Russia invades Ukraine

[Sorcerer]

One can only imagine the embarrassment a rational American must feel when the President whose supporters once attempted a coup now defends someone aiding an enemy state against him on the very same day when Jair Bolsonaro is ordered to serve a 27-year prison sentence for the very same crime in Brazil, a country that is perceived as considerably more corrupt than the United States.

As three big wise engines once said: Disgraceful. Disgusting. Despicable.

 

[Annetts key]

The question is, how will this play out with the American voters? Will it cause Trumps popularity polling figure to drop significantly from its already low figure?

Previously, polls have indicated that a substantial proportion of Americans back helping Ukraine. But apparently there is not much coverage of the war or the issues in the American media. So it's not a big issue in their politics.

Is this, along with the worsening economic outlook going to contribute to the Republicans losing enough seats in the mid-term elections next November that they lose control of the house?

 

[najaB]

Is this, along with the worsening economic outlook going to contribute to the Republicans losing enough seats in the mid-term elections next November that they loose control of the house?

I know it's a typo, but the GOP's control of everything is pretty loose at the moment.

 

[martin butler]

I know it's a typo, but the GOP's control of everything is pretty loose at the moment.

And it will come back to bite then, one day, See, whilst Trump won't pay, those who did his bidding will and many will be saying, " but I was only following orders" as they are lead away in orange jumpsuits, to serve long prison sentences, History will I think show that Trump actually was guilty of treason, even if he never was charged,

 

[generalnerd]

Under a previous administration that would be grounds for a charge of "Aiding the enemy", serious enough that one can be executed for it.

That would be if Russia was considering by the USA to be an enemy

 

[brad465]

That would be if Russia was considering by the USA to be an enemy

True, though such a move to suck up to Russia could very easily be retrospectively considered treason by a later administration. Petain made Vichy France a "friend" of the Axis powers, then after WW2 was convicted of treason.

 

[najaB]

There's been much sabre rattling from the Russians about escalation of the conflict to a nuclear one, however it seems the sabres might be a little rusty:

Russia has suffered a failed Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) test after a launch at the Yasny range in the Orenburg region ended in an explosion only seconds after liftoff.

The missile rose roughly 200–400 meters before detonating in midair and crashing back to the ground, leaving behind a visible purple toxic cloud.

The incident occurred at the Yasny launch site, a location that hosts both a cosmodrome and a base for Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces. It is one of the few facilities in the country capable of launching long-range missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles equipped with nuclear warheads.

Russia’s ICBM test fails in mid-launch explosion

Russia has suffered a failed Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) test after a launch at the Yasny range in the Orenburg region ended in an explosion only seconds after liftoff. The missile rose roughly 200–400 meters before detonating in midair and

defence-blog.com

 

[styles]

It does seem 'funny' how some of these countries which pride themselves on military might actually don't have amazing militaries.

Russia is apparently selling off its gold now to pay for the war as well.

 

[martin butler]

It does seem 'funny' how some of these countries which pride themselves on military might actually don't have amazing militaries.

Russia is apparently selling off its gold now to pay for the war as well.

Strange isn't it, just as Russia is seemingly running out of money, so Ukraine has to surrender, and its " useful idiots" Trump, and others, start to pile on the pressure, Europe at least is still behind Ukraine, and hopefully will remain loyally so,

 

[YorkshireBear]

Strange isn't it, just as Russia is seemingly running out of money, so Ukraine has to surrender, and its " useful idiots" Trump, and others, start to pile on the pressure, Europe at least is still behind Ukraine, and hopefully will remain loyally so,

I mean it's sad how glaringly obvious it is. Russia is really struggling. Offer the corrupt business men currently residing in the white house lots of business deals for ending the war. They are driven by their own greed so will happily sell Ukraine down the river to make some money (whether they will is a different question, Russia isn't known for letting Americans make loads of money at their expense).

I hope Europe and other global allies have a plan for if the US abandon Ukraine. Because I fear it's coming after Wormtongue's Witkoff's visit to Moscow and yet again offer a peace plan completely unacceptable to Ukraine.

 

[martin butler]

I mean it's sad how glaringly obvious it is. Russia is really struggling. Offer the corrupt business men currently residing in the white house lots of business deals for ending the war. They are driven by their own greed so will happily sell Ukraine down the river to make some money (whether they will is a different question, Russia isn't known for letting Americans make loads of money at their expense).

I hope Europe and other global allies have a plan for if the US abandon Ukraine. Because I fear it's coming after Wormtongue's Witkoff's visit to Moscow and yet again offer a peace plan completely unacceptable to Ukraine.

I think that Witkoff might very soon have a few problems of his own such as being arrested and charged with treason, Trump isn't going to last forever, and when he does go, either because he's forced too, or through his own mortality, I can see a lot of trumps henchmen needing to lawyer up. And Once the gloves come off, Ukraine with help from other countries, who fully understand what life under Russian rule was like, won't want to see it return.

And for the US, there won't be any spoils to divide up, because they will have backed the wrong side. American industry that did so well out of Nato, and Europe, is going to find very few orders coming their way, as Europe says, we can't trust you.

 

[35B]

I think that Witkoff might very soon have a few problems of his own such as being arrested and charged with treason, Trump isn't going to last forever, and when he does go, either because he's forced too, or through his own mortality, I can see a lot of trumps henchmen needing to lawyer up. And Once the gloves come off, Ukraine with help from other countries, who fully understand what life under Russian rule was like, won't want to see it return.

And for the US, there won't be any spoils to divide up, because they will have backed the wrong side. American industry that did so well out of Nato, and Europe, is going to find very few orders coming their way, as Europe says, we can't trust you.

Trump has demonstrated his willingness to use pardons freely and without considering ethics. The likes of Witkoff will be looked after - quite possibly following the precedent set by Biden with his pardon of his son.

 

[ainsworth74]

Trump has demonstrated his willingness to use pardons freely and without considering ethics. The likes of Witkoff will be looked after - quite possibly following the precedent set by Biden with his pardon of his son.

Something which a future US Government might wish to consider imposing limits on. Though that seems unlikely unless the rupture is profound when/if democratic norms are restored. I worry, however, that the establishment Democrat party, assuming they do take power again, will be far to timid to do something like that. We've had the Democrat leader of the House today tell us that they won't pursue impeachment of Hegseth:

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) on Monday tore into Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth over his role in a deadly “double-tap” strike on a suspected drug boat in the Caribbean in September, suggesting the attack violated the law and that Hegseth should face consequences.

“It’s already been crystal clear that Pete Hegseth is the most unqualified secretary of Defense in American history. I called for him to be terminated months ago,” Jeffries told reporters in the Capitol. “And now we have real evidence that extrajudicial killings are taking place. That’s the stain on America’s leadership in the free world, which is why our international standing is plummeting.”

Jeffries said he expects Congress to launch bipartisan investigations into the incident in both chambers “in order to determine whether war crimes were committed, and either U.S. law or international law — or both — were violated.”

He predicted that impeachment would be off the table, given the fact that Republicans control both chambers of Congress — and “because Donald Trump will order them not to do it.”

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5628744-jeffries-criticizes-hegseth-defense/

 

[35B]

Something which a future US Government might wish to consider imposing limits on. Though that seems unlikely unless the rupture is profound when/if democratic norms are restored. I worry, however, that the establishment Democrat party, assuming they do take power again, will be far to timid to do something like that. We've had the Democrat leader of the House today tell us that they won't pursue impeachment of Hegseth:

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5628744-jeffries-criticizes-hegseth-defense/

A change of the Constitution will be difficult and contentious - and very high risk. Likewise, though I think Jeffries shouldn't have said it out loud, I agree with his analysis - and also that the focus on impeaching Trump in his first term was an important step in the escalation of the judicial process that's given us a deliberate policy of "weaponisation" of criminal law.

 

[Cdd89]

I hope Europe and other global allies have a plan for if the US abandon Ukraine. Because I fear it's coming after Wormtongue's Witkoff's visit to Moscow and yet again offer a peace plan completely unacceptable to Ukraine

While I agree the leaked peace plan was a joke, what's interesting to me is that Europe's primarily complaint is not the content but rather that they weren't consulted on it.

European partners should propose a peace plan of their own – we don't need assistance from Trump etc to do this, just as we weren't consulted on theirs; and yet we've never done it and come across as bystanders. One could argue it would serve no purpose, but it would at least shift the narrative toward discussing the sort of outcome we would desire.

 

[Annetts key]

European partners should propose a peace plan of their own – we don't need assistance from Trump etc to do this, just as we weren't consulted on theirs; and yet we've never done it and come across as bystanders. One could argue it would serve no purpose, but it would at least shift the narrative toward discussing the sort of outcome we would desire.

None of these so called peace plans are worth the paper they may be written on. Russia has made no changes or concessions at all. And Ukraine is never going to accept the current Russian list of demands. In addition, some of the things Russia wants are under control of European E.U. countries and most are not going to agree to Russian demands.

As time goes on, any leverage that Trump may have had becomes less and less. So I really don't see Ukraine or European countries that support Ukraine ever giving in to Trump.

Also, Russia was offered an off ramp earlier on in the war, but it was not interested.

As to the U.S. administration not consulting other countries, that's normal for Trump. He doesn't care about other countries. And would not want them "interfering". He wants it to be "his" peace plan so he can get a prize.

From what I can see, this war will only end after either Putin dies or is removed from power, or Russia is unable to continue resourcing the war. Remember typically over or around 1000 Russian troops are being killed or seriously injured every day. And they are losing air defence systems and other military equipment at an alarming rate. The Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries, oil and gas pipelines, oil and gas export terminals and the Russian electrical grid, as well as factories and other facilities that supply or support the war are all having an effect.

It's hard to say if their economy will become too weak, or if will be lack of materials due to lack of hard currency or less people being able to be found to fight, or a combination. But at some point Russia will no longer be able to advance, and maybe, at some point later on, Ukraine may be able to force a Russian retreat.

 

[najaB]

We've had the Democrat leader of the House today tell us that they won't pursue impeachment of Hegseth

To be fair, he didn't actually say that they wouldn't want to pursue it, it reads to me as he's stating the reality that it's a non-starter because the GOP has the votes to kill it before it starts.

Also, Russia was offered an off ramp earlier on in the war, but it was not interested.

Russia has always had an off ramp, given that it is a special military operation of choice rather than a war of necessity.

 

[edwin_m]

Replying to the impeachment issue in the Trump thread: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/thoughts-on-the-trump-presidency.280458/page-76#post-7573032

Trump has demonstrated his willingness to use pardons freely and without considering ethics. The likes of Witkoff will be looked after - quite possibly following the precedent set by Biden with his pardon of his son.

It's entirely possible that Trump will throw Witkoff under the bus himself, as he has done with so many of his previous appointments.

 

[35B]

It's entirely possible that Trump will throw Witkoff under the bus himself, as he has done with so many of his previous appointments.

It is possible, though I suspect that Witkoff knows enough about DJT that he'd be relatively safe.

 

[Trackman]

There's been much sabre rattling from the Russians about escalation of the conflict to a nuclear one, however it seems the sabres might be a little rusty:

Russia’s ICBM test fails in mid-launch explosion

Russia has suffered a failed Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) test after a launch at the Yasny range in the Orenburg region ended in an explosion only seconds after liftoff. The missile rose roughly 200–400 meters before detonating in midair and

defence-blog.com

If it's an ICBM, they have to let the US know with details of timings and where it is happening to stop any 'mishaps'.
No doubt the US watched it like a hawk and when they saw what happened burst into laughter.

 

[Cdd89]

None of these so called peace plans are worth the paper they may be written on. Russia has made no changes or concessions at all. And Ukraine is never going to accept the current Russian list of demands

I do agree with you - and said in my post that a European peace plan proposal would arguably be pointless in terms of its primary effects. It's certainly not going to end the war. But regardless of how hopeless the Witoff proposal is, it is at least a proposal that we can discuss - as your very post illustrates.

Therefore, I think the secondary effect of taking control of the narrative cannot be understated. If Europe put out a proposal, the media would be talking about it for weeks. I'm not even saying the proposal has to be potentially acceptable to Putin; indeed, why would he accept worst plans that he's already been offered? But it just needs to exist, in place of the deafening silence currently emerging, as a statement of intent and to make Europe look a little less impotent.

 

[edwin_m]

If Europe put out a proposal, the media would be talking about it for weeks. I'm not even saying the proposal has to be potentially acceptable to Putin; indeed, why would he accept worst plans that he's already been offered? But it just needs to exist, in place of the deafening silence currently emerging, as a statement of intent and to make Europe look a little less impotent.

Europe did put out a plan last week, as a clause by clause re-write of the American (=Russian) one. Doesn't seem to have had much impact.

 

[wilbers]

MSN

Volodymyr Zelensky's aeroplane was targeted by military-style drones as it approached Dublin Airport. The incident happened on Monday night at about 11pm as the Ukrainian President arrived for a meeting with Ireland's prime minister.

If Russia was behind it (even via a proxy), then using drones in Ireland is a bit of an escalation.

 

[Pete_uk]

The SBU have only been and taken out a submarine whilst docked!

Legend's!

 

[ainsworth74]

If Russia was behind it (even via a proxy), then using drones in Ireland is a bit of an escalation.

It certainly is but, of course, Ireland is a neutral nation so outside of any defence agreements. I mean yes if Ireland were directly attacked by Russia we'd hardly let them stand alone but still, officially, this is a matter for Ireland and Russia to resolve alone...

 

[najaB]

The SBU have only been and taken out a submarine whilst docked!

Legend's!

Russia has lost an awful number of naval assets to an enemy with no meaningful navy!

 

[brad465]

Yesterday oil prices dropped below $60 a barrel, driven by a belief a Russia-Ukraine peace deal was imminent and would lead to sanctions being eased. If such a deal did lead to a further decline in oil price, this would be a double-edged sword for Russia: on the one hand lifting sanctions would help their economy, but a lower oil price is very bad for their oil-dependent economy, which combined with the war economy footing coming to an end, is a recipe for hyperinflation. It's for this reason I expect Russia will not only want to resume war very soon after a "peace deal" is signed, but their whole setup means they probably feel they have to:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-moves-lower-ukraine-talks-weak-china-data-2025-12-16/

DENVER, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Oil futures settled at their lowest level since February 2021 on Tuesday amid ongoing jitters surrounding oversupply and as the prospect of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal appeared to strengthen, raising expectations sanctions could be eased.
Brent crude futures settled down $1.64 a barrel, off roughly 2.71%, to $58.92 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $55.27, down $1.55, or 2.73%.

"Brent has dropped this morning to below $60 per barrel for the first time in months, as the market assesses a potential peace deal resulting in additional Russian volumes becoming available and oversupplying the market further," said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah.
The U.S. offered to provide NATO-style security guarantees for Kyiv and European negotiators reported progress in talks on Monday, sparking optimism that an end to the war was closer.
Russia, meanwhile, said it was not willing to make any territorial concessions, state news agency TASS quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov as saying.

The six-month Brent futures spread moved into a contango for the first time since October.
Barclays analysts expect Brent to average $65/bbl in 2026, slightly ahead of the forward curve, due to the expected 1.9 million bpd surplus they see as being priced in already.
“This price decline underscores the structural dynamics of today’s energy market—ample supply and sluggish demand. Unless geopolitical risks or policy shifts intervene, this softness could persist well into next year," KPMG U.S. Energy Strategy Leader Angie Gildea wrote in a note.
Adding to the pressure, soft Chinese economic data on Monday further fuelled concerns that global demand may not be strong enough to absorb recent supply growth, said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore.
China's factory output growth slowed to a 15-month low, official data showed. Retail sales also grew at their slowest pace since December 2022, during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Fears of an oversupply were marginally offset by the U.S. seizing an oil tanker off Venezuela last week, but traders and analysts said a glut of floating storage and a surge in Chinese buying from Venezuela in anticipation of sanctions were also limiting the market impact.

 

[Annetts key]

Yesterday oil prices dropped below $60 a barrel, driven by a belief a Russia-Ukraine peace deal was imminent and would lead to sanctions being eased.

Why would Putin change his view now after not moving one little bit since 2022?

Putin doesn't want a peace deal, he wants Ukraine to surrender. As that's not gong to happen, Putin will blame everyone else and continue the war.

Unless / until Russia is put under huge pressure (much, much more than currently), there will be no ceasefire or peace deal.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Dec 2025 ==

Oh look, on BBC News at Ten tonight, Putin has "doubled down" (my words). Blaming Ukraine for not accepting peace and blaming European countries for causing trouble. Once the Beeb puts the story on their web site, I'll quote it here and provide a link.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Dec 2025 ==

Here's what the Independent has to say:

Ukraine-Russia war latest: Putin calls European leaders ‘little pigs’ in unhinged rant against Kyiv’s allies​

Putin accused West of ‘hysteria’ insisting claims Russia wanted war were ‘a lie’​

Maira Butt & Namita Singh Wednesday 17 December 2025 22:25 GMT

Russian president Vladimir Putin has lashed out at European leaders calling them “little pigs” amid ongoing US-brokered peace talks.

In a bizarre rant against the West, the leader said: “Europe’s little pigs immediately joined in the work of the previous American administration, hoping to profit from the collapse of our country.”


He added that Russia would “liberate its historical lands on the battlefield” or through diplomacy but would achieve its territorial aims in the end. Putin had previously accused Western countries of “hysteria” adding that claims Russia wanted war with Europe were “a lie”.

It comes as Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky ruled out a ceasefire by Christmas, saying Russia is likely to reject a new European-backed peace proposal and that Ukraine must be ready to continue fighting.

Speaking on Tuesday, Mr Zelensky said a final set of proposals would be completed within two days and handed by the United States to Moscow.

He said Kyiv expected the Kremlin to refuse the plan. Russia has already dismissed calls for a Christmas truce, insisting any pause must meet its demands.

Link to source

The Guardian reports:

Putin calls European leaders ‘little pigs’ and says Russia will achieve Ukraine goals by diplomacy or force - as it happened​

Russian leader says aims of its ‘special military operation’ will be met ‘unconditionally’

Putin calls European leaders 'little pigs' as he insists Russia will achieve its goals in Ukraine by diplomacy or force​

Pjotr Sauer
Russian affairs reporter

Meanwhile, Russia’s Vladimir Putin on Wednesday lashed out at European leaders, deriding them as “little pigs”, and said Russia would achieve its territorial goals in Ukraine either through diplomacy or by military force.
Speaking at an annual meeting with the defence ministry, Putin said the aims of what Moscow calls its “special military operation” would be met “unconditionally”.

“If they do not want a substantive discussion,” he said, “then Russia will liberate its historical lands on the battlefield.”

Putin claimed that the previous US administration had “deliberately steered the situation towards an armed conflict”, adding that Washington believed Russia could be weakened or even destroyed in a short period of time.

He then lashed out at European leaders, accusing them of joining in with Joe Biden’s administration. “Europe’s little pigs immediately joined in the work of the previous American administration, hoping to profit from the collapse of our country,” Putin said.

Putin’s hardline comments came as US officials claimed that earlier talks with Ukraine in Berlin had resolved about 90% of the most difficult issues. But major doubts remain over whether the Russian leader is prepared to compromise on his sweeping demands.

Putin has repeatedly insisted that Kyiv cede the remaining parts of the eastern Donbas region still under Ukrainian control – a demand that the White House has at times appeared to endorse, but which Ukraine has flatly rejected. Moscow has also pushed for strict limits on Ukraine’s military, a ban on western troops on Ukrainian territory, and an end to western military support.

The Russian leader on Wednesday also denied that Moscow was planning to invade Nato territory, claiming instead that the alliance had begun preparing for a possible military confrontation with Russia, with a view to 2030.

Link to source

 

[Scotrail314209]

There seems to be so much war rhetoric recently, especially from military chiefs across Europe.

Scaremongering or a warning that something is brewing?

Even the mentions of conscription are starting to worry me too.

 

[Strathclyder]

Oh look, on BBC News at Ten tonight, Putin has "doubled down" (my words). Blaming Ukraine for not accepting peace and blaming European countries for causing trouble. Once the Beeb puts the story on their web site, I'll quote it here and provide a link.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Dec 2025 ==

Here's what the Independent has to say:


Link to source

This from the war-mongering scrote who has plundered the Russian state for decades, not-so-secretly had his political opponents silenced, rigged god knows how many elections and has flung countless numbers of young Russian men into the meat grinder in a expansionist conflict he launched against a sovereign nation.

AKA, yet more BS from the chief gas-lighter & kool-aid distributer of humanity, barring the sentient fart cloud squatting in the Oval Office and the one cosplaying as a MP from Essex, both of whom will drink this swill happily like the little Quislings they are.