bar for service recovery, just look at the many incidents last week. Maybe TfL would throw in the towel and abandon the rush hour like GTR did last week. However I wouldn't use this as a reason to block TfL taking over. If I lived at Brookmans Park or Welham Green however I would be concerned about less stops for a more robust timetable.

 

[Magdalia]

That would give 10tph all day - a lot at the outer stations, but a metro service for the inners and 10tph in the core tube. London services are far more used off peak than dormitory ones.

This is vast overprovision, especially given that one of the main constraints is lack of traincrew. Has the off peak service to/from Moorgate ever been more than 6tph?

This is partly why Welwyn-Sevenoaks is a better solution for the Welwyn route, as it enables 8-car trains to be used.

I don’t think many extra units would be required to run Sevenoaks all day. One or two less units for maintenance during the day, that’s about.

At the end of the morning peak, the units at the Sevenoaks end work the Blackfriars service, the units at the Welwyn Garden end sit in the sidings wating for the evening peak. I agree that this is a far better solution than more trains to Moorgate.

In an ideal world, Thameslink would have taken over Hertford as well, perhaps in preference to some of the Cambridge or Peterborough services.

I agree, and a new station for Crews Hill New Town with 8 car platforms is the opportunity to do it.

People of Hertfordshire have their MP, who can hold the DfT to account.

And, in the fullness of time, Hertfordshire will have a mayor too.

 

[NCT]

Various posters trying to defend a mainline model for what's clearly a metro geography is clear evidence in favour of TfL taking over the Moorgate services.

 

[cactustwirly]

Various posters trying to defend a mainline model for what's clearly a metro geography is clear evidence in favour of TfL taking over the Moorgate services.

How is it clear evidence?

We have been making pragmatic arguments that there will be no difference, except for the colour of the trains. There will be no accountability for people outside of London.

TfLs compensation arrangements and disruption arrangements are poorer than mainline operators

So basically a lot of downgrades for an orange coloured train and a new line on the map

 

[Sad Sprinter]

Hold on a minute I’m confused:

1. Why are the Orpington to Welwyn trains coming back in two years from now? The Catford Loop is pretty unhelpful without a direct train through the Core.
2. Why can’t the Welwyn route just be Thameslink only leaving Moorgate with just the Hertfords?
3. Will Thameslink stoppers to Welwyn compliment the Moorgates?

 

[bramling]

Various posters trying to defend a mainline model for what's clearly a metro geography is clear evidence in favour of TfL taking over the Moorgate services.

I’m not sure it really is a metro route. North of New Barnet the line passes through mainly fields, serving essentially small towns and villages. Potters Bar, Hatfield and Welwyn GC have a half-hourly fast service to London which most people prefer to use.

Likewise, Hertford is fields north of Gordon Hill. Crews Hill (for the time being at least), Bayford and Watton-at-Stone are very lightly used. For Stevenage the line serves local journeys only. Hertford North users would prefer a fast service to London which they’ve seldom ever had - notice how Hertford gets a somewhat worse London service compared to Welwyn, albeit Hertford’s population is less.

So this leaves Alexandra Palace-Gordon Hill, and New Southgate-New Barnet, both of which are heavily duplicated by the Piccadilly and Northern lines. I would say there’s scope for a more intensive service as far as Gordon Hill. If anything, a more palatable service pattern for the Hertford line would be 2tph semi-fast from Stevenage to London, and a metro service inwards from Gordon Hill.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Dec 2025 ==

Hold on a minute I’m confused:

1. Why are the Orpington to Welwyn trains coming back in two years from now? The Catford Loop is pretty unhelpful without a direct train through the Core.
2. Why can’t the Welwyn route just be Thameslink only leaving Moorgate with just the Hertfords?
3. Will Thameslink stoppers to Welwyn compliment the Moorgates?

What I imagine will happen is Welwyn-Sevenoaks will go all-day, so the off-peak frequency from Welwyn to London would be

2tph Cambridge/Letchworth to KX fast
2tph Welwyn to Sevenoaks semi-fast
2tph Welwyn to Moorgate all stations

Then in the peaks an extra 2tph Welwyn to Moorgate.

As for question 2, I guess with a significant recast of things you could run a further 2tph Thameslink to Welwyn (albeit you’d need to find somewhere south of the river to match them up to), but for this there would need to be 700/0s redeployed from elsewhere, SDO at many stations, and some changes to stabling.

If Welwyn Moorgate was ditched altogether there might be some opposition from people used to a service which has run since the 1970s, though as I say Moorgate isn’t a massively popular destination all in all.

 

[NCT]

I’m not sure it really is a metro route. North of New Barnet the line passes through mainly fields, serving essentially small towns and villages. Potters Bar, Hatfield and Welwyn GC have a half-hourly fast service to London which most people prefer to use.

Likewise, Hertford is fields north of Gordon Hill. Crews Hill (for the time being at least), Bayford and Watton-at-Stone are very lightly used. For Stevenage the line serves local journeys only. Hertford North users would prefer a fast service to London which they’ve seldom ever had - notice how Hertford gets a somewhat worse London service compared to Welwyn, albeit Hertford’s population is less.

So this leaves Alexandra Palace-Gordon Hill, and New Southgate-New Barnet, both of which are heavily duplicated by the Piccadilly and Northern lines. I would say there’s scope for a more intensive service as far as Gordon Hill. If anything, a more palatable service pattern for the Hertford line would be 2tph semi-fast from Stevenage to London, and a metro service inwards from Gordon Hill.

You are just describing the Met beyond Harrow and Central Line beyond Debden. On the Hertford Loop, the only difference with the Central line is that the Epping Ongar equivalent (north of Hertford) is worth keeping.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

I’m not sure it really is a metro route. North of New Barnet the line passes through mainly fields, serving essentially small towns and villages. Potters Bar, Hatfield and Welwyn GC have a half-hourly fast service to London which most people prefer to use.

Likewise, Hertford is fields north of Gordon Hill. Crews Hill (for the time being at least), Bayford and Watton-at-Stone are very lightly used. For Stevenage the line serves local journeys only. Hertford North users would prefer a fast service to London which they’ve seldom ever had - notice how Hertford gets a somewhat worse London service compared to Welwyn, albeit Hertford’s population is less.

So this leaves Alexandra Palace-Gordon Hill, and New Southgate-New Barnet, both of which are heavily duplicated by the Piccadilly and Northern lines. I would say there’s scope for a more intensive service as far as Gordon Hill. If anything, a more palatable service pattern for the Hertford line would be 2tph semi-fast from Stevenage to London, and a metro service inwards from Gordon Hill.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Dec 2025 ==



What I imagine will happen is Welwyn-Sevenoaks will go all-day, so the off-peak frequency from Welwyn to London would be

2tph Cambridge/Letchworth to KX fast
2tph Welwyn to Sevenoaks semi-fast
2tph Welwyn to Moorgate all stations

Then in the peaks an extra 2tph Welwyn to Moorgate.

As for question 2, I guess with a significant recast of things you could run a further 2tph Thameslink to Welwyn (albeit you’d need to find somewhere south of the river to match them up to), but for this there would need to be 700/0s redeployed from elsewhere, SDO at many stations, and some changes to stabling.

If Welwyn Moorgate was ditched altogether there might be some opposition from people used to a service which has run since the 1970s, though as I say Moorgate isn’t a massively popular destination all in all.

Couldn’t they just extend the Blackfriars terminating service there? You could maybe ditch the peak East Grinstead service and give it back to Southern.

 

[TrainTraveler]

For what it's worth, to support the Crews Hill development an increase on that route (only) throughout the day would be worthwhile (probably to the 4 trains an hour peaks have).

Running the extras Hertford North (or perhaps closer in) to Moorgate would be good. It would then allow the New Barnet route to potentially have more Thameslink services although there is an obvious question of what the stopping pattern might be.

I see the "Overgroundisation" of both routes as a bit of a distraction. A better station at Crews Hill and a better service is what a substantial development there needs rather than turning orange.

 

[jon0844]

I agree - GTR set a very low bar for service recovery, just look at the many incidents last week. Maybe TfL would throw in the towel and abandon the rush hour like GTR did last week. However I wouldn't use this as a reason to block TfL taking over. If I lived at Brookmans Park or Welham Green however I would be concerned about less stops for a more robust timetable.

When the core was as good as shut, it impacted a lot of TLGN services because of the way the driver diagrams work. If TfL ran the inners completely independently, I am sure it would have been able to continue running as near as normal.

However, other types of infrastructure issues causing disruption (of which there are so many these days, from track circuit failures, to power supply trips and points not being confirmed etc) would likely see them impacted just the same.

I really do think they'd do very little for the stations outside of London, and a good point was mentioned above - TfL can't simply say 'tickets valid on local buses' when many stations have little to no buses. Would TfL be proactive in booking taxis?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Dec 2025 ==

If Welwyn Moorgate was ditched altogether there might be some opposition from people used to a service which has run since the 1970s, though as I say Moorgate isn’t a massively popular destination all in all.

The inners are pretty quiet outside of London off-peak (around Potters Bar and further north), but yesterday (Sunday 3pm) at least 200 people alighted at Moorgate.

Now the core was closed for engineering, so a lot of people may have been going there for the Elizabeth Line, but I was surprised that even after a lot of people got off at Highbury & Islington it was still extremely busy. Some may have been going to walk to Liverpool Street and other tube lines, and I guess some were going to visit places in the city that are now open on Sunday when they weren't before (mostly a ghost town at weekends and even late evenings early in the week).

Old Street is also buzzing at weekends.

I doubt leisure passengers would get much say in changes though, but those working in the city would absolutely protest if they lost direct trains to the city and had to change. Some might find City Thameslink better, or Farringdon, but having both makes more sense.

 

[Failed Unit]

The inners are pretty quiet outside of London off-peak (around Potters Bar and further north), but yesterday (Sunday 3pm) at least 200 people alighted at Moorgate.

Now the core was closed for engineering, so a lot of people may have been going there for the Elizabeth Line, but I was surprised that even after a lot of people got off at Highbury & Islington it was still extremely busy. Some may have been going to walk to Liverpool Street and other tube lines, and I guess some were going to visit places in the city that are now open on Sunday when they weren't before (mostly a ghost town at weekends and even late evenings early in the week).

It is actually surprising how many people don't realise that Moorgate is on the Elizabeth line. TfL are not trying to hide this fact either. (Granted the Northern City line is not on the pure tube map). However if I am travelling from WGC - somewhere West on the Elizabeth line I tend to change at Finsbury Park and Farringdon. Going to Moorgate is probably quicker. Don't recall it coming up often on journey planners. Not sure if they should have named the station Liverpool Street - Moorgate. I know many people who pop out of Moorgate rather then Liverpool St.

 

[jon0844]

The time to change to the Elizabeth Line at Moorgate isn't far off what it is at Farringdon, depending on the way you're going. But I wonder how much time is given on journey planners, and if that influences whether it ever shows as an itinerary on planners.

Also, there are probably just as many people who aren't aware of how short the walk to Liverpool Street station is at ground level - and go to King's Cross and take the tube there.

As there are a lot of commuters going into the city in the week, perhaps a lot of them with season tickets (given the city is perhaps one place where a lot of people are back to full time in the office) go at weekends, or just know the location of everything. For leisure travellers, I think there's a lot of ignorance and - yes - if TfL took over, there would be better advertising of the route and connections.

But, like other things I've said, we can make a lot of improvements without different coloured trains.