Northern Future fleet updates

[Geeves]

So far as I know the entire fleet of 150s and 156s have had the absolute works spent on them so rather than condition it'll be exam hours you'd imagine. There is no reason why these units wouldn't last another 20 years. I think it's a misnomer to say "soldiering on".

It won't be corrosion issues that finish them off that's for sure if you remember the work on that 156 from EMT that was stripped to the frame.

Any units that come from elsewhere would be (in my opinion) in addition to the current fleet untill the new trains arrive, 500k to 1 million pounds a pop on a 150 will see to that.

Don't forget as well that the 15x fleet is currently being stretched to cover for multiple demic 195 units waiting parts and wheels from Spain. No "binning off" will be occuring anytime soon.

 

[Ribbleman]

There are other options if the funding is there. TFW 158s start going off lease next year. They could replace the 150s in the worst condition to buy more time.

Given the appalling lack of reliability despite component changes, the more urgent need at Northern is to replace the 769s. This would require 16 of the TfW 158s if done on a like for like basis. I understand that discussions have taken place with the DfT.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Dec 2025 ==

Slide shown at recent Stakeholder event in Liverpool, apologies for quality

View attachment 193337

The slide below was also shown at the same presentation. I’m not sure that the dates match up.

 

[D365]

I was thinking more Penistone line and South Yorkshire stopping services, always back of the queue.

No more back of the of queue than any of the other 15x operated services…

 

[pokemonsuper9]

Moved reply to speculation thread

Northern New Fleet and Cascade allocations (speculation).

I figured this needed its own thread. Will the North East get more 158s or the new MMUs? They have said new trains would arrive in the North East by 2030/31. That’s an email I got back from them with regards this question in May. Why would the North East need the MMU's quite early on...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[Snow1964]

DfT currently has two entries on its procurement spreadsheet, the one for new units, and ones with earlier dates about replacing earliest 15x

Have they just be caught out by Wales, which has just issued a tender for 3 years extra maintenance of 158s, which presumably means TfW is keeping its 158s rather than off leasing them (being discussed in the Wales 15x withdrawal thread).

https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2025/W49/859963749

I wonder where Northern will now find diesel units to replace old 15x (although a cascade involving spare 221, 22, 180 etc is possible, not that anyone would directly replace a 150 with one of these)

If they can't replace the earlier 15x could some 150s still be struggling on into 2030s

 

[3RDGEN]

DfT currently has two entries on its procurement spreadsheet, the one for new units, and ones with earlier dates about replacing earliest 15x

Have they just be caught out by Wales, which has just issued a tender for 3 years extra maintenance of 158s, which presumably means TfW is keeping its 158s rather than off leasing them (being discussed in the Wales 15x withdrawal thread).

https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2025/W49/859963749

I wonder where Northern will now find diesel units to replace old 15x (although a cascade involving spare 221, 22, 180 etc is possible, not that anyone would directly replace a 150 with one of these)

If they can't replace the earlier 15x could some 150s still be struggling on into 2030s

The Phase 1 new builds are planned to replace the 150/155/156 fleets from 2030 onwards, so those 15x fleets will happily continue for another 6 or 7 years if the current timescales are delivered. If the TfW 158's become available one option would be for Northern to lease them creating a fleet cascade to allow some of the older 15x's or the 769's to be withdrawn before the Phase 1 new builds arrive but that has never be officially confirmed and isn't a requirement of the current published plans.

I believe the two entries in the DfT spreadsheet are for the same fleets, one for procuring the trains and one for financing/maintenance agreements of the trains.

 

[Stephen42]

I believe the two entries in the DfT spreadsheet are for the same fleets, one for procuring the trains and one for financing/maintenance agreements of the trains.

Correct. The procurement pipeline spreadsheets need to be treated with a pinch or maybe even a vat of salt. They are mostly intended for advanced notice of upcoming procurements than giving status updates of active competitions. Dates are rarely accurate aside from for events that have already happened. With leasing existing rolling stock, there is often no real competition due to limited unleased stock and wouldn't be listed on the spreadsheet or have an active competition if they decide to award with a transparency notice justifying their decision (which can be challenged, but is unlikely to be).

The slides posted here show the dates for the Northern rows to wildly optimistic, with first award expected to November 2026 rather than anything in the first half of the year as per the spreadsheet.

 

[Bornin1980s]

Isn't the slow replacement of diesel trains due to Jo Johnson's rash promise to eliminate all 'diesel only' trains by 2040?

 

[Bevan Price]

Could some of the GW 150s in better condition move to Northern as an interim measure ??

 

[Snow1964]

Could some of the GW 150s in better condition move to Northern as an interim measure ??

GWR are spending £0.5m+ per unit (might be per vehicle) giving their 150s a serious overhaul and refurb to keep them a few years.

The GWR replacement fleet is not expected until about 2030-2033 so I suspect not going to be available as any interim.

 

[Mollman]

Could some of the GW 150s in better condition move to Northern as an interim measure ??

I don't think they will have any to spare even when all 175s are in service

 

[Snow1964]

Included within today's DfT releases on GBR

So just another 13-24 months to wait for an order to be placed (but subject to business case, rather than will happen regardless)

Procuring new trains. Subject to business case, Northern will be able to sign contracts in 2027 for over 130 new trains to enter into service from 2031. These will replace life expired assets.

GBR: improvements train operators in public ownership are making for customers

Train operators in public ownership are demonstrating they are putting passengers first, by delivering customer improvements.

www.gov.uk

 

[Mollman]

Included within today's DfT releases on GBR

So just another 13-24 months to wait for an order to be placed (but subject to business case, rather than will happen regardless)

GBR: improvements train operators in public ownership are making for customers

Train operators in public ownership are demonstrating they are putting passengers first, by delivering customer improvements.

www.gov.uk

Yes I did enjoy the irony that the people claiming that Nationalised Railway is delivering new trains are the same that have been preventing/delaying new train orders for a few years now.

 

[Snow1964]

That was on a slide shown at the Stakeholder Conference in Liverpool on 17th November. Aim to be in service mid-late 2032.

From same slide, first EMU into service on TRU late 2030, first MMU into service in North West late 2031.

We all know circumstances can, and probably will, change but it's looking more specific as the months progress.

And today's DfT announcement has stated that Northern order will placed during 2027, with first trains now due in service during 2031

So looks like 2030 has drifted to 2031

GBR: improvements train operators in public ownership are making for customers

Train operators in public ownership are demonstrating they are putting passengers first, by delivering customer improvements.

www.gov.uk

 

[rattyben]

Included within today's DfT releases on GBR

So just another 13-24 months to wait for an order to be placed (but subject to business case, rather than will happen regardless)

GBR: improvements train operators in public ownership are making for customers

Train operators in public ownership are demonstrating they are putting passengers first, by delivering customer improvements.

www.gov.uk

Did the southeastern order go through a business case? Felt like they where following similar timelines.

Also I thought TPE and LNER where procuring new fleets.

 

[Killingworth]

And today's DfT announcement has stated that Northern order will placed during 2027, with first trains now due in service during 2031

So looks like 2030 has drifted to 2031

GBR: improvements train operators in public ownership are making for customers

Train operators in public ownership are demonstrating they are putting passengers first, by delivering customer improvements.

www.gov.uk

No surprise there as we all know 2 or 3 years added in to time scales at this early stage is normal. Too many potential gremlins at all points along the way. 2030 sounded rather over optimistic. Even 2031 will be good.

 

[Snow1964]

Did the southeastern order go through a business case? Felt like they where following similar timelines.

Also I thought TPE and LNER where procuring new fleets.

The DfT announcement last night for South Eastern says procuring new rolling stock for Metro network (with the process concluding mid 2026)

Whereas for Northern it says procuring new trains. Subject to business case. Northern will be able to sign contracts in 2027.

Depending on how you read it, suggests SE is 6-18 months ahead of Northern.

 

[Stephen42]

Did the southeastern order go through a business case? Felt like they where following similar timelines.

Also I thought TPE and LNER where procuring new fleets.

LNER have completed procurement and CAF will be/are manufacturing their new trains. TPE there is an active procurement. The financing side for that one has had the dates pushed back in the latest DfT commercial pipeline document (as unreliable as those are). I have no non-public knowledge, but would suggest it being unmentioned in the press release speaks volumes about how it's going and the certainty of when it might conclude.

Southeastern/Northern are following similar processes, with Southeastern having started earlier. Each would have done an initial/outline case to determine procurement was worth progressing. Both will also need to do a business case for the final investment decision. The Northern business case call out might be as the "over 130 units" is very much subject to the business case concluding that unit count is the best value for money. Hypothetically longer units could mean fewer units or some fleets might be replaced as phase 2 rather than a contract signed in 2027.

 

[Class 323 Fan]

And today's DfT announcement has stated that Northern order will placed during 2027, with first trains now due in service during 2031

So looks like 2030 has drifted to 2031

GBR: improvements train operators in public ownership are making for customers

Train operators in public ownership are demonstrating they are putting passengers first, by delivering customer improvements.

www.gov.uk

I wonder why this has happened?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Dec 2025 ==

Given the appalling lack of reliability despite component changes, the more urgent need at Northern is to replace the 769s. This would require 16 of the TfW 158s if done on a like for like basis. I understand that discussions have taken place with the DfT.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Dec 2025 ==



The slide below was also shown at the same presentation. I’m not sure that the dates match up.

is this presentation publicly available or not??
if so, could you give me the link
thanks

 

[Class 323 Fan]

The new fleet(s) will not be compatible with Class 195 or Class 331 for anything other than recovery purposes. There will be no multiple workings.

Are you sure about this? For example, if the EMU lot went to caf, why wouldn't the 2 be compatible, its makes sense, especially since they like to move their trains all over the place.

 

[RUK]

Are you sure about this? For example, if the EMU lot went to caf, why wouldn't the 2 be compatible, its makes sense, especially since they like to move their trains all over the place.

CAF’s Class 196s and 197s aren’t even compatible with each other, apart from for recovery purposes.

 

[Class 323 Fan]

That was on a slide shown at the Stakeholder Conference in Liverpool on 17th November. Aim to be in service mid-late 2032.

From same slide, first EMU into service on TRU late 2030, first MMU into service in North West late 2031.

We all know circumstances can, and probably will, change but it's looking more specific as the months progress.

I’m going to guess that the MMUs are for Windermere/Barrow. Or even the Hope Valley.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Jan 2026 ==

My concern is that with those entry into service dates, they need to be placing orders soon. Especially for the MMU and BEMUs. The 810s were over 6 years from order to entry into service.....

Apparently they are going to be placing orders in 2027 now, and introduction of them has been pushed back a year, so may be another decade with the 150s, I hope not, I’d take a 195 over a 150

 

[D365]

I’m going to guess that the MMUs are for Windermere/Barrow. Or even the Hope Valley.

The MMUs are the majority of the order - all but 20 of the Phase 1 units are MMU - so they will do a lot more than just that.

Apparently they are going to be placing orders in 2027 now, and introduction of them has been pushed back a year, so may be another decade with the 150s, I hope not, I’d take a 195 over a 150

One year isn't going to make any odds. Class 150s will be in mainline service for another ~10 years.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I’m going to guess that the MMUs are for Windermere/Barrow. Or even the Hope Valley.

Replied in speculative thread: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/northern-future-fleet-speculation.293925/page-2#post-7632936

 

[Class 323 Fan]

Ok

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Jan 2026 ==

The MMUs are the majority of the order - all but 20 of the Phase 1 units are MMU - so they will do a lot more than just that.

One year isn't going to make any odds. Class 150s will be in mainline service for another ~10 years.

I’m not sure why Serco and Abellio didn’t order new trains in the 2010s, as the pacers are as old as the Sprinters, it would of been nice if they replaced the Sprinters then, instead, we are stuck with 1980s units for another 10 years, there’s loads of examples where the south has new trains, and the North is stuck with trains from the 80s. I’m glad that we finally get recognised

 

[Killingworth]

I’m going to guess that the MMUs are for Windermere/Barrow. Or even the Hope Valley.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Jan 2026 ==


Apparently they are going to be placing orders in 2027 now, and introduction of them has been pushed back a year, so may be another decade with the 150s, I hope not, I’d take a 195 over a 150

Class 780* MMUs are being designed now with business case approval anticipated by the end of 2026 followed by detailed design, with building starting in late 2028. If all goes to plan introduction into service has already slipped from 2030 to 2031.

Over the next 6 years many things can happen but I'd expect to see a 780 in regular service to Buxton or Southport before the Hope Valley. Barrow next although maybe 781 for Windermere?

*Class 780 here; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Rail_Class_780
*Class 781; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Rail_Class_781

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I’m not sure why Serco and Abellio didn’t order new trains in the 2010s, as the pacers are as old as the Sprinters, it would of been nice if they replaced the Sprinters then, instead, we are stuck with 1980s units for another 10 years, there’s loads of examples where the south has new trains, and the North is stuck with trains from the 80s. I’m glad that we finally get recognised

Because they weren't allowed to by the DfT, as there was no money or business case.
The Transport Secretary eventually had to overrule his Permanent Secretary for Arriva to place an order with CAF to replace the Pacers, on the successor franchise contracted in 2016.
The Sprinters were then only about 25 years old, with plenty of life left in them.
Several other franchises were in the same position, particularly for diesel-operated lines (ATW/TfW, GWR regional, Scotrail, EMR regional, Central etc).

 

[RailWonderer]

Class 780* MMUs are being designed now with business case approval anticipated by the end of 2026 followed by detailed design, with building starting in late 2028. If all goes to plan introduction into service has already slipped from 2030 to 2031.

Over the next 6 years many things can happen but I'd expect to see a 780 in regular service to Buxton or Southport before the Hope Valley. Barrow next although maybe 781 for Windermere?

*Class 780 here; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Rail_Class_780
*Class 781; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Rail_Class_781

What business case do you need when the simple facts are that 40+ year old trains need to be replaced by a new type of train that will last for another 40 years? Modernising the railway for better quality, efficiency and reliability can all be made in a single powerpoint without a year long process.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

What business case do you need when the simple facts are that 40+ year old trains need to be replaced by a new type of train that will last for another 40 years? Modernising the railway for better quality, efficiency and reliability can all be made in a single powerpoint without a year long process.

The banks supplying the finance, and the Rosco, will want to know how you intend to deploy the new trains which they will own.
The DfT will want to know how it impacts the balance sheet of the operator, even if it's GBR.
The various participants will need targets and performance objectives to incentivise efficient delivery and introduction.
Maintenance facilities will need to be upgraded and possibly resited, training will need to be specified and delivered.
The thorny question of who opens the doors will need to be decided and then managed.
All of this and more will be in any business case, and you can't do without it if you are spending megabucks over many years.

 

[Snow1964]

I’m not sure why Serco and Abellio didn’t order new trains in the 2010s, as the pacers are as old as the Sprinters, it would of been nice if they replaced the Sprinters then, instead, we are stuck with 1980s units for another 10 years, there’s loads of examples where the south has new trains, and the North is stuck with trains from the 80s. I’m glad that we finally get recognised

I think you need to be bit more careful and precise if you want to compare age of trains north vs south. Southern counties like Devon, Wiltshire, Somerset all have local and inter regional trains that are 34-40 years old, (and nothing newer if exclude intercity fleets)

Perhaps the bigger question is why Northern are still continuing and doing their own train order, with silly little batches of various types. Rather than joining forces with GWR, Chiltern, SWR (diesel fleet) etc that also have 34-40 year old trains. Then agreeing 2 or 3 common types that are sourced under big framework deals to get economies of scale discounts or better prices.

By the time these orders get a business case, will all be under same ultimate parent, or controlling entity.